Playing to its strengths, Infosys has a clear path forward to deliver business outcomes through Infosys Cobalt

In the company’s first event since the Infosys Leadership Forum in Americas in 2021, Infosys once again hosted clients, analysts and partners for in-person and virtual sessions during its one-day Infosys Cobalt World Tour, which was held at Madison Square Garden. With Infosys Cobalt increasingly becoming the backbone of the company’s performance and go-to-market efforts, the themes of the event were well aligned with Infosys’ goal of becoming a digital transformation partner known for its strong execution capabilities.

 

TBR left the Infosys Cobalt World Tour event with three takeaways that will guide our continuing analysis of Infosys’ cloud capabilities and performance:

  • Infosys embraces a business-outcomes mindset, and Infosys Cobalt will enable the transformation.
  • Infosys is obsessed with customer centricity, which we believe will be critical as the company scales “as a Service” sales and as renewal cycles shrink.
  • Partners, talent and leadership culture strategies are mixing well at the moment, enabling Infosys to enhance results.

Infosys Cobalt becomes the de facto framework for accelerating performance in both legacy and new technology areas

With revenues from Digital reaching 59.2% of Infosys’ (Nasdaq: INFY) total sales in 1Q22, up from 51.5% a year ago, the company is demonstrating its ability to capitalize on its investments in portfolio, talent and alliance partners, all necessary ingredients for expanding client wallet share. Infosys defines its Digital services as being “comprised of service and solution offerings of the company that enable our clients to transform their businesses. These include offerings that enhance customer experience, leverage AI-based analytics and big data, engineer digital products and IoT, modernize legacy technology systems, migrate to cloud applications and implement advanced cyber security systems.”

 

Infosys wrapped up FY22 on a high note as the company registered its largest growth in over a decade, increasing revenues 20.3% on an annual basis to $16.3 billion. Infosys added $2.75 billion in net-new revenue in FY22, which was higher than the combined $2.62 billion in revenue from the three previous years. Infosys’ success was largely enabled by Infosys Cobalt as the company has been able to up- and cross-sell Cobalt to clients seeking to modernize and optimize IT architectures and business processes through adoption of cloud-ready services and solutions while lowering total cost of ownership. Infosys launched Infosys Cobalt, a suite of platforms, solutions and services, in August 2020.

 

Today Infosys Cobalt taps into the company’s catalog of over 35,000 assets, 300 cloud solutions blueprints, and a developer community of startups as well as public and private providers. While Infosys Cobalt has its own global leadership structure and P&L, Infosys’ decision to not set it up as a stand-alone unit but rather as a go-to-market framework that pulls assets from within Infosys and its broader ecosystem enables Infosys Cobalt to better support the company’s cloud performance. (TBR’s estimates of Infosys’ cloud revenue and growth can be found in TBR’s Cloud Professional Services Market Forecast).

Zooming in on client-centric support throughout the customer life cycle paves the way for ‘as a Service’ sales at scale

During the event, Infosys let clients tell the company’s story rather than having leadership lead the presentations, an approach that in TBR’s view was different than how peers usually run similar forums. The experiences and use cases they all shared further solidified Infosys’ cloud expertise including not only traditional lift-and-shift migration support but also its ability to engage in security-wrapped outcome-based business discussions rooted in Infosys’ technology execution prowess. Infosys’ clear vision around its cloud value proposition takes into account important aspects of enterprises’ business and digital transformation programs, including culture, talent and deepening clients’ trust.

 

In addition to facing challenges around culture and talent — issues that all vendors are grappling with industrywide — Infosys must also focus on deepening clients’ trust, particularly as it seeks to adopt “as a Service” pricing models at scale. Managing client relationships beyond the initial point of sale is key, and we believe Infosys will accelerate its efforts to adopt a beyond-the-contract type of mentality to ensure renewal rate goals are met, especially as cloud contracts pivot from traditional large, five-plus-year outsourcing setups to shorter-term subscription-based contracts where clients have an opportunity to switch between providers, further compelling Infosys to stay on top of relationships.

 

Though Infosys continues to hire in bulk, sales and support staff declined 50 basis points as a percentage of the total workforce to 5.1% to 16,156 in FY22, up from 14,582 in FY21, reflecting the company’s focus on its delivery staff as Infosys’ sales strategy succeeds in the market. Additionally, automation enables Infosys to standardize processes in service delivery, which we believe will be critical as Infosys scales “as a Service” sales. “Operation remains very core to us, [helping with] cost optimization every year. We’ve taken out between 3,000 to 4,000 people, automating and putting in bots, and this is fourth quarter.” — Nilanjan Roy, CFO, Infosys, 1Q22 earnings call

 

With business services pivoting from noncore to core, Infosys must also account for the twofold implication of scaling “as a Service” sales at scale. Monetizing both the development and management of cloud applications through a consumption-based commercial model carries risks and rewards for Infosys, a paradigm many systems integrators face. For example, Infosys needs to bear the cost of staffing its bench with engineers to develop the applications far in advance, often without knowing how long it will take to monetize the SaaS offering. Infosys has tried to pursue SaaS sales at scale in the past, but we believe the company now has a clearer vision, expectation and path forward on how to approach the opportunity. The incremental approach Infosys takes to scale its cloud-related sales is centered around Infosys Cobalt’s ability to deliver value-wrapped proprietary and partner assets in a services-oriented architecture, which solidifies Infosys’ value proposition within the ecosystem. Such a strategy allows Infosys to stay within its swim lane while also helping it demonstrate the company is willing to share risk without jeopardizing performance by attempting to sell stand-alone software solutions.

 

While Infosys’ Products and Platform offerings are available on both a license and subscription basis, the company still largely uses many of these assets to drive services engagements. As it relates to Infosys cloud sales, the Infosys Cobalt store provides an access point for clients to explore catalog offerings, with the underlying goal of driving services engagements for Infosys. The additional value of Infosys Cobalt offerings also comes from the company’s ability to wrap an industry layer on top of the technical functionality of these assets, such as the launch of the Infosys Cobalt Financial Services Cloud offering. The solution will support Infosys’ efforts to accelerate performance within its largest industry vertical and address client pain points around areas such as anti-money laundering, transaction reconciliation, open banking, consumer lending and mortgages. Such an offering enables Infosys to build trust with business unit leaders and expand the company’s addressable market especially as clients seek to monetize their user data generated through B2B and B2C interactions with cloud enabling the speed of access.

Balancing relationships within the stakeholder ecosystem without losing focus on talent and partners is key to strengthening trust with clients

As much as Infosys values the role of partners, the company recognizes the importance of its greatest assets — its people. However, Infosys has not been spared in the war for talent. The company continues to evolve its resource management value proposition from hiring for skills to hiring for potential, investing in talent development programs that target nontraditional recruits with the goal of establishing emotional connections with the brand, which could help strengthen loyalty and improve retention. For example, a collaboration between the Infosys Foundation USA and the CBS television series “Mission Unstoppable” will highlight three teachers from the foundation’s Pathfinders Institute program — Infosys’ professional development program for K-12 teachers in computer science. The company also expanded the Infosys Springboard learning program to the U.S., which currently has 1.2 million users largely in India, to support early learning as well as career reskilling programs in the U.S. as the region remains a priority for Infosys.

 

Further, the first group of apprentices graduated from Infosys’ New Apprenticeship (NEW) program, having undergone 12 months of structured and on-the-job training in IT services and incident management. NEW cohorts also earn certifications, such as ServiceNow Certified Systems Administrator, and can earn college credits at Southern New Hampshire University. While much of the cloud-related work today is largely geared toward cloud application development, migration and managed services, Infosys’ leadership sees a bigger gap in the support domain moving forward due to increasing use of low-code development tools, especially as the company seeks to scale deployment of Infosys Cobalt’s 35,000 assets including 300 industry solutions. Training staff on low-code/no-code solutions will help it build trust with business buyers while supporting Infosys Cobalt’s goal to evolve its value proposition toward delivering business outcomes.

 

As Infosys’ portfolio and go-to-market efforts enable the company to climb up the value chain within enterprises, the company remains realistic about its core strengths. The role of alliance partners is key across both technology and advisory services. Just as Infosys seeks to capitalize on partners’ capital expenditures outlays — particularly hyperscalers — and position itself as an ecosystem orchestrator, the company also appreciates the value consulting partners bring to the table. The recent formalization of the global partnership with EY, which is focused on deployment and management of industry-aligned digital assets, further solidifies Infosys’ ability to recognize its strengths rather than pursue risky bets and try to branch out into uncharted territories.

Infosys proves its value as an ecosystem orchestrator by applying the right technologies and partner-backed innovation to clients’ sustainability initiatives

The event showed across multiple levels that Infosys sticking to what it does best is highly advantageous when applied in a partner innovation setting, including around sustainability. Recognizing that no one vendor can do it all, Infosys’ EVP and head of manufacturing spoke at length during one session with a client executive from a global HVAC company about the two companies’ relationship around HVAC and building system sustainability, including how Infosys is leveraging the HVAC company’s capabilities as both a client and an innovation partner. With nearly 40% of the world’s carbon emissions coming from buildings, decarbonizing physical estates will be one of the most challenging tasks for enterprises, particularly as the majority of existing HVAC systems are not intelligent or connected in any way. The two companies are trying to tackle this issue and make the well-known phrase “what gets measured gets managed” a reality for the HVAC industry.

 

Through the conversation TBR came to understand that Infosys Cobalt provides the bridge for its partner’s HVAC expertise with the possibilities of IoT and big data. Work between the two companies has helped Infosys reduce its emissions (Infosys became carbon neutral as of 2020) and enabled the global HVAC company to track building efficiency and troubleshoot issues before even arriving on customers’ sites by leveraging the cloud and IoT-powered HVAC systems. While Infosys’ services line of business does not create emissions from manufacturing, its manufacturing clients can be confident that Infosys is bringing the right partners to the table, is a carbon-neutral supplier (therefore supporting its clients’ scope 3 downstream emissions targets), and can apply its technical prowess to help measure where clients are starting out, enabled by cloud.

Conclusion

From cyber to AI to industry specialization, Infosys Cobalt will continue to provide the bridge between Infosys’ core and new portfolio offerings while supporting the company’s efforts to extract additional wallet share from its client roster and pursue new logo opportunities. Just as Infosys’ leadership, clients and partners throughout the event recognized that scaling adoption of new ideas and solutions is less about technology and more about the culture of an organization, the same sentiment applies to Infosys’ internal transformation. Infosys’ organizational culture has gone through growing pains associated with its portfolio as well as client demands over the past four decades. It has not always been easy or straightforward and has sometimes resulted in shaky performance.

 

Today, Infosys’ culture is strong largely due to leadership’s ability to recognize the company’s place within the ecosystem. Despite rising attrition levels, which is an industrywide trend, Infosys’ approach to talent training and inclusion provides the strong foundation necessary to pursue organizational goals. Infosys Cobalt is no exception. Instead of setting it up as a stand-alone unit, an approach many of Infosys’ peers have taken with similar offerings, Infosys Cobalt spreads across the entire organization, leveraging the skills, expertise and industry knowledge of the company’s sales and delivery personnel. Ensuring Infosys Cobalt provides consistent and standardized client support is key, but could create internal competition when trying to pull the most skilled resources in multiple client engagements at the same time. However, this also presents an opportunity for Infosys to test its ability to become an ecosystem orchestrator. Adopting a customer zero mindset often provides the most valuable use case before deploying at scale to market.

 

TBR will continue to track and analyze Infosys’ performance and investments as part of its quarterly Infosys report, IT Services Vendor Benchmark, Global Delivery Benchmark and Digital Transformation research. Contact us today to gain full access to these upcoming publications.

EY on sustainability reporting: Data, credibility and transformation  

Lessons learned from the EY-hosted webcast “How the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive will transform your organization”

KPMG Decarbonization: The change agent helping the firm pivot toward its next chapter

The KPMG Global Decarbonization Hub supports the organization’s ESG agenda by bringing skills, partnerships, tools, and data and analytics solutions that further enhance KPMG’s advisory-led value proposition.

Taking innovation to 4 dimensions: EY, Nottingham Spirk and the metaverse

In mid-February, TBR met with EY-Nottingham Spirk Innovation Hub leaders and learned further details about the goals and operations of the relatively new center. The EY team included Greg Sarafin, EY’s Global Alliance and Ecosystem leader; Jerry Gootee, EY’s Global Advanced Manufacturing Sector leader; and John Nottingham, cofounder and copresident of Nottingham Spirk. Three weeks later, Gil Forer, EY’s Digital and Business Disruption leader; Woody Driggs, EY’s Americas Consulting Digital Transformation wavespace leader; and Shubhra Kathuria, Metaverse, NFT and Foundry Leader at EY wavespace, walked TBR through how EY has been delivering wavespace sessions in the metaverse. On the surface, EY presented approaches with stark contrasts between “not much that can’t be made here” and “mapping a client’s journey to the metaverse.”

EY-Nottingham Spirk: Commercialization at speed and innovation with partners

Since TBR’s visit to the grand opening of the EY-Nottingham Spirk Innovation Hub in October 2021, the pace of engagements has stayed consistent with EY’s expectations, steadily increasing as the firm’s leadership, technology partners and clients appreciate the potential for taking innovation straight through to commercialization at scale. According to Gootee and Nottingham, many industrial clients have come to the Innovation Hub looking for both a strategy reset and guidance on how to innovate differently. Nottingham said manufacturing clients, in particular, have been “firefighting” through the current market due to supply and demand imbalances and a generally turbulent environment. Even while focused on operational challenges, these clients continue to be interested in looking to the future and understanding emerging opportunities. Gootee reinforced that EY’s role remains convening a value chain that can drive innovation for clients.

Both the EY and Nottingham Spirk professionals remain committed to commercialization at speed and scale, as well as strategies and business model transformations, product innovation and immersion, and the future of technologies and markets. Gootee, in particular, re-emphasized many of the priorities and characteristics described in detail in October. TBR asked specifically about the role of EY-Nottingham Spirk’s technology partners, such as Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and SAP (NYSE: SAP), which led Gootee to note that ideally three-quarters of the clients coming to the Innovation Hub will be led through by EY, while the remaining quarter will be shepherded by technology partners. In TBR’s analysis, no other IT services vendor or consultancy has a similarly tightly intertwined engagement structure, which allows and even encourages technology vendors to lead clients through this kind of digital transformation and innovation space.

Wavespace metaverse: Building trust through familiarity and faces

Over the last seven or eight years, TBR has visited more than 30 innovation and transformation centers, soaking in the immersive experiences and trying out the funky chairs. The COVID-19 pandemic forced IT services vendors and consultancies to shift to entirely virtual engagements, and TBR has been predicting an evolution toward hybrid sessions since the start of 2021. Over the last year, TBR has attended some virtual analyst sessions, which included avatars and kind-of-still-beta versions of the metaverse. Just as the EY-Nottingham Spirk Innovation Hub broke new ground in innovation and transformation centers, EY’s wavespace metaverse is breaking new ground in an entirely new space.

Evolving at a perfect pace: PwC EMEA Products

In mid-February, TBR met with leaders from PwC’s core Products team for EMEA, including David Padwick, PwC EMEA Consulting chief operating officer; Ralf Jaspert, PwC Germany, Advisory Digital Products leader; and Nele Van Buggenhout, PwC UK Perform Plus Leader, to discuss TBR’s observations, based on multiple interviews with current and former PwC professionals as well as with PwC clients, that PwC Products has not been adopted as enthusiastically across Europe as it has been in the U.S. Not surprisingly, the PwC leaders told a more complete and nuanced story about Products in EMEA, the emerging role of software and managed services sales, and expectations for near-term growth, describing in detail to TBR how the firm expects the next few waves of PwC Products to play out.

Creativity, if not scale, and client-driven technology in EMEA

Drawing contrasts between PwC US and PwC EMEA, Padwick noted that while PwC EMEA adheres to the firm’s global advisory strategy, at least two differences stand out. First, the PwC brand in the U.S., according to Padwick, is more technology-centric than the PwC brand in Europe, which influences how PwC EMEA consultants tailor their go-to-market messages in the region. Given the technology-centric nature of engagements in the region, combined with a higher volume of services, PwC EMEA’s sales structure has not been able to pivot to support business development through products and solutions. Second, PwC EMEA has focused on developing software assets to expedite the delivery of consulting solutions to clients and has not been designing them specifically to be sold, independent of traditional consulting engagements.

Padwick stressed that PwC EMEA contains “plenty of creativity, even without the scale” of the U.S. and that the various EMEA member firms and professionals have developed a “long list of [software assets] with applicability … and [PwC EMEA is] getting better at prioritizing.” While this initial characterization painted a picture of PwC EMEA trailing the U.S. to a significant degree, Padwick and his colleagues explained that the longer incubation periods and slower sales cycles do not preclude PwC EMEA from having a strong position with Products.

Perform Plus platform evolves to meet client needs

The PwC EMEA team walked TBR through a couple of specific offerings developed organically within the firm’s Europe practices. As far back as 2016, PwC had been working with financial institutions on stress-testing their risk and asset management systems, an effort Jaspert said had been codeveloped with clients, lending the resultant solution greater applicability and credibility in the market. This stress-testing solution as a product was a start and  is now one of 47 consulting-centric products that PwC EMEA clients license directly from the firm.

Another solution, as described by Van Buggenhout, started with a 12-week coaching program encompassing a wide array of enterprise activities, such as sales and product development. Urged on by clients, PwC EMEA built a digital solution, Perform Plus, to capture daily performance information and ideas and employee well-being, enhancing clients’ internal teamwork. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated PwC’s efforts behind the Perform Plus platform, which the firm has now deployed with 25 clients across EMEA, as well as the U.S. and Canada. Perform Plus is built on Google Cloud with a standard API that allows integration with other technology enabling it to handle a variety of platforms, including a recent large-scale deployment integrating a client’s daily Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) data.

For TBR, PwC EMEA’s decision to codevelop solutions with clients and let the consulting engagements drive the technology solutions (not the other way around) reflects the global firm’s lessons learned from the last 10 years as emerging technologies have permeated nearly every consulting engagement and clients have come to expect a technology-enabled solution to their business problems. In previous discussions with PwC professionals in Europe, TBR repeatedly heard comments indicating that clients do not perceive PwC to be a software company, but the European clients that have recently purchased PwC Products have become excellent use cases and reliable references for other European clients. The firm’s brand perception may be slow to change, but the quiet reality is that PwC is steadily increasing revenues tied to Products.

Risk management: PwC’s newest Next platform

In mid-February, TBR met with senior leaders from PwC’s U.S. Cybersecurity, Risk & Regulatory practice, including Vikas Agarwal, the firm’s Financial Crimes Unit leader, and Arlene Laungayan, a director in the firm’s Cyber Risk & Regulatory practice. The PwC team brought TBR up to speed on developments across the firm’s range of offerings, focusing on the Risk Management Portfolio. PwC’s risk management strategy is driven by the firm’s Cyber, Risk & Regulatory leader Sean Joyce and his managing partner John Sabatini under consulting and firm leadership. The following reflects both the mid-February briefing and TBR’s ongoing analysis of PwC within the larger management consulting space.

Risk evolves along with The New Equation

After setting the stage with an update on organizational changes and a description of some recent client engagements, including timely advice provided to clients on the secondary and tertiary effects of economic sanctions imposed against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, Agarwal commented that while PwC has collaborated closely with the largest technology vendors, the professional services firm does not aim to “be a tech company.” PwC instead aspires to be “the best knowledge company, well equipped to merge knowledge with technology.”

In the context of risk and regulations, PwC is capable of helping clients understand key issues and challenges, develop meaningful content, and deliver services through a solution. Not surprisingly, Agarwal led the discussion with PwC’s The New Equation, and his description of PwC’s value and how it is delivered dovetailed well with both The New Equation and TBR’s evolving view of PwC as a firm. Risk and compliance may be one of the oldest service lines offered by PwC and its Big Four peers, so successfully pulling technology through to the heart of risk offerings requires balancing speed, efficiency and evolving client expectations for the tried-and-true characteristics of risk and compliance (consider that one of The New Equation’s founding principles, according to PwC, is that “when our better selves and the greatest aspects of technology are brought together, there is no opportunity too great for us to achieve.”).

While internal change continues to drive PwC’s evolution, Agarwal and his colleagues did note the importance of changing client demands, particularly as the total number of chief compliance officers has increased in recent years, particularly within the Fortune 500. CEOs and CFOs, in Agarwal’s telling, have become “sick of chasing the issues” and have looked to chief compliance offices to “solve risks in silos, but [to] tell the story at the top [and to] understand and communicate” to the full enterprise the criticality of risk and compliance to the overall business.

Dealing with multiple people within an organization around risk issues could be a winning strategy in two ways. First, the more people and personas PwC interacts with, the more the firm’s value becomes clear to its clients. Conversely, consulting on risk only with a chief compliance officer and a limited risk team potentially places restrictions on PwC’s overall relationship with the client. Second, maturity, with respect to risk, will vary across an organization, providing an opening for PwC to serve clients with appropriate solutions for their needs. Of course, being able to serve multiple stakeholders within a client and at various maturity levels requires a robust set of risk and compliance offerings.

Digital transformation, cybersecurity and cryptocurrency: How the war in Ukraine will change technology forever

The war in Ukraine and ICT vendors: 3 coming challenges in a changed world

Less than two weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, TBR’s assessment of the effects on the ICT market remains necessarily constrained. The majority of the largest ICT vendors TBR covers do not have tremendous local market and/or client exposure to Russia or Ukraine, so the impact of the war on ICT companies, if the conflict remains limited to those two countries, will be marginal — not insignificant, but marginal — with some exceptions, such as Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERIC), Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and SAP (NYSE: SAP). Longer term, absent either a miraculously positive or an existentially negative development (peace blooms or mushroom clouds), TBR expects the pressures detailed below will force IT services, cloud and software, data center and infrastructure, and telecom vendors to adjust their strategies and their business models.

 

Digital transformations slow, opening new opportunities

Already stressed supply chains will experience additional sand in the gears, slowing down deliveries of essential hardware and delaying build-outs of data centers, enterprises’ IT infrastructures, and even the physical towers needed for telecommunications. While IT services vendors and consultancies have sold digital transformation (DT) as a method of addressing business problems through agile application of emerging technologies, enterprises and their technology suppliers need the actual physical components to make the “digital” part of digital transformation work. A slowdown in hardware availability will convert into a slowdown in enabled applications and soon everything around DT will become slower and more expensive.

 

In this DT winter, consultancies advising on supply chain issues and global systems integrators (GSIs) and their technology partners enabling hybrid cloud while bolstering on-premises enhancements will flourish. Chip manufacturing investors will receive government backing and may find technology vendors across the entire ecosystem willing to make long-term commitments to mitigate the risks they are facing now. In a reversal of fortune from the last few years in IT, third-party maintenance specialists — the very boring techies who are keeping the old systems running while the young geeks play with AI and the metaverse — may see a boom as a constrained chip supply and slowed digital transformations make keeping the current technology operational increasingly important.

 

Cybersecurity commands center stage (hopefully, for real this time)

In every survey TBR has conducted around IT services and digital transformation, buyers have prioritized cybersecurity as a top three — and frequently No. 1 — concern. And yet, enterprises underinvest and remain vulnerable, humans fail to take precautions and fall prey to ransomware attacks and worse, and cybersecurity remains more talked about than acted upon. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will change that. While pre-invasion predictions anticipated an aggressive Russian cyber campaign, the first week of fighting featured exclusively kinetic military action, with limited, negligible cyber strikes. Analysis conducted in the middle of combat rarely survives intact once the smoke clears, but TBR believes a couple of scenarios could account for Russia’s relative cyber silence. The most encouraging one is that Ukraine’s defenses worked. While NATO, particularly the U.S., shared near-real-time intelligence in the lead-up to the invasion as a means of applying diplomatic pressure and denying Putin a war narrative suited to Russia’s needs, the West and Ukraine would be less likely to share cybersecurity victories in the same way military successes have been touted and with the same divulgence of critical intelligence. A less-encouraging scenario would be that Russia is saving its cyber strikes for an anticipated second stage of the war, when the shooting slows and economic and political wills are tested. Cyberattacks that take critical energy infrastructure offline in Western Europe would be damaging now but would have a greater effect on NATO countries’ populations during a prolonged economic slowdown tied to a standoff in Ukraine. In either scenario, consultancies, GSIs and technology vendors providing cybersecurity services and infrastructure will benefit from renewed concentration in the C-suite on cyber risks, provided those vendors have invested in country-specific, locally sourced, certified talent.

 

 

Russian aggression will not dampen pandemic-driven cloud demand

After benefiting from COVID-19 disruption, cloud should fare well yet again in the face of the war in Ukraine

We expect cloud vendors to experience limited financial and operational disruption as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Most cloud and software vendors generate a small percentage of their revenue from the two countries combined and maintain limited direct investment, partly due to Russian business regulations. The larger potential impact, in terms of the cloud market, is a slowdown in adoption and investment. The effects of the invasion on the global economy, COVID-19 recovery, and energy markets are all still uncertain.

During the last prolonged economic downturn in 2008, the cloud market was still very early in its development and still quite a small part of most customers’ IT environments. That challenging economic environment was a boon for cloud adoption, largely due to the cost reduction and capital expense avoidance benefits it could provide to customers. The general perception and value of cloud have evolved since then to be more focused on agility and innovation rather than just cost savings, a change we believe may again benefit the cloud market.

In times of uncertainty, cloud’s ability to help customers change business processes, gain greater insight into data, and ensure IT services are available regardless of geolocation have proved invaluable. While prolonged economic uncertainty could pressure IT budgets, we expect cloud to remain a priority given the value customers have realized especially during challenging times. The cloud space may not directly benefit from this invasion as it did with COVID-19, but we expect its growth will continue.

Global hyperscalers do not stand to lose significant revenue streams, but will see delays in the already lagging eastern European cloud markets

The most obvious and direct impact of the war is the disruption of revenue streams for cloud vendors with business and footprints in Ukraine and Russia. Especially in Ukraine, business operations have been all but halted as citizens flee, protect their families, and defend their nation from the Russian military.

While the magnitude is not overly significant to most cloud vendors due to the relatively small size of Ukraine in population, economy and overall cloud adoption, certain global vendors, specifically Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), have a sizable presence and generate revenue streams within the country. Microsoft announced a partnership with the Ukrainian government for cloud services and security in 2014 and in 2020 was discussing plans to invest up to $500 million, including two new data centers, to service the Ukrainian market. That investment has not yet come to fruition, but Microsoft’s relationship with the Ukrainian government has intensified as it works to thwart cybersecurity threats arising from the war.

Russia is certainly a larger economy, but also should not lead to material pressures for cloud vendors during the war and its aftermath. As the aggressor, Russia does not face security threats like Ukraine does, but sanctions have wreaked havoc on Russia’s economy. With the ruble plummeting, Moscow Stock Exchange closed, and financial systems facing chaos, the IT and cloud spaces are impacted along with every other industry in Russia. The effects are mitigated by the fact that cloud adoption has been quite low in the country. Europe in general lagged the U.S. in the acceptance and implementation of cloud solutions, and Russia is even farther behind.

According to industry estimates, 5% or less of IT spend in Russia is cloud related, well below worldwide rates in the 25% range, which means that Russia accounts for less than 1% of the total cloud market opportunity. For the U.S.-based cloud leaders, the revenue effects are mitigated even further by the regulatory challenges of competing in the country. Similar to China, Russia’s laws prevent direct operations by foreign firms. Local providers like Yandex, SberCloud and Mail.ru control a majority of the market. Microsoft and Amazon Web Services (AWS) (Nasdaq: AMZN) have partnered with some of these local providers to participate in Russia, but we do not believe those relationships have grown into significant revenue streams. The war will mean cloud revenue will be delayed further for AWS, Microsoft and other leading global cloud providers, and some vendors might opt to shutter their operations in the country.

Lumen evolves from a traditional telco to a technology company

The 2022 Lumen Global Analyst and Consultant Forum showcased Lumen Technologies’ (NYSE: LUMN) ambition to transform from a traditional telco to a technology company. Lumen’s capabilities in hybrid networking, edge computing, connected security, unified communications and more will help support clients’ transition to a distributed workforce while bolstering Industry 4.0 initiatives across multiple verticals.

“The Platform for Amazing Things” was the central theme of the forum and highlighted Lumen’s strategy of leveraging its vast global network footprint (450,000 global route miles of fiber and over 60 planned global edge computing nodes) and robust enterprise portfolio to serve as an enabler of digital transformation for clients.

Lumen will continue to face challenges such as diminishing demand for its legacy solutions, competition from 5G wireless providers, Comcast Business’ (Nasdaq: CMCSA) growing footing in the midmarket and international markets via its recent Masergy acquisition, and disruption from hyperscalers’ growing pursuit of private network opportunities. However, the vendor will benefit from its willingness to collaborate with the broader technology industry, including with hyperscalers and other telecom operators such as T-Mobile (NasdaqGS: TMUS), as well as its strengthening capabilities in consulting, implementation and managed services as Lumen becomes better versed in supporting IT solutions from a broader array of providers.

Impact and opportunities

Divesting its ILEC and Latin America assets will enable Lumen to fund its Industry 4.0 initiatives

Lumen will transition into a leaner and more profitable company over the next several years as it divests nonstrategic assets, including its Latin America business and ILEC (incumbent local exchange carrier) operations in 20 states. The divestments will enable Lumen to increase focus on its Industry 4.0 initiatives. Additionally, they will allow the company to concentrate on its more viable remaining ILEC operations in 16 states, which have higher fiber penetration, population density and enterprise demand than the pending divested markets. The divestments will also enable Lumen to target investments toward growth areas including fiber and enterprise portfolio expansion.

Business services revenue, which is experiencing persistent declines due to lower demand for legacy solutions and elongated sales cycles amid the pandemic, will account for a higher proportion of Lumen’s total revenue following the divestment of the company’s ILEC assets. To improve business services revenue, Lumen will increase investment in strategic IT solutions such as edge computing, security and managed services as clients modernize infrastructure and implement advanced use cases to improve operational efficiency.

Returning to top-line growth is a priority for Lumen, though the company expects revenue will continue to decline in 2022 despite growth in certain strategic services, such as edge computing. Lumen is targeting a return to revenue growth within two years as Industry 4.0 initiatives begin to offset legacy solution declines and Lumen’s consumer segment benefits from the expansion of its residential Quantum Fiber services to reach a total addressable market of 12 million locations over the next several years.

2022 Lumen Global Industry Analyst and Consultant Forum: A select group of industry analysts and consultants were invited to hear from Lumen Technologies leadership about the company’s business, technology and go-to-market strategies and goals. The event included sessions focused on technologies such as edge computing, cloud, SD-WAN and SASE, unified communications, and cybersecurity as well as customer case studies in verticals including manufacturing, the public sector, retail, education, food service and sports.

There are no guarantees in the metaverse, but Tech Mahindra bets on it anyway

Tech Mahindra unveils a dedicated metaverse practice

On Feb. 28, 2022, Tech Mahindra announced the launch of its new practice, TechMVerse, a metaverse-oriented business unit that will focus on developing immersive and digital experiences for clients. According to the company’s press release, the practice will combine Tech Mahindra’s network and IT infrastructure expertise with AI, blockchain, 5G, augmented reality (AR)/VR and quantum computing capabilities to build metaverse use cases, such as DealerVerse (a metaverse-based car dealership), Middlemist (a non-fungible token [NFT] marketplace), Meta Bank (a virtual bank), and a gaming center. While currently at about 100 employees, according to The Economic Times, Tech Mahindra announced that it plans to train 1,000 engineers in the coming years to support the practice’s growth.

5G as the company’s backdrop 

Tech Mahindra’s historical strengths as a telecom-oriented IT services firm help guide its future path. Today’s Tech Mahindra was born from a 2013 merger with Mahindra Satyam, which helped the company diversify into new verticals outside of its core telecommunications market, such as banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI). As such, telecom infrastructure, network and IT services are Tech Mahindra’s bread and butter, accounting for approximately 40% of total revenue. And the company has continued to invest in 5G, network and software-defined architecture services, giving Tech Mahindra strong capabilities in the next-gen wireless technology that will help power many of the data-intensive metaverse use cases.


A recent example includes a collaboration with Nokia (NYSE: NOK) that will enable Tech Mahindra to leverage Nokia’s private wireless Digital Automation Cloud solution for customers and support 5G private wireless network automation and management through an “as a Service” model. Verizon’s (NYSE: VZ) “H1DD3N” AR/VR treasure hunt in September 2021 to promote its 5G network across several large U.S. markets and Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) new iPhone lineup reflects 5G’s role in supporting metaverse use cases, and Tech Mahindra’s 5G private wireless network capabilities can make similar events and 5G speeds possible for its enterprise clients.

Tech Mahindra eyes 2 key areas of the metaverse 

Two components of Tech Mahindra’s investments related to the metaverse stand out to TBR, particularly around NFTs and gaming. As blockchain data and analysis firm Chainalysis stated in its 2021 NFT market report, “In 2021, users have sent at least $44.2 billion worth of cryptocurrency to … two types of Ethereum smart contracts associated with NFT marketplaces and collections.” Tech Mahindra is aiming to capitalize on the commercialization of new products related to this NFT spending. Specifically, the company plans to offer digital and professional experience services around design and content through TechMVerse and will also offer low-code NFT and blockchain platforms for enterprise clients.


We see this as a key opportunity for Tech Mahindra, as organizations increasingly devote resources to exploring the connection between NFTs and the metaverse — such as JPMorgan’s Onyx Lounge in Decentraland, where one can buy virtual land with NFTs — yet may lack the required IT infrastructure, skills or impetus to build their own use cases from scratch. Tech Mahindra is also planning to collaborate with Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. to offer digital collectibles that will be listed and offered for sale through Tech Mahindra’s NFT Marketplace platform.


At the same time, the gaming industry is arguably the pioneer of the metaverse. From The Sims to Fortnite, consumers continue to spend real dollars on virtual things in virtual worlds. Hence, the metaverse is not a new concept, rather one that has already been quietly and successfully adopted by gaming companies, as new data from the Entertainment Software Association found that spending on gaming content reached $51.7 billion in 2021. While noting that it plans to develop use cases, Tech Mahindra also announced it is launching a new Cloud Gaming as a Service solution for telecommunications, cable and OEM companies in partnership with Ludium Labs, a firm that offers cloud adoption and interactive streaming of applications.


According to the press release, the 5G-powered, low-latency gaming solution will have a library of 150-plus AAA games stored in the cloud and will help these firms improve their customers’ access to compute-intensive games on any device, thereby eliminating the need for consoles and high-speed internet. The service mirrors Microsoft’s efforts to transform the gaming industry by bringing in subscription-based business models with the 3Q20 launch of Project xCloud.


According to TBR’s 4Q21 Microsoft Cloud report: “While Project xCloud — now called Xbox Cloud Gaming — was not the first subscription-based gaming service to be offered in the industry, TBR felt at the time of the launch that Microsoft’s ability to differentiate would be supported by the company’s expertise in operating subscription-based businesses and guide its gaming go-to-market efforts.” Tech Mahindra’s Cloud Gaming as a Service solution can open up similar opportunities to its core communications client base and enable telecom companies, cable companies and OEMs to compete with gaming incumbents, further expanding Tech Mahindra’s addressable market in the metaverse.