Conducting an Opportunity Analysis the TBR Way

Opportunity analysis is one of the most critical and complex forms of research. It frames the big bets that technology, telecommunications and professional services companies make.

What Is Opportunity Analysis?

Opportunity analysis is the process of conducting an external evaluation of a given market sector(s) to assess the viability of pursuing a business opportunity in the sector and to determine the best-fit strategic actions to take in pursuit of that opportunity. The process is usually oriented around a company’s overall and/or business strategic and financial objectives.

 

Opportunity analysis is a broad concept. An opportunity analysis might influence an entire shift in corporation direction or shape the launch of a specific product and/or service for a specific subset of customers. There are multiple dimensions that define the context for an opportunity analysis, including:

 

  • Time Horizon: Is it a 1-, 3-, 5- or 10-year opportunity? Longer-term than that?
  • Business Segments: Does this opportunity relate to a current business line and/or new business line? Is it corporatewide?
  • Products and Services: What are the implications for the other products and/or services that the company offers
  • Geographies: What regions and/or countries does this apply to?
  • Customer segments: Does this opportunity impact existing and/or new customers? What industries do those customers play in? What is their core business? What are the firmographics of those customers?
  • State of Pursuit: Are we already pursuing this opportunity at all? If so, how, and at what level? What decisions have already been made?

 

Depending on the scope of the opportunity analysis, the specific data and insights you’re aiming to gather may vary. Broadly speaking, a comprehensive market opportunity analysis would typically consider elements such as the following:

 

  • Total size and forecast growth of the addressable market opportunity
  • Profile of the current customers in the market
  • Macroeconomic and socioeconomic factors that impact the market opportunity
  • Competitive landscape, including level of competitive fragmentation and key competitors’ market share, financial performance and strategic positioning
  • Business models and strategies used to serve the market, including aspects such as:
    • Product and service offerings
    • Go-to-market strategies
    • Monetization and pricing models
    • Service delivery models
    • Supply chains
    • Availability of talent
    • Client delivery strategies
    • Acquisitions and alliances opportunities

Why Is Opportunity Analysis Important?

Opportunity analysis is important for many interrelated reasons. At the most fundamental level, opportunity analysis is critical to ensuring that the strategic decisions your firm makes align with corporate financial and strategic objectives. Without an opportunity analysis, the firm lacks external inputs and risks making decisions based on internal silos.

 

Opportunity analysis provides quantitative, objective, outside-in data and insights, ensuring that the actions your firm undertakes are validated by the market. Opportunity analysis helps you consider a strategic action and/or investment across each of the following critical vectors:

  • Revenue: What is the potential revenue and growth associated with this opportunity? When will that be realized? How likely are we to achieve those goals?
  • Cost: What are the real capital expenses and ongoing operating costs that we will incur by undertaking this opportunity? What are the opportunity costs?
  • Risk: What are the risks associated with this opportunity (e.g., people, governance, environmental)? Are we comfortable with those risks? How do we minimize those risks?

 

By evaluating the opportunity across each of those key vectors and leveraging outside-in data and insights, you are also able to objectively conduct an opportunity gap analysis. The opportunity analysis may reveal an unquestionable market opportunity, but that still raises the question: Is your firm well positioned to capitalize on that opportunity? By building a full picture of the opportunity, you can conduct a SWOT analysis of your business across all of the elements of the opportunity to understand where you may have gaps that need to be addressed to pursue the opportunity.

The 4 Key Types of Opportunity Analysis

Building an opportunity analysis involves many different workstreams and interrelated projects. In our experience, however, opportunity analysis efforts most commonly take the following forms:

 

  • Market Forecasting: Projections of opportunity size and velocity, and market trajectory for an offering or market segment, based on analysis of customer plans, competitor motions and ecosystem needs
  • Strategy Design: Assessment of a vendor’s market opportunity and recommendations on long-term strategy positioning based on inside-out and outside-in customer and competitor analysis
  • Acquisition Screening: Identification, prioritization, analysis and recommendation of a short list of potential acquisition candidates for pre-diligence evaluation and support, based on target fit, value add and strategic alignment
  • Alliance Screening: Identification, prioritization, analysis and recommendation of a short list of strategic alliance partners based on vendor target fit, value add and strategic alignment

How to Conduct a Market Opportunity Analysis

Structuring a Market Opportunity Analysis

The approach and research methodologies used to conduct a market opportunity analysis vary by type of project. Each type of opportunity analysis outlined above requires slightly different tools and methodologies. In this section, we provide an overall framework for how to conduct a market opportunity analysis, as well as some specific guidance on each type of project.

 

A market opportunity analysis, like any effective analysis, should start with a hypothesis. A hypothesis forms a point of view that will be validated or refuted by the analysis. The hypothesis should focus on your company and/or business unit’s key financial and strategic objectives. The hypothesis should be derived from a critical problem or challenge the company is facing in pursuing a financial or strategic objective.

 

For example, perhaps a key objective for your business is to “expand revenue growth internationally.” A problem while pursuing that objective might be: “We lack brand awareness in western Europe, which is our top-priority geographic market for expansion in the next five years.” That naturally lends itself to an opportunity hypothesis. This could look something like, “If we made a strategic acquisition, we would expand our brand awareness and drive cross-selling opportunities that would grow our market share in Germany, France and the U.K. from 10% to 20% by 2025.”

 

Developing a hypothesis is easier said than done. There will likely be a lot of internal debate, meetings, decision-making tollgates, and other interactions that need to take place to form that hypothesis. Perhaps you need to do some research before undertaking the opportunity analysis research to formulate that hypothesis.

 

Once you have your hypothesis, it’s time to frame out your opportunity analysis. The first step is to take the opportunity analysis dimensions we outlined above and evaluate your hypothesis across each of those areas. This will translate your problem statement and hypothesis into a structured framework that can be evaluated in your research. Using our example from above, this might look like:

  • Time horizon is two to three years (2025)
  • Scope is companywide from a portfolio perspective, focused on three geographies (Germany, France, U.K.)
  • Covers all portfolio products and services
  • All target customers that we serve in our ideal customer profile
  • Currently operate in these markets but lack brand awareness

 

An opportunity analysis is starting to take shape. The next step is to determine the key opportunity analysis questions you would need answered to either refute or validate your hypothesis. This comes from brainstorming and prioritization. For our hypothesis example, key questions might be:

  • What is the addressable market size, serviceable available market, and serviceable obtainable market and forecast growth for our offerings in those regions?
  • What is the vendor market share of that opportunity?
  • What competitors are playing in those markets today? What strategies are they undertaking to pursue growth? How effective are those strategies at delivering on those growth objectives?
  • What are customers looking for in those regions?
  • What is the current perception of our company in those regions?
  • What are the available alliance partners and/or acquisition targets that we could pursue in those regions?

 

Are these starting to look like questions that could be fodder for a research project? Good, because that’s the next step: conducting outside-in research on the market, competitors and customers to answer those questions. For that step, you may choose to conduct your research with internal resources and/or partner with an analyst firm or other third-party market research providers.

Opportunity Analysis Research Methods

The methods we use for opportunity analysis vary based on the focus of the project. Projects typically will incorporate financial modeling, secondary research and primary research (interviews and surveys). We’ll use the example outlined thus far to illustrate how these approaches are put into action. This example includes elements of market, competitor, and customer analysis, as well as alliance and acquisition partner screening.

 

For the market sizing and forecasting piece, we have a six-tiered financial modeling methodology that incorporates public data, secondary research and primary research. If you subscribe to research from an analyst firm, you may have access to some off-the-shelf data that can help here as well.

 

We typically build initial estimates using both top-down and bottom-up methodologies. With top-down methods, we seek to estimate overall addressable market size. With bottom-up methods, we start with vendor-specific revenue data and build upward to a total market size forecast. Building models requires stitching together multiple different sources, as well as making and documenting assumptions.

 

The second element of this project is a competitive landscape and customer analysis. For the competitive analysis, we would conduct an overall assessment of the company’s peers, drawing on public sources such as their websites, annual and quarterly reports, newsrooms, brochures, offerings collateral, and related documents. The goal of the competitive landscape analysis is to understand what vendors are playing in the geographies we’re pursuing, and to what degree.

 

Customer analysis would rely on a survey and/or interviews with in-market customers and prospects, where you would seek to gather customer insights on vendor performance, perception, unmet needs, and selection considerations. Customer analysis can also provide a view of the competitive landscape overall. The outcome of this type of analysis would be an objective evaluation of the competitive and customer landscape, and an opportunity gap analysis of how your company fits.

 

For the alliance and acquisition partner screening, we use a structured methodology to identify in-market candidates, score those candidates based on fit, and profile them for further diligence. Typically, we start by using a resource such as PitchBook or Crunchbase to filter for companies in a particular market that we are focused on. For example, in this case, we would filter for other companies that provide the same or overlapping products and services and are located in Germany, France and/or the U.K.

 

The resulting list of companies forms our “long list” of candidates. We would then establish 10 to 15 other criteria to use in evaluating these candidates. What we’re looking for here is signals of performance. Things like number of customers, portfolio, acquisitions, alliance partners, year founded, revenue and growth, headcount, recent deal wins and other related factors are often good criteria. We gather this data on each company, build a scoring model to score each company based on that data, and generate a set of scores and a prioritized short list of partner and/or acquisition targets. That short list then informs the strategic actions that can be taken to pursue relationships with those companies.

When Will PC Demand Rebound?

COVID-19 drove dynamic changes in both the supply and demand sides of the PC market. During the onset of the pandemic, PC OEMs across the industry forecasted robust reductions in demand, tempering production targets and inventory orders. However, in the latter half of 2020, it became apparent that these demand forecasts were materially lower than the real demand for PCs.

Sudden Increase in Demand Challenges an Already Constrained Supply Chain

The pandemic forced lockdowns and closures of educational institutions and corporate offices, driving learn- and work-from-home trends that made PCs a necessity. The same lockdowns and closures caused supply chain constraints both upstream and downstream of the PC OEMs. Component manufacturers raced to ramp up production and shipments of their goods as new orders came in rapidly due to suddenly higher demand, which created similar challenges for logistics companies.

 

To make matters worse, PC OEMs and companies in most other industries around the world leveraged a growing amount of transactional data to optimize supply chains around the just-in-time (JIT) workflow methodology, which aims to reduce costs by manufacturing and delivering goods to meet supply without creating a surplus. As such, a JIT approach relies heavily on demand forecasting and limits organizations’ flexibility. When PC demand forecasts jumped suddenly, this created myriad challenges throughout the entire supply chain. PC order backlog began to build as demand outpaced supply and PC prices increased.

 

This imbalance also drove PC OEMs to increase production targets as they raced to grow their share in the demand-rich market environment. This increased stress on the supply chain while also raising supply chain costs with respect to componentry and logistics. At the time, PC OEMs were able to largely pass these costs on to the consumer, as price competition was almost nonexistent due primarily to constrained supply as well as government stimulus payments that helped support consumer and commercial demand.

As the Market Saturated, Vendors Were Left with Glut of Inventory

Over time, though, supply chain conditions improved and PC order backlogs and lead times started to normalize. Market demand was largely satisfied, and PC OEMs were stuck with a glut of inventory in both the factory and the channel. This marked an inflection point in the PC market as supply now outpaced demand.

 

PC OEMs now had a single priority: clear excess inventory, while PC buyers became inundated with a wide variety of available offerings across the market. Naturally, this led to a more price-competitive market environment as price elasticity in the market increased rapidly after being quite negligible for several consecutive quarters. As such, PC margins began to fall in parallel with PC unit shipments. Excess channel inventory levels spurred aggressive price competition, particularly in consumer PC, and channel sell-in demand deteriorated. These factors led to massive top-line contractions among PC OEMs, necessitating the rebalancing of resource spend and, in many cases, layoffs to mitigate operating margin erosion.

 

As excess inventory is digested and as channel inventory levels normalize, TBR expects a slight easing of price competition in the PC market, which will positively impact margins, all else being equal. However, average life spans of today’s PCs range from three to eight years, and many new PCs were purchased during the pandemic. Additionally, as we transition to a post-pandemic world, new macroeconomic uncertainties, including high inflation, rising interest rates and fluctuating foreign exchange rates, have come to light, reducing consumers’ and organizations’ willingness to spend. For these reasons, TBR expects PC demand will remain low until the next PC refresh cycle, improving only incrementally as macroeconomic uncertainty eases.

So, When Will PC Demand Rebound?

TBR strongly believes a material rebound in the PC market will only begin in conjunction with the next major refresh cycle. However, this is dictated by several factors.

 

The optimistic case: Macroeconomic conditions improve and the major PC refresh cycle begins in the back half of 2023.

  • Inflation in the U.S. cools due to the Federal Reserve’s prior interest rate hikes.
  • The Federal Reserve ceases Federal Funds Rate increases and begins rate reductions.
  • Consumer sentiment increases and corporate budgets loosen.
  • Stabilization of countries’ central bank rates reduces foreign exchange rate volatility.

 

The pessimistic case: Macroeconomic conditions worsen and the major PC refresh cycle is pushed back.

  • Inflation in the U.S. remains elevated.
  • The Federal Reserve continues to increase the Federal Funds Rate.
  • Consumer sentiment remains weak, potentially worsening, and corporate budgets remain tight, possibly contracting even more.
  • Foreign exchange rate volatility remains high.

Other Factors That Could Influence PC Demand

Sunsetting of Windows 10

Windows 10 support will end on October 14, 2025. Customers with machines running Windows 10 will be motivated to upgrade to a machine running Windows 11.

Killer Application: AI

The use of AI has proliferated in line with the exponential rise in data generation. Additionally, the buzz around generative AI has gained significant momentum, piggybacking on OpenAI’s recent release of ChatGPT. Today, most AI workloads are run in the data center; however, PC OEMs are rapidly investing in the development of machines purpose built to run AI workloads at the edge. As more AI applications are developed for PCs, an increasing amount of AI workloads will transition from the data center to the edge, heightening demand for new and more capable PCs. However, the impact of this development largely depends on the development rate of AI applications for PCs as well as their use-case validation.

Geopolitics

The war in Ukraine has had a net-negative impact on PC demand in the EMEA region. Moreover, friction between the U.S. and China, primarily as it relates to Taiwan — debatably the most important country in the PC supply chain — has caused uncertainty among PC OEMs and customers alike. Should U.S.–China or Russia–Ukraine relations deteriorate further, it is more likely that the refresh cycle will be pushed back, primarily regarding corporate budgeting.

More Comprehensive PC Support and Maintenance Offerings

PC services fetch larger margins than PC hardware sales. As such, PC OEMs continue to strengthen their portfolios of support and maintenance offerings, which generally extend the life span of PCs. Should consumers and organizations choose more extended warranties and support services, the PC refresh cycle will be pushed back.

 

Considering these possible developments and their respective impacts on the market, TBR currently predicts that the PC market will return to quarterly year-over-year revenue growth sometime around the second quarter of 2024.

To learn more about our expectations for PC demand rebound, watch our recent webinar “Navigating Soft Demand and Margin Erosion: Insights into Devices Vendors’ 2022 Revenue Challenges” for free now

 

The Big 10, the 200, and Accenture’s Ever Successful Alliance Strategy

Update: This blog post was updated June 5, 2023, to reflect the change from The Big Six, the 150, and the Future of Accenture’s Alliances, originally published in November 2018, to The Big 10, the 200, and Accenture’s Ever Successful Alliance Strategy. 

Accenture Masters the Value of Relationships

The ecosystem proves invaluable for participants to explore, especially as vendor consolidation and technology stack simplification become top of mind for buyers that are increasingly pivoting their digital transformation programs toward digital optimization. Demonstrating value requires trust within the ecosystem, and Accenture’s success in recent years provides a robust framework for what it takes to earn and maintain that trust.

What Has Changed?

  • Accenture has grown from being a $40 billion company in 2018 to an almost $63 billion company today.
  • Ten of Accenture’s top alliance partnerships currently generate 50% of the company’s business. In 2018 Accenture’s top six relationships enabled it to capture 25% of the company’s business.
  • Workday, ServiceNow, Adobe and IBM have joined SAP, Oracle, Salesforce, Google, Amazon Web Services and Microsoft as Accenture’s top strategic partners.

What Has Stayed the Same?

  • Accenture claims to maintain a technology-agnostic strategy, with the company’s roster now spanning over 200 alliance partners.
  • Accenture Ventures remains the conduit to forging innovation-centric relationships with startups, thus providing a system of checks and balances for Accenture’s portfolio without the additional risk that comes with investing in R&D at scale — an important move, especially during economic downturns.
  • Because Accenture maintains its household-name status among IT buyers, many IT services peers and tech vendors seek to emulate or pursue a relationship with the company.

 

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How to Partner with Accenture

Who Does Accenture Partner with?

Technology providers, both large and niche, compete for Accenture’s attention when seeking to establish long-term alliance relationships.

What Types of Clients Does Accenture Target?

Accenture is primarily focused on servicing the large enterprise first and expanding its roster of Diamond clients, which help the company generate over $100 million in annual sales. While Accenture also targets the upper midmarket, these clients are often looking for better-priced solutions.

What Should Partners Bring to Accenture?

Deploying price-competitive “as a Service” offerings is key for partners to maintain the interest of both Accenture and targeted clients as Accenture tries to offset the use of premium-priced consultants with the use of automated project management solutions.

How Do Culture and Organizational Structure Impact Partnering?

Accenture also focuses on service execution through its well-oiled command-and-control culture, which shapes the company’s expectations — best commercial construct possible, executed with rigor and discipline — of its partners. Further, Accenture comes from a position of strength and often sets the terms of its relationships with smaller vendors. Lastly, joint ventures and business groups are frameworks Accenture pursues with key alliances.

How Can Partners Separate Themselves From the Pack?

While Accenture manages such relationships, mostly with large technology providers to demonstrate trust within the ecosystem, vendors seeking to capture Accenture’s attention can approach the company by taking on additional risk and investing — from both a human and financial standpoint — in establishing business groups. These relationships are often set through top-down executive and management oversight.

What to Expect in the Next 5 years

  • Accelerated adoption of generative AI in portfolio development and service delivery will force Accenture to align the company’s expectations with its partners’ sales and go-to-market motions.
  • Accenture will increasingly rely on standardized offerings to move into the midmarket and upper-midmarket spaces, thus creating opportunities for smaller vendors to partner with the company.
  • Twenty of Accenture’s more than 300 alliance partners will enable it to generate over 80% of the company’s revenue. TBR believes Accenture will likely grow at a 5.87% CAGR from 2022 through 2027 to reach $83 billion in annual revenue, with the range between the lower and upper confidence intervals, all things being equal, expected to be between $70.1 billion and $106 billion.

 

The bottom line: Even for a behemoth like Accenture, success depends on being a good player in the technology ecosystem. Maintaining service quality backed by internal knowledge management and skilled staff retention will remain key to protect trust within the ecosystem.

Layoffs, AI and Optimization: Exploring Top Trends of the Chaotic Digital Landscape

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PTC Liveworx Showcases Evolving Alliances and Trends in Partnering

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SoftwareOne Acquires Beniva in ServiceNow Expansion Play

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What Is Driving Wireless Revenue Growth for U.S. Operators?

Despite the relatively mature smartphone market, the majority of U.S. telecom operators were able to sustain year-to-year wireless revenue growth in 4Q22. Though inflation is limiting discretionary spending, operators are withstanding these pressures as wireless connectivity remains essential to most consumer and business customers. However, operators are being impacted by certain customers seeking lower-priced service plans to accommodate their tighter budgets, which is spurring operators to introduce new entry-level service plans, such as Verizon’s Welcome Unlimited plan.

Why Federal IT Contractors and Commercial Tech Firms Need to Align

In this month’s Gimme 3, Patrick chats with TBR Federal IT Services lead and Senior Analyst John Caucis on the U.S. federal IT operations and alliance activity of market newcomers Accenture, CGI and IBM

How Important Are Vendor Ecosystems in Network Services Deployment, and How Are They Evolving?

For prime contractors, managing an ecosystem of subcontractors is a constant challenge. These challenges are prompting vendors to reevaluate their subcontractor ecosystem strategies, driving change in the makeup of subcontractor ecosystems as well as the approaches used to manage partners

Changes in MI/CI Observed by TBR

The biggest change for CI/MI (competitive intelligence/market intelligence) in 2023 is the intensification of the “do more for less” mandate. Doing more for less has always been part and parcel of the CI/MI experience, but it’s particularly true in 2023.