SAP and SoftwareONE: Persistent value through pragmatic transformation

After TBR published a special report on SoftwareONE’s place in the software, cloud and IT services ecosystem, we spoke with Pierre-Francis Grillet, SoftwareONE’s global director of SAP Business Development, to learn more about how his firm’s SAP practice competes in an exceptionally crowded market.

 

Three key points stood out to TBR:

  • SoftwareONE’s focus on its core strengths including expertise in SAP, cloud and licensing, which are all crucial in the move to cloud and Everything as a Service, fits well with current trends in the IT services, cloud and software landscape.
  • Emphasizing pragmatic, incremental transformation over broad digital transformations helps SoftwareONE more easily define its value to clients.
  • Grillet and his team understand which cloud platform works best in a client’s environment, and they’re willing to make recommendations, differentiating SoftwareONE from vendors seeking to be multicloud agnostic.

 

Given SAP’s massive on-premises ERP install-base — which totaled 25,000 customers as recently as 1Q22 — the market opportunity surrounding migrations from offerings like SAP ERP Central Component (ECC) to SAP Business Suite 4 HANA (S/4HANA) is vast. As such, my colleague Evan Woollacott notes that S/4HANA is critical to SAP’s ability to achieve its midterm ambition of more than €22 billion in non-IFRS cloud revenue out of more than €36 billion in non-IFRS total revenue by 2025.

 

This goal would bring SAP’s mix of cloud revenue as a percentage of total revenue to over 60% in 2025, compared to a mix of approximately 41% based off SAP’s 2Q22 earnings. Given SAP’s 2Q22 S/4HANA Cloud revenue was just $503 million across 14,500 live clients, the company has a long way to go to achieve its goal. From a services partner perspective, such as SoftwareONE, SAP’s need to accelerate migrations to S/4HANA represents a substantial revenue opportunity, particularly given the inherent complexity associated with these transformations.

 

While it’s true that SoftwareONE will constantly be competing against larger players with scale and smaller players with lower prices, if it persists with a smart, well-refined and well-executed strategy that stays true to the company’s core strengths, it should continue to grow ahead of peers.

 

 

GSI fatigue opens opportunity lanes for SoftwareONE

According to Grillet, clients have grown tired of global systems integrators (GSIs) with massive teams based in low-cost countries doing things cheaply because they can. Instead, clients looking for SAP implementations welcome the chance to work with smaller vendors bringing expertise-led approaches and IP-rich capabilities.

 

While the giant GSIs adequately serve the largest enterprise-scale clients, SoftwareONE has found a sweet spot with the high end of the SMB market and low end of enterprise-scale customers, particularly those overlooked by the global GSIs. With a go-to-market focus and capabilities tool kit aligned around lifting and shifting SAP applications to the cloud and technical upgrades to S/4HANA, SoftwareONE stays industry agnostic while leveraging well-honed software asset management skills and an acquisition strategy that brings in boutique and highly specialized firms.

 

In short, if customers don’t want the hassle of working with a giant IT services vendor but do want SAP experts with experience, SoftwareONE looks like a pretty good choice.

Don’t overthink baby steps

From high-level strategy consultancies to thin-margin VARs, vendors constantly hype their abilities to help enterprises unlock the value of digital transformation. Grillet and SoftwareONE have a refreshingly modest and believable counterproposal: pragmatic, incremental IT and business transformation, with the sober recognition that a change as significant as migrating to S/4HANA and to the cloud needs to be executed in a series of manageable — and financially feasible — steps.

 

In Grillet’s opinion, “S/4 touches everything,” so overcoming hurdles like resilience, security, and interoperability and connectedness should be approached with caution, expertise and realistic expectations. Pragmatic, incremental transformation may not sound as exciting as design thinking-led agile disruptive innovation, but software that doesn’t work is useless, no matter how transformative it could be.

 

“Whenever we are selecting the service provider partner, it has to be the long-term journey, not just to go by project-based or portfolio-based services. But if you want to do innovation gently and new value with more outcome results, we really want to see and we have to make [the service provider] a longtime partner.”

— Executive Director, Banking

 

I think it’s really based on whether they [vendors] take on responsibility. When I’m looking for something, I look for people I trust to work with, and I don’t like it to be sold.It doesn’t matter whether they’re technology vendors or whether they are consultant vendors. So usually, the technology vendors have a better grasp of what our real problem is when we were looking for a solution. I think consultants in the real sense of consultants are usually hired when the board wants to make sure there’s something that they sort of have a grip on it or more control.

Chief Digital Officer, Insurance

Multicloud agnosticism means not knowing what works best

When advising clients on which cloud environment to choose for migrating applications or even a full-on instance of S/4HANA, Grillet said SoftwareONE does not shy away from making specific recommendations, eschewing the industry habit of staying multicloud agnostic. Grillet believes his team has the expertise and experience to evaluate a client’s technology needs and long-term strategy, then recommend the cloud environment that fits best, without regard to SoftwareONE’s alliance relationships with or revenue targets aligned to the three hyperscalers.

 

SoftwareONE cannot claim uniqueness in its aversion to multicloud agnosticism, but the company is definitely among the trendsetters in the broader consulting, IT services, software and cloud space moving toward a greater willingness to partner deeply to better serve specific clients rather than broadly try to please all clients.

Small and smart

SoftwareONE’s SAP practice includes 440 professionals working in 34 countries, performing cloud migrations, S/4HANA conversions and S/4HANA implementations. While not at the scale of the SAP giants, such as Accenture, Atos and EY, that TBR covers quarterly, TBR sees SoftwareONE as smartly leveraging its strengths, including 14-plus years of delivering pragmatic, incremental migrations that help clients with successful transformations.

 

Further, SoftwareONE stays within its lane, expanding its footprint at existing clients and slowly expanding its scope of services without pretending to be industry or functional specialists, a strategy TBR believes will generate steady revenue growth, loyal clients and consistent permission to compete.

 

As noted in TBR’s latest Cloud Ecosystem Market Landscape, vendors across the entire digital transformation spectrum “often like to position themselves as end-to-end providers. Many do indeed offer a comprehensive stack of offerings, but the ‘ends’ largely vary and revolve around each vendor’s core value proposition. While enabling and/or developing components of the IT stack provides a strong use case, vendors’ true value lies in their ability to manage partner ecosystems.” Staying in one’s swim lane and partnering smartly lie at the core of SoftwareONE’s strategy, boding well for sustained growth.

 

“I would probably be sacrificing some technical expertise on the problem solving in order to get internal alignment or buy-in from others who have relationships with that firm. At the same time, those firms [consultancies] are outrageously expensive. So, you have to balance fewer but more important pieces of work versus, you know, the ability to afford help on more projects.”

— SVP, Retail

Cloud partnerships prove even more important than expected in 2022

Coming into 2022, we expected partnerships to be important in cloud, but that was an understatement. From both vendor and partner sides, interest in strengthening cloud partnerships has been palpable.

 

The current macroeconomic uncertainty makes cloud partnerships an even more important factor in cloud growth heading into 2023. Cloud remains a focal point for most customer IT investments, but cloud partnerships can address the growing desire for solutions that are customized to customer requirements and can demonstrate cost-effectiveness.

 

Prediction No. 1: Partners enable growth and stickiness

Principal Analyst and Practice Manager Allan Krans: The cloud market has largely developed in a time of economic expansion. The growth that began in earnest in the aftermath of the 2008 recession has given the leading vendors and cloud market overall a very fertile economic environment. While the U.S. economy is still not technically in a recession, the environment does have a distinct negative tone.

 

Hiring has slowed for many of the largest technology vendors. Inflation levels not seen for decades are impacting the bottom lines of businesses across the board, including in the cloud space. These macroeconomic factors will have an impact, for both cloud vendors and their customer bases. IT spending growth could slow, and layoffs could mean smaller SaaS subscriptions upon renewal. And rising infrastructure and utility costs will force cloud providers to decide between increasing prices or seeing profitability levels decline.

 

It is in the face of all this looming economic uncertainty that the benefits of a partner ecosystem are shining. As vendors are reluctant to expand direct sales teams, partners can help throughout the sales cycle to cost-effectively contribute to revenue growth. Stickiness is even more critical in an uncertain environment, as high renewal rates are critical for both securing revenue and the profitability of the overall business. Many customers will be forced to look more carefully at cost in a tight economic environment, and having a partner to amplify the value of a cloud vendor’s solution can be a determining factor in renewal decisions.

Prediction No. 2: Value-add partners in software development and managed services become the focus in 2022

Allan: So far in 2022, TBR’s expectation that software development and managed service provider partners would be a focus has not only been confirmed, but the trend has been more pronounced than anticipated. Our prediction was primarily driven by the partner programs, which cover the thousands of smaller partners participating in the major cloud ecosystems.

 

On the software development side, marketplaces are the best litmus test for the activity of those smaller partners, and activity has been brisk during the year. Marketplace transactions are being mentioned as a growth driver by a number of ISVs, including Zscaler, CrowdStrike and Informatica. This also means revenue streams are growing for the marketplace providers, including Salesforce, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft and Google Cloud. Competition for ISV titles is getting even more heated, with Google Cloud reportedly cutting its revenue-sharing fee significantly during the year in order to sweeten the financial incentives for its software development partners.

 

Beyond the developments focused on smaller partners, some of the major names in IT have also illustrated the growing focus on software development during the year. Oracle’s cloud strategy had originally focused on an entirely “Red Stack” of the company’s own technology, but Oracle recently announced partnerships to make database offerings available on both Azure and AWS cloud platforms. Oracle will make its MySQL Heatwave cloud database available through the AWS platform.

 

Oracle will also make its fully managed database offerings running on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) directly available from the Azure platform. This offering in particular preserves the performance and cost advantages Oracle claims for database and OCI offerings but broadens the availability through the partnership with Microsoft.

 

 

Prediction No. 3: Partner activities will be more important than traditional designations

Allan: The stress on traditional partner program designations continued in 2022. During the year we saw systems integrators packaging and selling their IP as a cloud subscription, a vastly different business for firms like PwC. Traditional reseller vendors like CDW are offering AWS managed services to clients. And even the cloud providers themselves are building out professional service capabilities as both a growth avenue and a value-add for clients.

 

Amid this business model fluidity, we saw greater flexibility being offered from cloud providers like AWS and Microsoft. AWS introduced a new Paths partner framework, featuring five dedicated tracks for partners — Software, Hardware, Training, Services and Distribution — each with its own set of resources and benefits.

 

AWS also began offering Partner Marketing Central, a self‐service portal available to partners, regardless of their dedicated path, for launching and managing marketing campaigns and educating workforces. Microsoft, for its part, renamed its partner program and refocused the designations not around the business model of the partners, but on the solution areas they achieve competency within.

 

 

 

 

Predictions is an annual TBR series examining market trends and business changes in key markets. 2022 covered segments included cloud, telecom, devices, data center, and services & digital.

Native PaaS services delivered via hybrid architectures shape the cloud market in 2022

Vendors innovate in PaaS, a cornerstone of investment for more mature enterprise customers looking to control costs, build client-facing solutions and generally drive business outcomes, post-migration. Throughout 2022, cloud service providers (CSPs) have continued to recognize that PaaS services are only as effective as the architecture they run on, which for many customers, includes multiple different clouds, edge locations and data centers.

 

Despite the negative impacts that inflation and unfavorable currency translation are having on vendor financials, the pace of PaaS investment will progress through 2023 as vendors look to compete in a saturating market and address what customers so clearly demand: choice, flexibility and freedom from vendor lock-in.



Prediction No. 1: Hybrid remains the new norm

Senior Analyst Catie Merrill: It is no secret that hybrid cloud is emerging as the preferred IT delivery method for enterprises, with scalability, choice, and diversification of assets among the leading benefits. Over the past several months, we have had conversations with customers across industry verticals highlighting this trend, and according to TBR’s 1H22 Cloud Infrastructure & Platforms Customer Research, 24% of respondents plan to move toward an entirely hybrid cloud environment in the coming years.

 

Throughout 2022, global economies have been grappling with heavy inflation and a strong U.S. dollar, and ongoing uncertainty around the economy may stall some hybrid implementations through the remainder of the year. However, our findings also indicate that unlike in the early days of cloud, cost is becoming less of a determining factor when choosing to move workloads off premises. As a result, many enterprises will progress with migrations, despite high prices, to supplement their data center investments and get the right solution tailored to their specific business goals.

 

In today’s market, hybrid cloud has largely come to encompass multicloud, another factor that has impacted adoption through 2022 is the tight labor market, including the ongoing skills shortage in IT. While the labor market does appear to be softening slightly, customers will still have to weigh hybrid cloud adoption and migrations on a workload-by-workload basis to make sure they have the necessary skills and expertise to address their requirements once in the cloud, which for many customers will mean having resources trained across at least three cloud platforms.

 

This trend bodes well for some of the large systems integrators (SIs) that have a pool of certified resources to help customers migrate and spin up workloads across disparate architectures. As a result, we can expect demand for cloud professional services, particularly at the advisory and implementation layers, to increase.

Prediction No. 2: Bringing cloud to the customer — distributed cloud moves from experiment to niche delivery method

Catie: Vendors’ pace of innovation in so-called distributed cloud solutions — those that extend public cloud services to customers in data center, private cloud and/or edge locations — has ramped up faster than initially expected. In particular, our assessment of Oracle is holding true, as in the past two quarters the vendor has taken significant steps to adapt its infrastructure portfolio to different delivery methods, including competing clouds, evidenced by recent launches like Compute Cloud@Customer and Oracle database services on both Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure.

 

Meanwhile, it is largely business as usual for more established hybrid vendors like IBM, Microsoft and Google Cloud, with these companies investing in additional feature sets and applicable architectures for their solutions in a race for the control plane layer with offerings like Red Hat OpenShift, Azure Arc and Google Anthos. As we noted in our first prediction — rising demand for hybrid cloud — we expect vendors will continue to make investments like these and release offerings that address a leading pain point, infrastructure lock-in.

 

 

Prediction No. 3: IaaS is about scale; PaaS is about differentiation

Catie: IaaS saturation persists, forcing vendors to build out capabilities at the PaaS layer to increase client share of wallet. Such capabilities include low-code and no-code development, integration, data management, cloud brokerage tools, marketplaces, and databases, among others. As leading hyperscalers uniquely draw on their infrastructure establishments to cross-sell PaaS solutions, competitive friction with pure play PaaS vendors may increase.

 

However, in conversations with enterprise buyers, we continue to find that customers generally favor some of the more feature-rich, vendor-neutral offerings on the market from players like Red Hat, Informatica and Snowflake; through the remainder of the year and into 2023 we will be closely tracking how the hyperscalers invest in their PaaS portfolios and how buyer perceptions of hyperscale PaaS and pure play PaaS shifts.

 

 

 

 

Predictions is an annual TBR series examining market trends and business changes in key markets. 2022 covered segments included cloud, telecom, devices, data center, and services & digital.

Automation enables business continuity and offsets macroeconomic-pressured human-centered implications

In 2022 the war in Ukraine has added another layer of complexity and implications for vendors to account for in staffing and human resources (HR), something many have been dealing with since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The macroeconomic pressures caused by the war have also led vendors to prioritize employee experience in their business continuity plans. These macroeconomic pressures have also compelled vendors to reconsider the distribution of their global delivery models, over-reliance on a single country, and the true opportunity to scale the integration of automation in service delivery.

 

Two hundred days into the war and three quarters into 2022, vendors continue to rethink best practices in HR as supply chain disruption and labor shortages persist, while new threats including a potential global recession emerge, putting the promise of automation to its greatest test yet.

 

Prediction No. 1: The robots will hire each other, complicating the people part of global delivery

Boz Hristov, Principal Analyst: The trend is not going to be an overnight “turn the switch” kind of phenomenon, but instead will create long-tail opportunities and implications for ecosystem participants. With automation now table stakes, vendors and enterprises are facing the next phase of developing and adopting intelligent solutions that are less about technology architecture and more about recognizing patterns and recommending outcomes.

 

Rising wages pressure vendors to increasingly rely on intelligent automation solutions to ensure service quality and meet shareholder promises. While benefits have yet to trickle through vendors’ P&Ls at scale, early indicators suggest that improving contract pricing paired with the use of automation will enable vendors to develop better visibility into their staffing and profitability models as they minimize the need to use people for mundane tasks.

Prediction No. 2: Get paid for what you do, not for where you live goes global, with business model and business culture implications

Boz: The trifecta of the tight labor market, war in Ukraine and looming recession has challenged legacy HR policies and compelled vendors’ leadership to seek alternative routes to retain talent as attrition continues to pressure the very existence of their business models that are centered around quality and continuity.

 

The need to strike the right balance between onshore and offshore headcount has been dictating vendors’ global delivery strategies since the dawn of outsourcing as many continue to rely on the pricing arbitrage offered by low-cost locations. Accounting for the emergence of nearshore markets including Turkey and Egypt could present a short- to medium-term solution for vendors to leverage, especially if the war spills over beyond Ukraine. Doubling down on building on-site resources helps vendors offset potential geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe, but this could trigger financial risks, especially as onshore talent wages are several times larger than offshore rates.

 

Regardless of how long the war lasts, diversification will remain the watchdog for vendors for the next decade and beyond. While vendors maintain relatively diversified global footprints, India remains the go-to destination for the majority of vendors seeking talent. If the government of India picks a side against Western allies, this could cause vendors to further re-evaluate their business continuity plans. And just as vendors pivoted toward remote delivery when the pandemic began, we believe ramping up automation will allow vendors to decrease their reliance on India as a global delivery hub and possibly provide them with the necessary solution to combat the potential development of new clusters of state economies.

 

 

Prediction No. 3: Software developers defecting to TikTok challenge IT services vendors’ talent models

Boz: Similar to the previous two trends, this one has also held true throughout 2022 and will accelerate for the foreseeable future but with certain caveats largely depending on the pace and longevity of a global recession.

 

As legacy IT services vendors continue to hire in bulk, contenders across the spectrum, from McKinsey & Co., Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the Big Four on one end to hyperscalers building their services arms and new tech platforms like Tesla and TikTok on the other end are constantly vying to build a right-skilled bench, resulting in job-hopping among new recruits.

 

Striking the right balance between scale and skill while accounting for new business and delivery models will also test vendors’ innovative recruitment and retention practices as economic outputs begin to slow down and news about tech industry layoffs start to appear in the headlines.

 

 

 

 

Predictions is an annual TBR series examining market trends and business changes in key markets. 2022 covered segments included cloud, telecom, devices, data center, and services & digital.

5G and edge computing remain top focus areas for telecom industry in 2022

5G has been the primary focus in the telecom industry thus far in 2022. Communication service providers (CSPs) in key countries, especially the U.S. and China, continued their aggressive, nationwide public network deployments of the technology while a broad range of CSP and non-CSP entities participated in the nascent private 5G market opportunity.

Edge computing also gained momentum in the telecom industry in 2022, with select telcos such as Verizon building out edge computing environments to support their vRAN initiatives, and hyperscalers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Azure and Google Cloud Platforms building out metro and far edge sites at an accelerating rate.

Revenue growth from 5G and edge computing remains tepid thus far in 2022, but new use cases for these technologies are likely to emerge and scale as the digital ecosystem evolves.



Prediction No. 1: Supply-demand imbalance delays pace of 5G market development

Supply chains remain a challenge in 2022, especially for sourcing certain components such as semiconductors. But overall, the supply chain recovered over the course of the year. The ongoing zero-COVID policy in China as well as geopolitics remain a risk, but aside from a major event occurring, the supply side of the ICT industry should continue to normalize. The new focus areas in supply chains going forward are supplier diversification, friend shoring and resiliency.

Prediction No. 2: Hyperscalers scale out edge cloud

Hyperscalers have been active in the edge computing market in 2022, especially in the metro and endpoint device domains. Hyperscalers are still trying to figure out an economically and technologically feasible way to scale far edge infrastructure to support their growth initiatives. Ultimately, TBR believes hyperscalers will establish deep partnerships with shared infrastructure owners, such as towercos and data center REITs (real estate investment trusts), to site their edge stacks closer to endpoints.

 

 

Prediction No. 3: Government becomes leader in 5G spend among nontelecom verticals

Activity in the government domain to leverage private 5G networks has been significant in 2022, especially at the national level. Government entities are exploring a broad range of use cases for 5G in the disaster recovery, public safety and first responder, and defense segments of the market, and CSPs are playing a role in many of these engagements. The U.S. Department of Defense’s $600 million 5G contract remains the largest publicly disclosed contract to date globally for private 5G networks, and it will continue to support growth in the private 5G market over the next few years.

 

 

 

 

Predictions is an annual TBR series examining market trends and business changes in key markets. 2022 covered segments included cloud, telecom, devices, data center, and services & digital.

2022 was a good year for federal IT, but will 2023 be as growth-friendly?

Federal fiscal 2022 (FFY2022) has been a good year for the federal IT market, even as IT spending was somewhat impeded by lingering effects of the pandemic, the rise of macroeconomic inflation, budget uncertainties and delays, and the ongoing disruptions to supplies of computing components.

 

The Biden administration’s federal IT budget request for FFY2022 was roughly 18% higher than for FFY2021; the actual growth figure will likely be closer to 10% after the final budget is enacted. Cloud-centered IT modernization, cybersecurity enhancement, and accelerating adoption of digital technologies (e.g., analytics, artificial intelligence, machine learning) featured heavily in federal IT outlays in FFY2022 and will again in FFY2023.

 

Prediction No. 1: Increased U.S. federal cloud spending upends the IT services market

Senior Analyst John Caucis: In the federal enterprise IT realm, TBR observed a significant ramp-up of activity on behalf of traditional federal systems integrators (SIs) to enhance alliance ecosystems in 2021, particularly with commercially centric cloud vendors. Commercial cloud providers bring to the table not only cloud technologies but also the best practices learned implementing cloud in commercial instances. Federal SIs know the rules of engagement when navigating the usually onerous federal technology procurement environment.

 

Federal agencies are expected to spend over $11 billion on cloud technologies in FFY2022, 30%+ higher than the total value of federal cloud outlays in FFY2021 and 70% higher than cloud spend in FFY2020. Double-digit increases in IT spending are expected across civilian agencies in FFY2023, and spending on defense-related technology will also expand at a healthy pace — with the growth driven in large measure by cloud-related investment.

Prediction No. 2: Vendors prepared for flattening defense budgets and accelerating civilian spend will see early gains

John: Trepidation about defense spending cuts was largely dispelled by the Biden administration’s budget request of $722 billion for the Department of Defense (DOD) for FFY2022, representing a $17 billion increase from FFY2021. For FFY2023, the administration has requested $773 billion in total defense outlays, including cybersecurity-related spending north of $11 billion, up from $9.8 billion in FFY2021.

 

DOD spending on commercial cloud solutions is also expanding, as the Pentagon establishes enterprise IaaS and PaaS environments and lays additional groundwork for general-purpose clouds in the coming years. Investment in analytics to enhance combat-related decision making also continues to expand.

 

In the civil arena, the Biden administration requested $65 billion in IT spend for FFY2023, up 11% over FFY2022, including a similar 11% increase in civil cybersecurity outlays.

 

 

Prediction No. 3: Investment in advanced digital technologies will accelerate across all federal sectors

John: Digital solutions will underpin federal IT modernization initiatives, and agency outlays to update and enhance their IT infrastructures vis-à-vis digitally transformative technologies will expand in FFY2023 and beyond.

 

For example, in June 2022 the Office of Management and Budget and the General Services Administration announced that $100 million will be earmarked within the Technology Modernization Fund (the fund to support to federal IT modernization projects) to improve citizen experience using digital technologies.

 

The Biden administration’s executive order mandating the expansion of cybersecurity in 2021 drove the aforementioned growth in cyber-related allocations in the FFY2022 budget and will continue to spur accelerating investment to secure federal IT systems in FFY2023. The White House and federal agencies have issued similar directives regarding expanding the adoption of AI technologies across the federal government. The DOD’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center saw its budget expand from $89 million in FFY2019 to over $278 million for FFY2021.

 

Federal spending on big data solutions and services was $6 billion in FFY2021 and could surge to nearly $8 billion by FFY2023.

 

 

 

 

Predictions is an annual TBR series examining market trends and business changes in key markets. 2022 covered segments included cloud, telecom, devices, data center, and services & digital.

Will IT services revenue grow despite the competitive talent environment?

Revenue expansion in the IT services sector continues, driven by vendors’ investments in talent and portfolio expansion and emphasis on strengthening relationships with customers and alliance partners.

While political and macroeconomic challenges such as rising inflation and the natural gas crisis are factors that might create pockets of slower growth, TBR expects the overall IT services market to continue to grow in the coming quarters. IT systems have become corporate utilities that enable clients to transform business models, contain costs and accelerate growth, and TBR expects demand for IT services around digital transformation to remain elevated. For the rest of 2022, attracting and managing talent will remain vendors’ core challenge to successfully growing revenue and managing costs.



Prediction No. 1: Focus on talent management, refined during the pandemic, will recede in a post-pandemic environment

Senior Analyst Elitsa Bakalova: Talent management remained a core priority and challenge for IT services providers, and none of the standard HR approaches changed during the first nine months of 2022 as vendors strived to capture rising demand for digital transformation.

As TBR predicted at the end of 2021, attracting, retaining, upskilling, promoting and rewarding talent are all necessary HR motions and further accelerated during the past three quarters. There is an ever-increasing need for people as vendors build their benches to capture opportunities and support revenue growth. New job creation and the gradual alleviation of pandemic pressures have encouraged employees to pursue career-building opportunities, leading to elevated employee attrition of 20.8% in 2Q22 compared to 16% in 2Q21, 14.1% in 2Q20 and 17.6% in 2Q19, on average, for the 31 vendors in TBR’s IT Services Vendor Benchmark. While vendors continue to recruit via traditional methods, more are investing in reskilling and upskilling as well as launching educational initiatives.

Finding and keeping employees in the IT services market is increasingly difficult as talent poaching intensifies for a finite number of resources and companies’ bookings remain high. Vendors continue to place a premium on skilled resources, offering sizable signing bonuses and higher wages. Increasing labor costs due to wage hikes and robust retention bonuses along with rising facility, travel and communication expenses are pressuring IT services vendors’ profitability.

Prediction No. 2: The decarbonization shift from promises to actual results opens a massive opportunity for IT services

Elitsa: This prediction remained true during the first nine months of 2022 as vendors TBR identified as decarbonization leaders continued to invest in developing their services and solutions portfolios to support clients’ sustainability initiatives and address their internal decarbonization-related pledges. As we anticipated, IT services vendors are increasingly bringing clarity to decarbonization by harnessing emerging technologies such as blockchain as well as established analytics and AI solutions.

According to TBR’s first Decarbonization Market Landscape, “Although some firms have been active over the last few decades around developing and acting on decarbonization strategies, many were induced — be it from competition, stakeholders or regulatory evolution — to improve, update, revisit or outright announce new net-zero targets, which in recent years have become somewhat of a comprehensive measure of a firm’s overall decarbonization efforts. … With a wider set of buyers relying heavily on technology to measure and manage emissions as well as advisory services to assess, plan and verify new initiatives, professional services vendors will continue to be key players in the enterprise decarbonization space. … Vendors must take care to continue to learn and stay up to date on reporting standards and regulatory change, supporting both internal and commercial efforts.”

 

 

Prediction No. 3: Blockchain winter ends and 5G & edge bloom in 2022, bringing new enhanced revenue streams to IT services vendors

Elitsa: While IT services vendors have increasingly announced investments in professional and managed services to enable adoption of blockchain, 5G and edge solutions, the trend is not mainstream across all 31 vendors in TBR’s IT Services Vendor Benchmark. However, select vendors have invested in expansion in the segments to benefit from diversified revenue streams.

As TBR expected, partnerships between IT services vendors and technology providers have been a key lever for increasing the value of vendors’ solutions and expanding their portfolio and client reach. For example, IBM partnered with Telus to deploy an edge computing platform across Canada, which expanded the reach of IBM Cloud Satellite by running the distributed cloud solution on Telus’ 5G network. Telus will leverage IBM Consulting services to implement AI and automation solutions, including products such as Cloud Pak for Network Automation. Atos partnered with Verizon to integrate Atos Computer Vision into Verizon’s multi-access edge computing network. This integration will bring video analytics services that utilize AI to customers and will provide Verizon with access to Atos’ BullSequana Edge servers to further advance 5G solutions.

During 2022 vendors have also leveraged acquisitions to expand their capabilities. For example, Atos acquired U.K.-based Ipsotek in 2021, adding software and IP to its solutions offerings to expand its edge AI/machine learning offerings and introduce video analytics solutions through Ipsotek’s VISuite. In 2022 IBM acquired U.S.-based Sentaca, a telecom consultancy and systems integrator, which strengthened IBM Consulting’s capabilities around helping communication service providers integrate with cloud-native services and architectures to better enable 5G for their customers.

 

 

Predictions is an annual TBR series examining market trends and business changes in key markets. 2022 covered segments included cloud, telecom, devices, data center, and services & digital.

Turmoil in IT services: Talent, org charts and acquisitions

Gimme 3 — Insight Interview with TBR’s Subject-matter Experts

In TBR’s new blog series, “Gimme 3 — Insight Interview with TBR’s Subject-matter Experts,” Principal Analyst Patrick M. Heffernan discusses our latest and most popular research with our analyst team.

This month Patrick chats with Senior Analyst Elitsa Bakalova about the IT services market, including how vendors take on talent challenges and internal organizational change.

 

Patrick: Talent in the IT services space seems to be a top-of-mind problem, and in the IT Services Vendor Benchmark you report that attrition expanded again in the first half of this year. Even with vendors hiring more and increasing pay, will talent remain a headache for the remainder of 2022 and into next year?

Elitsa: People are the key resource for IT service delivery, so talent has been and will remain the No. 1 priority for IT services providers during the coming years. Finding the right skills to deliver digital transformation services increases vendors’ chances to fulfill demand and accelerate revenue growth. But attracting and keeping skilled talent are particularly difficult when there is a shortage of skills and those skills come at a higher price that not all vendors can pay. Employee attrition has been on the rise since the beginning of 2021, with two forces driving it: increasing demand for digital transformation and employees’ pursuit of their own happiness.

Enterprises that planned to start digital transformation activities or were in the early stages of transformation in 2020 slowed down their initiatives due to the uncertainty caused by COVID-19. Those enterprises, along with new ones, are now accelerating their digital transformation initiatives and looking for support from IT services providers. Vendors need talent to address the pent-up demand, and some are hiring in bulk, adding thousands of people across the pyramid, often heavily weighted on freshers. Naturally there is rising competition between IT services providers to attract as many resources as possible from universities and poach talent from peers to reach their hiring goals for the year. The jobs supply is high, and I think it will remain that way in the near term.

Turning to employees’ need to be happy and satisfied with life, career and family, when pandemic pressures began to ease in early 2021 some employees started looking for a career change that would likely lead to an increase in pay and job satisfaction. At the same time, vendors began offering new jobs that employees already trained and certified on new skills saw as a great opportunity for career progression with another IT services provider.

Patrick: In one of the benchmark’s quarterly focus sections, you highlighted internal reorganizations: IBM Services splitting into IBM Consulting and Kyndryl, Atos working on splitting into two separate entities, and NTT DATA splitting off the domestic Japanese business. Which vendor will be next?

Elitsa: It is hard to say which vendor will be next, but we can speculate based on our analysis of vendors’ performance and position among peers with similar business models that have undertaken internal reorganizations. Revenue growth and profitability improvement drive IT services vendors and when the two are not in concert, vendors begin to look for ways to adjust portfolios and change internally to reverse the negative effects. Both IBM and Atos were experiencing revenue growth and profitability challenges due to commoditization and low profitability of traditional IT services activities while other parts of their businesses such as digital, cloud, cybersecurity, consulting and application modernization services were growing profitably. Those two vendors sought to improve performance by restructuring declining and less-profitable business units, giving them the flexibility to align strategies and investments with specific markets in which they operate.

 

In our IT Services Vendor Benchmark we see some vendors in the same position. DXC Technology, T-Systems and Unisys have been repeatedly going through internal reorganizations so they can be less reliant on traditional IT services and improve operational efficiency through cost optimization, changes in global service delivery models, and increased use of automation. Despite these efforts, we have yet to see material changes from the reorganizations because those three vendors continue to see declining revenues and razor-thin profitability. Maybe at some point instead of divesting noncore assets, as DXC Technology has been doing, these vendors will split themselves into separate entities — one around traditional IT services and one around services tied to next-generation solutions — similar to IBM Services and Atos.

 

Patrick: Looking at go-to-market trends, you mentioned six of the 31 benchmarked vendors made notable acquisitions in the first half of 2022. Do you think acquisition activity will pick up in the next few quarters?

Elitsa: Near-term, we don’t see a major change in acquisition activity. While a global economic slowdown may cause pockets of tight spending on acquisitions for some less financially stable IT services providers overall, the overall acquisition pace will remain unchanged. Uncertainty typically makes for a good spending environment for consultancies, and the financial services industry continues to face technology disruption, which service vendors aim to capitalize on by investing in industry and technology expertise to drive planning and strategy discussions. Acquisitions are a way to quickly build expertise, and I think vendors will be willing to pay a premium to gain skills.

 

As we see from this month’s blog, it’s been a challenging time for IT services vendors. We’ll be keeping an eye on the market over the next few months to see if macroeconomic factors force any changes in these trends or the IT services vendors’ strategies. Additionally, each quarter we’ll examine the strategies, performance and relative positioning of 31 of the largest IT services vendors as part of our Professional Services research stream. The research also covers go-to-market trends and breakdowns by service line and geography, and an exhaustive set of financial metrics.

 

 

Why are Deloitte’s, Accenture’s and TCS’ revenues per hyperscaler practice much higher than the benchmarked average?

Gimme 3 — Insight Interview with TBR’s Subject-matter Experts

In TBR’s new blog series, “Gimme 3 — Insight Interview with TBR’s Subject-matter Experts,” Principal Analyst Patrick M. Heffernan discusses our latest and most popular research with our analyst team.

This month Patrick chats with Principal Analyst Bozhidar Hristov about our latest cloud ecosystems research, including why Deloitte’s, Accenture’s and TCS’ revenues per hyperscaler practice are much higher than the benchmarked average.

 

Patrick: Why are Deloitte’s, Accenture’s and TCS’ revenues per hyperscaler practice much higher than the benchmarked average?

Boz: Deloitte’s, Accenture’s and Tata Consultancy Services’ (TCS) investments in cloud and overall IT services capabilities enabled each of them to drive conversations aligned to and/or enhanced by core value offerings. For example, Accenture has managed a close relationship with Microsoft since the launch of joint venture Avanade in 2000; Avanade evolved into Accenture Microsoft Business Group in 2019.

 

Acquisitions also bolstered Accenture’s scale, particularly around Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud capabilities supporting the Accenture Cloud First agenda. Additionally, acquisitions help the company maintain a strong foothold in the market and trust with stakeholders as well as capitalize on its household name. In sum, Accenture has done everything it could, relentlessly.

 

In contrast, TCS has pursued a strictly organic strategy to build scale, relying on its low-cost execution offerings and investments in developing certified and skilled talent. Through distinct business units, TCS has also demonstrated commitment to all three hyperscalers — AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform — enabling trust between TCS and hyperscaler partners.

 

Deloitte is a bit of an outlier, with the firm’s success largely rooted in its business compliance relationship and access to C-Suite decision makers, supported by ongoing investments in talent and portfolio offerings. Deloitte has built scale through both organic and inorganic means as the firm tries to balance investment priorities of individual member firms with globally run cloud initiatives.

 

Deloitte’s relationship with Microsoft is rather unorthodox as the firm audits the tech giant. However, Deloitte is able to circumvent these requirements while staying compliant by providing customer support rather than joint go-to-market efforts. We estimate Deloitte generated over $500 million in Microsoft Azure-related revenue in 2021. Deloitte also provides a use case for the remaining Big Four firms, which must also balance audit relationships with tech advisory and implementation positions.

 

Graph: Cloud Professional Services Market Share 2026

 

Patrick: I keep hearing about industry clouds; do you have a breakdown of each vendor’s performance by industry?

Boz: With enterprise buyers viewing industry specialization as table stakes, the need to apply cross-industry use cases will elevate the role of SIs as orchestrators. Building out solutions for today’s problems with an eye toward future opportunities will help vendors capitalize on their investments, but only if they are able to maintain service delivery quality, trust and transparency.

 

The resurgence of industry clouds is testing services vendors’ mantra around vendor agnosticism as they try to balance commitments to their technology partners with addressing industry-specific client pain points. Industry cloud is far from a new phenomenon, with vendors employing industry-based cloud strategies since 2014, when SAP cited plans to target 25 industries.

 

Though industry-based clouds found early success, TBR believes uptake was limited as clients were largely focused on horizontal needs as they deployed productivity-based suites. Given the maturity of cloud today, the need for industry-based configurations has increased as adopters pursue custom solutions set against an industry backdrop.

 

Further, the nuanced nature of industry-based requirements and compliance standards faced by industries, such as financial services, healthcare and government, necessitate vertically tailored offerings. As a result, technology vendor investments around industry-based cloud have accelerated in the last couple of years.

 

TBR will continue to monitor and analyze vendor performance and ecosystem evolution around industry clouds. We hope to include industry revenue breakouts for IT services vendors by hyperscaler practice area in the next 18 months. But before we can publish our analysis, we need to have confidence in the data and complete all steps in the insights intelligence cycle, from collection through vetting, validating and publishing.

 

Patrick: I’m not seeing all of the IT services vendors TBR covers. Are there plans to add more vendors to this report?

Boz: Cloud Ecosystems Market Landscape started with 10 vendors across IT services and consulting spectrums, with the goal of providing a fair comparison across portfolio offerings, go-to-market strategies and performance and to set the stage of the market. We will continue to expand the vendor roster, provided there is enough activity and implications across the three hyperscaler practices.

 

In this month’s blog we’ve highlighted three different strategies well-suited to these IT services vendors’ strengths and positions in the market as well as trends pressuring everyone to change how they partner, particularly in a volatile, yet lucrative market.

 

Not everyone can or should try to emulate Accenture, TCS and/or Deloitte, but lessons learned around how and why they partner with hyperscalers could be valuable in any IT ecosystem.

 

 

Demand pull and cost push: Two sides of the inflation coin

A nonfactor for decades, inflation is now parsed into demand pull and cost push

Pricing analysts across the tech industry will have to take a new look at the mix of inflationary pressures, sort those pressures by cost push and demand pull, and adjust their own business muscle memory for both short- and long-term instability stemming from rising energy costs, destabilized supply chains and increased component demand.

 

To excel at textbook economic analysis, you are told to look at one variable, “all other being equal,” or ceteris paribus. But the real world never works that way. The real world becomes particularly alarming for economists when their textbook explanations are not borne out by what is happening.

 

Such a situation occurred in the late 1970s. Inflation (and unemployment) increased from 7.5% to 10.4% from Jimmy Carter’s presidency to Ronald Reagan’s presidency, and then chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Paul Volcker began raising interest rates to choke off inflation. The term “stagflation” was coined to explain the inexplicable. As we seek to understand inflation today, we have a better parsing of the multiple factors that can drive inflation.

Demand pull inflation: The classic definition

Demand pull inflation is classic 20th century thinking. It loosely corresponds to “too many dollars chasing too few goods.” Traditional Keynesian economic thinking asserts that this situation means the economy is overheating. It asserts the solution is for central banks to raise interest rates to slow demand and bring it in line with current supply. Low unemployment is expected to be a compatible condition to this kind of economic overheating, and with the slowdown, labor market pressure will likewise abate.

Cost push inflation: A fancier definition for resource scarcity (and potentially disruption)

Cost push drove the high inflationary cycle of the 1970s. Oil price shocks, driven by OPEC production decisions, triggered choke points across the entire economy. Companies had little recourse but to pass along price increases, or to “push” the costs onto the consumers at a time when unemployment was high.

The current blend of demand pull and cost push

Today demand pull influences are seen more on the consumer side, with record-high savings during the pandemic shutdown, plus consumer purchases and housing prices spiking due to various government relief payments. Similarly, unemployment remains low, and certain skilled positions, especially acute in the tech sector, remain hard to fill.

 

Textbook moves to raise interest rates to slow the economy are being deployed to cool this economic overheating. Whether it results in a soft or hard landing of the economy on more stable ground remains open to, at times, contentious debate, given cost push inflation is also rampant.

 

Cost push is readily apparent in any purchases of basic staples. Energy and food are about as basic as it gets, and there are no simple solutions to those issues. Energy is a heavily regulated industry, with public support for moving away from fossil fuels mounting, especially among younger individuals. Food prices are being hit by both the energy cost increases and the supply chain disruptions resulting from the conflict in Ukraine. Neither fuel nor food disruptions are likely to abate soon, and the food issues around wheat and the attendant products manufactured from wheat are likely to worsen before they improve.

 

If that news is not dire enough, energy supply chain constraints do not appear to be a short-term blip on the way to resuming normal productive capacity. A Grid News article lays out in great detail the supply chain constraints — rising demand, conversion of refinery capacity to renewable diesel, and shuttering of older domestic refinery capacity during the pandemic —impacting the refinery segment.

 

Further, expansion of U.S. refinery capacity is unlikely given regulatory and environmental risk, as well as a fundamental shift in financial outlook. The article expects gas prices to rise over the summer, which is a normal occurrence, but the article is not optimistic about an increase in refining capacity in the U.S. due to cost, environmental regulation, and long-term industry outlook as public sentiment grows for green alternatives.

What does this mean for the technology industry?

Within the tech sector multiple inflationary influences apply pressure. Rising energy costs will often be remediated with temporary surcharges. Amazon indicated in the company’s last earnings call that it was considering such measures. This surcharge can work for finished goods; however, component shortages triggering demand pull inflationary pressures similarly have a blend of cost considerations.

 

Some cost spikes will work themselves out as supply chains react to pandemic-induced disruptions. Other cost spikes will persist until productive capacity increases, given how many more finished goods outside of the technology space itself consume embedded components in smart devices.

 

For infrastructure manufacturers, this means year-to-year price declines in the “faster, better, cheaper” trendline, predicated on Moore’s law for decades, should at least temporarily flatten out. TBR analysis of the silicon shortages suggests these challenges will be ameliorated in the next two to three fiscal quarters.

 

The other pressure and risk consideration will be the impact on long-term pricing agreements for managed services and “as a Service” subscriptions. A backlog of recurring revenue priced with lower inflation forecasts will likely apply margin pressure to developing “as a Service” revenue streams of pure play companies and independent operating units within multiline businesses. Pricing adjustments may be baked into new agreements and renewals moving forward, but the runoff of booked contractual commitments could impact profit margins. Noncurrent bookings will be a telling indicator.

 

Services firms basing project fees on billable hours should be reasonably well insulated given hourly rates can change in real time to adjust for rising labor and fringe expenses.

 

As stated, pricing analysts will have to take a new look at the mix of inflationary pressures, sort those pressures by cost push and demand pull, and adjust their own business muscle memory for both short- and long-term instability rising energy costs, destabilized supply chains, and increased component demand brings to bear on their respective market segments and the monitoring of their commercial offers.