Mixed results expected in the U.S. federal sector for IT services vendors

Earnings season for federally focused IT vendors begins the week of Oct. 21. Senior Analyst John Caucis has been tracking Northrop Grumman Technology Services (TS), General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT) and Raytheon Intelligence, Information and Services (IIS) ahead of their 3Q19 fiscal earnings release. 

Raytheon IIS is expected to be the top performer among the first group of companies to tender their financial performance, owing to new contract signings in the lucrative cyber and space sectors and expanding project volumes on existing programs in these segments. Growth is likely to moderate in 3Q19, though this is expected with the ramp down of the Warfighter Field Operations Customer Support (FOCUS) program. Some of the lost Warfighter FOCUS revenue will be offset by a recent rise in domestic bookings that is converting to revenue on IIS’ top line while IIS continues expanding its overseas footprint.

Northrop Grumman TS’ recent sales slide is expected to continue in 3Q19, though we also expect the pace of TS’ contraction to continue moderating as the impact of large engagement losses wanes and bookings with sustainment, logistics and modernization programs strengthen.

The CSRA acquisition is no longer inorganically lifting GDIT’s revenue, and recent business divestitures (GDIT’s call center and 911 businesses) are expected to further erode GDIT’s revenue base. The expiration of a handful of large engagements in 3Q19, combined with the expiration of those in early 2019, will exacerbate the impact of the aforementioned issues on GDIT’s performance. Cross-sales with the Aerospace and Mission Systems segments of General Dynamics are helping offset these headwinds, as are the large-scale awards GDIT is increasingly booking, but a complete return to top-line growth is not expected until 2020.

Additional assessments publishing this week from our analyst teams

Driving innovation across its North America client base via a senior leadership team strengthened by its new Digital Transformation Office and establishing an Application and Technology Services practice will enable Atos to ramp up activities with clients around improving business operations and results through next-generation solutions. The next step for Atos is to successfully cross-sell its solutions by explaining the company’s capabilities to internal sales and delivery teams and to existing clients, as well as to effectively deliver services to grow revenues and improve profitability in North America. — Elitsa Bakalova, Senior Analyst

With Atos’ 3Q19 earnings release TBR expects cloud will remain a vibrant segment for Atos, and revenue growth in the segment will continue to outpace the company’s total revenue growth. Atos’ cloud business will be positively affected by increased activities with clients, such as around transforming legacy applications and infrastructures to cloud, orchestrating hybrid cloud, ensuring cloud security through services and IP-based solutions, and providing cloud-enabled IoT solutions. Collaborating with clients’ IT and business stakeholders during cloud transformations and adding industry expertise will improve Atos’ ability to drive business outcomes for clients through cloud. — Bakalova

TBR expects six consecutive quarters of bookings growth and cross-selling opportunities to clients that came from recent acquisitions such as Leidos Cyber will sustain Capgemini’s growth momentum in 3Q19. Enhancing client relationships and industry expertise, such as through the acquisition of KONEXUS Consulting and the proposed acquisition of Altran, and approaching clients’ CxOs will improve Capgemini’s ability to access budget stakeholders and sustain revenue growth. — Bakalova

With a robust legacy client base and deep relationships with key technology partners, Accenture’s cloud business will continue to flourish. Accenture is doubling down on Google Cloud, adding another node to its multicloud management strategy. Additionally, Accenture Security continues to provide the trust needed to win new buyers and fuel cloud opportunities. — Boz Hristov, Senior Analyst

Though Verizon will continue to trail T-Mobile in postpaid phone net additions for the foreseeable future, Verizon remains able to capitalize on its reputation as a premium wireless service provider to attract customers willing to pay a higher price point for the operator’s network coverage and premium unlimited data plans. Additionally, aggressive cost-cutting and digital transformation initiatives are helping improve profitability. — Steve Vachon, Analyst

HCL Technologies’ (HCLT) acquisition activity and efforts to strengthen in-demand portfolio offerings generated double-digit growth in 2Q19. We expect HCLT will leverage its partner network to gain access to an expanded client base and lead with its expertise in Engineering and R&D Services to support its ability to differentiate and compete against peers as well as maintain growth momentum in 3Q19. — Kelly Lesiczka, Analyst