6G’s Fate Depends on the Level of Government Intervention

2025 Predictions is a series of special reports examining market trends and business changes TBR expects in the coming year for AI PCs, cloud market share, digital transformation, GenAI, ecosystems and alliances, and 6G

Top Predictions for 6G in 2025

1. 6G will leverage FR3 spectrum
2. Capex spend on 6G is likely to be subdued
3. Scope of government support for the telecom industry will increase and persist to facilitate 6G market development

 

 

Lack of a clear ROI for the private sector to justify investing sufficiently in 6G puts the fate of the technology into the hands of the government

The telecom industry continues to struggle with realizing new revenue and deriving ROI from 5G, even after five years of market development. TBR continues to see no solution to this persistent challenge and with no catalyst on the horizon to change the situation, communication service providers’ (CSPs) appetite for and scope of investment in 6G will likely be limited.
 
TBR expects CSP capex investment for 6G will be subdued compared with previous cellular network generations, and deployment of the technology will be more tactical in nature, which is a marked deviation from the multihundred-billion-dollar investments in spectrum and infrastructure associated with the nationwide deployments during each of the prior cellular eras.

In a longer-term effort to address this situation, TBR expects the level of government involvement in the cellular networks domain (via stimulus, R&D support, purchases of 6G solutions and other market-influencing mechanisms) to significantly increase and broaden, as 6G has been shortlisted as a technology of national strategic importance.
 
With that said, 6G will ultimately happen, and commercial deployment of 6G-branded networks will likely begin in the late 2020s (following the ratification of 3rd Generation Partnership Project [3GPP] Release 21 standards, which is tentatively slated to be complete in 2028). However, it remains to be seen whether 6G will be a brand only or a legitimate set of truly differentiated features and capabilities that bring broad and significant value to CSPs and the global economy.
 
Either way, the scope of CSPs’ challenges is growing, and governments will need to get involved in a much bigger way to ensure their countries continue to innovate and adopt technologies that are deemed strategically important.
 
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