What Spectrum Will 6G Use?
The wireless technology ecosystem is rallying around FR3 bands for 6G
The wireless technology ecosystem has settled on the upper midbands, specifically the 7GHz-24GHz range (aka Frequency Range 3 [FR3]). Within FR3, 7GHz-15GHz is considered the golden range for 6G, as it has the best balance between coverage and capacity and 1600MHz of total bandwidth could be made available in the U.S.
However, one of the biggest issues with these “golden bands” is the need for communication service providers (CSPs) to coexist with incumbent users, such as government entities and satellite operators, which utilize some of these channels for various purposes and would need to either clear, refarm or share those channels with CSPs for use in cellular communications. The telecom industry already has some experience with shared spectrum through CBRS, which operates in the 3.5GHz band, so there is a pre-existing framework and mechanism in place (i.e., Spectrum Access System) from which to begin establishing a spectrum sharing system for these new bands.
Ultimately, TBR believes that 6G will end up leveraging a mix of spectrum tranches, with midband, upper midband and mmWave frequencies all in play. Carrier aggregation and other frequency-combining technologies, as well as advancements in beamforming and endpoint devices, make these spectrum bands perform better when working together. Additionally, FR3 spectrum is not good at penetrating walls. Given that around 80% of wireless traffic is generated indoors — a statistic that is unlikely to change materially in the 6G era — FR3 bands would need to be complemented with lower bands to penetrate walls and provide optimal coverage and capacity.
Limited CSP investment and increased government role expected to shape the next cellular era
The telecom industry continues to struggle with realizing new revenue and deriving ROI from 5G, even after five years of market development. TBR continues to see no solution to this persistent challenge, and with no catalyst on the horizon to change the situation, CSPs’ appetite for and scope of investment in 6G will likely be limited.
TBR expects CSP capex investment for 6G will be subdued compared with previous cellular network generations, and deployment of the technology will be more tactical in nature, which is a marked deviation from the multihundred-billion-dollar investments in spectrum and infrastructure associated with the nationwide deployments during each of the prior cellular eras.
In a longer-term effort to address this situation, TBR expects the level of government involvement in the cellular networks domain (via stimulus, R&D support, purchases of 6G solutions and other market-influencing mechanisms) to significantly increase and broaden, as 6G has been short-listed as a technology of national strategic importance.
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With that said, 6G will ultimately happen, and commercial deployment of 6G-branded networks will likely begin in the late 2020s (following the ratification of 3rd Generation Partnership Project [3GPP] Release 21 standards, which is tentatively slated to be complete in 2028). However, it remains to be seen whether 6G will be a brand only or a legitimate set of truly differentiated features and capabilities that bring broad and significant value to CSPs and the global economy.
Regardless, the scope of CSPs’ challenges is growing, and governments will need to get involved in a much bigger way to ensure their countries continue to innovate and adopt technologies that are deemed strategically important.
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