U.S. Mobile and Broadband Market Outlook: Convergence, M&A and AI Drive Operator Growth

U.S. operators are expanding their mobile and broadband strategies as convergence becomes increasingly important to customer growth and retention. Recent acquisitions are accelerating fiber expansion and reshaping competitive positions, while fixed wireless access continues to gain broadband share and cable operators use competitively priced mobile services to strengthen customer relationships.
 
Pricing and retention pressures are prompting operators to simplify plans, target underpenetrated customer segments and increase emphasis on customer lifetime value. Additionally, operators are adopting AI to improve operations efficiently, while pursuing longer-term revenue opportunities tied to AI infrastructure connectivity. These developments are influencing revenue growth, profitability and capital investment across AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, Comcast, Charter and the broader U.S. telecom operator market.

In the below TBR Insights Live session, TBR Senior Analyst Steve Vachon shares exclusive analysis of U.S. mobile and broadband market developments shaping operator strategies, including key insights from TBR’s latest U.S. Mobile and Broadband Operator Benchmark. Additional topics discussed include:

  • The role of convergence, fiber expansion and M&A in reshaping competition across the U.S. mobile and broadband markets
  • The impact of evolving pricing and retention strategies on subscriber growth, average revenue per account and customer lifetime value
  • How operators are using AI to improve operational efficiency while pursuing new revenue opportunities from AI infrastructure connectivity
  • The impact of market trends on operator revenue growth, profitability and capex through the remainder of 2026 and beyond

 
This TBR Insights Live session is available on demand on our YouTube channel. Visit this link to download the presentation’s slide deck.
 
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TBR Insights Live sessions are held typically on Thursdays at 1 p.m. ET and include a 15-minute Q&A session following the main presentation. Previous sessions can be viewed anytime on TBR’s Webinar Portal.

Trust at Speed: EY’s Mobility Practice Is a Catalyst for AI-era Workforce Transformation

Earlier this year EY hosted more than 250 people from over 115 companies and 20 countries at the EY Global Workforce Conference in Rome. Over three days, TBR spoke with EY leaders such as Gerard Osei-Bonsu, Global People Advisory Services Tax leader; Maureen Flood, Global People Advisory Services Tax partner; and David Rooney, EY Germany partner, as well as human resources leaders from large and small companies and representatives from EY’s technology partners. The following includes details from the event as well as TBR’s ongoing analysis of EY, people advisory services, and consultancies.

Speed and trust anchor EY’s Mobility growth opportunity

Speed and trust equal momentum. From the opening presentation through every main-stage speech, panel discussion and breakout, EY leaders repeatedly came back to this formulation to reinforce the event’s core message: In an AI age, trust separates good from bad, success from failure, adoption from resistance. EY’s own research supports this formulation. The firm’s 2026 Mobility Reimagined Survey found that “high-trust mobility functions are 1.9 times more likely to report speed in deploying to new markets, 1.7 times more likely to report speed in policy decision-making, and 1.6 times more likely to get significantly positive ROI from their mobility investments.”
 
Gerard Osei-Bonsu, Global People Advisory Services Tax leader, described speed as quicker answers and faster decisions allowing changes at speed, although many companies remain more reactive than proactive. He said building trust requires strategic integration, operational effectiveness and satisfying employee experiences, all rooted in reliable data and technology. And critically, “speed without trust fails.”
 
Osei-Bonsu’s framing of speed and trust informed seemingly every other EY professional’s presentation and resonated with the clients TBR spoke with during the event (as well as EY’s leaders’ remarks during the firm’s Global Analyst Summit, which was also held in May). A few EY leaders and EY clients described a plethora of unreliable technologies and vendors in the Mobility and People Advisory Services space that are generating uncertainty around policies, risks and AI.
 
This counterpoint to EY’s trust narrative creates, in TBR’s view, an excellent environment for EY’s global workforce strategy, connecting mobility, payroll, immigration, rewards, workforce planning and technology, to continue growing. As the trusted adviser bringing speed, reliability and governance, the practice should experience ongoing revenue acceleration and remain among the strongest components of EY’s tax, audit and consulting portfolios.

Microsoft remains the technology backbone of EY’s Mobility strategy

Echoing last year’s event in Barcelona, Spain, EY’s strategic alliance with Microsoft permeated many of the presentations, use cases and discussions, with EY professionals reinforcing that the firm’s Mobility solutions are, almost exclusively, built on Microsoft’s platform. EY’s mobility, technology and industry expertise, orchestrated on Microsoft’s platform, provides EY’s clients with improved employee experiences across a range of mobility issues and journeys.
 
Critically, according to multiple EY partners, the firm’s tight alliance with Microsoft enables faster innovation of both EY’s proprietary solutions and Microsoft’s platform. A Microsoft leader attending the conference summed it up as “cocreated transformation, built-on experience and developed trust.” An EY leader noted that the firm delivers services around data and AI “at speed and with trust” baked in, lending EY “credibility, global scale and proven outcomes” that peers and competitors would struggle to replicate. Osei-Bonsu noted that “none of us have the blueprints” for everything, making technology alliances critical to EY’s success. He added that within the Mobility space a diverse set of players and ecosystem partners rely on EY and Microsoft to provide a kind of “centrifugal, gravitational” force powered by EY’s combination of workforce expertise, data, governance, technology and AI-enabled delivery.
 
In TBR’s write-up of the event last year, our assessment of Microsoft as EY’s most-strategic partner included a hedge that “EY noted expectations that other technology alliance partners, including ServiceNow, will become increasingly strategic to Mobility.” Discussions in Rome show Microsoft remains EY’s predominant technology alliance partner, perhaps even more so than a year ago, leading TBR to believe the EY-Microsoft partnership continues to underpin Mobility and provides a client-zero use case EY can share with clients as well as an example, within EY, of the advantages of partnering tightly and nearly exclusively with a technology provider like Microsoft.
 
TBR continues to see Mobility and People Advisory Services as catalysts for change within EY, further evidenced by Microsoft’s role in the Mobility practice. (Note: In May EY and Microsoft announced a $1 billion-plus, five-year initiative, including integrated EY teams and Microsoft forward-deployed engineers focused on scaling enterprise AI.)

EY brings CHROs deeper into M&A by connecting people, tax and technology

In an M&A-focused breakout session, Flood and EY colleagues discussed challenges around including talent management within a typical M&A process. Flood commented that human resources leaders often get left out of the loop during due diligence, potentially lowering the value of an acquisition (by increasing onboarding and assimilation expenses or failing to see red flags), echoing a sentiment TBR has heard from chief technology officers and IT directors lamenting the costs needed to fit an acquired assets technology into an existing environment.
 
On a positive note, Flood said the chief human resources officers (CHROs) at EY’s clients more frequently have a seat at the M&A table for workforce value creation and workforce integration, although typically only at companies already focused on changes to their people and organization, not just their tech. In TBR’s view, EY has a well-established brand around M&A and, notably, divestitures, and can leverage that experience and credibility to consult around the people aspects, not simply the technology and financials.
 
The firm’s HR Mobility Tax practice, for example, can play a more significant role in transaction evaluation and due diligence, provided EY’s clients fully appreciate the breadth of EY’s services beyond traditional M&A. In TBR’s view, greater adoption of AI by EY and the firm’s clients will, because of the transparency-enhancing nature of AI, accelerate broader consideration of human resources challenges and opportunities during M&A engagements, boost exposure and boost revenue for EY’s Mobility practice. CHROs will not make the final purchasing decisions, but EY will help them to increasingly be expected at the table.

Payroll software: EY’s Trojan horse for scaling IP

In a special session with TBR, Sheri Sullivan, Global Payroll Operate leader, and EY professionals discussed EY’s bet on developing a software platform designed to “demystify” payroll. Sullivan explained that humans frequently serve as the bottleneck in payroll processes, creating an opening for a trusted, auditable AI-enabled solution. With multiple trusted and accurate data sources, AI can generate useful payroll analysis and manage payroll systems.
 
As customer zero for the software, EY has been learning the limitations and seeing the benefits, all of which Sullivan and her team have begun to bring to clients. As of the Rome conference, EY’s client list for this AI-enabled product remains small, and the firm continues to test different commercial models, with the expectation scaling would begin in earnest before the end of 2026. In TBR’s view, even a relatively small client base and modest revenue stream from a payroll services platform could be significantly disruptive within the firm and the market.
 
While learning to perfect selling software from within a professional services firm, the payroll practice could be demonstrating to other parts of EY how to adopt, transform and monetize IP. TBR recognizes EY has been in the software-selling business for a couple of decades, but not at scale and not in the AI age. If that were to change, payroll services would be a likely catalyst. Across the broader market, every single company runs payroll. A trusted services provider, with a legacy brand around audit, tax, governance and risk, and enabled by proven AI, could displace smaller competitors, particularly among large clients that already work with EY. In short, TBR looks forward to hearing soon that EY’s global payroll services practice has become the firm’s fastest-growing revenue line.
 
One critical aspect of this event, as noted by TBR in previous years, has been EY’s near refusal to sell itself or ask attendees to explicitly describe their experiences and relationships with EY.
 
But EY did not present this capability as a customer-zero use case that clients could buy. Instead, EY partners stressed that the firm focused on Mobility as having evolved beyond logistics to include talent development, upskilling and adjusting the entire firm to new skills demands: Mobility within EY as part of improving the firm (and quietly conveying to clients “You could do this, too.”).

EY turns trust into an advantage in an uncertain workforce technology market

EY’s 2025 Barcelona message aged well, but in TBR’s view, mobility has progressed from being human-centric and tech-enabled to trust-dependent, AI-scaled and demonstrably business-critical. EY can increasingly combine employee experience, managed services, regulatory expertise, and its deepening alliance with Microsoft to demonstrate that trusted data and AI can deliver measurable outcomes in this space.

TBR walked away from the event with five themes:

  1. The need to connect Mobility within a company to the company’s business overall echoed a decade-plus of consulting advice to CTOs and IT directors to be part of the business and not simply a cost center. EY has been hammering home the lessons learned from those technology consulting engagements and helping CHRO and tax executive clients become better internal business partners.
  2. AI is a tool, not an answer. The week prior to the Rome conference, TBR attended EY’s Global Analyst Summit in New York and heard repeatedly that AI serves a purpose in an organization but cannot be the answer to every business problem, despite the relentless hype since the release of ChatGPT. As a firm, EY has a compelling and mature AI message.
  3. Unreliable technology, too many vendors, and growing uncertainty in the Mobility and broader People Advisory Services space open tremendous opportunities for a trusted, proven Mobility provider, such as EY. And in Rome, it was not just EY leaders making the case but also clients. During one breakout session poll, only 47% of respondents said their technology platforms are “reliable.” The opening for EY is clear.
  4. An EY software solution for payroll could significantly disrupt the payroll services market while helping EY overall become more adept at running a software practice within a professional services firm. TBR has seen some of EY’s peers fail at precisely that challenge, but EY’s leaders in this effort spoke knowingly about the mines scattered across the space while also bursting with passion for solving payroll problems with an EY software tool. Watch this space.
  5. Immigration issues show no signs of abating in 2026 or beyond, providing more opportunities for EY to bring a mix of tax and consulting services to a growing number of clients. Several conference sessions highlighted immigration’s role in enabling access to talent, supporting workforce strategy and navigating future workforce challenges. As AI threatens to upend employment across a number of tech jobs typically associated with low-cost locations at the same time enterprises realize they lack much needed in-house AI talent, immigration challenges may morph in new ways, boosting demand for a trusted adviser.

EY remains ambitious about its revenue targets for People Advisory Services, and TBR’s assessment from 2025 still rings true: “Companies keep recruiting, hiring, paying, rewarding, moving, repatriating, retiring and hiring in an endless loop … [so] absent the worst possible global political and economic scenarios, including a drastic curtailment of global mobility, TBR believes that ambition is perhaps a bit too modest.”
 
Technology and macroeconomic trends favor EY’s Mobility practice. Perhaps just as significantly, so do trends across professional services, including AI adoption, business model disruption, commercial model shifts, and an all-around recognition that the largest consultancies need to change to meet clients’ changing demands and AI-enabled expectations. For the last three years, TBR has heard from both EY leaders and EY clients that the firm’s Mobility practice is already a catalyst for that change.

5G’s Next Act Is About Monetization, While 6G Builds on the 5G Foundation

5G moves from coverage to economic discipline

The telecom industry is entering a more disciplined phase of mobile network investment. Much of the early 5G buildout in developed markets is complete, and operators are now prioritizing capacity, efficiency and monetization over nationwide coverage. TBR expects global communication service provider (CSP) investment in 5G infrastructure to grow only incrementally, driven primarily by fixed wireless access (FWA), 5G-Advanced and 5G standalone (SA), while initial commercial 6G deployments could begin as soon as 2029. The transition is an evolution as operators seek to extract more value from existing 5G assets while preparing those same networks to support 6G.

FWA leads, but 5G SA remains the monetization bottleneck

FWA remains the clearest source of net-new 5G revenue. According to Ericsson’s June 2026 Mobility Report, there are 175 service providers globally offering 5G FWA, and TBR projects more than 400 million residential and commercial premises will be covered by 5G FWA by the end of 2029. FWA subscriber growth is prompting operators to add dedicated capacity, spectrum and network optimization as the excess mobile capacity that supported early FWA deployments is consumed.
 
The larger challenge is 5G SA. Of approximately 390 CSPs with commercial 5G, only about 90, or 23%, had launched 5G SA as of June 2026. This slow migration limits operators’ ability to monetize new capabilities such as network slicing, RedCap (Reduced Capability) and ultra-low-latency services. Commercial slicing is expanding into premium mobile, public safety, FWA, transportation and live events, but direct revenue remains minimal as most services are bundled into higher-tier plans.

5G-Advanced and AI-RAN create a bridge to 6G

Rather than triggering another broad hardware replacement cycle, 5G-Advanced will emphasize software, Massive MIMO and AI-enabled optimization. For example, AI for RAN is emerging as the first commercial AI-RAN opportunity, using AI to improve channel estimation, beam management, traffic forecasting and energy efficiency. Most deployments remain proofs of concept or field trials in 2026, with initial commercial deployments expected in 2027 and more meaningful vendor revenue beginning in 2028 and beyond. Nokia estimates AI-RAN could improve spectral efficiency by more than 2x by 2028.
 
These investments also establish the technical foundation for 6G. 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project) Release 20 standards, expected in 2027, will continue 5G-Advanced development while studying 6G architecture, spectrum, AI integration and integrated sensing and communication (ISAC). 3GPP Release 21 is expected to establish the first formal 6G specifications, with final protocols in March 2029. TBR expects 6G to rely heavily on software upgrades to existing 5G radio and core infrastructure, supplemented by new spectrum, radios, accelerated computing and edge infrastructure.

6G broadens the operator opportunity beyond connectivity

The most important 6G shift will be commercial, not generational. ISAC can turn communications networks into sensing platforms capable of identifying location, velocity, elevation and moving objects, creating opportunities in drone detection, border security, transportation, industrial automation and emergency response. Importantly, operators do not need to wait for 6G as usable ISAC solutions can leverage 5G-Advanced and 5G core, with trials already underway and commercial deployments expected to begin in 2027.
 
National security could become an especially important catalyst for 6G as governments seek better ways to monitor lower airspace, where drones can evade traditional radar systems. ISAC can reuse much of the existing cellular infrastructure, including sites, spectrum, transport and some radios, but applications such as drone detection will require better elevation-domain coverage and investments in beamforming, sensing software, signal processing and edge computing. This creates incremental RAN investment opportunities while potentially allowing operators to monetize sensing data alongside distributed AI inference, network intelligence and APIs.
 
The commercial model remains uncertain. CSPs could operate sensing services themselves, while governments and militaries may deploy private ISAC systems that are at least partly co-located with commercial networks. Either model expands telecom infrastructure beyond carrying traffic toward networks that can also observe and interpret the physical environment.

TBR perspective: 6G will reward operators that finish the 5G job

TBR believes the path to 6G runs directly through unfinished 5G work. Operators that expand 5G SA, improve spectrum efficiency, commercialize differentiated connectivity and build programmable, AI-ready networks will be better positioned for an economical 6G migration. FWA will remain the near-term revenue anchor, but longer-term value will increasingly depend on whether CSPs can turn AI, sensing and network capabilities into standardized services that enterprises and governments can easily buy. The transition to 6G is about proving that operators can finally monetize the capabilities 5G was designed to enable.

Exploring KPMG’s Role in Quantum

In July KPMG hosted its 9th annual Tech and Innovation Symposium in Deer Valley, Utah, attended by more than 100 technology and business professionals, politicians, academics, KPMG technology alliance partners, KPMG professionals and a handful of analysts, including TBR. Three days of discussions, breakout sessions and informal chats covered AI, the space economy, quantum, cybersecurity, workforce transitions, the NBA, geopolitics and more. This is the second in a series of blogs focusing on specific elements, discussions and/or insights TBR noted during the event.

The urgency around quantum computing

“So right now, our quantum computers work … they do all the stuff that a regular computer does. They even show potential in many areas where we can demonstrate speed up, but we cannot justify an ROI with the existing quantum computers, and no one else can.” — Subodh Kulkarni, President & Chief Executive Officer, Rigetti Computing, during a panel discussion at the KPMG Tech and Innovation Symposium
 
If the hype around AI was a bit subdued this summer compared to last year’s event (see the first blog in this series), the urgency around quantum computing more than filled the gap. KPMG US CEO Tim Walsh’s initial question after the first expert speaker related to quantum. The opening breakout session for industry analysts, including TBR, focused on quantum, led by KPMG’s Aaron Kemp, senior director, Quantum Research, Enterprise Innovation. TBR found KPMG’s quantum message compelling, and maybe a touch frightening across three specific areas: post-quantum cryptography (PQC); quantum advisory; and quantum today, which, as the quote above makes clear, is here now.

Quantum’s disruption potential

“We received an RFI that really caught us caught us off guard about five years ago, asking a lot of deep questions about the coming PQC migration, what it was going to take for an organization to do that. We started looking at how are we going to answer those questions for our clients. PQC is obviously extremely complicated.” — Aaron Kemp, KPMG Senior Director, Quantum Research, Enterprise Innovation, during a panel session
 
In a discussion with TBR and during a couple of panels, Kemp stressed the massive disruptive potential of PQC. Likening the challenge to Y2K, he said IT services companies, consultancies and niche technology vendors would likely see huge opportunities in preparing for and then mitigating against the fallout from post-Q-day cybersecurity challenges. In TBR’s ongoing research and analysis of the U.S. federal sector IT services players, IBM, General Dynamics Information Technology, Booz Allen Hamilton, Accenture Federal Services and Leidos have been concentrating heavily on post-quantum cryptography, cryptographic agility, inventory and remediation services and quantum-safe networking. Even with those efforts focused on government buyers, the activities and investments by companies with significant commercial sector clients (such as Accenture and IBM) prove smart money has positioned for PQC opportunities.
 
During a panel discussion, Barak Bussel, co-founder of 7i Capital and board chair of the UCLA Center for Quantum Science and Engineering (CQSE), said, “We no longer can rely on the old kind of cryptography and the old encryption paradigms. We chatted about this before. We don’t use Enigma anymore. I mean, it’s a different world, and now it’s time to kind of migrate away from, you know, problems of factoring large numbers to a new kind of encryption methodologies that will take us to the next step.” Every panelist, and maybe every attendee at the Symposium, seemed certain that PQC and all that comes with it are frighteningly close.
 
“It’s estimated there’s 16,500 quantum researchers on the planet. When we separate those into the organizations, where does that talent come from, and how do you stay strategically aligned with quantum, the GPUs, AI, as we kind of move into this new paradigm of compute?” — Aaron Kemp, KPMG Senior Director, Quantum Research, Enterprise Innovation, during a panel session
 
According to Kemp, KPMG’s Quantum Advisory practice will focus on Fortune 200 companies, which will likely invest in their own quantum computing capabilities. In discussing this strategy with TBR and other analysts, Kemp noted the dearth of quantum talent, an assessment he echoed the following day during a panel discussion. To address that challenge, KPMG has been training professionals, particularly in the cybersecurity practice, on quantum capabilities and KPMG’s offerings.
 
The firm has also been advising clients on the near-term steps they can make to prepare for Q-day as well as for the business opportunities quantum computing will create in other sectors, such as academic research, government and life sciences. Kemp described a coming “massive opportunity” to retire technical debt, get rid of duplicate software licenses, clean up data, and streamline IT and cybersecurity within an enterprise — efforts KPMG can address with expertise and experience. In TBR’s view, KPMG’s quantum advisory story meets the moment: urgent, practical and preparing for an uncertain, but unquestionably disrupted, future. One nagging question remains for TBR: Is the rest of KPMG ready for quantum?

An analyst’s perspective: the calm before the storm

From my colleague, Principal Analyst Boz Hristov:
 
“PQC is a must-have discussion and investment, given the move to all-things-are-digital and especially the rise of digital currencies. We know blockchain solves for some of the cryptographies, but there are some strong, powerful quantum computers that could reverse the public keys to steal private ones and really defy the idea of blockchain. Given KPMG’s role in the financial services world — across its entire stack of offerings (tax, audit, consulting) — the firm needs to think about how to be part of the solution. Possibly the PQC play, which, in a perfect world, could battle bad actors and help blockchain-based crypto exchanges survive. Lots of GRC [governance, risk and compliance] opportunity here, no doubt. The challenge with PQC is that it can be expensive and very data heavy, making blockchain ledgers slow down and ultimately raise transaction fees. Migration hurdles can be another challenge as users would need to more often move to quantum-safe addresses.
 
“What is the expected play? The good-old hybrid playbook usually helps: develop and run PQC standards that run on classical computers but resist quantum decryption. Although this may not be the state KPMG’s quantum professionals want to operate in, it would be the cheaper option when it comes to scaling. Quantum is exciting, and there is huge potential, but firms like KPMG need to avoid turning it into another blockchain where a technology was looking for a problem to solve. TBR’s December 2025 Digital Transformation: Voice of the Customer Research ​noted 15% of buyers procured quantum to support their digital transformation [DT] programs in 2025, down from 18% in 2024. Since we started conducting the survey seven years ago, quantum has continued to be in the bottom half of the tech enabling buyers’ DT initiatives: not disappearing but also not top of mind. The complexities of the tech might make current buyers even more uneasy, and I think generative AI has given them plenty of change management challenges. Perhaps the generational shift at the buyer side really needs to happen before quantum picks up steam. In the meantime, KPMG has an opportunity to educate and prepare its clients. May have to do some pro bono work. But if the timing is right, it could be KPMG’s Y2K moment in terms of its relationship with IT buyers.”
 

Technologies Purchased for Central Digital Transformation Initiatives

Technologies Purchased for Central Digital Transformation Initiative (Source: TBR)

Be curious

“Quantum’s been five years away for 30 years. Quantum is here. We’re actually working in it. So start looking into where it’s applicable in your organization. What’s going to drive for mandatory migrations, governance, but also what you do with it? And then be curious, which we’ve talked about this whole event. We don’t have a lot of algorithms yet. We don’t have a lot of ideas of what we can do with these. We talked yesterday about we’re going to give these to 18-year-olds with no biases of how computers work, and we’re going to see things we’ve never seen. So inspire your people to poke at it, to understand what’s going on. Get on, play with the free minutes that everybody can get, and accept that this is coming and is going to be part of our strategies going forward.” — Aaron Kemp, KPMG Senior Director, Quantum Research, Enterprise Innovation, during a panel session
 
During the discussion with analysts and on various panels, multiple quantum professionals extolled the idea of quantum computing operating alongside traditional and high-performance computing (HPC), allowing enterprise clients and others to select the best compute power and engine for the task. With TBR, Kemp mentioned IBM’s new data center combining HPC, Watson AI, and quantum computing as a model for helping clients use a “what fits, rather than a one-size-fits-all” approach. Kemp also said (maybe lamented?) that “quantum-enhanced solutions” are possible today, but the focus among quantum practitioners remains the hard problems only quantum may be able to solve, instead of the near-term practical uses.
 
During the larger panel discussion, as reflected in the quotes, the panelists described the current state as progressing faster than expected and delivering value, potentially, when paired with traditional computing capabilities. Pulling all the threads together, KPMG has positioned itself as ready to help clients prepare for when quantum shifts from an expensive idea to an immediate opportunity and threat. Can the firm create near-term revenue as PQC meets its Y2K moment, provide reliable and useful services through hybrid computing, and manage the ecosystem and orchestration layer in quantum? Maybe. At scale with clients? Likely. Are KPMG’s clients really ready for that? Are all of KPMG’s partners, principals and directors? Let’s see.
 
TBR doesn’t have quantum experts, and we don’t pretend to understand the physics. But we do understand business models and consulting. And KPMG appears to be in the right place to bring quantum value to its clients while expanding the firm’s reach, revenues and retention.

Holiday Shopping Is Becoming an AI Story: How Value-conscious Consumers, Rising Memory Costs and Connectivity Are Reshaping Retail

Consumers are spending, but value is winning

The 2026 holiday season is shaping up to be strong on paper. Mastercard Economics Institute expects U.S. retail sales, excluding automobiles and gas, to grow 5.5% year-to-year from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, while Bain forecasts holiday sales will exceed $1 trillion for the first time. Yet the headline growth masks a more cautious consumer. Forbes reports that 31% of shoppers expect to increase their holiday budgets, but 53% of those spending more say that is because everything costs more, not because they have greater purchasing power. Bain similarly points to inflation, low savings and elevated credit card delinquencies as pressure points influencing spending decisions this holiday season. The result is a shopper willing to spend but increasingly focused on value.

AI is the new holiday shopping assistant

The search for value is accelerating consumer adoption of AI, as AI tools are seen as a means to more effectively locate and pursue greater value with purchasing decisions. Forbes reports that nearly two-thirds of U.S. shoppers expect AI to influence at least 30% of their holiday spending, with deal-finding, product comparisons and retailer selection among the leading use cases.
 
Bain found that 24% of online shoppers expect to begin their holiday search on generative AI platforms, up from 17% in 2025, while another 13% plan to use retailer-owned AI shopping agents. This demonstrates that consumers are lowering their caution around AI usage, as previously skeptical users are more willing to experiment with AI tools in the name of cost savings.
 
Additionally, Mastercard found that AI users tend to shop across a broader set of merchants and spend earlier in the holiday season. AI is therefore becoming an intermediary between consumers and brands. Though humans remain involved as the decision makers, AI enhances and extends the shopping experience to new brands, new shopping platforms and potentially new products.

The hidden cost of the AI shopping boom

The irony is that the same AI adoption helping consumers find value is increasing costs in consumer products such as electronics. Hyperscalers, neoscalers and neoclouds are accelerating AI infrastructure investment, increasing demand for ever-scarcer key memory and components, thus driving up these costs. Suppliers are prioritizing scarce capacity for server DRAM, high-bandwidth memory and enterprise storage, tightening supply for consumer applications. This dynamic will keep memory prices elevated and will continue to result in higher component costs for consumer electronics.
 
For retailers, AI can improve personalization and customer service, but the infrastructure required to deliver those capabilities comes with a rising cost.

Higher device costs add another holiday spending pressure point

The AI infrastructure boom could also reach holiday shoppers through higher smartphone costs. AI server demand is contributing to higher DRAM and NAND prices, and smartphone manufacturers have little appetite to absorb those increases, potentially pushing more costs to consumers at a time when value remains a priority. This creates a challenge for U.S. mobile network operators, which rely heavily on device promotions to drive upgrades and switching. The carriers still offer substantial smartphone discounts, but many of the largest offers require trade-ins, qualifying plans or new lines, with savings delivered through multiyear bill credits.
 
As device prices rise, holiday shoppers may delay upgrades or depend more heavily on financing and promotions, forcing operators to balance consumer affordability with the cost of more expensive device subsidies. The holiday quarter remains an important device sales period for U.S. operators. Consumers that are stretching an inflation-affected budget for the 2026 holiday season may find themselves delaying upgrades, especially if device prices increase further due to component cost growth.
 
Additionally, higher component costs will likely limit U.S. operators’ ability to discount as heavily as they have in years past.

Connectivity turns AI investment into a retail experience

As retailers invest more heavily in AI to capture increasingly value-conscious holiday shoppers, the effectiveness of those investments will depend on the infrastructure supporting them. AI recommendations, computer vision, mobile point-of-sale, real-time inventory and in-store personalization only create value when data can move reliably between devices, stores, edge systems and cloud platforms.
 
A 2026 Verizon Business study found that AI and machine learning applications are driving 67% of retailer network upgrades, while only 39% of retailers are satisfied with their edge computing support. Verizon is positioning 5G Business Internet and private networks for these workloads to address the gap in satisfaction.
 
AT&T’s Connected Spaces combines connectivity, edge infrastructure and Azure AI for environments including retail, and its collaboration with AWS connects fiber and 5G directly to cloud environments for business AI workloads.
 
T-Mobile similarly positions 5G, IoT and advanced network solutions for inventory management, mobile point-of-sale and computer vision. In this sense, connectivity becomes part of the same holiday spending story as retailers may compete through AI-enabled experiences, but networks ultimately determine how reliably those experiences reach consumers.

The holiday shopping cart now reaches back to the data center

Holiday shopping is becoming a useful snapshot of a much larger technology cycle. Consumers, who have been continuously squeezed by inflation for years, want better prices and more personalized experiences. Retailers are turning to AI to deliver both, and AI is driving investment in compute, memory, edge infrastructure and networks to support this shift in demand.
 
The connection from a shopper asking an AI assistant to find the best gift to a retailer’s cloud infrastructure, memory procurement and store connectivity may not be visible, but it is increasingly direct and essential as customers have higher expectations for seamless and positive customer experiences. For telecom operators, that makes retail AI more than an application trend. It is another reason reliable fiber, 5G, edge computing and resilient enterprise connectivity are becoming part of the commercial infrastructure behind everyday consumer experiences.

AI Is Changing Enterprise Networking, but Not All Disruption Looks the Same

AI has become a nearly universal component in enterprise networking product road maps

TBR’s latest research on AI disruption among enterprise network vendors addresses the gap in measuring how deeply AI is changing how these vendors operate by providing a quantitative assessment of Cisco, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Extreme Networks using TBR’s ©Human Intensity Reduction Index (HIRI). HIRI is a proprietary metric that provides a direct measure of a company’s AI, human capital, utilization, offshore leverage and delivery model evolution on its operating margin. The metric helps distinguish genuine business-model disruption from window-dressing AI announcements.
 
Our initial results show an industry in transition. HIRI and operating margins are improving across the peer group, but AI is only one part of the story. Restructuring efforts, revenue growth, subscription adoption and portfolio consolidation continue to strongly influence workforce productivity. Additionally, customer demand for AI-based solutions to support their own AI transformations boosts financial performance independent of the vendors’ internal AI investments.

HIRI helps separate AI-related activity from routine business operations changes

The three vendors illustrate different approaches to achieving the same fundamental goal. Cisco demonstrates the clearest evidence of AI directly handling work, including 145,000 customer support cases resolved without human intervention. Cisco has also publicly touted that AI agents are now available to all remaining employees following its latest round of layoffs. HPE is leveraging AI enhancements along with the Juniper integration, creating opportunities to reuse development resources across a much larger networking portfolio. Extreme Networks is taking a product-led approach, using Agent ONE and Platform ONE to advance autonomous networking and accelerate its transition toward a more SaaS-oriented business model.
 
HIRI is only part of the story, however. Through our research, we also examine how AI is disrupting vendors’ operating, commercial, delivery and partner models, layering a qualitative lens over quantitative metrics. This analysis makes it clear that AI is only part of the broader efficiency story for these vendors. One of the most important emerging AI-centric themes is the progression from AI assistants toward agentic and autonomous systems that can increasingly investigate, troubleshoot and execute network operations with less human intervention. These vendors are both producers and consumers of this technology, placing them all squarely at the center of this transformation. There are also very real, nontechnological roadblocks to this progress, namely FOBO (fear of becoming obsolete) and the underlying hesitation among end users to adopt and embrace AI, a challenge companies continue to seek to overcome.
 
TBR’s AI disruption research will continue to examine whether enterprise network vendors’ investments in AI are materially changing how they operate, generate revenue, deliver technology and engage their ecosystems. Access the current enterprise network vendor AI disruption data and analysis with a TBR Insight Center™ free trial.

Exploring KPMG’s Role in AI

In July KPMG hosted its 9th annual Tech and Innovation Symposium in Deer Valley, Utah, attended by more than 100 technology and business professionals, politicians, academics, KPMG technology alliance partners, KPMG professionals and a handful of analysts, including TBR. Three days of discussions, breakout sessions and informal chats covered AI, the space economy, quantum, cybersecurity, workforce transitions, the NBA, geopolitics and more. This is the first in a series of blogs focusing on specific elements, discussions and/or insights TBR noted during the event.
 
In 2026 KPMG’s message around business outcomes is landing differently than it did just a year ago, when AI hype possibly reached its peak. Now the firm and its clients talk less about productivity, cost cutting, or even AI’s potential to increase revenues and growth. Technology has taken a backseat to change as a business outcome. It is a subtle shift, perhaps, but in contrast to hype about AI’s unrivaled promise, the joys of vibe coding, and AI as the answer to every question, a grounded, restrained, business-first approach — one could even say “vibe” — provided a convincing foundation for the wary optimism that permeated the KPMG event.
 
Two specific recurring themes capture the difference between 2025 AI talk and 2026 AI reality. First, speakers, including but not exclusively KPMG professionals, stressed that enterprises cannot overspend on governance, risk and compliance. Understanding the inputs, the outputs, and what led from one to the other will be critical to leveraging AI at scale. Absent trusted and auditable AI, there will be chaos (apres moi, le deluge, perhaps). Second, using the right type of AI matters more than using AI. To paraphrase Ted Lasso, don’t be a gravedigger using a spoon.
 
Additional insights into KPMG’s AI initiatives based on discussions and presentations at the Utah event:

  • TBR noted a disconnect between AI as it is reported in major news outlets and AI-centric news and analysis feeds and AI as discussed by the speakers, KPMG professionals and attendees. IPOs, circular financing among chipmakers and frontier model companies, acquisitions, and AI personalities barely registered. Regulatory changes effecting enterprises’ business decisions around AI, practical applications of AI-enabled solutions, cost considerations when choosing different AI models, and the twin challenges of change management and trust featured heavily. In short, the Symposium participants seemingly ignored AI drama to focus on AI practicalities.
  • During a question-and-answer session, KPMG US CEO Tim Walsh provided a fairly compact set of steps for enterprises embarking on an AI initiative: know yourself, know your data and operations, know your resilience, and bring in an outsider to help. In TBR’s view, perhaps KPMG would prefer the last step to come first, but as a way for KPMG’s clients to think about scaled AI adoption within an enterprise, those steps are necessary for success, starting and ending with trust. At last year’s Symposium, a KPMG speaker said success depends on leaders, labs and the masses, a formula TBR brought up with clients during this event, testing its continued relevance. Next year, TBR will ask if outside help still rings true.
  • In a session with TBR, KPMG leaders noted that the firm has encouraged every professional across the firm to use AI agents, even if only at a rudimentary level. They also stressed KPMG’s AI role lies between the AI model layer and the data layer, providing intelligence and orchestration based on KPMG’s understanding of how businesses actually run. In TBR’s view, this intentional positioning in the middle of the AI value chain (in addition, of course, to AI advisory services at the front end of consulting) reflects the firm’s broader strategy of becoming an even more critical ecosystem partner to technology providers. When a KPMG leader talked about the firm’s OpenAI + Oracle + KPMG customer-zero story, TBR heard how OpenAI and Oracle can now better explain, to their clients, KPMG’s value and KPMG’s orchestration and business operations layer.

At the start of 2026, “simplicity” seemed to be the word of the year. Clients clamored for simplicity in AI deployments and their technology spend. Consultancies and IT services companies promised simplicity in pricing, implementation and operations. By July, trust replaced simplicity: trust at scale, trust through auditable AI, and trust enabled by Responsible AI.
 
What struck TBR most about KPMG’s frequent evocations of trust was the humility that went with it. Knowing trust has to be earned, maintained and renewed seemed to inform how KPMG leaders spoke about the firm’s capabilities and relationships. And in casual discussions with KPMG clients at the Utah event, trust came up repeatedly as a key reason they were there.

Nokia Aims to Use Current Tech Transition to Strengthen Fixed Networks, Enter New Markets and Add AI Capabilities to its Core Technology

2026 Nokia Fixed Networks Industry Analyst Event, Yokohama, Japan, Sept. 15-17, 2026 — A select group of industry analysts gathered at The Westin in Yokohama, Japan, to hear from Nokia leaders, partners and customers about the company’s Fixed Networks business unit’s strategies, capabilities and opportunities. AI, hardware upgrades and the pivot toward hyperscaler opportunities were among the themes across the various executive presentations.

TBR perspective

The fixed networks market is at an inflection point, with three major technology transitions underway across access, Wi-Fi and network management. TR-069* (technical report 069) is evolving to TR-369 (technical report 369), the first major hardware refresh toward Wi-Fi 7 is underway, and the migration from GPON to XGS-PON, and selectively to 25G and 50G PON, is progressing as these technologies advance.
 
These shifts create a favorable window for Nokia to capture demand because hardware replacement is a logical time to pull through software modernization. Operators are simultaneously reconsidering how they manage the home, automate access networks and prepare fiber infrastructure for changing traffic patterns caused by AI adoption. Nokia is approaching this wave of progress with clearly defined road maps across relevant portfolio areas (e.g., Altiplano, Corteca, Quillion, PON) and is leveraging its hardware roots as the foundation for its AI story.
 
Nokia is positioning AI as another layer of value across its Fixed Networks portfolio, which spans access infrastructure, network control and home broadband. This approach is intentionally pragmatic, focused on applying AI where it can improve customer care, network operations, rollout efficiency and user experience. The strategy is less likely to produce a constant stream of attention-grabbing but relatively empty AI announcements. Instead, it gives Nokia a more credible path to converting AI from a feature into an operating model as customers become comfortable moving from AI-assisted workflows toward more autonomous operations.
 
Communication service providers (CSPs) remain the foundation of Nokia’s Fixed Networks customer base, but the company is increasingly applying PON economics and operational advantages to adjacent non-CSP environments, particularly hyperscalers. Out-of-band management (OOBM) is the clearest near-term example, with Nokia using co-creation and a highly configurable portfolio to establish credibility with hyperscalers before extending more standardized capabilities to neoscalers and others in the enterprise space.
 
In parallel, customer examples show that growth in the broader fixed networks market requires a variety of nuanced approaches. In some markets, Nokia can help customers modernize existing infrastructure, while in others, the opportunity depends on operators finding ways to make connectivity affordable and deployable for their customers through unconventional models.
 
Nokia is becoming more selective about the Fixed Networks opportunities it pursues, particularly in the hardware business, as it shifts away from deals where competitive pricing would push margins below targets. Rising component costs are also affecting customer purchasing decisions, constraining unit volumes or altering purchase timing. These factors resulted in top-line year-to-year declines for the Fixed Networks business in 2Q26.

Hyperscaler success first; neoscaler opportunity will build

Nokia is entering the hyperscaler space with PON capabilities for data center OOBM, using a co-creation approach and customer choice to establish itself in this market, leading with flexibility as its differentiator. The value proposition centers on characteristics that translate well from access networks into data centers, including density, space efficiency, lower cabling requirements, energy efficiency, and architectural flexibility. Nokia is also building choice into elements such as mount location, port count and interface mix, reflecting the highly customized demands of hyperscalers.
 
This opportunity is strategically meaningful as hyperscaler wins can provide a healthy financial complement and diversify the customer base, but CSPs will remain the core of the business. The more consequential long-term opportunity will be productizing what Nokia learns from hyperscaler engagements and carrying it into the broader data center market.
 
The flexibility Nokia is emphasizing for hyperscalers and neoscalers is well suited to these buyers, which have clearly defined architectural requirements. For many CSPs, excessive choice can create complexity when they look to Nokia for guidance on technology evolution, monetization and operations. As Nokia expands across customer types, its ability to package the right amount of flexibility for each segment will matter almost as much as the breadth of the portfolio itself.

AI road map emphasizes right-fit AI over AI-first positioning

Nokia is approaching AI from the broader customer-improvement perspective, layering capabilities within Altiplano and Corteca onto its existing hardware and software foundation to address operational pain points as customers modernize, leading with a platform-centric story. The road map spans two complementary domains, with Altiplano applying AI to network control, analysis and operations, and Corteca applying it to device management, customer care and the broadband experience.
 
Altiplano illustrates Nokia’s deliberate progression toward autonomy. Predictive AI and machine learning already support functions such as network analysis, capacity planning, churn reduction and KPI prediction. Agentic capabilities add a conversational interface and another set of virtual hands for network engineers. The longer-term direction moves toward AI completing complex end-to-end tasks under human supervision. Nokia characterized itself as between the human-in-the-loop and human-on-the-loop stages. This is an important distinction because it suggests the near-term objective is controlled operational augmentation, not unsupervised autonomy.
 
Nokia’s AI vision favors domain-grounded and deterministic approaches where possible, including smaller specialized models when they can provide better accuracy and token economics than larger general-purpose models. Model and deployment flexibility remain key to Nokia’s AI vision, enabling operators to use different models and combine cloud and on-premises inferences without requiring its users to conform to a single AI stack.
 
Corteca follows a similarly staged path in the home. Nokia is currently using AI to assist customer-care personnel, with the road map moving toward advanced analytics and quality-of-experience optimization. Home broadband challenges are not simply about faster Wi-Fi. Operators need visibility into what is occurring inside the home to manage Wi-Fi 7 experiences effectively, and the transition from TR-069 to TR-369 gives Nokia an opportunity to make Corteca a more central data and management layer as devices are refreshed, creating a natural opportunity to adopt modern software capabilities in kind.
 
For Corteca, this progression is about improving the broadband customer experience in a quantifiable way, such as net promoter score improvements, using greater visibility and AI-driven intelligence to help operators identify customers experiencing service issues faster and determine the appropriate action before those problems translate into customer dissatisfaction.
 
Taken together, Nokia’s approach to AI is appropriately conservative for a network domain where reliability and trust matter. The company seeks to make AI consumable, measurable and progressively more autonomous without separating it from the underlying network expertise. The risk is that a measured road map can appear less differentiated because, while AI has become pervasive in competitors’ fixed networks messaging, the level of substance behind that messaging varies considerably, with some announcements still emphasizing broad AI visions without clearly defining deployment maturity or measurable outcomes.
 
Nokia’s AI road map asserts that domain expertise, trustworthy data and deterministic execution will ultimately matter more than model size or the volume and frequency of AI messaging. Nokia also touts gradual operational evolution, with defined use cases to substantiate its AI vision.

Customer examples highlight need for creativity to expand the fixed networks market

Many of Nokia’s core fixed network markets are mature from a regional perspective, meaning growth from existing customers increasingly depends on upgrades, share shifts and expansion into adjacent use cases. The event’s customer examples reinforced that there is no universal path to additional fixed networks growth. In highly saturated markets, customers are selectively modernizing where fiber creates incremental value. Elsewhere, the central challenge is not technology performance but whether operators can make broadband economically accessible to households that remain unconnected.
 
Developing markets require a different kind of creativity. Customer discussions related to emerging markets highlighted affordability, geography, payment behavior and infrastructure resilience as constraints that hardware modernization cannot solve alone. Operators are experimenting with prepaid broadband, short billing periods, rapid fulfillment, alternative distribution and localized network designs to expand the potential customer base by designing the service around how people actually live, earn and pay.
 
Country- and city-specific variables such as weather, housing, population density, affordability and existing infrastructure determine whether the business case works. Nokia’s opportunity is therefore not only to provide more capable access technology, but to help operators combine technology, deployment architecture and business models in ways that make connectivity viable in places where a conventional fixed-broadband model may not. Multi-PON flexibility lets operators delay or stage technology choices, Corteca and Altiplano can improve the economics of operating and supporting networks, and automation can reduce the human effort required for deployment and assurance. The common thread is flexibility.

Conclusion

Nokia’s Fixed Networks strategy is increasingly defined by disciplined expansion. The company is using simultaneous technology transitions of access, Wi-Fi and network management to deepen its position with CSPs, applying PON expertise to hyperscaler and neoscaler data centers, and building AI into Altiplano and Corteca through a staged path toward greater autonomy. Across each initiative, the consistent message is flexibility. Multiple PON generations, multiple AI models and deployment options, and different architectures for different customer economics all reinforce this message.
 
Hyperscalers can absorb customization, neoscalers can standardize it, CSPs often need a more prescriptive road map, and emerging-market operators may need entirely new commercial models to make connectivity viable in their footprints. The next phase of Nokia’s Fixed Networks growth will therefore depend as much on understanding how each customer creates value as it does on advancing the underlying technology itself.

Setting the Pace: What Accenture, Deloitte and Infosys Signal for Professional Services in 2027

Across the professional services spectrum, from strategy consulting through systems integration and managed IT services, competitors frequently emulate the approaches and investment decisions of three stand-out companies: Accenture, Deloitte and Infosys. That is not marketing spin on their behalf but rather a reflection of the questions we field from our clients, including the cloud, software, hardware and AI partners of these companies and their peers.
 
As part of TBR’s ongoing research on and analysis of consultancies and IT services companies, our quarterly and semiannual reports include scenarios that expand on the market trends, business model shifts, investments, and portfolio and leadership changes that underpin the performance data and shed light on what is coming next. This special report looks at trends across Accenture, Deloitte and Infosys over the last year and highlights commonalities, positioning for 2027, and outliers that may indicate the direction of these companies and their peers.
 
First, the basics: In 2Q26 Accenture generated $18.72 billion in quarterly revenue, up 5.6% year-to-year, covering its fiscal third-quarter results. TBR estimates Deloitte’s FY26 annual services revenue reached an estimated $46.9 billion, up 6.4%, reflecting just the services business covered by TBR, not Deloitte’s total global revenue. Infosys generated $5.1 billion in 2Q26 revenue, up 2.9%.
 
TBR’s individual company reports include detailed data and estimates across service lines, geographies and industries, and TBR’s benchmarks use proprietary data and taxonomies to allow for direct comparisons between more than 30 IT services companies and management consultancies.

Show me some ROI: Growing pressure to turn AI investment into measurable operational results

In TBR’s research, IT services and consulting buyers want AI to be integrated into business workflows and expect they will be able to demonstrate returns on their investment while sustaining AI adoption beyond a pilot project. These are not new or unreasonable demands, but the pressure has been mounting after a couple years of AI hype.

  • Accenture addresses this through governed agentic AI and physical AI, using manufacturing and infrastructure engagements to demonstrate improvements in downtime, quality and operational efficiency. In TBR’s view, Accenture is the best positioned vendor to capture the broadest opportunity as it combines business transformation capabilities with industrial execution, ecosystem reach and proven delivery at scale.
  • Deloitte approaches the same demand through cybersecurity and its emerging physical AI portfolio, where trust, resilience and operational safety create opportunities for its consulting expertise.
  • Infosys embeds AI into modernization and managed services engagements, while acquisitions such as Optimum Healthcare IT and Stratus strengthen its ability to address industry-specific requirements. In TBR’s view, Infosys’ push to help clients fund AI through modernization budgets provides a useful near-term revenue boost.

Enterprise buyers have tired of technology promises. That fatigue appeared before 4Q22 (when ChatGPT arrived) but was tamped down a bit in the frenzy around generative AI (GenAI) and the FOMO (fear of missing out) associated with AI adoption in 2023 and 2024. Spiraling costs and ill-defined ROI have cooled enterprise buyers’ enthusiasm and focused their buying decisions. Accenture, Deloitte and Infosys appear to have recalibrated how they position their AI offerings to reflect that new buyer mood.

The robots have not taken over, yet: AI-enabled delivery and commercial models still depend on humans

AI promises productivity improvements by off-loading repeatable, mundane tasks to algorithms and robots. If an IT services company or consultancy can do things faster with AI and automation, clients can reasonably expect their time-and-materials bill will decline. Accenture, Deloitte, Infosys and all their peers now find themselves — or, really, have found themselves since at least mid-2023 — challenged with managing the cannibalization that their AI investments may be bringing to their traditional IT services. What to do?

  • Accenture increasingly invests in proprietary assets and uses Reinvention.AI to make institutional knowledge reusable across delivery. Notably, Accenture has progressed from uncertainty about its appetite for software sales in 4Q25 toward a clearer emphasis on asset ownership and revenue growth without proportional headcount expansion.
  • Deloitte uses Operate and cybersecurity to explore recurring services and risk-sharing arrangements, including multiple delivery options for its Anthropic-enabled secure software platform.
  • Infosys pursues similar economics through Topaz Fabric, AI-enabled global capability centers and frontier engineers, but its unchanged 54% fixed-price revenue share and declining ©Human Intensity Reduction Index (HIRI) in 2Q26 indicate that commercial and workforce transformations remain gradual.

TBR’s HIRI proves useful in comparing these three companies on the effects of internal AI adoption on their performance, specifically as it relates to productivity and generating profitable dollars with the same or fewer people. In TBR’s research, Accenture’s simultaneous improvement in HIRI and operating margin provide an encouraging early signal that the company will lead in pivoting toward the right commercial model to meet the AI age.
 
Deloitte has a particularly promising opportunity within cybersecurity, where continuous, measurable work can support new pricing structures if the firm controls customization and contractual risk (notably, TBR has not yet published a HIRI for Deloitte and its Big Four peers). TBR’s analysis of Deloitte’s resource management strategy and HIRI calculations suggest the firm’s strategy is shifting toward restructuring the talent pyramid for an AI-enabled, Operate-led consulting model.
 
Deloitte is moving in two directions simultaneously: tightening the traditional consulting workforce in slower markets while expanding lower-cost and tech-heavy delivery capacity in growth hubs. If Deloitte can industrialize AI-enabled delivery, offshore talent, job-family specialization and Operate capacity, it can protect margins while winning larger, outcome-based transformation deals. If not, Deloitte risks drifting toward a labor-leverage model where more consultants, fewer partner touch points and pricing pressure make it look less like a differentiated strategy adviser and more like a scaled implementation and managed services provider. With Deloitte’s HIRI hovering around 0%, the firm appears to still lean more on a labor-arbitrage delivery model.
 
Although Infosys’ HIRI has improved since the dawn of ChatGPT, the metric has continued to slide since its peak in late 2024, declining 30 basis points sequentially in 2Q26. The biggest challenge for Infosys will be maintaining service quality and creating enough volume even if its net headcount addition remains flat rather than in decline due to AI, as many expect. With Infosys’ HIRI staying relatively flat over the last couple of quarters and revenue growth decelerating, delivering or exceeding operating margin in line with its guidance will remain the key way to satisfy impatient shareholders.

The ecosystem challenge: Who controls AI deployment and who owns the client?

Every IT services company and consultancy needs a well-curated ecosystem of hyperscalers, model providers and enterprise software vendors, but those partners increasingly offer capabilities that overlap with services work. This age-old threat, which TBR covered in detail in a separate special report, has always been more about opportunistic wins by technology companies and offerings that stayed close to the box (i.e., highly dependent on the technology itself).
 
AI may change the calculus by allowing technology companies to profitably offer services, especially as AI-enabled solutions reduce the need for humans (see previous section). Currently, TBR sees this threat as marginal, not existential, but that could change as soon as the end of 2027.

  • Accenture has responded to this growing threat by combining extensive partnerships with greater ownership of domain assets, data and orchestration capabilities, including offerings for sovereign and regulated environments.
  • Deloitte largely pursues an asset-light approach through initiatives such as Silicon2Service, Palantir-enabled EOS and Zora AI on Oracle infrastructure, creating consulting and Operate opportunities while potentially leaving Deloitte exposed when partners incorporate similar functionality into their platforms.
  • Infosys positions Topaz Fabric as the coordination layer across models and technologies, seeking to retain responsibility for integration, governance and execution.

Accenture owns assets that complement its partners’ breadth, Infosys could make its Topaz Fabric essential to clients’ operations, and Deloitte must provide differentiated value  to keep the hyperscalers and others at bay. To be clear, TBR believes the technology providers will not significantly erode these three companies’ IT services and consulting revenues, but as AI increasingly changes the overall market, IT services companies and consultancies that have not followed strategies laid down by Accenture, Infosys and Deloitte will likely be the first to see opportunities shift to their technology partners.

Space: Is it a cliché to say ‘the next frontier’?

Deloitte’s expansion into space technology through Project Constellation and the Deloitte-2 and Deloitte-3 satellites creates opportunities in on-orbit cybersecurity, AI and space data that sit beyond the enterprise AI opportunities. But these openings will come at a cost and with potential margin headwinds, as these pursuits are capital-intensive, demonstrating a pivot away from Deloitte’s asset-light model. Accelerating investments in Project Constellation (the firm has plans to launch nine satellite in total) will also come with additional opportunities and challenges.
 
Doubling down on operating its own satellites could provide Deloitte with an opportunity to demonstrate payload, edge and software-defined upgrades, helping the firm build credibility against engineering-heavy competitors, including the aerospace contracts. In other words, if the firm is successful, Deloitte could treat its space tech investments as a lab, leveraging the knowledge gained to on-Earth OT environments. The challenges will likely center on commercialization, as space projects remain heavily government-led with long procurement cycle.
 
Although Deloitte is well positioned to win advisory and transformation work, converting opportunities in emerging areas such as in-space manufacturing into managed services will likely take years. At the same time, the Trump administration’s recent launch of the United States Space Academy suggests Deloitte is making a long-term commitment to space technology while continuing to advance its Operate-to-Transform strategy on Earth over the short to mid-term.
 
Across all these elements of running a highly successful consultancy and/or IT services company, Accenture, Deloitte and Infosys continue to provide growth blueprints for their peers, as well as some, perhaps unintended, advice on strategies and steps to avoid.

The Midmarket Opportunity: Which GSIs Can — and Should — Pursue It?

TBR Fourcast is a quarterly blog series examining and comparing the performance, strategies and industry standing of four IT services companies. This quarter we examine which global systems integrator (GSI), Accenture, Atos Group, Capgemini or Deloitte, can expand into the midmarket and which has the strongest reason to do so. GSIs have pursued midmarket clients before, but the economics have rarely supported the same delivery model used for large enterprises. AI-enabled platforms and more repeatable solutions could change that equation by lowering delivery costs and speeding deployments.

What is old is new again — or is it?

Expanding into the midmarket has been a recurring theme for GSIs for many years, and some are dusting off that strategy yet again. This time, platform-led operating models that are less linked to FTE-based pricing may change the game. When looking at Accenture, Atos Group, Capgemini and Deloitte, which company could reasonably enter or expand into the midmarket? More importantly, which should?
 
GSIs all serve the midmarket in some capacity. Some have clear organizational structure while others have some solutions available (or sometimes tailored) to this segment of clients. Capgemini’s Sogeti brand, which has been in operation since the early 2000s, expands Capgemini’s reach to the midmarket and locally managed accounts while continuing to serve selected large enterprises.
 
Accenture’s launch of its midmarket business Accenture Edge has thrown the matter into discussions again.
 
Deloitte offers IT services to midmarket clients indirectly, presumably through Deloitte Private, a formalized global network serving private and family-owned businesses. In addition, Deloitte’s tax business provides an opening to midmarket clients, especially as the firm looks to lean on more platform-based sales in its broader services business. Its member firm structure lends itself to a nimbler delivery structure, which could provide an advantage, even if it presents consistency challenges at a large scale.
 
Atos Group is earlier in that process. We’ve included Atos Group because of its recent announcements around entering the midmarket with the release of Digital Workplace as a Service. Further, Atos Group’s smaller employee base compared to other peers and strong regional revenue in Europe make it a respectable contender for midmarket.

What is midmarket?

At TBR, we often hear the question, “What is the midmarket?” Definitions vary at each of the companies in this quarter’s Fourcast.
 
Interestingly, Capgemini does not have a publicly available definition but identifies midmarket companies as having $100 million to $1 billion in annual revenue in Capgemini’s Research Institute’s report, Navigating Uncertainty with Confidence: Investment Priorities for 2025. Sogeti targets “growth-oriented” clients across all industries and maintains a strong local presence in 13 of the approximately 50 countries in which Capgemini operates. Sogeti’s services portfolio encompasses advisory, implementation and managed services around AI and generative AI (GenAI), cloud, data and applications.
 
Accenture Edge addresses clients that achieve $300 million to $3 billion in revenue. Accenture Edge spans cloud and infrastructure, talent and HR, finance and ERP transformation as well as Amazon Web Services’ (AWS) productized portfolio. Accenture Edge has quickly established dedicated teams, including for Workday. Accenture has bought its way into the midmarket through acquisitions such as NeuraFlash, Cabel Industry, McCoy and COMWARE. Although many of these acquisitions add professional services capabilities on a new scale, Accenture Edge also includes existing services. For example, in March 2025 Accenture announced it was expanding to midmarket clients.
 
Atos Group is broadening its midmarket focus, which it defines as 5,000 to 15,000 employees. As discussed in TBR’s 2Q26 Atos Group report, “Atos business released Digital Workplace as a Service (DWPaaS), which is a modular, AI-enabled solution delivered through a subscription model that is built for midmarket companies. Alongside the ServiceNow-based Service Management as a Service, which provides midsize businesses with preconfigured modules, rapid implementation and predictable costs, DWPaaS reflects a broader effort to productize the Atos business’s enterprise capabilities for the midmarket.” Although Atos Group is making a more obvious shift now, the company has made solutions available to clientele with a smaller employee base, such as its Network Advisory Solutions and its Atos AMOS-AI with Red Hat OpenShift AI recently.
 
Deloitte has significant experience with midmarket clients through Deloitte Private and its tax business, where it is most likely to encounter clients of this size. According to the Deloitte US 2023 Mid-Market Technology Trends Report, Deloitte defines the market as between $250 million and $1 billion. Deloitte Private offers strategy, design, implementation and optimization for cloud solutions, including Microsoft ERP, Oracle NetSuite, SAP and Workday. In 2026 Deloitte announced it combined Odoo’s ERP platform with Deloitte Digital Mix services for scaleups and midmarket businesses, including family-owned and private-equity-backed companies. In conjunction with its tax business, the firm has reasonable means to expand further into the midmarket.
 
Although definition may vary across these four companies, delivery problems are similar. For GSIs, securing presence in the midmarket has been anything but clear. Accenture’s earlier experience shows why the economics matter. In 2015 Accenture acquired Cloud Sherpas, a Google Apps/G Suite services and reseller business that included midsize customers. By December 2017, Accenture had stopped renewing G Suite licenses for smaller customers and was referring them back to Google, saying that managing those licenses was “no longer a fit for our business model.” Agentic operating models and reusable AI assets are changing the delivery economics, making smaller engagements and midmarket clients commercially viable. Relevant capabilities include Accenture’s AI Refinery and Accenture GenWizard; Atos Group’s Atos Polaris AI Platform and Sovereign Agentic AI Studios; Capgemini’s Resonance AI Framework supported by its Reliable AI Solution Engineering (RAISE) agentic AI foundation; and Deloitte’s Deloitte Ascend and Zora AI.
 
Now that GSIs have more capacity, and perhaps more margin protection, from these agentic platforms, they will need to consider how go-to-market strategies are different in this segment. For starters, they should assess the approach of enterprise systems integrators (ESIs), which already cater to a smaller market. According to TBR’s Summer 2026 Enterprise Systems Integrators Market Landscape, which characterizes ESIs as fewer than 100,000 employees and/or less than $1 billion in annual revenue, “Enterprise systems integrators (ESIs) traditionally need to focus on a country or region, a select few industries or a technology niche, at least in their early stages.” With less resources, ESIs need to be wary of spreading themselves too thin, and the aforementioned report describes how localization is likely the most important element.
 
It is essential to remember that there are two sides to every story, and winning midmarket revenue share will mean displacing ESIs and other smaller players. The Enterprise Systems Integrator Market Landscape also discusses how, “In the last 18 months, seemingly every GSI and global management consultancy has announced strategic shifts toward the midmarket, including portfolio realignments and new, targeted go-to-market motions. ESIs cannot ignore these competitive threats and must play to their strengths, including established relationships, lower prices and more intimate, on-the-ground knowledge. Notably, in an AI age, the GSIs will likely erode any competitive advantages the ESIs have in the latter two areas, making relationships and client retention more critical.” On the GSI front, battling ESIs will mean coming up against their localization, specialization and prices.

Location matters

According to Accenture’s announcement introducing Accenture Edge, the business will launch in “priority markets around the world with partner-specific solutions.” Each of the four acquisitions Accenture made recently was used to expand midmarket capacity capabilities for a specific partner and region, although there is no one region or one partner focus across its current midmarket play. For example, Cabel Industry focuses on Italy and on Salesforce and AWS, while COMWARE serves only Japan for SAP and Salesforce services. Accenture is deploying its midmarket strategy in certain pockets of the world simultaneously. Unlike the typical GSI market, there are many competitors in the midmarket to monitor when launching this initiative worldwide. Accenture’s acquirees likely know their local competition well, but managing competitors across the globe may be more challenging.
 
Capgemini and Deloitte Private have been able to navigate local competition as they have supported midmarket clients for years, but Accenture and Atos Group do not have the same luxury of time to understand their competitors as many enter, or re-enter, the midmarket. On the client side, there are varying levels of opportunity depending on region. According to Capgemini’s Research Institute’s report, Navigating Uncertainty with Confidence: Investment Priorities for 2025, European midsize companies trail American midsize companies in technology investment and adoption.
 
Although not particularly surprising, in conjunction with Europe’s push for sovereign solutions and domestic technology, this could present a unique opportunity. Atos Group’s midmarket strategies are naturally concentrated in Europe, given its refreshed attention to its core geographies, primarily western Europe. The Group also aligns strongly with France’s technology goals. Atos Group recently renewed its participation in the “Je choisis la Franch Tech” (“I choose French Tech”) initiative, joining 22 major French companies that collectively pledged to invest more than $2.3 billion in French startups and scaleups. As France and central Europe emphasize technological independence, Atos Group’s participation in the French Tech initiative and deep reach in the market may be a value-add compared to GSIs, particularly those with stronger ties to the U.S.
 
A strength when addressing the midmarket is the ability to be nimble. For Deloitte Private, which operates across client teams globally in many, but not all, member firms, it is well-equipped to handle clients of this size. Deloitte’s member firm structure already operates similarly to what Accenture is likely trying to emulate with its acquisitions: a small, localized team able to meet the needs of smaller clients with the backing of the parent company’s full portfolio strength. On the flipside, Deloitte is moving toward a more global image, evidenced by the launch of Deloitte EMEA. In summary, fielding competitive threats is vital, but meeting clients’ needs quickly, onshore, and at the right price is even more important.

Budgets and branding

Localization is one challenge, and the delivery model creates another. With traditional time-and-materials delivery, the midmarket was less attainable, as smaller clients required designated sales and delivery teams. A platform-led approach makes the market accessible, but the new delivery model presents challenges around branding. A platform-led approach may be great for clients looking to save money, but for clients needing more hands-on support, it remain to be seen whether GSIs can provide the same attention to detail as ESIs or smaller players. GSIs must show that repeatable delivery can support attractive economics at smaller contract values.
 
If IT services companies’ new agentic-enabled operating models reduce labor intensity and improve economics, challenges around branding and pricing may arise. Specifically, consider these three questions:

  1. How can GSIs maintain their reputation for “premium” service quality when providing a less hand-on approach through agentic platforms?
  2. Will this create a divergence in pricing expectations for the large and small contracts? Do GSIs need to develop messaging for two buyer personas?
  3. If time-and-materials delivery is needed, will midmarket clients experience sticker shock? The answer will depend partly on what each company can offer that smaller competitors cannot.

When marketing to midsize companies, the four companies have largely similar messaging about their value proposition. For Sogeti, a popular marketing message is that “challenges feel smaller, when your partner feels bigger.” This implies that a bigger company may be able to provide better quality through better solutions. There may be some truth to this sentiment, given GSIs often have early access to partner solutions and extensive coinvestment relationships. Capgemini recently expanded its relationship with Google Cloud to provide access to AI-powered sovereign solutions, such as Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform, which incorporates capabilities previously offered through Vertex AI. Beyond new, innovative solutions, GSIs could hold an advantage in more competitive pricing if agentic platforms can effectively cater to midsize clients with less human support.
 
Otherwise, GSIs may struggle to sell to midmarket clients with widely available solutions, such as AI model adoption or cloud migration, that require additional support. A strength among ESIs and other smaller players is a designated niche such as region, industry or technology partner. Accenture, Atos Group, Capgemini and Deloitte each operate globally, across industry and across the technology stack. How can these four companies compete with smaller players’ specialization? Operating under another brand is one answer. If Atos Group continues down the midmarket path, will it create another sub-brand, like Accenture Edge and Sogeti? Will Accenture Edge go a step further and maintain the brand of its acquired companies to keep a more localized image?

Anyone can enter the midmarket, but who should?

For these four companies, it may be better to form networks based on the same thing: location (most likely), industry or partner..
 
For Atos Group, this network could center on sovereign solutions in Europe, especially enabled through Atos Sovereign Agentic Studios. Atos Group should pursue a selective midmarket strategy in Europe, in our view. Atos Group has a much smaller employee base compared to the other three companies discussed in this blog, at approximately 54,000 employees, compared to Accenture’s nearly 800,000 employees and Capgemini’s 418,000 employee base. Atos Group’s local connections in France and the rest of Western Europe better position the company to provide a personalized experience.
 
Deloitte’s decentralized structure organized by regions with varying expectations at the local level also lends itself to gain trust for midsize companies. The ability to provide more personalized delivery could help create a moat from other GSIs in the short term, before agentic delivery reaches maturity, or at least until consultants and clients become more comfortable. For example, a family-owned business may be less comfortable with a more hands-off delivery approach.
 
Accenture presents a different case. Competing on a very localized level will test the company’s ability to coordinate its portfolio of local capabilities without losing delivery speed or diluting technical expertise. Long-term, it may be better for Accenture to focus on breadth of offerings, which many ESIs cannot replicate. For example, Sogeti does not have a niche. The greater challenge may be maintaining smaller clients’ trust around its service quality and platform-led approach. We could discuss the importance of prudence, but Accenture is no stranger to reshaping its business ahead of enterprise demand. This raises the question: Why the push for midmarket clients? Outside a platform-based approach, we view the move as Accenture aiming to diversify revenue while testing a new delivery model for off-the-shelf solutions.
 
As part of the Fourcast, each quarter TBR examines the five-year growth trajectories of selected companies, which are depicted below. The graph represents a mix of reported company data and TBR proprietary data. The revenue outlook helps explain why the opportunity matters. Across the vendor group, midmarket growth will depend less on whether each company can serve these clients and more on whether it can do so with local relevance and repeatable delivery economics.
 
Accenture and Deloitte have a clear opportunity to use the midmarket as a growth engine because each company can use its partner reach and new platforms to expand client relationships. Capgemini already has a mature route through Sogeti, so the opportunity is more about extending an established model rather than opening a new market. Atos Group could benefit from targeted midmarket demand in Europe, particularly for repeatable workplace and sovereign offerings, but a selective approach would better fit its current scale.
 
For additional analysis on midmarket strategy, check out “Can the Big 4 Leverage AI to Capture Midmarket Opportunity?”
 

IT Services Revenue Forecast for Accenture, Atos, Capgemini and Deloitte for 2022-2030 (Source: TBR)