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Post Updated: July 16, 2026

TBR expects Dell and Lenovo will continue to lead Windows PC OEMs through 2030 while Apple will remain the No. 1 vendor in overall devices revenue

Overall Forecast: Because of the relative stability of the smartphone market and the size of PC revenue in relation to the remaining devices segments, PC market dynamics largely dictate the direction of revenue growth in TBR’s Devices Market Forecast. Currently, PC vendors are contending with a constrained memory market caused by the prioritization of AI infrastructure build-outs. Constrained supply is driving up costs for DRAM and NAND memory, inflating PC bill of materials (BOM), which OEMs are then passing on to customers in the form of higher prices. As prices rise, refresh cycles will continue to lengthen, hindering revenue growth potential. TBR expects the devices market to grow at roughly a 2.6% CAGR from 2025 to 2030 as organizations continue to replace aging PCs, particularly as memory prices eventually stabilize and begin to fall, supplemented by growth in the smartphone and tablet markets.

Trends and Opportunities: AI proliferation remains a significant driver of revenue growth and premiumization opportunities across the devices space. PC OEMs will remain focused on driving AI PC adoption and gradually increasing these devices as a mix of total PC shipments to drive long-term revenue growth and average revenue per unit (ARPU) expansion. However, this is at odds with inflationary memory prices, which are driving vendors to develop strategies around shipping higher volumes of less-richly configured PCs to boost segment revenue as part of a process called decontenting. To support AI PC adoption and increase services revenue, vendors will also continue to build out suites of services designed to help organizations leverage productivity gains offered by AI PCs.

Leaders: Apple continues to lead the devices market in revenue share by a significant margin due to its large, loyal and constantly expanding customer base, and TBR expects this position to remain unchanged through 2030. Among the major Windows PC OEMs, Lenovo held the largest market share during 2025, followed by Dell Technologies (Dell) and HP Inc. TBR expects this positioning to remain consistent through 2030, with Dell outpacing Lenovo in the PC space in year-to-year growth as it refocuses its portfolio and pricing strategy, balanced out by Lenovo supplementing PC growth with its smartphone and tablet businesses.

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Devices vendors continue to construct their corporate strategies around prevailing technology trends, such as AI, and increased concerns regarding data privacy

Market drivers and changes

PC

  • Premiumization in conflict with decontenting amid rising memory costs
  • Windows 11 refresh
  • Proprietary AI agents
  • OEM and ISV partnerships

PC Services

  • Lengthening device life cycles
  • Better PC predictive maintenance may boost margins on warranty contracts and fewer claims
  • Asset management services
  • Cybersecurity
  • Device as a Service
  • Sustainability

Mobile Device

  • AI platforms and assistants
  • Ecosystem integration
  • Expanding 5G coverage
  • New form factors
  • Data privacy

Tablet

  • AI platforms and assistants
  • Ecosystem integration
  • Commercial deployments
  • Features for creative professionals

TBR expects Lenovo and Dell will claim the top spots in the AI PC market by 2030, overtaking early leader Apple, which claimed the top spot with its Mac lineup

Since the release of Intel’s Meteor Lake processors in December 2023, PC vendors have been rolling out progressively more powerful AI PCs, incorporating chips with built-in NPUs from Intel, AMD and Qualcomm. The share of these PCs as a proportion of total PC shipments has gradually increased since then, with Dell, HP Inc. and Lenovo having AI PC mixes of approximately 25%, 27.5% and 30%, respectively, for 2025. TBR expects the mix of AI PCs to continue rising slowly over the next few years as these devices become more mainstream, with the AI PC mixes of the major Windows OEMs approaching 90% by 2030.
 
Following the discontinuation of the final Intel-powered Mac model in June 2023, all Apple computers sold have been classified as AI PCs due to the Neural Engine built into the company’s M-series of chips, which debuted in 2020.
 
Inflationary memory costs will act as a headwind to AI PC adoption over the next several quarters, lengthening the adoption curve for these devices. Modern workloads are driving higher memory configurations for all PCs, with AI PCs often requiring 32GB as standard. OEMs pass the subsequent bill of materials cost increase on to customers to shelter their gross margins, which drives up PC prices and lengthening device refresh cycles and weakens the future-proofing argument underpinning AI PC sales.
 
TBR believes AI PC penetration is stronger in the consumer segment because those customers are more likely to pay a premium to gain access to features, such as Copilot Recall, and less likely to scrutinize marketing and sales messaging.