Entries by Chris Antlitz, Principal Analyst

Ericsson’s Biggest Customers and Partners (Operators) Are Holding it Back

Ericsson has competitive technology, but its overreliance on CSPs to purchase that technology and/or scale it into end markets remains a weakness that will continue to hamper the company’s ability to participate more significantly in key growth domains, such as PCN. On the network API and communications application side, progress is being made and some scale is occurring, but Ericsson and its CSP partners are up against relatively fast-moving, well-resourced and more specialized entities, most notably hyperscalers and other digital-native players. Addressing the telecom industry’s weaknesses and shortcomings in these market areas will require more investment in channel development and more robust strategic partnerships with entities such as government contractors, GSIs and niche, domain-specific SIs.

Trump Could be the Worst (or Best) Thing Ever for the Telecom Industry

The Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars have demonstrated how warfighting has evolved with technology, prompting a reassessment of military strategy, assets and the production of military-related equipment, especially by the U.S. Department of Defense and NATO members in Europe. Additionally, with the U.S. now retreating from Ukraine, Europe is forced to revitalize its own military industrial complex. All of this incurs more spend on military and defense, with mobile technology set to be a prominent feature of new systems and solutions.

What Spectrum Will 6G Use?

The telecom industry continues to struggle with realizing new revenue and deriving ROI from 5G, even after five years of market development. TBR continues to see no solution to this persistent challenge, and with no catalyst on the horizon to change the situation, CSPs’ appetite for and scope of investment in 6G will likely be limited.

6G’s Fate Depends on the Level of Government Intervention

6G will ultimately happen, and commercial deployment of 6G-branded networks will likely begin in the late 2020s (following the ratification of 3rd Generation Partnership Project [3GPP] Release 21 standards, which is tentatively slated to be complete in 2028). However, it remains to be seen whether 6G will be a brand only or a legitimate set of truly differentiated features and capabilities that bring broad and significant value to CSPs and the global economy.