As we build toward the middle of the quarter, we’re wrapping up our periodic assessments of IT services vendors. Like last week, we also have some semiannual analysis on vendors in the management consulting space.

Monday: 

• KPMG’s risk-averse culture pressured its performance, causing the firm to drop a spot in terms of revenue size among peers in the latest assessment of the management consulting practice. A potential KPMG and Bain marriage, however, could be a way for the firm to catch up with rivals and disrupt the management consulting space.
• Continued expansion of its onshore presence, including the recent build-out of its co-innovation center in London, improves HCLT’s value proposition by enabling it to work alongside its clients to create larger-scale transformation engagements. However, HCLT faces some challenges in recruiting talent to support new centers, spurring the implementation of employee development programs.

Tuesday: Although Atos will grow revenues at a slower rate in 2018, the expansion of the company’s Digital Transformation Factory portfolio and recently announced acquisition of SIX Payment Services, which is expected to close in 4Q18, will enable the company to accelerate revenue growth in 2019. TBR’s 3Q18 Atos report analyzes the implications from Atos’ ongoing activities, such as the Syntel acquisition and investments artificial intelligence (AI) and security solutions and capabilities.

Wednesday:

• Senior Analyst Jen Hamel examines EY’s strategy to provide clients with technological enablement of business transformation in her profile on the firm for our Fall 2018 Management Consulting Benchmark. One key takeaway: Increasing its investment in technology-enabled services, including those involving blockchain and AI, by $1 billion over the next two years will improve EY’s competitiveness with solutions-led peers IBM and Accenture.
• We continue looking for signs Wipro will see improved performance, as its India-centric peers have, to align with its digital transformation strategy and expanded portfolio and capabilities. In this latest assessment, we’re still searching.
• Capgemini has made changes to its portfolio, organizational structure and sales model to address rising demand from clients’ business side, rather than their technology side. In TBR’s 3Q18 Capgemini report, we will dive deeper into topics such as AI, digital marketing, and Capgemini Invent, the new global business line Capgemini launched in September.
• In TBR’s 3Q18 Perspecta Initial Response, we will provide an overview of Perspecta’s second quarter as an independent company. Made up of Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s former U.S. Public Sector business, Vencore and KeyPoint Government Solutions, Perspecta faces some challenging financial and resource-related issues as it works to find its footing as a stand-alone company.  

Thursday:

• TBR’s 3Q18 Raytheon Intelligence, Information & Services (IIS) full report explores how the emerging geopolitical power struggle in space and cyberspace plays to Raytheon’s strengths in cyber hardening, computer network operations, advanced analytics and AI. The report examines how IIS was able to outgrow federal IT services competitors in 3Q18 and how its deep mission knowledge in the U.S. provides a strong foundation as it pursues riskier adjacent market opportunities in volatile markets such as the Middle East.
• TBR’s 3Q18 Leidos full report examines the company’s first quarter of year-to-year organic revenue growth since it acquired Lockheed Martin’s IT services business in 2016. The report explains Leidos’ positioning across defense, health and civilian markets and how the company is adjusting to disruption amid the federal market’s shift from bespoke proprietary technology development to configurable commercial-off-the-shelf IT solutions.
• In our 3Q18 results on Wednesday, TBR expects Cisco Services to continue to accelerate revenue growth during the rest of 2018 and in 2019, positively affected by Cisco’s ongoing portfolio investments in and acquisitions around next-generation and software-driven solutions that generate professional services opportunities. TBR expects Cisco’s recent acquisitions and partnerships in cloud, security and networking to generate increased professional and technical support services for Cisco Services during the coming quarters.

Friday:

• The previous edition of TBR’s Management Consulting Benchmark Profile: PwC described the firm’s efforts to make its Business, Experience, Technology (BXT) framework a companywide endeavor. Six months later, we’ve seen signs the firm’s ambitions around BXT have evolved from aspirational to operational, with global examples of the framework becoming an on-the-ground reality in working with clients.
• Partners enable Fujitsu to enhance its core services with cloud, software and digital capabilities, helping to ease clients’ transition into emerging areas while offsetting declines from traditional services. However, without expanding its client base outside of Japan, Fujitsu could face challenges in maintaining revenue growth.

On Oct. 9, Atos completed the acquisition of Syntel, adding close to $1 billion in revenues, 89% of which were generated in North America in 2017, as well as over 23,000 employees. This month, TBR analysts will travel to Dallas to hear further details on Atos’ plans with Syntel and further assess what this will mean for Atos and its competitors.

Syntel expands Atos’ transformational capabilities in North America

Syntel provides critical scale for Atos’ Business and Platform Solutions (B&PS) division in North America and enables Atos to expand its digital transformation activities in the region. As Syntel’s revenue is fully driven by B&PS activities, such as in digital, automation and robotics, the acquisition will enable Atos to diversify its revenue in North America, which has been largely reliant on Atos’ Infrastructure and Data Management (IDM) division. Selling Atos’ offerings in cybersecurity, big data and IDM to Syntel’s acquired client base as well as offering Syntel solutions to Atos’ global clients and pursuing large-scale holistic digital transformation projects will drive revenue growth for Atos through 2021.

Syntel’s intelligent automation tools enable Atos to deliver cost-effective solutions to clients

Atos expects to generate $120 million in cost synergies through the acquisition, which, together with the addition of Syntel’s efficient business model, will boost Atos’ profitability. While G&A rationalization, real estate management and procurement will drive cost synergies, the main lever will be the rollout of Syntel’s delivery model for Atos’ large B&PS accounts, which make up $1.3 billion in annual revenues and 36% of B&PS revenue. Notably, Atos plans to adopt Syntel’s delivery model and integrate its processes; tools, such as intelligent automation tools called SyntBots; metrics; and 18,000 employees in India to improve Atos’ cost base and augment B&PS operating margin, which was 7.4% in 1H18.

Atos increases cloud services opportunities

Reinforcing its cloud capabilities through the acquisition of Syntel enables Atos to expand client reach in North America and increase hybrid cloud orchestration activities. Atos has already rebranded Syntel to Atos Syntel, which is now a separate Atos brand, and Syntel’s Cloud Services offerings are being marketed to clients as Atos Syntel Cloud Services. Syntel provides Atos with added expertise from more than 50 cloud projects and cloud services offerings that better enable Atos’ enterprise IT solutions to deliver a “digital backbone” to clients. The Atos Syntel Cloud Services offerings are supported by Syntel’s IP-based accelerators and automation tools such as the SyntBots. TBR expects Atos will work toward a unified cloud services portfolio by integrating Atos Syntel Cloud Services with Atos’ existing cloud capabilities, such as Atos Canopy Orchestrated Hybrid Cloud.

Atos is an expert in integrating acquisitions, such as that of Syntel

Let’s look at Atos’ track record on acquisitions: Following its strategy to add digital technology capabilities and intellectual capital, and augment its position in e-payments, the company acquired seven companies during 2017 and announced three acquisitions in 2018, two of which — Syntel and Air-Lynx have closed — while SIX Payment Services is pending approval. The company has a history of successfully integrating acquisitions, some small and others large, such as Siemens IT Solutions and Services (SIS), which added approximately 28,000 people to Atos in 2011. SIS had experienced lingering revenue declines and low profitability levels; however, during the integration process, Atos was able to restructure SIS so that Atos’ profitability was not negatively affected and improved in the following years. TBR expects Syntel will have an overall positive affect for Atos in terms of client reach; expanded solutions capabilities, especially around digital, cloud and automation; and profitability. Syntel, which had an operating margin of 25% in 2017, driven by efficient and automated processes, will boost Atos’ profitability as Atos adopts Syntel’s model of operations in B&PS.

A survey conducted by Adobe Analytics found that 32% of U.S. consumers owned a smart speaker in September 2018, compared to 28% in December 2017. The report also projected that near half of the U.S. consumer base could own one by the end of December 2018, supported by Adobe Analytics’ finding that nearly 80% of smart speaker sales occur during the holiday season. It is just one study, and there are more conservative studies out there ― but even if the data isn’t completely on the mark, it does uncover the trend of voice-controlled devices gaining ground inside consumers’ households despite use cases and monetization still being blurry.

I own four Amazon Alexa-enabled devices myself: two Echo Dot smart speakers and two Fire TVs. Of the Echo Dots, one was given to me by a colleague to play around with, and another I bought for about one-third the list price from acquaintances who had received it as a gift from their extended family and left it unopened because they felt it was “too creepy.” In our household, the Echo Dots have been used as glorified hands-free music players in our kitchen and one of our bathrooms. The Fire TVs are used as media players first and foremost. Sometimes, we try some of the new skills Amazon sends along in update emails as a fun diversion, but usually that is a one-off activity. I am deeply invested in the Amazon ecosystem, having been a Prime member since its debut and a fan of Prime Video, but it is still challenging to find ways to use Alexa smart-home devices to enhance my other Prime benefits or drive me to Amazon’s e-commerce business.

Adobe’s research seems to align with my anecdotal experience, noting that among the most common voice activities* are asking for music (70% of respondents) and asking fun questions (53% of respondents). The only other activity above 50% is asking about the weather (64% of respondents). So yes, people are using them, but these are not skills that require much depth or complexity or that drive additional revenue for Amazon.

Therein lies the problem for voice-platform providers such as Amazon and Google (Microsoft and Apple are also players, but I don’t believe they are as developed as Amazon and Google are in the smart speaker and voice assistant space). In an ideal world, voice assistants would provide platform companies with a wealth of consumer data as users query the devices about their everyday needs. Also, voice assistants can be a new conduit to monetization through new applications or — especially in Amazon’s case — to lowering barriers to the purchase of goods. However, most complex tasks, such as ordering a ticket for the movie you’d like to see tonight, finding out when the beach is open, or buying an outfit for an upcoming wedding, are still much easier via a smartphone or laptop interface. The Adobe study found that of the 32% of respondents with a smart speaker, only 35% and 30% used voice interfaces for basic research or shopping, respectively.

Improving the use cases, or “skills,” of voice assistants will be critical for platform vendors to increase the use of these devices for complex tasks and to elevate smart speakers from smart radios and novelties to gleaming data gems. TBR expects this to be the major battleground between voice assistant and smart speaker providers moving forward as the form factor has been relatively proved. TBR believes Google has a slight advantage due to its heritage in data mining behind the façade of services as well as its Android and Chrome cross-platform tie-ins (a lot of relevant user data is already in Google, such as contacts, schedules, and often email). Amazon is no slouch either due to its investment spend, growing media empire and robust e-commerce platform, which Google lacks. Apple could be a dark horse; however, its Siri is still weaker on an artificial intelligence (AI) basis and the HomePod’s pricing makes it an unlikely easy gift.

The next frontier for all of these platform providers is in the commercial space, an area we may see Microsoft put much of its effort into while leaving the consumer space for better-suited peers. In fact, collaboration between Microsoft and Amazon on voice and smart speakers may confirm this. Using voice assistants and smart speakers to query analytics or gain business insights or employing them as a “smart secretary” in conference rooms are areas TBR sees as avenues for commercial expansion. TBR has seen slightly different approaches from Amazon and Google in the commercial space. Amazon, likely with Microsoft support, focuses on the office with Alexa for Business, while Google seems to be positioning its voice AI and smart speaker technology to serve as an interface for a business’s customers.

However, as with the consumer space, the use case must be proved, the skills must be ironed out, and existing commercial infrastructure must be modified to support voice assistants and smart speakers. And despite furious investment in these possibilities by the major platform players, TBR doesn’t expect to see Alexa widely adopted in the boardroom for at least another two to three years. For now, I believe smart speakers will continue to find their way into homes as a novelty or curiosity for tech-excited people and early adopters, contributing to slow but steady growth, or as an easy, cost-effective tech-based gift, driving additional bursts of increased unit sales during the holidays.

*Voice activity data includes devices that are not smart speakers, such as smartphones.

Last December, EY Global Blockchain Leader Paul Brody recognized the breakout market for initial coin offerings (ICOs) and launched a longitudinal study, centered on class of 2017 companies that is fueled by this new way of raising money for software startups. One year later, as detailed in EY’s report published today, market valuations for the top 10 ICOs were off 55% — abysmal performance by any standard. Buried in the bad news for almost all the companies, one can find a few bits of success, particularly with companies providing blockchain infrastructure. The incredibly poor performance around incubation makes a strong case, to use a “Deadwood” metaphor, that snake oil salesmen made up most of those 2017ers. As this year comes to a close, around one-quarter of the initial ICO-backed companies have a product in the market, further evidence the breakout included a number of outright frauds. In addition, of the 25 companies that had products, seven devalued the use of utility tokens by allowing payment in fiat currency, facing up to enterprises’ persistent reluctance to conduct business transactions in anything but hard currencies. Curiously, paying in tokens, according to Brody in a discussion with TBR prior to today’s announcement, came across as only the second-biggest obstacle to commercial adoption, with the first being the desire for transaction privacy — a desire pure public blockchains cannot satisfy. In EY’s previous report on ICOs, issued last December, the firm anticipated the third-greatest objection, concerns over full regulatory compliance, an insight that tracks closely with EY’s tax and audit credentials.

Today’s report includes a few nuggets revealing the depth of EY’s study:

• “Companies that have made meaningful progress toward working products only increased by 13% in 2018. 71% have no offering in the market at all. Typically, within one year of a traditional venture-backed software startup, you would expect to see a significantly higher percentage of the companies with a functional early stage product.”
• “Seven out of 25 reviewed projects accept other currencies, rendering utility tokens less valuable. Some projects have altogether dropped their utility tokens to focus on functionality. To become a means of payment, utility tokens have to be stable. If it remains stable, the token is of little interest to speculative investors.”
• “Globally, sources of funding will likely shift away from retail investors toward entities that can understand and manage the downside risks, such as venture capital and digital asset-focused investment funds.”

Will next year be better? The blockchain infrastructure companies will likely be surpassed by a second wave of ICO-funded companies, with most of these taking an asset-backed approach to token issuance, essentially creating a product that is enterprise-ready at a time when buyers are not convinced of the benefits of placing all their assets on the public blockchain domain. This then raises the question: Do new wave ICO-funded companies need to rip pages from Ethereum’s playbook or simply play within its orbit? Ethereum is not a one-size-fits-all solution, but it certainly provides a solid foundation for many to learn from, especially around its “smart” contact functionality. Further advancing along some of the must-do steps EY pointed out in its December 2017 report, this second wave will more adequately address the need for clear justifications for blockchains and tokens; an ICO process more closely aligned to the initial public offering (IPO) process; enhanced security; and something close to legal compliance, or the regulators will simply begin enforcement substantial enforcement. In short, privacy trumps transactability.

The regulatory aspect piques my interest, in part because of the know-your-customer (KYC) aspects of post-ICO-linked financial transactions and recent efforts of EY, among others, to better incorporate emerging technologies into anti-money-laundering and KYC operations.

In this wild west, with its unregulated moral hazard, where does EY fit in?

My initial thoughts had the consultancy as the “Deadwood” preacher, known to all and trusted, but neither the law nor the bank. My colleagues convinced me EY will be more like the General Store, providing certified, trustworthy services and goods, helping clients mine for gold without shortcuts and faulty equipment that bring down the whole operation. Now imagine artificial-intelligence-enhanced, blockchain-powered resupply brought into Deadwood.