Trade wars and tariff uncertainties conjure up visions of cargo ships, ports, factories and stacks of goods stranded by economic chaos, not consultants and IT services professionals. Fear, uncertainty and doubt are usually good for the consulting business, while the higher costs of running a business fuel demand for more outsourcing. This time, things might be different. This trade war, even if partially suspended for now, may significantly disrupt professional services, especially if tariffs continue creeping into new areas and the trust deficit continues to grow. Steel now, services later.

The Big Four professional services firms — Deloitte, EY, KPMG and PwC — have all been undergoing organizational changes in the last couple years. TBR regularly hears five questions about how these firms manage themselves, grow and change. Taking a longitudinal view allows TBR to see that recent restructurings, layoffs and offerings all reflect how these firms are trying to address the following: who gets the best talent, who decides what’s next, who sells, how everyone in a firm knows what everyone else does, and what role will managed services play.

PwC Middle East’s webcast provides excellent monthly insights into the region’s economies, but it is not the only active Big Four firm. As TBR reported in our Fall 2024 Management Consulting Benchmark, KPMG “announced the opening of Risk Hub in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in collaboration with Microsoft and IBM, paving the way for more in-person, tech-enabled GRC [governance, risk and compliance] discussions with regional clients embarking on their digital transformation programs.” TBR also learned in February that KPMG intends to open a new Ignition Center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in 2025, building on the firm’s global network of innovation and transformation centers.

Bottom line upfront: Understand that this is a Saudi story, not a PwC story, although undoubtedly it doesn’t feel that way in PwC’s corridors right now. Saudi Arabia has an opportunity to send some critical messages to players in the country, in the region and globally, and the kingdom is taking advantage.

The long-sought-after growth of strong non-oil economies, the eventual weaning of these pivotal Middle East countries from subservience to the price of oil is happening now and happening quickly. And should a trade war break out between the U.S. and the European Union (EU) or the U.S. and China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — and the rest of the Middle East economies — will suffer. A production surge by the world’s largest oil producer — the U.S. — would further dampen oil prices, constraining Middle East governments’ budgets. Not everything is perfect, but certainly the big picture looks promising: Non-oil economies in oil-led countries have shown persistent, seemingly lasting growth.