Procurement delays and civilian-market freezes strain advisory-led FSIs, but mission-centric contractors leverage defense and intelligence demand to offset shutdown-related headwinds heading into FFY26
The 43-day U.S. federal government shutdown, the longest in history, came to a welcome end on Nov. 13, 2025, but for some federal systems integrators (FSIs), the shutdown’s impact could linger well into federal fiscal year 2026 (FFY26). According to the Professional Services Council, the national trade association for federal technology and professional services contractors, it will take three to five days for agency functions to return to normal for each day of the shutdown, implying that operations at some agencies may not return to normal until March 2026.
The impact on the FSIs during CY4Q25 varied by vendor, though most contractors reported little to no impact on programs deemed mission-essential (mostly defense, intelligence and law enforcement programs) or those not funded by discretionary budgets. In recent earnings commentaries, interviews and podcasts, FSIs also described procurement delays, slower customer adjudications on bids under review, and slower project starts for programs launching in CY4Q25. The civilian market was hit especially hard, and TBR believes that new civil IT programs will be scarce through at least the first half of FFY26 (CY1Q26) with minimal scope expansions or even cuts to existing engagements.
Not surprisingly, advisory-focused FSIs like Accenture Federal Services (AFS) and Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) suffered moderate to significant growth headwinds, primarily in their respective civilian units, exacerbating the impact of cancellations and cuts to consulting engagements considered expendable by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) earlier in 2025. BAH lowered its FY26 (ending March 31, 2026) guidance for revenue and top-line growth for a second straight quarter in its FY2Q26 (CY3Q25) earnings call. BAH also estimated that in FY26 the stoppage would cause a $30 million loss in revenue and $15 million loss in operating profit.
CACI’s performance in CY3Q25 (the company’s FY1Q26) and its outlook for FY26 (ending June 30) stand in stark contrast to the results tendered by AFS and BAH as well as BAH’s FY26 sales growth forecast (AFS does not provide guidance). CACI posted double-digit top-line growth for the ninth straight quarter in CY3Q25 and maintained its outlook for mid- to high-single-digit overall sales growth in FY26. The company also expects stronger operating cash flows and margin performance in FY26 compared to FY25. BAH anticipates a midsingle-digit decline in revenue in FY26, its first sales contraction since FY15.
TBR attributes CACI’s continued resilient performance and expected sales growth in FY26 to the company’s strong footprint in mission-critical areas of the Department of Defense, Intelligence Community and civilian sector (i.e., NASA, the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security), which CACI will be able to leverage to fill any shutdown-related revenue gaps. CACI may suffer some delays in receivables collections in FY26, but not enough to derail its overall performance.
Like CACI, Leidos also tendered good results in CY3Q25 on the back of accelerating growth in its defense and intelligence operations and increasing traction in its digital transformation business. Leidos did not elevate its revenue guidance for FY25 (ending Dec. 31) but did raise its margin outlook and expects record profitability, despite the shutdown.
In TBR’s 3Q25 Leidos report we wrote, “By leaving its sales and growth outlook unchanged, the company is acknowledging the possibility of a negative impact from the federal shutdown, although TBR does not anticipate a significant disruption. Any shutdown-related headwinds in 4Q25 will be more than offset by robust growth in Leidos’ Defense Systems and National Security & Digital units, where large-scale wins in the unclassified and classified spaces are ramping up, inorganic revenue is accruing, and lingering DOGE-related headwinds on digital modernization programs are easing.” We do not anticipate any surprises when Leidos tenders its CY4Q25 and FY25 fiscal results in early February 2026. In fact, as the shutdown ended in November, we project Leidos’ FY25 sales and growth will be closer to the top of its guidance and may even surpass the high-end of its projected revenue range as momentum continues building in Leidos’ defense unit.
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/capital-building_pexels.png10801080John Caucis, Senior Analysthttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngJohn Caucis, Senior Analyst2025-12-17 08:59:402025-12-17 08:59:40Shutdown Ends, but Federal Contractors Face a Slow Return to Normal
What is the demand for agentic AI from federal agencies?
Federal agencies have shown increasing interest in agentic AI, fueled largely by efficiency mandates from the Trump administration. These mandates, which originated primarily from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), are expected to continue at least until the second half of federal fiscal year 2026 (FFY26). There are unconfirmed reports that DOGE has been disbanded and that the U.S. Office of Personnel Management has taken over DOGE’s responsibilities as of 3Q25. However, TBR believes that key leaders from DOGE have transitioned into other roles within the federal government and are still working to execute on DOGE’s core mission. The Trump administration continues to aggressively push agencies to accelerate their adoption of automation technologies and modernize their IT infrastructures. At the same time, federal systems integrators (FSIs) continue to invest heavily in the development of agentic and other AI technologies.
TBR anticipates AI-led modernization will take center stage in the federal IT market in FFY26, after the disruption from DOGE and the 43-day federal shutdown that began the fiscal year subsides. Federal agencies are increasingly embracing AI technologies to automate IT management and ensure mission success. Health and human services agencies will leverage AI to enhance benefits processing, while agencies in the Department of Defense (DOD) will use AI to streamline and secure defense supply chains and enhance battlefield operations.
Which parts of the value chain will AI disrupt? And who will capture the AI revenue?
AI is fundamentally transforming public engagement and workload processing across civilian agencies. Although many call center agents, dispute adjudicators, intake processors who manually input data, and regulatory clerks are being replaced, many are being upskilled in AI technology to enhance their productivity. Internally, FSIs are offering AI training to their employees to stay ahead of AI-based disruptions in these roles. Externally, FSIs are offering AI training to policy analysts, financial auditors, supply chain operators and regulatory compliance staff in federal agencies. Often, these people are being trained by the FSI’s consultants, who have developed AI expertise since the pandemic.
Vendors with extensive portfolios of offerings that deliver AI-enabled customer experience at scale (e.g., AFS’s multilingual service and workflow automation solutions; BAH’s automated regulatory approval platform) are generating early revenue and profit streams. Civilian agencies also need to consolidate disparate systems across their operations, prompting FSIs like AFS to emphasize enterprise AI and data transformation in their offerings for the Department of Education, the Internal Revenue Service, the United States Social Security Administration, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. FSIs are also actively establishing or enhancing partnerships with commercial AI leaders, such as Palantir, to build AI-ready data networks. Among the DOD, Intelligence Community and civilian law enforcement agencies, AI is enhancing and automating data analysis, operational decision making and mission execution.
AI is upending the IT modernization process: AI-assisted code generation and test automation are accelerating DevOps adoption; security implementations increasingly feature automated controls; AI is being used to scale, monitor and repair modernization platforms; and cloud implementations increasingly depend on AI for migration mapping. Software developers, cloud and platform engineers, program auditors and cybersecurity specialists at both federal agencies and within FSIs are enhancing their productivity and relevance by upskilling in AI.
The Trump administration wants to fundamentally transform federal contracting by adopting more outcomes-based engagement models, which TBR believes will be accelerated by AI-enabled efficiencies in agency procurement processes. While the administration has furloughed large portions of the federal acquisition workforce, the remaining contracting officers, pricing analysts and acquisition planners will be required to adopt AI-based platforms and methodologies, emphasizing data-driven requirements for vendor selection and AI-driven service-level agreements. TBR has observed FSIs introducing more AI “as a Service” solutions for federal procurement — a trend we expect will accelerate in FFY26.
The most labor-intensive activities in federal operations are facing significant disruption from AI, and FSIs such as AFS, CACI and SAIC are steadily introducing new AI-enhanced accelerators, product operating models and automation tools to reduce agency dependence on human resources and increase platform-led delivery of low-level tasks.
Vendors are leveraging AI in many ways, including:
AFS expects strong bookings for its Agentforce for Public Sector, which will enable AI-based automation in federal contact centers.
SAIC enhanced its alliance with ServiceNow in 3Q25 to bring new agentic AI technologies to defense and intelligence missions.
FSIs with strong footprints in federal health IT (e.g., Leidos, BAH and Maximus) are implementing AI technologies to reduce backlogs and automate claims processing services at the Department of Health & Human Services and the VA.
Leidos’ federal civilian, defense, intelligence and healthcare clients are scaling their use of next-generation agentic AI, creating opportunities for Leidos to strengthen the security of new AI platforms. The company’s recent acquisition of Kudu was made to enhance Leidos’ capabilities in AI-enabled offensive cybersecurity.
SAIC emphasizes its partner-agnosticism to derive opportunities from the adoption of emerging commercial AI in federal IT environments.
What services are needed in a new AI world? What is needed for the transition?
While demand for AI is growing rapidly, several factors are complicating its widespread implementation across federal agencies. For example, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) has repeatedly documented that federal agencies’ “legacy” IT systems are outdated and need to be modernized. The GAO has even recommended that Congress force agencies like the Department of Energy to outline modernization strategies, given the critical nature of their systems.
Robust, modern infrastructure is necessary to fully reap the benefits of AI. Federal agencies will need to pivot away from outdated mainframe systems and archaic software as part of their digital modernization efforts. With the Trump administration aiming to reduce the headcount of non-defense agencies by 107,000 in FFY26, the adoption of scalable and secure cloud infrastructure will accelerate to ensure that AI and other productivity-boosting technologies can be implemented across the federal civilian market.
More vendors like Peraton are operating as cloud services brokers to help agencies customize their cloud platforms with third-party services, capitalizing on demand for these cloud capabilities. Investments in 5G, zero-trust security, large-scale storage and more will also be necessary to ensure agencies have cloud infrastructure capable of leveraging emerging technologies. Similarly, agencies will need guidance from FSIs as they prepare their data for AI and educate their workforce on how to use it.
Federal agencies have traditionally refused to be locked into one hyperscaler’s platform, requiring FSIs to maintain relationships with all of them to avoid limiting potential opportunities with clients. As demand for AI rapidly increases, vendors are becoming more dependent on their partner networks. They have been deepening existing relationships and seeking new allies to gain an edge in AI and other emerging technologies that align with the priorities of the Trump administration.
General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT) is one vendor tracked in TBR’s Federal IT Services Benchmark that has notably expanded its partnerships since 3Q24. For example, GDIT is working with ServiceNow to augment GDIT’s Cove AI Ops digital Accelerator with ServiceNow’s AI and machine learning IT operations platforms to optimize clients’ workflows while further exploring how AI can support federal agencies. The vendor is also working with Everfox to develop an AI solution that helps clients predict when discontented employees are likely to become insider threats, enabling preemptive security of sensitive data.
The Trump administration has strengthened the federal government’s ties with commercial technology companies through initiatives like Detachment 201: The Army’s Executive Innovation Corps and the Genesis Mission. As a result, vendors are likely to continue seeking closer relationships with these entities in FFY26, especially given the growing influence of the private sector on how both defense and civilian agencies adopt and utilize AI.
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ai-sphere_sumali-ibnu-chamid-alemedia.id_canva-pro.png10801080TBRhttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngTBR2025-12-16 09:01:222025-12-17 09:23:55Agentic AI Becomes a Federal Priority, Reshaping the IT Services Value Chain for 2026
HCLTech’s AI alignment and Foundry depth set the stage for a pivotal 2026
During an October update from HCLTech executives about the company’s overall AI strategy, TBR noted two areas that should differentiate HCLTech from its peers in the IT services and consulting space. Given the rapidly changing nature of the AI ecosystem, disruptive changes coming to IT services and consulting organizations, and broad uncertainty about AI adoption in the near term, any advantages HCLTech develops and leverages will be critical to the company’s ability to sustain market-leading growth.
Aligning alliance, acquisition and industry strategies around AI and then executing on that alignment should be one of HCLTech’s strengths. Taking full advantage of the breadth and depth of HCLTech’s AI Foundry should be another. HCLTech’s efforts in these areas have positioned it well in a wildly fluctuating market. TBR has written extensively about challenges in the AI space, particularly for IT services companies and consultancies. Based on TBR’s research, 2026 should be a pivotal year for HCLTech.
A tightly coordinated approach across acquisitions, alliances and industries sets HCLTech apart in AI
Acquisitions, alliances and industry strategies align in market-leading IT services companies, particularly around emerging technologies such as AI. Looking at HCLTech’s activities over 2025, TBR sees a layered approach to expanding AI-enabled solutions and offerings, guided by strategic decisions within acquisitions, alliances and industries. For example, in the last year the company acquired Nuance as well as Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s (HPE) Communications Technology Group, bolstering HCLTech’s AI capabilities and complementing previous acquisitions, such as Zeena and ASAP. Given the company’s modest acquisition pace relative to peers such as Accenture and Cognizant, by favoring AI-related acquisitions HCLTech has demonstrated its overall AI strategy encompasses an acquisition-forward approach.
In concert with those acquisitions, HCLTech has also increased the depth and breadth of its AI technology partnerships, most notably across its ecosystem of hyperscalers as well as Databricks and Snowflake. In presenting the company’s alliances strategy, HCLTech executives noted “best-of-breed partnerships” across applications & products, models, data, infrastructure, and physical AI. Although each partnership may not be singular in the highly competitive IT services and AI market, TBR believes HCLTech’s strategy of choosing specific, named partners and going to market together with joint offerings and solutions provides some differentiation from the traditional technology-agnostic approach. HCLTech takes it a few steps further by including startups and academic institutions in the company’s overall alliances strategy. Extending an understanding of the ecosystem beyond just the largest commercial players echoes HCLTech’s decision to expand its AI alliances strategy across acquisitions and industries.
“We’re actually building some very innovative industry solutions, going beyond the horizontal data analytics and AI value chain. Our plan, obviously, is to expand the industry-focused solutions so that you shift from the horizontal value chain of data analytics and AI to more packaged industry solutions that our customers can deploy faster to create the value with AI.” — HCLTech Executive, October 2025
Rounding out the trio of aligned strategies, perhaps with AI at the center of a Venn diagram, HCLTech’s industries strategy reflects the influence of alliances and acquisitions. In a recent presentation to TBR, HCLTech executives highlighted use cases across financial services, manufacturing, utilities, and life sciences & healthcare, tracking closely with the company’s largest and fastest-growing industries. In a coordinated approach across acquisitions and alliances, HCLTech has launched at least eight AI-enabled solutions specifically attuned to HCLTech’s ecosystem partners, such as InsightGen, an Amazon Web Services (AWS)-based tool for financial services clients. Further, HCLTech has established AI-enabled HCLTech Industry Focused Repeatable Solutions, demonstrating the company’s emphasis on playing to its strengths and developing additional revenue growth from its top industries.
In TBR’s view, HCLTech’s overall AI strategy benefits from a coherent and aligned story around alliances, acquisitions and industry plays. AI-enabled solutions, AI factories, AI platforms and AI partnerships have become table stakes for every scaled IT services company, making differentiation nearly impossible on those three areas alone. Orchestrating acquisitions and industry strategies along with alliance partners to help them sell customers on HCLTech’s value can truly become differentiators as part of the company’s long-term plan. In the near term, keeping these elements aligned will be essential for 2026 growth.
HCLTech’s AI Foundry emerges as a full-stack engine for talent, trust and future AI growth
AI Foundry was launched more than a year ago, and HCLTech now considers it a cornerstone of the company’s overall AI program, as noted in the recent HCLTech presentation to TBR. One HCLTech executive said the “evolved” AI Foundry has become about “managing the data-to-dollar value chain better. It’s powered by robust, world-class infrastructure that is hybrid and multicloud, giving customers flexibility to use HCLTech software or other ecosystem tools.”
“Legacy — and maybe more accurately, proven — skills and capabilities lend immediate credibility to what HCLTech brings to clients and partners with AI Force. Further, a significant part of what separates HCLTech from immediate peers is the company’s IP-driven services model, a strategic difference that becomes increasingly relevant as clients ask for more GenAI-enabled services and less labor-dependent services. HCLTech’s business model is not simply enhanced by AI Force and other IP-driven solutions; it might actually be saved by those capabilities as the entire IT services business model undergoes significant, AI-induced change.” — TBR special report, HCLTech AI Force: Scalable, Modular and Backed by Proven AI Expertise
With components including business templates, AI agent, AI policies & governance, and prebuilt analytics & AI utilities, HCLTech AI Foundry appears to capture nearly every aspect of an enterprise client’s AI needs. As an HCLTech executive said during a recent briefing, AI Foundry is “unique because it leverages specialized AI agents for different personas across the data life cycle, enabling automation, actionable insights and significant productivity improvements.” TBR cannot assess the uniqueness of HCLTech’s AI Foundry but notes that building this capability brings three immediate benefits to HCLTech.
First, AI Foundry’s completeness sends a clear message to clients and technology partners that HCLTech has the commitment to and the capabilities in AI to be a trusted, scale-delivering partner and provider. In a hype-filled market around an ever-changing emerging technology, the most compelling stories include breadth and depth, which AI Foundry offers.
Second, a high-functioning AI Foundry should help HCLTech recruit and retain AI talent. Every discussion TBR has with IT services companies, consultancies, technology decision makers, startups and ecosystem players includes a lament about the lack of AI talent. Demonstrating leadership commitment and a sustained willingness to invest should bolster HCLTech’s attractiveness to potential and existing talent.
Third, AI Foundry helps position HCLTech for growth. Four years ago, enterprises were not investing in generative AI (GenAI) licenses, and two years ago, IT services companies were selling robotic process automation but not robots (agentic AI). In a year, a new evolution of AI could reignite the AI hype cycle, and HCLTech is well positioned to take advantage given the completeness of its AI strategy, including AI Foundry. As one HCLTech executive recently said, “Our entire AI strategy is full stack … from physical AI to eventually the AI product, apps and application integration.” TBR would add that governance, prebuilt utilities and ecosystem tools within AI Foundry underscore how “full stack” HCLTech’s AI strategy has become.
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ai-generated-8142577_1280.jpg7111280Jill Cookinhamhttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngJill Cookinham2025-12-10 08:52:552025-12-12 09:08:10HCLTech Heads into 2026 with AI Advantages
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Partners remain hopeful about GenAI opportunity but still need to build trust through monetization
Key takeaways
Although generative AI (GenAI) is dominating partnership activities, the technology’s actual revenue contribution remains insignificant.
Cloud providers have done a better job of reducing competition with partners, but it still happens, particularly at the field level.
Everyone believes trust and transparency are key to a successful alliance, but cloud vendors place a lot of weight on more tangible factors, like pricing and coinvestment.
When three parties are involved, win rate and deal size potential increase, but orchestrating these relationships remains a challenge, largely from a sales perspective.
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Trust built on delivery, alignment and collaboration enables vendors and partners to present unified strategies and win complex enterprise deals
Drivers of a successful alliance
Across all vendors types, trust was deemed the most important attribute of a successful alliance. That said, compared to ISVs and systems integrators (SIs), cloud vendors value measurable drivers such as willingness to coinvest, alignment of sales incentives, and pricing model flexibility.
Services vendors are leading the charge with outcome-based pricing, though these vendors are far from delivering this model at scale. Although we expect some SaaS vendors will continue exploring outcome-based pricing, at least as part of a hybrid model, the infrastructure vendors are not equipped to implement a similar strategy, suggesting a potential challenge ecosystem participants will need to navigate.
Drivers of a Successful Alliance (Source: TBR 1H25)
Given their enterprise access, global systems integrators (GSIs) remain invaluable to hyperscalers, creating opportunities for SIs to expand in areas increasingly influenced by GenAI like managed services
Priority partner types
Customers are increasingly realizing that to take advantage of AI, they need their infrastructure and applications modernized in the cloud. With the vast amount of enterprise data still residing on premises, there is a lot of opportunity ahead, and the cloud vendors recognize the influence SIs have with enterprises still carrying large amounts of tech debt. In fact, the big three hyperscalers are expecting partner attach rates above 80% for large deals, a strong recognition that the SIs are using the C-Suite to close deals, largely within the Fortune 1000.
Cloud providers are also paying more attention to managed services providers (MSPs). To be clear, this is not just niche MSPs but also existing SI partners that are expanding further into managed services. We believe these results are largely driven by GenAI, which is creating a need for services vendors to not only help customize an AI model but also maintain that model as part of an ongoing initiative. AWS has been making heavy investments here by increasing Market Development Funds (MDFs) for MSP partners and validating MSP Specialization partners on the AWS Marketplace landing page for professional services.
GenAI ISVs have become an emerging priority, and that is one of the big ways AI is changing alliances: There is simply a bigger field to choose from. Our survey also found that cloud vendors’ priorities over the next three years will focus less on re-tiering existing partners or rethinking investments and more on bringing new partners into their programs. We believe this speaks to all the new model providers and AI startups cloud vendors are trying to attract.
AI shifts alliances from an optional enhancement to a core requirement, forcing ISVs and partners to prove differentiated value beyond hype
Vendor perception
AI and GenAI are beginning to influence ISV partnerships, though most respondents still see themselves in the early innings. Nearly half of ISVs indicated GenAI has had no current impact on their alliance activity, underscoring the cautious pace of adoption. Where ISVs are engaging, the emphasis is largely on internal training programs and selective productivity use cases rather than external, cosell opportunities. ISVs are prioritizing workforce readiness and operational efficiency before extending GenAI into broader customer-facing partnerships. At the same time, expectations are shifting. A clear majority of respondents anticipate at least a moderate impact from GenAI on their alliances over the next three years, suggesting a steady transition from experimentation to applied use cases. Microsoft Azure was cited by nearly half of respondents as the cloud provider best positioned to capitalize, reflecting its Copilot-led attach strategy and strong marketplace presence.
Concerns remain pronounced, particularly around data security, IP ownership and regulatory alignment. These risks create friction in building joint solutions, as ISVs weigh the benefits of innovation against the potential liabilities of codeveloping with hyperscalers. Integration complexity adds another layer of hesitation, especially for smaller ISVs without extensive engineering resources. Overcoming these barriers will require trust frameworks that clarify accountability for data, intellectual property and compliance. For ISVs, the path forward lies in balancing internal GenAI experimentation with external signaling to partners, while building the governance models needed to scale alliances confidently. The result will be alliances that are both commercially viable and resilient to the risks that have so far hampered broader adoption.
Cloud Provider Expectations Over the Next Three Years: ISV Respondents (Source: TBR 1H25)
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/TBR-Spotlight-Report.png10801080TBRhttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngTBR2025-12-05 09:30:282025-12-05 09:30:28Cloud Voice of the Partner
2025 Brooklyn 6G Summit, Brooklyn, New York, Nov. 5-7, 2025 — More than 300 in-person attendees and 1,600 virtual attendees from academia, technology standards bodies, the public sector, industry analyst firms, network infrastructure and device vendors, communication service providers (CSPs), satellite network operators, semiconductor firms, hyperscalers and other stakeholders of the broader wireless technology ecosystem gathered at the Tandon School of Engineering at New York University in Brooklyn for a mix of presentations, fireside chats and panel discussions regarding the future of wireless networks, with a focus on 6G. There were more than 35 exhibits on display from graduate students at various U.S. universities as well as from a range of telecom ecosystem entities showcasing 6G-related innovations. A broad range of other 6G-related topics were discussed, including the role of AI and machine learning in networks, sustainability (especially related to energy), standards development, spectrum policy, public-private collaboration, and nonterrestrial networks’ role in the ecosystem. The 12th annual event was hosted by Nokia and NYU WIRELESS. This year’s event provided the usual cellular ecosystem updates, but one of the major themes was how the telecom industry should approach converting wireless innovation into value, especially economic value. Bell Labs’ 100th anniversary was also commemorated at the event.
TBR perspective
There is no doubt that the global economy is in the midst of an AI super cycle. What is doubtful, though, is whether the telecom industry will rise to the occasion to support (and monetize) opportunities that arise from AI. There are several fundamental challenges endemic to the telecom industry that could keep it from participating in the AI economy in a significant way, and TBR believes the AI economy could disintermediate at least a portion of the telecom industry.
The AI ecosystem currently operates in 18-month innovation cycles, and the telecom industry remains mired in its decade-long generational cycles; this dissonance will create friction and could be the biggest impediment to the convergence of the AI economy with the telecom industry. Will the rapidly evolving AI ecosystem wait for the telecom industry to support it, or will it be forced to move beyond telecom incumbents and institutions to avoid being held back?
One thing is certain: AI will fundamentally change how networks are utilized, necessitating a new network architecture. The telecom industry, which includes the cellular ecosystem, moves incredibly slowly, and this slowness is diametrically opposed to how the AI ecosystem (and other tech theme areas) moves. Something is going to break, and the real questions are what and when.
Impact and opportunities
A new network architecture is required for AI, as current networks will not suffice
One key aspect of AI workloads, especially those emanating from end-user devices, is that they are uplink-intensive, meaning they rely more heavily on uplink resources from the network than on downlink resources. This is a fundamental issue because macro, cellular-based networks are optimized for downlink capacity (typically a 10-1 downlink-uplink ratio from a resource-allocation perspective). CSPs will need to make significant investments in new network technologies and rethink how spectrum resources are utilized, to optimize networks for uplink.
AI traffic also tends to require lower latency than current networks and can support higher bursts of traffic than video and other media consumption. AI networks require uplink bandwidth, lower latency (compared to current networks) and the ability to handle higher bursts in traffic patterns at scale, and none of these requirements can be achieved just by increasing capacity. These requirements are the opposite of how networks are architected today — optimized for downlink, best-effort or good-enough latency, and optimized for more predictable traffic patterns — necessitating significant investment by CSPs. This will be a gradual transition, as there is no silver bullet to address this problem quickly. The best approach seems to be decoupling the downlink from the uplink for transmit power differentials, which would enable network resources to dynamically adapt to traffic demands in real time. Additionally, there is concern as to how willing CSPs will be to invest in uplink when ROI is uncertain.
6G will primarily be a software upgrade
Unlike prior Gs, 6G is unlikely to be a massive hardware refresh, but will instead build on top of existing 5G RAN and 5G core (the 5G SA [standalone] architecture) infrastructure as a software upgrade. This is the most likely outcome as CSPs are highly unlikely to have the appetite or the financial wherewithal to invest in another massive network refresh with unclear ROI.
There will be some hardware elements to invest in, such as processing capability that enhances programmability and maximizes AI support, or radios that support new frequencies not covered by existing RAN via software-defined radio technology, but hardware investments will be a fraction of what was spent in prior cellular generations. As a result, TBR expects a shallower capex curve during the 6G cycle, more closely resembling the 5G Advanced spend curve thus far.
Trump likes 6G
The Trump administration has designated several technologies and resources as strategic national priorities. Much as he did during his first administration, designating 5G as a national strategic priority, Trump views 6G as equally, if not more important. 6G will be leveraged for a broad range of defense and public safety, as well as societal use cases, which makes investment and success with the technology a public issue. Integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) is a 6G-related use case of particular interest to the U.S. government, for national security considerations. The government is heavily involved in 6G R&D-related endeavors, both directly and indirectly, through proxy programs such as the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the U.S. National Science Foundation, as well as government agencies such as the U.S. Department of War.
TBR expects the Trump administration to apply similar approaches to seeding and bolstering U.S. innovation in 6G, much like it has in the production of rare earth metals, AI, nuclear power, and other key technologies. As part of this, it is reasonable to expect U.S. government equity investments and policy support. The recent Nokia deal with NVIDIA and the U.S. and Nokia agreement both align with this policy.
Cellular standards are not only being regionalized due to geopolitical and nationalistic considerations but are also showing cracks within regional ecosystems. For example, non-standardized technologies are increasingly coexisting with 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP)-based cellular technology. Standards in cloud data centers, optics, chip design and end-user devices are fragmenting, creating technological walled gardens.
For example, hyperscalers now have enough global scale to justify pursuing their own technology standards, and it is reasonable that these companies could, at some point, rival or eclipse traditional standards bodies, such as the 3GPP, in ecosystem influence and market power. Potential catalysts for a change such as this could include the need for AI-native networks (thereby reducing dependencies on CSPs for infrastructure investment and innovation road map alignment) and the need to support the rapidly evolving AR/VR market, which holds multitrillion-dollar revenue potential for hyperscalers.
Unlocking stranded spectrum assets: A prerequisite for 6G leadership
The mobile industry continues to beat the drum for more spectrum, but it should instead focus on fully utilizing the spectrum already allocated. TBR notes there are vast tranches of spectrum in the U.S. market that are broadly underutilized, either for technical or economic reasons. And challenges will only worsen as the industry aims to bring upper midband frequencies into the fray, which have greater propagation challenges and are less suited for macro coverage.
The U.S. needs to do a better job, guided by government institutions like the Federal Communications Commission, of utilizing CBRS, C-Band, 6GHz and mmWave bands, which are woefully underutilized today. For example, only a relatively small portion of midband spectrum has been deployed in the U.S. market to date, implying that well over half of it has not yet been put to use. (CSPs are either sitting on it or hoarding it.) Most 4G and 5G network traffic in the U.S. today runs over low bands such as 600MHz to 800MHz and the lower midband (1GHz to 2.6GHz, especially 2.5GHz), with C-Band increasing but nowhere near its full utilization potential. MmWave bands hold promise, but for economic and technical reasons, they were used only in very specific situations, mostly for LAN capacity.
Additionally, spectrum warehousing entities like EchoStar (which recently reluctantly agreed to sell a portion of its vast spectrum holdings to Starlink and AT&T) and private equities are still sitting on large tranches of unused spectrum. The government should redirect its efforts toward addressing these market dislocations rather than straining to bring new spectrum to a market that might not even be used (case in point, CBRS). This should be a mandatory government push because dislocations created by negative externalities of capitalism threaten to keep the U.S. behind China in key technological domains; specifically, corporations with a scarcity mindset are hoarding, but not necessarily using, the spectrum resources they have. The U.S. is already behind China across several key technologies (e.g., 5G, hypersonic missiles, electric batteries and vehicles, rare earth element processing); it is unacceptable for the U.S. to also fall behind on 6G.
TBR believes that the spectrum already allocated to CSPs will be deployed once the business case for its use is secured. Spectrum resources will come out of the shadows once ROI is clear. The government can help in this regard.
Data protectionism is stifling innovation and holding back the U.S.
A major limitation for academia and the broader mobile ecosystem is the lack of raw data to leverage for innovation. Data is viewed as a strategic and valuable asset, and the reality is that companies and governments do not want to share their data for various reasons. This limits academia, research institutions and other companies in what can be used for educational purposes as well as their ability to innovate by training their models and fine-tuning their technologies. Here again, China has an advantage over the U.S. because its authoritarian model can accelerate the pace of innovation in targeted areas.
Conclusion
The AI and cellular ecosystems are moving at different speeds rather than converging onto parallel tracks, which is a major issue and could lead to a breaking point for the technology industry. If hyperscalers feel like CSPs are holding them back, they can and will, as history validates, work around CSPs and take greater control over their own destinies.
This could include building their own standards for network infrastructure, much like they have for IT infrastructure and at the endpoint-device level and build out AI-optimized networks far greater in scope than they have been building (see TBR’s Hyperscaler Digital Ecosystem Market Landscape and Hyperscaler Capex Market Forecast reports for more information). Since it is unlikely the telecom ecosystem will fundamentally change, as it is not geared to do so, greater disintermediation and changing competitive dynamics are likely to occur. It is very possible that 6G could be the last “G.”
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/gold-6g-on-tablet_niphon-subsri_canva-pro.png10801080Chris Antlitz, Principal Analysthttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngChris Antlitz, Principal Analyst2025-12-04 08:58:262025-12-04 08:58:26Will the U.S. Government and Hyperscalers Push the Mobile Industry to the Forefront of 6G?
Oracle AI World, Las Vegas, Oct. 13–16: Newly rebranded as Oracle AI World, the theme of this year’s event was “AI changes everything,” a message supported with on-the-ground customer use cases in industries like healthcare, hospitality and financial services. New agents in Oracle Applications, the launch of Oracle AI Data Platform, and notable projections for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue also reaffirmed the emphasis Oracle is placing on AI. Though not immune to the risks and uncertainties of the AI market at large, Oracle is certainly executing, with the bulk of revenue from AI contracts already booked in its multibillion-dollar remaining performance obligations (RPO) balance. And yet, as OCI becomes a more prominent part of the Oracle business, big opportunities remain for Oracle, particularly in how it partners, prices and simply exists within the data ecosystem.
OCI rounds out the Oracle stack, strengthening its ability to execute on enterprise AI opportunity
2025 has been a transformative year for Oracle. With the Stargate Project — which pushed RPO to over $450 billion — and the recent promotion of two product leaders to co-CEOs, Oracle is undergoing a big transition that aims to put AI at the center of everything. In both AI and non-AI scenarios, the missing piece has been OCI, which plays a critical role in Oracle’s long-solidified application and database businesses.
But now that OCI is transitioning to a robust, scalable offering that could account for as much as 70% of corporate revenue by FY29 (up from 22% today), Oracle is much better positioned than in the early days of the Gen2 architecture. For the AI opportunity, this means using the full stack — cost-effective compute, operational applications data, and what is now a fully integrated AI-database layer to store and build on that data — to guide the market toward reasoning models, making AI more relevant for the enterprise.
Steps Oracle is taking to simplify PaaS have already been taken by others, but the database will be Oracle’s big differentiator
Cross-platform entitlements from the data lake mark a big evolution in Oracle’s data strategy
For a long time, most of the market seemed against open standards, but in the era of AI, storing data from disparate tools into a single architecture that works with open formats and engines has become common practice. With SQL and Java, open standards have been part of Oracle since the beginning, but Oracle is pivoting more heavily in this direction, with what seems to be a broader vision to support analytics use cases on top of the operational database, where Oracle is strongest. For example, at AI World, Oracle launched Autonomous Data Lakehouse; given how the market has revolved around data lakes and their interoperability, this launch has been a long time coming.
An evolution of Autonomous Data Warehouse, Autonomous Data Lakehouse is integrated directly into the Oracle Database, meaning the database can connect to the data lakehouse and read and write data in open formats, including Apache Iceberg, as well as analytics engines like Spark that are used to get data in and out of the lakehouse. Aside from reaffirming Oracle’s commitment to open standards and providing a testimonial for the Apache Iceberg ecosystem at large, Autonomous Data Lakehouse sends a strong message to the market that a converged architecture does not equal lock-in; with Oracle, customers can still pull data from a range of databases, cloud warehouses, streaming and big data tools. When it comes to accessing data in applications, this is specific to Oracle applications.
As OCI becomes a more prominent part of the business and agentic AI further disrupts the applications market, it will be interesting to see whether Oracle takes the opportunity to support external applications natively. Last year’s decision to launch a native Salesforce integration within Fusion Data Intelligence (FDI), enabling customers to combine their CRM and Fusion data within the lakehouse architecture, suggests Oracle may be moving further in the direction of delivering its PaaS value outside its own apps base, which would create more market opportunity for Oracle.
The days of Oracle’s ‘red-stack’ tactics are starting to fade
Getting data into a unified architecture is only half the battle; a big gap at the governance layer for managing different data assets in Iceberg format remains. Addressing this piece, Oracle is launching its own data catalog as part of Autonomous Data Lakehouse, which, importantly, can work with the three core operational catalogs on the market: AWS Glue, Databricks Unity Catalog and Snowflake Polaris (open version).
Customers will be able to access Iceberg tables in these catalogs and query that data within Oracle. While for some customers a single catalog with a unified API may be ideal, in most scenarios, running multiple engines over the same data is the motivator. Oracle’s recognition of this is a strong testament to where the market is headed in open standards and in making it easier to federate data between platforms.
AIData platform should provide a lot of simplicity for customers
The Autonomous Data Lakehouse ultimately serves as the foundation of one of Oracle’s other big announcements: AI Data Platform. At its core, AI Data Platform brings together the data foundations — in this case, Autonomous Data Lakehouse integrated with the database — and the app development layer with various out-of-the-box AI models, analytics tools and machine learning frameworks.
Acting as a new OCI PaaS service, AI Data Platform is more a culmination of existing OCI services, though it still marks a big effort by Oracle to bring the AI and data layers closer together, helping create a single point of entry for customers to build AI on unified data. To be clear, this approach is not new, and vendors have long recognized the importance of unifying data and app development layers. Microsoft helped lead the charge with the 2023 launch of Fabric, which is now offering natively embedded SQL and NoSQL databases, followed by Amazon Web Services’ (AWS) 2024 launch of SageMaker AI.
Both offerings leverage the lakehouse architecture and offer integrated access to model tuning and serving tools in addition to the AI models themselves. Of course, in instances like these, Oracle’s differentiation will always rest on the database and the ability for customers to more easily connect to their already contextualized enterprise data in the database for LLMs.
As Oracle becomes more akin to a true hyperscaler, both partners and Oracle must adapt
With AI, platforms are playing a much more prominent role. Customers no longer want to jump through multiple services to complete a given data task. They also want a consistent foundation that can keep pace with rapid technological change. Six of Oracle’s core SI partners are collectively investing $1.5 billion in training over 8,000 practitioners in AI Data platform, suggesting both Oracle and the ecosystem recognize this shift in customer expectations. It also speaks to the pivot Oracle’s partners may be trying to make. As Oracle strengthens its play in IaaS/PaaS, services partners — which still get the bulk of their Oracle business from SaaS engagements — may need to adjust.
The challenge is that the SIs have already invested so much in AWS, Microsoft and Google Cloud, so viewing Oracle through the hyperscaler lens may be easier said than done. For context, research from TBR’s Cloud Ecosystem Report shows that 10 SIs collectively generated over $45 billion in revenue from their AWS, Azure and Google Cloud Platform (GCP) practices in 2024. Put simply, it may take some effort on Oracle’s part to get SIs to think about Oracle on, say, AWS before AWS on AWS. This effort equates to investments in knowledge management and incentives, coupled with an overall willingness to partner in new ways.
The good news is AI Data Platform, which is available across the hyperscalers, will unlock integration, configuration and customization opportunities, resulting in an immediate win for Oracle in the form of more AI workloads, and eventual sticking points for the GSIs. In the long term, AI Data Platform will serve as a test case for partners’ ability to execute on a previously underutilized portion of the Oracle cloud stack and Oracle’s willingness to help them do so.
Role of SaaS apps pivots around industry outcomes
OCI, including PaaS services like AI Data Platform, is becoming a more prominent part of Oracle’s business. Next quarter (FY2Q26) will mark the inflection point in the Oracle Cloud business when IaaS overtakes SaaS in revenue. But for perspective, a lot of the IaaS momentum is coming from cloud-native and AI infrastructure customers leveraging Oracle for cost-effective compute. Oracle has over 700 AI customers in infrastructure alone, with related annual contract revenue growing in the triple digits year-to-year. Within the enterprise, however, the operational data residing in Oracle’s applications remains integral to the company’s strategy and differentiation.
At Oracle AI World, a lot of the focus was on the progress Oracle has made in delivering out-of-the-box agents not just across the Fusion suite but also in industry applications. Oracle reported it has 600 agents and assistants across the entire apps portfolio, and while the majority are within Fusion, more agents are coming online in the industry suite. These agents will continue to be free of charge, including for the 2,400 customers already taking advantage of AI in Oracle’s applications. While Oracle has long offered a suite of industry apps that are strategically key in helping it appeal to LOB decision makers, Industry Apps will start taking a more central role in Oracle’s strategy, coinciding with the recent appointment of Mike Sicilia, previous head of Industry Apps, to co-CEO.
At the event, it became clear that Oracle is starting to view its applications less as Fusion versus Industry and more as a unified SaaS layer. As customers remain under pressure to deliver outcomes from their generative AI (GenAI) investments, industry alignment will be key, especially as they increasingly find value in using this industry data to tune their own models. As such, TBR can see scenarios in which Oracle increasingly leads with its industry apps, potentially unlocking client conversations in the core Fusion back-office.
With all the talk about catering to outcomes with its industry apps, it will be interesting to see how far Oracle goes to align its pricing model accordingly. It may seem bold, but two decades ago, Salesforce disrupted legacy players, including Oracle, with the SaaS model. Eventually, a vendor will take the risk and align its pricing with the outcomes it claims its applications can deliver.
Final thoughts
The theme of this year’s Oracle AI World was “AI changes everything,” and Oracle is investing at every layer of the stack to address this opportunity. Key considerations at each component include:
IaaS: It would be very hard to dispute Oracle’s success reentering the IaaS market with the Gen2 architecture. Large-scale AI contracts will fuel OCI growth, making the IaaS business more than 10x what it is today in four years. With this growth, Oracle will give hyperscalers that have been in this business far longer a run for their money. We know OCI will be a big contender for net-new AI workloads. What will be more telling is if OCI can continue to gain share with large enterprises, which are heavily invested with other providers.
PaaS: Oracle’s steps to simplify the PaaS layer with AI Data Platform, underpinned by Autonomous Data Lakehouse, will help elevate the role of the database within the broader Oracle stack. OLAP specialists will try to disrupt the core database market, and SaaS vendors, even those lacking the storage layer, will position themselves as data companies. Oracle’s ability to deliver a unified platform underpinned by the database to help customers build on their private data in a highly integrated way make it well positioned to address the impending wave of AI reasoning.
SaaS: Today, cost-aware customers are less interested in reinventing processes that are working; they are investing in the data layer. In the next few years, the SaaS landscape will begin to look very different as a result of agentic AI. With these factors in mind, our estimates suggest the PaaS market will overtake SaaS, albeit marginally, in 2029. In Fusion, Oracle has undergone a big evolution from embedded agents to custom development to an agentic marketplace, but the features themselves are ultimately table stakes. A lot of SaaS vendors have tried and failed to do industry suites well. Oracle’s industry portfolio, though still playing the role of application, represents an opportunity for Oracle to go to market on outcomes and make AI more applicable within the enterprise.
Of course, what this AI opportunity really looks like and when it will fully materialize is up for debate. The amount of AI revenue companies are generating compared to what they are investing is still incredibly small, while AI model customers that are operating at heavy losses but making big commitments to Oracle pose an added risk; though, to be fair, Oracle’s ratio will be far more favorable than those of its peers.
AI model customers that are operating at heavy losses but making big commitments to Oracle pose an added risk. But Oracle AI World only cemented that Oracle believes the risk of underinvesting far outweighs the risk of overinvesting. If the market adapts and customers show their willingness to put their own private data to work, then Oracle’s full-stack approach will ensure its competitiveness.
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/blending-human-creativity-with-ai_bilobaba-vladimir_canva-pro.png10801080Catie Merrill, Senior Analysthttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngCatie Merrill, Senior Analyst2025-11-21 11:28:012025-11-21 11:28:01Oracle’s Full-stack Strategy Underscores a High-stakes Bet on AI
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Post updated: Nov. 15, 2025
Growth in areas including mobility, FWA, IoT, MEC, PCN and public sector is only partially offsetting erosion in operators’ B2B legacy services
Revenue growth drivers
Wireless customer additions for smartphones and other connected devices
Customers migrating to higher-tier service offerings
Higher public sector revenue driven by first responder initiatives such as AT&T FirstNet as well as from large-scale federal task orders
Fixed wireless access (FWA) subscriber additions
Price increases
Adoption of value-added services in areas including SD-WAN, cybersecurity and unified communication to augment operators’ core broadband and mobility offerings
IoT, mobile edge computing (MEC) and private cellular network (PCN) deployments
Revenue growth inhibitors
Businesses reducing spending due to macroeconomic challenges including inflationary impacts related to tariffs
Legacy data solution customer disconnects, which is resulting in businesses switching to other service providers and/or lower-priced service offerings
Customers disconnecting from fixed voice services to use wireless offerings exclusively
Asset divestments and operators retiring certain legacy solutions including copper-based services
Public sector agencies reducing spending due to Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)-related cuts
U.S. Enterprise Operator Market Share and Revenue (Source: TBR)
U.S. Enterprise Operator Market Share and Revenue (Source: TBR)
Company profiles excerpt
AT&T’s enterprise wireless revenue growth was driven by FirstNet, which gained nearly 400,000 new connections in 2Q25 and partially offset continued wireline revenue declines
TBR’s assessment of AT&T’s enterprise strategies
AT&T’s total enterprise revenue decreased 4.6% year-to-year in 2Q25 to $7.6 billion, mainly as a result of AT&T Business Wireline revenue declining 9.3% year-to-year to $4.3 billion due to lower demand for legacy voice and data solutions as well as AT&T deemphasizing noncore services within its portfolio. Lower Business Wireline revenue was also attributed to the sale of AT&T’s cybersecurity business to LevelBlue in May 2024, a joint venture between AT&T and WillJam Ventures. Additionally, TBR believes AT&T’s lower Business Wireline revenue in 2Q25 was impacted by disconnects within federal agencies related to the activities of DOGE. Lower Business Wireline service revenue in 2Q25 was partially offset by fiber and advanced connectivity services growing 3.5% year-to-year, driven by higher fiber and fixed wireless revenue in the quarter.
AT&T’s enterprise wireless revenue grew 2.3% year-to-year to $3.3 billion, aided by over 398,000 FirstNet connection additions in 2Q25 to grow to a base of 7.5 million total connections.
As of July AT&T’s 5G RedCap (Reduced Capability) technology reached over 200 million POPs across the U.S. AT&T’s 5G RedCap technology enables clients to lower the cost of deploying IoT solutions by allowing devices to operate at reduced battery consumption and processing power levels while running over AT&T’s 5G SA network. AT&T also announced the certification of the Franklin Wireless RG350, its first commercially approved 5G RedCap mobile hotspot on AT&T’s network. The RG350 is designed to provide connectivity to support scenarios including remote work and travel.
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In June AT&T launched AT&T Business Voice, an all-in-one VoIP solution that enables businesses to replace legacy analog systems with a modern digital platform. The service supports multiple business lines, including fax machines, fire alarms, security systems, elevator phones and public safety phones. AT&T Business Voice provides a seamless transition from traditional copper line infrastructure to a robust digital network, allowing businesses to retain their existing phone numbers and equipment while adding new lines as needed. Designed specifically for small and midsize businesses, the solution includes key features such as 24/7 monitoring, built-in battery backup, optional wireless failover to maintain service during broadband interruptions, spam-call protection, and advanced telephony management capabilities.
Following the launch of the consumer-focused version of AT&T Turbo in May 2024, the company released AT&T Turbo for Business in June 2025. The offering ensures businesses maintain reliable and fast mobile connectivity, even during times of high network congestion. Turbo for Business prioritizes the treatment of data for business-critical applications, delivering the highest level of data priority currently available on AT&T’s wireless network. AT&T’s Business Unlimited Premium 2.0 with Turbo plan is available for $15 more per line per month compared to its standard Business Unlimited Premium 2.0 plan.
In June AT&T announced advanced upgrades to its AT&T ESInet emergency communications platform. The new capabilities include native picture and video messaging to Public Safety Answering Points (PSAPs) and automatic crash alerts from select 2026 Toyota vehicles equipped with AT&T’s Connected Car technology. These enhancements enable first responders to access critical data in real time, improving situational awareness and decision making. Although AT&T is currently the only nationwide provider offering these features, the standards-based design allows other wireless carriers to integrate them into their networks. The upgraded features will be available to new AT&T ESInet customers starting in October.
Segment performance excerpt
T-Mobile continued to outperform rivals in total enterprise revenue growth in 2Q25
AT&T and Verizon remain the largest incumbent operators in the U.S. B2B market by revenue due to the companies’ established client relationships and reputations. However, AT&T and Verizon reported total enterprise year-to-year revenue declines of 4.6% and 0.3%, respectively, in 2Q25 as the companies remain challenged by disconnects from customers on legacy wireline solutions.
T-Mobile outpaced benchmarked operators in total enterprise revenue growth in 2Q25. According to the company, T-Mobile for Business led in areas including U.S. business postpaid net additions, business postpaid phone net additions, business 5G FWA net additions and business postpaid churn performance. T-Mobile is attracting clients via the improved reputation of its wireless network as well as its expanded portfolio offerings in advanced services areas such as IoT, MEC and PCN. T-Mobile for Business projects it will generate a double-digit service revenue CAGR from 2023 to 2027.
Lumen’s total enterprise revenue declined 3.7% year-to-year to $2.6 billion as the company generated lower revenue for services including traditional VPN, Ethernet, legacy voice services, and other legacy products and services. Lumen does not compete in the wireless market, which is presenting a challenge as all other benchmarked operators sustained wireless revenue growth in 2Q25 and leverage wireless for bundling with wireline services.
U.S. Operator Total Enterprise Revenue and Year-to-year Revenue Growth (Source: TBR)
AT&T and Verizon continued to lead the U.S. in large enterprise revenue due to their deep footing among Fortune 500 companies, while Comcast and T-Mobile had the highest growth rates
AT&T and Verizon are significantly outpacing competitors in large enterprise revenue due to the operators’ deep entrenchment among Fortune 500 companies. However, smaller operators are positioning to gain market share among larger businesses. For instance, T-Mobile for Business is trailing other benchmarked operators in large enterprise revenue but is gradually gaining share in the segment as T-Mobile is attracting large enterprises via the competitive pricing of its unlimited data 5G plans; increased advertising; and time-to-market advantage in deploying 5G SA, which enables T-Mobile to offer B2B-specific offerings such as T-Priority.
Comcast’s acquisition of Nitel, which closed on April 1, bolstered the company’s large enterprise revenue in 2Q25. The purchase enables Comcast to expand its footprint in the midmarket and enterprise customer segments, and adds Nitel’s 6,600 clients across the U.S. in verticals including financial services, healthcare and education. Acquiring Nitel also enables Comcast Business to expand its channel distribution strategy to more effectively target new sales opportunities within the midmarket and enterprise segments. Comcast Business is gaining AI and software tools from the Nitel acquisition that will enable it to enhance its sales and customer service capabilities. These benefits include robust orchestration capabilities, an instant quoting tool that makes it easier to price and establish deals across multiple vendors and sites, and a digital dashboard that offers a single-pane-of-glass view of deployments.
U.S. Operator Large Enterprise Revenue and Year-to-year Revenue Growth (Source: TBR)
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To better enable AI, vendors reevaluate architecture and take big steps to bring operational data closer to the analytics workflow
Data Cloud Trends and Examples (Source: TBR)
New AI applications will drive near-term growth in the data cloud market, while SaaS vendors’ need to pivot as GenAI disrupts will be a defining trend in the coming years
Key takeaways
The data cloud market, which we expect will reach $124 billion in 2025, up 22% from 2024, remains driven by foundational workloads that support the storage and querying of data. While most of the data science and engineering efforts — and associated IT spend — are tied to moving data across systems and preparing it for transformation, the pressure to abstract insights and deliver business value from data is increasing. In the coming years, customers’ expectations around analytics will increase and drive a greater need for tools that can effectively bridge the gaps between technical and business personas within an organization.
Data Cloud Revenue and Market Share (Source: TBR)
AI demand remains strong, and extending AI to the workload (as opposed to extending the workload to the AI) underpinned by the database, is often a winning strategy. Vendors continue to closely integrate their services to promote data sharing and access — meeting customers where their data is — to support AI development.
Though responsible for vast amounts of critical business data, SaaS applications are not driving the storage of the data, which will be important as the rise of agentic AI causes disruption to the application layer. In the coming years, the data cloud market will be influenced by vendors trying to adapt to the disruption caused by generative AI (GenAI). For instance, SaaS vendors may increasingly buy their way into the data cloud space (i.e., Salesforce and Informatica), while existing data cloud players will explore new growth opportunities. Another big example is Databricks’ recent entry into the database market with Lakebase to bridge the gap between Online Transaction Processing (OLTP) and Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) systems.
Overall PaaS market growth will be fueled by AI offerings, such as Amazon Bedrock, Azure OpenAI and Google Vertex. Even so, the relationship between data and AI is symbiotic, and as customers build and deploy more AI apps using these services, adoption of database offerings will increase.
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Oracle’s ability to provide robust interconnectivity with other hyperscalers proves highly strategic, as legacy Oracle Database customers modernize on other clouds
Customer scenario: A distributed architecture leveraging Oracle and Microsoft Azure drives heavy cost savings
A company with a large legacy footprint, including both Microsoft and Oracle databases, leveraged a distributed architecture enabled by Oracle’s interconnectivity agreement with Microsoft Azure. Although this distributed architecture may not be as high-performing as hosting the associated applications in the cloud, its performance was still deemed better than that of the legacy data center.
To entice the customer to stay with their Oracle databases, significant savings were offered. The customer ultimately retained their Oracle databases, highlighting the value of Oracle’s partnership with Microsoft. Oracle is also expanding its interconnectivity with other cloud providers, including through its multicloud database strategy.
This particular customer decided to ultimately migrate applications to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), highlighting the role OCI plays in supporting the apps business.
“We ran a lot of performance tests to say, if we have this whole application in Azure, what does that performance look like? And what’s interesting is that Oracle actually has very strong interconnectivity that they’ve built with Azure. And, and when we ran the performance test, it turns out that, you know, the performance is actually better when you go to the cloud, for many use cases, but not all the use cases, right? The application issues are better, but sometimes the data may not be as optimized because now it’s inside Azure. And so we also knew Oracle came to us and said, ‘If you pay a certain amount of money for your on-premises databases, let’s say that money is $3 million, we’ll knock off your rates by 30%. So we’ll save you a million dollars. If, instead of moving all these to the Azure cloud, you move them to our cloud.’ And we thought they were crazy, but they showed us that is technically feasible, they have this high-speed interconnect. And we did that. And we realized that’s a lot of money to save, right? If you can save a couple million dollars, which otherwise I’m stuck in these legacy systems, you know, I’m there for the system for at least a couple of years. And so, it made sense for us to put our databases therefore, in Oracle, and we saw it was giving us better performance than we were in the data center. But slightly, not as great a performance as the whole application was in Azure itself. So we took a little bit of performance hit with this distributed architecture, but it was still better than a data center. And the cost savings were very significant. Were in millions of dollars. And so after we ran all the performance tests, security tests, and all of these pieces, we’ve sort of decided that one of the applications, we’re going to migrate completely, to OCI itself.” — CTO, Manufacturing
Ecosystem developments excerpt
Maturing data cloud companies invest in programmatic partner initiatives, which is critical to improving engagement, accountability and alignment within the ecosystem
Sales & marketing staffing
Collective sales and marketing headcount across the seven data cloud pure plays in this report reached roughly 16,600 in CY2Q25, up 24% year-to-year. Snowflake has been particularly focused on hiring more technical sales roles, including sales consultants who can identify new use cases and migration opportunities.
Confluent’s transition to a consumption-led GTM model has been supporting productivity, with revenue per S&M employee continuing to grow in the low double digits on a year-to-year basis.
Partner developments
On the heels of launching new partner programs including the Accelerate with Confluent program for SI partners, Confluent plans to invest $200 million in its global partner ecosystem. This investment will support new engineering efforts and partner enablement resources on the GTM side.
MongoDB continues to invest in the MongoDB AI Applications Program (MAAP), aligning engineering, professional services and partner resources to help digital natives get started with AI. That said, there is an enterprise component to the program, and GSIs like Accenture and Capgemini are participating members.
Sales motions
Self-service channel: Currently, 7,300 MongoDB customers are supported through direct sales, which represents just 12% of MongoDB’s nearly 60,000 customers. Naturally, many of MongoDB’s customers are SMBs and midmarket businesses supported through the self-service channel via cloud marketplaces, which act as a great sales productivity lever for MongoDB. As MongoDB continues to look upmarket and focus on capturing wallet share from its largest, most strategic accounts, the number of self-serve customers passed on to direct sales teams will likely continue to decline.
Consumption-based selling: Confluent has a consumption-based revenue model and has been taking steps to align its go-to-market model accordingly. For instance, the company is now compensating salespeople on incremental consumption and new logo acquisition.
Geo and industry segmentation
Databricks is rapidly expanding in Latin America and opened a new office in São Paulo, Brazil, in early July. Total headcount in the region is expected to reach over 200 employees by the end of this year. Databricks also recently made its platform available in Google Cloud’s São Paulo region, officially making Databricks available on all major public clouds in Brazil.
As highlighted in TBR’s 1H25 U.S. Federal Cloud Ecosystem Report, federal cloud spending is expected to surpass $31 billion by FFY28. Data cloud vendors continue to certify their offerings to address this opportunity. For instance, Cloudera has reached some major milestones, including achieving Moderate Provisional Authority to Operate (P-ATO) status for its platform, and recently secured a blanket purchase agreement with the DOD as part of the Enterprise Software Initiative (ESI).
Vendor profiles excerpt
Though still staying true to its iPaaS heritage, Boomi actively repositions as an orchestrator of AI agents to reduce the complexity and sprawl that development platforms are creating
TBR Assessment: Integration Platform as a Service (iPaaS) continues to play a critical role in helping IT departments meet the needs of their business users and, by extension, the end customers. As a key market player, Boomi upholds its long-established position as readily scalable and able to support a low TCO (total cost of ownership). In many ways, Boomi achieved this position by being a cloud-native application — an advantage that not all iPaaS players have. Building on its integration heritage, Boomi is expanding the reach of its platform to support the needs of AI agents, an emerging opportunity as PaaS vendors make it incredibly seamless to spin up an AI agent, indirectly creating more sprawl and complexity. With new tools like Boomi Agentstudio (formerly Boomi AI Studio), which is now generally available, Boomi is giving customers a way to manage, govern and orchestrate agents on a single platform, reinforcing the shift the vendor is making to become more of an agent orchestrator. Though Boomi stays true to its core iPaaS roots, which is a core component of the Boomi Enterprise Platform and Agentstudio, the company clearly recognizes the need to pivot like the rest of the market as a result of GenAI’s emergence.
Customer Insight
“So when we need to integrate through APIs, there are multiple interfaces we need, and we create where we end up transferring the data capture. But at the same time, there are non-APIs where we have connectors and workflows and we’ll be able to transfer the data into multiple applications. Now, when we talk about entire API management, we use Boomi for the entire API management, support and configuration of APIs to ensure that we can centrally test and deploy APIs, and we can enforce contracts and policies with an API gateway.” — VP Technology, Financial Services
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/TBR-Spotlight-Report.png10801080TBRhttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngTBR2025-11-15 13:34:202025-11-15 13:34:20Cloud Data & Analytics Market Landscape
Lenovo reaffirmed its commitment to Hybrid AI for All during the company’s annual Global Industry Analyst Conference, held Oct. 20 to 23 at the company’s U.S. headquarters in Morrisville, N.C. The conference featured a series of closed-door sessions during which Lenovo executives briefed roughly 70 industry analysts on all things Lenovo, from liquid cooling to agentic AI solutions. Throughout the conference, Lenovo executives provided updates on the company’s overall strategy and ambitions to shift its perception from PC vendor to full-stack, end-to-end solution provider.
From PC vendor to full-stack solution provider
At its core, Lenovo is an engineering company with a particular strength in computing, having acquired IBM’s PC business and later its x86 server business. However, Lenovo’s investments in scope expansion underpin its transformation into a solutions- and services-led technology provider.
Since the formation of its Solutions and Services Group in 2020, Lenovo has not looked back. In 2024 the company announced its Hybrid AI Advantage framework, which serves as a powerful example of how the company’s portfolio is widening and how the company’s culture and go-to-market approach are evolving to emphasize its increasingly solutions- and services-led model and its growing focus on full-stack AI.
However, despite the company’s investments in transformation, Lenovo has retained its core competencies in engineering and manufacturing, leveraging its expertise and global footprint to drive innovation, cost efficiencies and scale. For example, in Lenovo Infrastructure Solutions Group, the company has leaned into its unique engineering and manufacturing capabilities to establish its rapidly growing ODM+ business, which targets cloud services providers.
Additionally, within the Lenovo Intelligent Device Group, the company has leveraged these capabilities to mitigate the impacts of tariffs and drive design innovation in an otherwise increasingly commoditized PC market. The company’s Solutions and Services business acts like a margin-enriching interconnective tissue over the company’s robust client and data center hardware portfolios and a catalyst to move the company further up the value chain.
As a dual-headquartered company (North Carolina and Beijing), Lenovo’s global footprint is unmatched by its hardware OEM peers, and the company’s business in China largely operates in its own silo. China is one of several regional launch markets for early pilots. However, Lenovo follows a local-first, global-by-design approach: Solutions are incubated to meet local data, content and regulatory requirements, and when there’s Rest of World (ROW) demand, Lenovo reimplements features for global compliance rather than porting code or models 1:1. No China-based user data, models or services are reused in ROW products.
Building on this global theme, during the conference Lenovo noted that it is hiring Lenovo AI Technology Center (LATC) engineers across the world, in places like Silicon Valley; Chicago; Raleigh, N.C.; Europe; Tel Aviv, Israel; and China. Additionally, the company highlighted its investment in establishing new AI centers of excellence to centralize and expand regional AI talent and support independent software vendors in their development of industry- and use-case-specific solutions. Rather than making a net-new investment, Lenovo has leveraged this strategy successfully to expand its AI library, a catalog of preconfigured AI solutions ready to be customized and deployed by Lenovo. In addition to industry- and use-case-specific AI solutions, the company also works with regional independent software vendors to develop solutions tailored to the preferences of customers in specific geographies, such as China.
While Lenovo’s portfolio and go-to-market strategy may differ slightly by geography, the company’s pocket-to-cloud and One Lenovo initiatives remain the same around the world and are the basis for the company’s differentiation in the market — a theme during every session of the conference. From smartphones to servers, Lenovo is vying for share in every segment, and by investing in the unification and openness of its portfolio, whether it be through the development of homegrown software or new ecosystem partnerships, the company is positioning to grow in the AI era. Changing its perception from a PC powerhouse to a solution provider remains one of Lenovo’s largest challenges, but the company’s work in sponsoring and supporting FIFA and F1 with its full-stack technology capabilities demonstrates its willingness to invest in overcoming this hurdle.
Lenovo is investing to win in enterprise AI and bring smarter AI to all
Lenovo’s AI strategy spans all three of the company’s business units and echoes the Smarter AI for All mantra and pocket-to-cloud value proposition.
During the conference Lenovo reemphasized its belief that the meaningful ramp-up of enterprise AI is on the horizon as AI inferencing workloads continue to proliferate. Lenovo has high-performance computing roots and its Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) derives a significant portion of its revenue from cloud service provider (CSP) customers, in contrast to some of its closest infrastructure OEM competitors, but Lenovo’s investments and the composition of the company’s portfolio emphasize the company’s intent on driving growth through its Enterprise and Small/Medium Business (ESMB) segment, supporting all levels of on-premises AI computing, from the core data center to the far edge.
Additionally, Lenovo continues to go against the grain on the notion that AI workloads belong exclusively on the GPU and makes a case for lighter workloads being deployed more efficiently on the CPU and in smaller edge server form factors. Lenovo’s view is heterogeneous AI: Training and high-throughput inference lean on GPUs; latency-sensitive and personal workloads increasingly run on NPUs and optimized CPUs, and the company’s portfolio spans all three — multi-GPU-ready workstations, edge servers with GPU/CPU mixes, and Copilot+ PCs with NPUs for local inference — so customers can place the right workload on the right engine.
However, perhaps what differentiates Lenovo’s infrastructure portfolio most is the company’s Neptune liquid cooling technology, which comes in three flavors: Neptune, Neptune Core and Neptune Air. Intensive AI and machine-learnings workloads require dense compute infrastructure that, in some cases, generates so much heat it requires liquid cooling as opposed to traditional air cooling. In addition, even less-intensive workloads often benefit from liquid cooling, which generally operates at lower costs once implemented. This is where Neptune liquid cooling comes in.
The company’s flagship Neptune solution offers full system liquid cooling, making it ideal for the most demanding AI and high-performance computing workloads. The company’s other two offerings — Neptune Core and Neptune Air — deliver lower levels of heat removal but are more easily implemented. For instance, while Neptune Air offers the lowest levels of heat removal, the simplicity of the solution makes it easier to implement, especially in existing data center environments, supporting lower cost transitions to liquid cooling.
TBR sees Lenovo’s family of Neptune solutions as a major advantage, as the variety of offerings targets customers and environments in different stages of liquid cooling adoption. Lenovo’s experience in retrofitting data centers with liquid cooling also presents a strong services opportunity for the company and supports enterprise adoption of higher-power AI servers in their on-premises environments. Further, because liquid cooling is more efficient than air cooling, Neptune supports Lenovo’s sustainability initiatives and delivers strong total cost of ownership savings in many scenarios, which is something IT decision makers tend to scrutinize heavily when making investments.
Unlike its close competitors that have invested heavily in data management and orchestration layers leveraging their networking and storage solutions, Lenovo does not play in the data center networking space, instead choosing to be networking-agnostic and partner-first in this area, which the company sees as an advantage due to geographical differences in customer preference. However, the company’s results have yet to prove that this networking strategy is materially advantageous. Additionally, while complex, networking is typically more margin rich than compute and storage while also presenting myriad attach and services opportunities for OEMs with first-party full-stack infrastructure portfolios.
Adjacent to the company infrastructure offerings, during the conference Lenovo executives stated that there should more adoption of workstations as part of enterprises’ on-premises AI adoption and solution development. Compared to sandboxing AI solutions in the cloud, Lenovo sees its workstations, which can support up to four NVIDIA RTX discrete GPUs, as a more practical and economical solution compared to cloud resources. However, in addition to the company’s Windows-based workstations, Lenovo also showed off its NVIDIA DGX Spark inspired desktop geared more heavily toward use in conjunction with NVIDIA DGX cloud.
Rather than running Windows OS, Lenovo’s DGX Spark inspired desktop runs DGX OS, a Linux-based operating system and is ideal for buyers that already have DGX cloud resources. With desktop offerings for AI spanning multiple operating systems, Lenovo’s Intelligent Device Group showcases the company’s ambition to create AI systems for all types of users. Looking ahead, both TBR and Lenovo expect the adoption of GPU-enabled workstations to grow as an increasing number of enterprises experiment with the development and/or customization of preconfigured AI solutions.
Through a services lens, Lenovo’s enterprise AI strategy centers on the company’s Hybrid AI Advantage framework. Similar to frameworks used by competitors such as Dell Technologies and HPE, Hybrid AI Advantage includes NVIDIA AI Enterprise software components intended to allow for the development of industry- and use-case-specific AI solutions. However, while NVIDIA AI Enterprise can be thought of as a collection of foundational tools to build AI agents, Lenovo’s AI library goes a set up further, offering more out-of-the-box types of industry- and use-case-specific AI solutions.
The composition of Lenovo AI library is largely predicated on solutions developed in conjunction with ISVs through Lenovo’s AI Innovators program. As Lenovo expands its footprint of AI centers of excellence, TBR expects the number of customizable, near-plug-and-play AI solutions to grow, further cementing the company’s differentiation in the marketplace. Additionally, Lenovo argues that its Agentic AI Platform further differentiates Hybrid AI Advantage from what is offered by competitors.
Lenovo’s Solutions and Services Group is equipped with strengthening auxiliary services to support customers wherever they are on their AI journey. This is where the company’s Hybrid AI framework comes into play. The framework has five components: AI discover, AI advisory, AI fast start, AI deploy and scale, and AI managed. The first two components underscore Lenovo’s growing emphasis on delivering professional services, while the third component — where many customers enter the framework — is where Lenovo aligns customers with a solution from the company’s AI library. The last two components highlight Lenovo’s ongoing interest in delivering deployment and ultimately managed services through the company’s maturing TruScale “as a Service” business that caters to both infrastructure solutions and devices deployments.
At the end of the day, Lenovo understands that hardware — specifically compute hardware like PCs and servers — is its strength, but by developing prebuilt solutions and overlaying its expanding services capabilities, the company is investing in moving up the value chain to drive margin expansion and deepen customer engagement.
Intelligent Device Group is doubling down on its unified ecosystem play
At 67.3% of total reported segment revenue in 2Q25, Lenovo’s Intelligent Device Group accounts for the lion’s share of the company’s top line, and TBR estimates 88.5% of the segment’s revenue is derived from the sale of PCs. Over the trailing 12-month (TTM) period ending in 2Q25, TBR estimates the company’s PC business generated nearly $40 billion, growing 14.6% year-to-year and resulting in an approximate 130-basis-point expansion in PC market share, according to TBR’s 2Q25 Devices Benchmark.
In line with the company’s ambitions to change its perception from a PC vendor to a solutions provider, and due to the company’s already established footprint in the PC market, much of the general sessions during the conference focused on the company’s AI position, with specific emphasis on Solutions and Services Group and Infrastructure Solutions Group. However, during the Intelligent Device Group briefings, Lenovo executives confirmed the company has no intention of giving up share in devices — the business on which the company’s success has been predicated. Lenovo touted its leadership position in several segments of the PC market, with the largest being the commercial space. Business leaders acknowledged that it is a good time to take share in the commercial Windows PC market, and by investing in the development of proprietary components and feature sets, the company is actively dispelling the notion that the PC market is fully commoditized. Lenovo has continued its engineering collaboration with Microsoft on CoPilot+ PCs.
Beyond the PC, Lenovo’s investments in growing the share of its Motorola smartphone business have been paying off, and the company is not taking its foot off the gas. To drive cross-selling opportunities, the company is deploying a marketing strategy targeting a younger customer base and is leaning into creating a unified device ecosystem integrated with AI features and capabilities, something the company refers to as its One AI, Multiple Devices strategy. However, unlike other unified device ecosystem plays, such as that of Apple, Lenovo’s play is more open, with the company supporting cross-device features between its PCs and smartphones running both Android OS and iOS. Thus far, Lenovo has seen limited traction in cross-selling smartphones and PCs in the commercial space; however, TBR believes the company’s One AI, Multiple Devices strategy could help shift the tide.
2Q25 TTM Windows PC Market Share and Estimated 2025 Lenovo PC Revenue Mix (Source: TBR)
During its Global Industry Analyst Conference, Lenovo’s focus on maintaining and even expanding its leadership position in the commercial PC segment was obvious, but what was perhaps more interesting was how the company is marketing several of its PCs that are in direct competition with Apple in an effort to appeal to a younger segment of the PC market. Lenovo is promoting its device brand as premium, trusted and innovative — aspects supported by the company’s leadership in PC design and engineering as well as its ongoing investments in device security through proprietary software developments. Lenovo also showcased innovative designs, such as motorized expanding screens, and developments down to the motherboard level, which harkened back to the company’s core legacy competencies in engineering and manufacturing.
Through partnerships and portfolio innovation, Lenovo is gradually changing its perception in the industry
Lenovo’s FIFA and F1 partnerships underscore the company’s investments in growing its brand recognition globally and changing its perception from PC vendor to solutions provider. For example, Lenovo infrastructure will power semi-automated offsides calls during the World Cup via computer vision technology. Additionally, Lenovo continues to leverage its Neptune liquid cooling technology as a key differentiator. During the conference Kate Swanborg, SVP, Technology Communications and Strategic Alliances, DreamWorks Animation, discussed how Neptune has allowed DreamWorks to consolidate its data center footprint from 210 air-cooled servers down to 72 liquid-cooled servers.
By leveraging its global engineering and manufacturing footprint in combination with its expanding ecosystem of ISV partners, Lenovo’s emphasis on hardware innovation and supply chain agility aligns with the company’s ever-growing AI library and its establishment of AI centers of excellence, to support Lenovo’s ambitions of driving enterprise AI adoption across all kinds of on-premises environments. Constant investments in IT operations management platforms and unified device ecosystem software demonstrate Lenovo’s focus on driving cross-selling within and across its hardware portfolios while increasing the value proposition behind the company’s TruScale managed service offerings.
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/global-computer-network_maxim-basinski_vasabii_canvapro.png10801080Ben Carbonneau, Senior Data Analysthttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngBen Carbonneau, Senior Data Analyst2025-11-14 09:58:002025-11-14 11:11:47Lenovo Aims to Become a Global Solutions Provider through Strategic Partnerships and AI-driven Innovation
As part of Climate Week in New York City, Fujitsu hosted eight analysts on Sept. 25 for a roundtable discussion about sustainability, supply chains and Fujitsu’s emerging Uvance consulting service. Among the Fujitsu leaders in attendance were EVP Chief Sustainability and Supply Chain Officer Takashi Yamanishi and EVP Global Solutions Sinead Kaiya. The following reflects that roundtable discussion and TBR’s extensive and ongoing analysis of Fujitsu’s IT services and consulting efforts, particularly in North America.
Fujitsu’s Uvance gains traction in AI-enabled sustainability
As Fujitsu’s Uvance offering evolves and gains market share and presence, the company’s ability to deliver on AI-enabled sustainability solutions could accelerate overall growth, especially in North America. Use cases highlighting both measurable return on investment in AI and significant cost savings demonstrate that Fujitsu’s relatively smaller scale in North America, as compared to peers such as Accenture or Deloitte, has not prevented the company from delivering value to clients.
TBR believes the critical next steps to growth, perhaps at a faster pace over the next five years, are developing repeatable, IP-driven solutions, learning to compete with fewer employees and more AI agents, and leveraging a scrappy mentality. Finding the right messaging around Uvance, embedding sustainability across all engagements, and increasingly leveraging internal supply chain and cybersecurity expertise to support client-facing opportunities will round out Fujitsu’s strategy. It is no small task, but the company has positioned itself well, as TBR has noted repeatedly over the last few years.
‘From philosophy and targets to execution,’ according to Yamanishi
Folding supply chain and sustainability leadership into one C-Suite role is a slight differentiator for Fujitsu. According to Fujitsu’s EVP Chief Sustainability and Supply Chain Officer, Takashi Yamanishi, the company is combining its focus on suppliers and third-party management with its sustainability offerings and capabilities to expand Fujitsu’s business opportunities. By merging supply chain experience with sustainability imperatives, Fujitsu is creating a compelling business case while simultaneously moving toward its own environmental targets, including in Scope 3 emissions.
Notably, Yamanishi described the close cooperation between Fujitsu’s supply chain and sustainability professionals and the company’s cybersecurity practice, including collaboration around supplier assessments. In addition to greenhouse gas emissions and other Scope 3 metrics, Fujitsu utilizes its own cybersecurity assessment and criteria to strengthen its suppliers’ cybersecurity, enhancing the overall resilience of the supply chain. In TBR’s view, using sustainability and cybersecurity metrics to assess supply chain risks is likely driving more responsiveness and transparency from suppliers around risk mitigation.
Kaiya calls for mindset to ‘Be scrappy’
Fujitsu’s Uvance story continues to evolve, and the roundtable discussion on sustainability reinforced the company’s overall approach of leading with technology-infused business solutions and business value, with a foundation in sustainability. Fujitsu’s EVP Global Solutions Sinead Kaiya highlighted a few aspects of Uvance’s evolution and approach around sustainability.
Fujitsu intends for Uvance to account for upward of 30% of the company’s services revenues by 2030, while traditional IT services will account for 60% and modernization the remaining 10%. Uvance’s growth in recent years makes that target likely achievable.
Fujitsu’s own intellectual property should be built into all of the company’s engagements. Both Kaiya and Yamanishi distinguished between solutions that exist within Fujitsu’s capabilities and can be deployed as part of an engagement and repeatable solutions (or products) that sit within Uvance and can scale across multiple clients.
In North America, as previously discussed with TBR, Fujitsu will focus on a few core industries, notably framed less as traditionally understood verticals and more as shared business challenges, which Fujitsu has positioned itself to help clients tackle. In TBR’s view, this approach reflects the reality that nearly every enterprise operates under business models dominant in multiple industries.
During the slow rollout of Uvance TBR has noted increasingly well-refined explanations of what Uvance does, which kinds of clients Fujitsu is pursuing, and how Uvance can separate itself in a crowded consulting and technology field. Kaiya made two standout points that further cemented TBR’s understanding. First, Uvance will not “just solve the [client’s] problem,” but Fujitsu will be “exceptionally careful in what we can be and what we should be, for profit reasons, repeatable.” Second, in North America Uvance will “be scrappy” and pursue opportunities overlooked or underserved by larger consultancies and IT services companies. In TBR’s view, this strategy of being deliberate with repeatable solutions and taking a self-aware, aggressive approach to the market aligns with Fujitsu’s strengths, current place in the market and opportunities for growth.
Successful deployments depend on reliable technologies and measurable outcomes
Roundtable participants were also provided Uvance and sustainability use cases and demonstrations, notably:
In a supply chain optimization use case in which the client realized a 50% savings in operational costs, Fujitsu leaders said they had not used an outcomes-based pricing model but would consider such an approach if and when they are able to repeat that approach and solution at a similar client. Time and materials, Kaiya noted, would not be an optimal long-term pricing model.
In a Canadian client’s use case, Fujitsu leaders noted a three-month return on investment from a generative AI (GenAI)-enabled solution, making this one of the more successful, understandable and relatable GenAI deployments in recent TBR memory. Based on the client’s use of Fujitsu’s GenAI solution to reduce time spent responding to compliance and regulatory requests, TBR believes Fujitsu will continue investing in industry-specific large language models (echoing previous industry clouds trend).
Multiple use cases highlighted included a blockchain component, leading TBR to question whether Fujitsu had a dedicated blockchain practice similar to what existed at consultancies and IT services companies in the 2010s and early 2020s. Kaiya and Yamanishi noted that blockchain serves as an enabling technology and is part of the overall solution Fujitsu brings to clients (when needed), but it is not a stand-alone offering. Fujitsu professionals also noted that clients specifically ask for greater transparency and quality control, characteristics inherent in blockchain.
Overall, Fujitsu’s use cases and demo made for a compelling case for both Uvance and the company’s underlying sustainability approach. TBR will be watching through 2026 to see whether Fujitsu’s use cases increasingly include outcomes-based pricing, how frequently Fujitsu discusses repeatable solutions, and which other technologies shift from emerging and noteworthy to enabled. TBR will also monitor how Fujitsu adapts its alliance strategy to align more effectively with the needs and strengths of its technology partners. In particular, TBR will seek examples of Fujitsu coordinating multiparty alliances to support the operations of Japanese enterprises based in the Americas.
Sustainability now and forever
The New York City roundtable reinforced for TBR a few truths about Fujitsu now and going forward. First, the company is scrappy, having developed go-to-market and North America strategies that play to its strengths. Second, rapid changes across IT services and consulting are unlikely to catch Fujitsu off guard and unprepared. Fujitsu leaders understand the shifting talent landscape, where IT services and consulting buyers in 2026 and beyond will expect AI in everything and AI-induced savings as part of their engagements. And lastly, circling back to the core reason for the event, Fujitsu knows sustainability may be a lower priority in the U.S. at present, but it will become a top priority again, and Fujitsu has been preparing its offerings, capabilities and clients for that pendulum swing.
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/new-york-skyscrapers_elnur_canva-pro.png10801080Patrick Heffernan, Practice Manager and Principal Analysthttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngPatrick Heffernan, Practice Manager and Principal Analyst2025-11-07 13:19:572025-11-07 13:19:57Fujitsu Showcases Smart GTM Plays, AI-ready Talent and Long-term Sustainability Efforts
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