2022 Predictions: Data Center

Join Principal Analyst & Practice Manager Angela Lambert Thursday, Feb. 17, 2022, at 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST for an in-depth, exclusive review of the Top 3 Predictions for Data Center in 2022, part of TBR’s Predictions special series examining market trends and business changes in key markets, such as cloud, IT services, digital transformation and telecom. 

Data center infrastructure vendors are racing to further entrench themselves into customers’ ecosystems, from managed services to hybrid cloud enablement, to diversify their revenue beyond hardware and create more reliable revenue streams. During this webinar, we will discuss three key areas where vendors are innovating and reinventing to carve out space in evolving markets.

Don’t miss:

  • How hardware subscription offerings will be refined to boost traction
  • How infrastructure vendors will embrace ecosystems
  • How vendors will attempt to gain share in edge compute

Mark your calendars for Thursday, Feb. 17, at 1 p.m. EST,
and REGISTER to reserve your space.

Related content:

  1. Top 3 Predictions for Data Center in 2022

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2022 Predictions: Telecom

Join Principal Analyst Chris Antlitz Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022, for an in-depth, exclusive review of Top 3 Predictions for Telecom in 2022, part of TBR’s Predictions special series examining market trends and business changes in key markets, such as cloud, IT services, digital transformation and telecom. 

Don’t miss:

  • How supply-demand imbalances could impact the pace of 5G market development
  • Why hyperscalers are shifting focus from central cloud to edge cloud
  • Which vertical is expected to spend the most on private cellular networks over the next few years

Mark your calendars for Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022, at 1 p.m. EST,
and REGISTER to reserve your space.

Related content:

Top 3 Predictions for Telecom

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2022 Predictions: IT Services, Management Consulting, Federal IT Services and Global Delivery


Join Practice Manager and Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst Boz Hristov, Senior Analyst John Caucis, Senior Analyst Elitsa Bakalova and Senior Analyst Kelly Lesiczka for an in-depth look at TBR’s predictions for the IT services market, including management consulting, federal IT services and global service delivery, in 2022 as well as trends they expect to see during the year.

Don’t miss:

  • Services is still people, even as compelling new forces like environmental, social & governance initiatives and emerging technologies challenge IT services vendors  
  • Managing talent and restructuring and building decarbonization credentials will drive management consulting in 2022
  • Federal spending priorities shifting to favor civilian agencies
  • Fallout from the pandemic will lead to the most disruptive year in global delivery since the start of outsourcing

Mark your calendars for Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, at 1 p.m. EST,
and REGISTER to reserve your space.

Related content: 

  1. Top 3 Predictions for IT Services 
  1. Top 3 Predictions for Management Consulting 
  1. Top 3 Predictions for Federal IT Services 
  1. Top 3 Predictions for Global Delivery 

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With Cerner, Oracle buys into an industry that is actively embracing cloud and outpacing total GDP growth

A deal would indicate revenue potential, but the evolving competitive and technology landscapes raise questions

On Dec. 20, 2021, Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) announced plans to acquire Cerner (Nasdaq: CERN), a front-runner in the healthcare IT (HCIT) industry, for $28.3 billion. The announcement comes as COVID-19 continues to strain global healthcare systems, driving up demand for digitized workflows and processes that can help improve efficiency, enhance service quality and reduce costs. The announcement also comes as Oracle faces a turning point: After six consecutive quarters of corporate year-to-year revenue gains, net-new buyers, not just those inside the Oracle ecosystem, are showing interest in the company’s feature-rich suite of back-office applications and second-generation cloud infrastructure.

As such, by drawing on some of the successes of its previous acquisitions, including Peoplesoft and NetSuite, Oracle hopes to use Cerner, whose business has similarly been on an upward trajectory, to enter a new phase of growth that is more on par with the 30%-plus growth rates recorded by competitors Amazon Web Services (AWS) (Nasdaq: AMZN), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Google Cloud (Nasdaq: GOOGL). Should the deal close, this growth could stem from multiple areas, including onboarding electronic medical record (EMR) and electronic health record (EHR) workloads to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), and using AI services like Oracle Assistant to kickstart conversations with the clinical, operational and financial branches of healthcare in a land-and-expand approach.

Despite the growth potential, investors appear skeptical, with Oracle’s stock price falling 5% on the day of the announcement, largely due to concerns around the company’s cash standing and ability to position Cerner as a more notable alternative to Epic and other competing HCIT firms. In some ways, this skepticism stems from Oracle’s lack of comparative experience in the industry cloud space and, perhaps to a larger extent, investors see the acquisition as another one of Oracle’s attempts to buy revenue, similar to the company’s failed TikTok deal and subsequent fallout.

Regardless, Oracle’s biggest challenges stem from the evolving technology landscape that is actively favoring not only the cloud but also open, hybrid multicloud delivery methods. Oracle plans to use Cerner to bolster its cloud position, but given the company’s later-to-market standing and perception for locking customers in, it is unclear the extent to which Cerner will actively support Oracle’s cloud vision. Furthermore, competitors, including those with deeper pockets and arguably more open partner ecosystems, only add to this skepticism.

Cerner would be the largest buyout in Oracle history, but valuation is reasonable

After the announcement, sticker shock was inevitable, as the deal came at a price tag in line with some of the largest acquisitions in software history, including Microsoft’s purchase of LinkedIn and IBM’s purchase of Red Hat. However, based on Cerner’s 2020 and projected 2021 financial results, Oracle valued the deal at roughly 5x Cerner’s annual revenue, a level that is typical in industry acquisitions, especially those that include firms with more transactional business models. COVID-19’s halt on upfront spending impacted Cerner’s license business and overall revenue growth in 2020, but the company has quickly bounced back in 2021 and is expected to meet its annual revenue guidance of 5% year-to-year growth.

A key part of Cerner’s strategy has been accelerating organic top-line growth through platform modernization and emphasizing SaaS-like delivery methods. This approach aligns with Oracle’s strategy, which similarly emphasizes revenue growth through annuity-based cloud services. Another priority for Oracle is gaining share through OCI, which will be a difficult feat given the highly saturated nature of the IaaS market. Oracle will help Cerner overcome challenges entering global markets, especially in an unpredictable industry like healthcare, to meet its growth objectives.

Although Cerner management boasts leading market share in many markets outside the U.S., in the U.S. EHR space, the company currently sits at about 25% market share and is losing out to Epic, which is nearing an estimated 30% market share. As such, Cerner’s, and Oracle’s, biggest opportunities could come internationally. Oracle will play a key role in helping Cerner, which currently derives 89% of its revenue from domestic customers, expand its international presence.

HCLT’s groundbreaking apprenticeship initiative: Long-term vision, near-term effects

In the battle for talent, prepare for the long war

Recruit, retain and train. Every IT services vendor over the past couple of years has been pulling every lever to find, manage and reward talent in a chaotic market in which new competitors and newly empowered professionals have spiked attrition across the board and strained HR staffs as never seen before. The pandemic brought about a new appreciation for employee well-being while proving virtual engagements and delivery could work for IT services vendors. As 2022 starts, filling talent gaps in the near term will continue to challenge every vendor. Notably, HCL Technologies (HCLT) has begun investing in the long term with a program that is perhaps unique among IT services vendors and certainly, in TBR’s view, timely, a little risky and genuinely good for society. 

On Dec. 9, TBR spoke with Ramachandran Sundararajan, HCLT’s EVP of Human Resources at HCL America, and Rohan Varghese, HCLT’s VP and global head of Analyst Relations and Customer Advisory Board, both of whom provided details on the new apprenticeship program. The following reflects that discussion and TBR’s ongoing analysis of HCLT.

Flexibility, STEM and a 5-year apprentice journey  

With the company’s new apprenticeship program, announced in November, HCLT has crafted an expansive, flexible, multiyear journey for students intent on joining the IT services and science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) ecosystem. The core program begins with a year spent at HCLT as a salaried employee, including a three-month “boot camp” that introduces apprentices to various aspects of HCLT’s IT services, consulting and technology businesses. The second phase focuses on practice-based learning. Sundararajan emphasized the “practice” part, noting that apprentices would have exposure to and gain experience working across many of HCLT’s core areas, such as SaaS, cloud, security and networking services. Over the final three months of the first year, apprentices join a live project environment, supporting and providing help at an appropriate proficiency level and putting to use skills learned from working in sandbox environments.

When apprentices graduate from this last phase, they become eligible for an HCLT-funded college program and can fully appreciate the flexibility that HCLT offers. Graduated apprentices can enroll in a four-year STEM program at any university, with HCLT picking up the tuition and fees and keeping the student on the company’s payroll. Apprentices can also choose an associate degree track to move more quickly to full-time employment. Or apprentices can opt for industry-recognized certifications, moving even more rapidly into the full-time workforce. In all three journeys, HCLT pays the academic costs, allowing the apprentices to earn a degree without any student debt.

Looking beyond the usual boundaries while staying aligned to HCLT’s core

Notably, HCLT has designed the apprenticeship program to seek candidates both geographically and economically diverse from the standard STEM talent pool. HCLT wants to attract students with fewer financial advantages than the average college student and will be recruiting most heavily in cities away from the technology hubs of Silicon Valley; Austin, Texas; and Boston. Sundararajan said HCLT will work with community groups in Cary, N.C.; Hartford, Conn.; and Sacramento, Calif., among other cities, although HCLT would welcome apprentices from any part of the U.S. In addition to throwing the net wide in terms of who and from where, Sundararajan said the goals of the program centered on building skills for the future, recognizing that the technical skills, who has them, and where they live will have lasting effects across their communities.

Top 3 Predictions for Devices in 2022

Devices demand to decelerate in 2022

Devices market will see growth return to pre-pandemic levels throughout 2022

Many thought the initial surge in devices demand would quickly fade after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but that has not been the case. Revenue growth across the ecosystem, especially in PCs and tablets, has been much higher in recent quarters than traditional single-digit growth. However, this current elevation is unsustainable.

Over the past two years, the devices market has seen a major industry shift in supply and demand that has reshaped the ecosystem and has led to strong and consistent growth from most device vendors. It began with factory closures that hurt early 2020 supply chains and revenue growth, followed by a major spike in demand for devices used to entertain, work and learn from home during the pandemic. A shortage of components has led to this demand being unmet as of the end of 2021, leaving TBR to question whether vendors will be able to maintain revenue growth, unit sales and average unit revenues in the long term.

TBR expects a drop in demand and revenue growth by the end of 2022 due to these unsustainable conditions; however, other factors will emerge to help stabilize the devices market at pre-pandemic levels. These trends include continued revenue growth, albeit at a decelerated, low-single-digit pace rather than the 20%-plus year-to-year growth seen since mid-2020, as well as vendors’ releases of Windows 11 PCs and additional 5G device enhancements to drive refreshes in the coming year.

2022 devices predictions

  • PC market growth unsustainable, will return to single digits in 2022
  • Tablet market revenue growth set to decelerate in 2022
  • DaaS will lead all PC services in revenue growth through 2022

Learn more in our webinar 2022 Predictions: Devices

Download a free copy of TBR’s Top 3 Predictions for Devices in 2022

Telecom Business Research’s 2022 Predictions is a special series examining market trends and business changes in key markets. Covered segments include cloud, telecom, devices, data center, and services & digital.

Humans at the center: EY’s People Advisory Services in the post-pandemic workplace

Transforming the employee experience for EY and its clients

In late October 2021, TBR met with senior partners from EY’s People Advisory Services, including Kim Billeter, principal, Americas People Advisory Services leader; Jonathan Sears, principal, Americas Organization and People leader; Gerard Osei-Bonsu, EMEIA Integrated Mobility leader; and Agi Donnithorne, associate director of Global Analyst Relations, to discuss their firm’s ambition, investments, people and place within the broader people advisory market. The following reflects that discussion and TBR’s overall research and analysis of the current human management consulting market.

Throughout the entire discussion with TBR, EY’s People Advisory Services leaders emphasized that their whole practice revolved around placing “humans at the center,” an approach that has been embedded natively into every EY service line, including Consulting, Tax, Strategy & Transactions, and Assurance, reflecting EY’s firmwide and global approach to talent issues. EY’s leaders also emphasized deploying and testing solutions internally before introducing them to clients and continually working to “simplify complexity” across every element of the hire-to-retire people advisory spectrum.

Notably, the EY leaders said their main clients have expanded beyond the chief human resources officer to now include chief operating officers, chief financial officers, and line-of-business leaders more attuned — possibly due to the pandemic — to the vast array of human capital management challenges, including office space, productivity tools, immigration, and risk management. While human capital management consulting includes, potentially, an impossibly diverse and almost unmanageable set of capabilities, offerings and consulting services, Billeter and the rest of the EY team kept the discussion focused on two key components: prioritizing a “humans at the center” approach and transforming the employee experience, starting with a reimagining of EY’s and its clients’ workforce agendas.

In TBR’s view, every company has faced human capital management challenges during the pandemic and some lessons have spread quickly (for better or worse). As spiking attrition, return-to-workplace issues and the war for talent all heat up across professional services and the broader workforce, EY’s decision to ground humans at the center while thinking about how long-term transformation should resonate with clients while helping the firm maintain its own employee morale and culture.

EY Skills Foundry designed to meet upskilling and reskilling demands for digital transformation

In briefing TBR on the full scope of EY’s People Advisory Services Practice, the EY leaders described transformation solutions; capabilities including talent management, workforce planning, HR transactions, and digital assets such as the Learning Experience Platform and EY Mobility Pathway; and strategic alliances with IBM, Microsoft, SAP and ServiceNow. Turning to the EY Skills Foundry, the EY team reiterated that the seemingly relentless need for digital transformation (DT) among all enterprises drives upskilling and reskilling talent among professional services and technology firms. Clients’ workforces must change as well, and clients, according to EY, are not prepared and lack skills, capabilities and scale.

The EY Skills Foundry, which the firm initially deployed and refined internally, includes three components: a live heat map of skills across an organization, showing both supply and demand and allowing for more rapid decision-making around reskilling investments; a content aggregator EY described as “learning intelligence” designed to add speed and scale to training; and “a validated, secure digital record of employees’ skills and experiences,” which can help clients more rapidly deploy the right person to the right opportunity. The EY team stressed that the firm tested the foundry platform over the last couple of years, applying automation when possible and seeking input and refinements from clients.

While still nascent, with fewer than 10 live clients, TBR believes the EY Skills Foundry has two key attributes likely to separate EY’s offering from that of its competitors in the crowded human capital consulting field. First, the firm can prove the business case and almost ensure success by pointing to EY’s own internal results across a global firm with nearly 300,000 professionals. This “customer zero” use case resonates with clients, particularly for offerings blending technology and change management. Second, EY has prepared itself to sell, deploy and support the EY Skills Foundry through multiple business models, including traditional consulting engagements, SaaS and managed services.

Expanding how EY engages with clients extends the firm’s reach within clients and enlarges the potential market EY can serve. TBR’s November 2021 Digital Transformation: Voice of the Customer Research includes the following analysis: “Improving HR operations and employee efficiency slid to the bottom of the objective list in 2021 — down from No. 3 about 18 months ago, just after the pandemic began — confirming that the emphasis on employee experience was short-lived and buyers quickly reshuffled priorities to ensure shareholders’ expectations are met.

Business ecosystems must invest in massive supply chain pivots

COVID-19 supply chain impact

COVID-19 laid bare the underinvestment in contingency capabilities during the decades-long pursuit of cost optimization. In short, business leaders assumed a certain status quo in business continuity and did not leave sufficient capital tied up in unfinished inventory to provide necessary buffers in supply chain efficiency. Firms had over-rotated on optimization and perhaps assumed their trading partners were on par with them in terms of the technology “twinning” of their activities. COVID-19 exposed the need for agility, and when scale advantage only enabled top-tier firms to have the automated tool sets, working with the vital Tier 3 and Tier 4 suppliers resulted in the cascading pileups now in the news.

Future supply chains have to be embrace open contributions

Uneven technology enablement with supply chain participants certainly has created a network effect, but not the positive force multiplier discussed in third-wave economics papers. Supply chains, by definition, are a collection of ecosystem participants. For there to be a positive network effect, there has to be democratized access to technology innovations. Tier 3 and Tier 4 suppliers lack the funds and the skills to build digitally transformed supply chains on their own. In this sense all enterprises have to learn a lesson from the technology industry in terms of IP contributions to the ecosystem.

Ecosystems have to provide a common platform of nondifferentiable value-add to all participants —value-add in terms of stripping labor and labor mistakes from process flows, and nondifferentiable as it impacts neither ideation nor sales engagement. Open source is how technology has wrung cost of compute out of the model. This is how platform businesses achieve the network effect, as positively espoused in third-wave economics. 

Supply chain has the attention of the boardroom

The value of the interconnected supply chain ecosystems has been gaining boardroom attention and, as EY notes, COVID-19 only accelerates the need. The pandemic was a blindside disruptor and, as enterprises get back up from the blindside hit, the focus shifts from the diminishing return of investing in supply chain for cost optimization and turns back to the double-digit revenue hits enterprises took due to pandemic-fueled disruptions. The board focus is now on gaming out what other events could have a similar impact on business resiliency that the pandemic has had.

Does the boardroom see value in ecosystems yet?

Boards generally are populated by mature executives well versed in the current ways of working. Ecosystem business models are not a legacy best practice with which TBR would expect many board members to be familiar. They are too new. The idea of taking huge sunk investment costs and donating them to a buyer/supplier consortium will likely be anathema to many boards, but, as technology has proven time and again, open-source communities accelerate innovation. Linux/Red Hat represents just one illustration of that value creation in technology.

Advisory firms have permission to play to educate boards on ecosystem business model best practices

TBR hears a constant refrain in its discussions with services firms that people and process are the constraints and not the technology itself. This rings true with large enterprises but not necessarily with the small businesses comprising many of the Tier 3 and Tier 4 suppliers in enterprise supply chains. Outlining the value of a resilient supply chain will be an easy boardroom sell based on the current pandemic-related constraints being felt throughout the global economy. Convincing the board to contribute sunk IP investments to a consortium will be a harder sell. If any services entities can convince the boards of this efficacy, it will be the tax and audit advisory partners who have been providing business guidance to enterprises for centuries.

TBR’s recently published November 2021 Digital Transformation: Voice of the Customer Research bears out these notions. Based on survey data, respondents allocate 13% of their digital transformation services budget to business advisory services, another 16% to IT advisory services and an impressive 43% for managed services. TBR believes these managed services will more frequently flow from the advisory-led firms rather than the technology-led firms given the advisory firms’ advantage in knowing the business rules and business risks to digitization more than how to get the technology plumbing to work seamlessly.

Figure 1

From a straight technology perspective, firms invest in cloud computing, cybersecurity, IoT and analytics for digital transformation. Cloud localizes the activity where the firm wants it, cyber mitigates risk, IoT allows for more workflow automation, and analytics tells the business leaders what is important from the frictionless business flows. Cloud similarly was brought to the fore during the pandemic given the need to accommodate remote workers and reduce the amount of on-premises IT equipment requiring on-site staff.

Figure 2

Of course, all of these statements hinge on having IT platform plumbing built correctly and then transforming the business workflows that sit atop the IT platform. Figure 3 highlights the need for this gradual rollout strategy. Right now, improving IT operations management dominates the list of respondents’ digital transformation objectives. In two years, however, there will be a string of different business workflows on the customer docket. Workflows are automating business processes that often engage with other corporate entities and customers. This is where the deep knowledge of business rules and business risks come into play, and where tax and audit firms have clear market distinction.

Figure 3

Technology-led firms, hyperscale cloud companies and equipment manufacturers will certainly all play roles in moving industries further along the path of digitization. But just as business is turning to ecosystems, so too must the technology-based firms move to ecosystem offers where advisory-led firms will increasingly take the leadership role to advise boards in formulating business risk and resiliency policies that drag the tech stack participants along as the derived decision from the C-Suite aspirations.

Supply chain is the current example where tech innovations, business rules and employee training will give businesses competitive advantage providedthose ecosystems extend the IP value to the Tier 3 and Tier 4 suppliers. Like a chain only being as strong as the weakest link, ecosystem networks are only as strong as the weakest participant.

The statement stands for all business ecosystems. Other aspects of the business value chain come to the fore as different events trigger different reactions and technological choke points in need of modernization and remediation.

Supply chain disruption: For EY, just another day in the office and another problem to solve

Know thyself and thy supply chain … or go to the board for more funding  

In early November 2021, and in reaction to the deluge of news and analysis around supply chain disruptions worldwide, TBR met with key members of EY’s supply chain to discuss their firm’s overall response to the current crisis as well as EY’s capabilities and offerings around supply chain management. Al Mendoza, Americas and US-Central Supply Chain leader, and his Europe-based and Shanghai-based counterparts, Matthew Burton and Rodrigo Cambiaghi, respectively, shared their insights on the now, next and beyond for supply chains, including a look at long-range, tectonic changes coming for global enterprises.  

Nothing about the current global supply chain disruption, which has paralyzed ports, slowed manufacturing lines and contributed to growing inflation, surprised EY. The firm’s supply chain professionals saw the deeper and more broadly felt repercussions from COVID-19 as a tsunami that woke up many enterprises to the third- and fourth-level risks they were running in their highly networked and global supply chains.

For EY, which has been working for years with clients on supply chain transformations, the supply chains that have suffered the most during the pandemic — from the peak until now — are those that, according to Mendoza, “don’t understand themselves.” These overwhelmed enterprises did not have the talent, technology or processes in place to manage a massive disruption like the pandemic, even if their suppliers did. EY expects the supply chain ecosystem to shift substantially in the near term, as enterprises learn from the chaos caused by COVID-19 and implement the people, process and technology changes demanded by corporate boards, suppliers and clients.  

In reviewing the current state of the supply chain management market, Burton described traditional supply chains as “woefully inadequate” and said too many enterprises maintain a “linear mindset” and are comfortable with two-week timelines to adequately report on and assess existing supply chains. These enterprises, stuck with an old technology batch mentality, must invest in technology to decrease risk and derive value from their supply chains. Luckily for supply chain officers, the entire supply chain discussion has moved to the board level. In Burton’s assessment, a supply chain officer can “say ‘supply chain’ and you get funding,” as enterprises increasingly expect supply chain management to move from a cost center to differentiation across the value chain. Burton added that boards “were cost-driven and are now resilience-driven.”

TBR has repeatedly heard supply chain issues have reached board levels, but Burton’s explicit connection between disruptions and funding brought clarity and underscores one of the challenges consultancies such as EY face in working with large-scale clients: Every transformational challenge is a boardroom issue and demands funding, even as funding streams remain finite. In TBR’s view, EY’s close relationships with C-Suites and boards likely provide the firm with openings to anticipate, understand and benefit from shifting budgetary priorities around supply chain and other transformational issues.  

Now: Not enough talent and inadequate technology — an age-old story 

For EY’s clients, taking that boardroom directive and investing in technology, people and process improvements cannot happen quickly enough, in part because some enterprises continue managing their supply chains with what Cambiaghi described as “primitive technology.” Notably, primitive technologies have been made more inefficient by a lack of skilled supply chain management practitioners, inadequate training and insufficient change management. Mendoza expanded on the talent challenge, explaining that EY has three advantages over both competitors and clients, which also compete for supply chain talent.

First, as Mendoza said, EY has made a “huge investment” in training recent years, echoing comments TBR has heard from other EY leaders and professionals. Second, the firm assimilates new talent quickly and has been a net importer of talent because of the firm’s growth and culture, sentiments also echoed by other EY leaders. And third, Mendoza said EY’s supply chain practice is led by experts in supply chain, not consulting professionals with other skills brought in to manage supply chain as an offering. Mendoza, Burton and Cambiaghi made clear their passion for supply chain reflected a sense of mission, not simply another EY capability. In TBR’s Management Consulting Benchmark, EY has the second largest Supply Chain Management revenue, when compared to its Big Four peers, behind only PwC.