Digital Transformation Principal Analyst Bozhidar Hristov unpacks TBR’s predictions for the next three to five years of change in the IT services market. The conversation explores a fundamental shift underway in managed services: from a cost-optimization and labor-arbitrage model to a growth-oriented, insight-driven entry point for consulting, integration and modernization services. Boz explains why managed services are increasingly becoming a “door opener” rather than a back-end support function and examines why this pivot has been difficult for many consultancies to execute.
Boz concludes with a peek at TBR’s forward-looking research agenda for 2026 and beyond, covering changes to commercial models, the decline of time-and-materials pricing, evolving ecosystem dynamics, and how service providers must rethink partner strategies as digital labor becomes a core part of managed services delivery.
Episode highlights:
• Leading with managed services to drive other business
• Changing staffing pyramids
• Changing pricing models
“We’re starting to hear vendors starting to think about investments into the whole notion of agent-managed services as well, because, you can say, why do you care about managed services when agent, agentic AI will likely be substituting a lot of the human-enabled delivery? I think there’ll be parts of that, but I think there’ll be still the last mile of the support where it will be needed from a human perspective, and that human-in-the-loop kind of involvement will remain critical. And that’s why I think some of those vendors will use that as they try to pivot their business models; they try to adjust their business model moving forward because this is where the trust comes into place. Where you are able to answer the CFO’s questions, the chief system information [officer’s], the CISO questions and so forth. … I think 2026, we’re going to hear more examples of it, but I think this is the model of the future, at least for the next three to five years,” said Hristov.
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy
2026 Predictions: Telecom
TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors.
I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about our 2026 Managed Services Predictions with Boz Hristov, Principal Analyst for TBR’s Digital Transformation Practice.
Leading with managed services to drive other business
I’m here with Boz Hristov, whose portfolio covers digital transformation, ecosystems, and professional services. So, we want to talk about 2026 in two different ways. First predictions and then what you are excited to be researching next year. So, let’s start with predictions first. Out of all the predictions that you were involved with coming up with this year, as we end 2025, what is the one that you’re most excited about, you’re most confident about? Maybe the one you’re afraid might actually come true in 2026.
Bozhidar Hristov, TBR Principal Analyst: *laughs* Yeah, predictions are a tricky one. Thanks for having me. So I think looking at the way the market has evolved in the last three years, and maybe what’s coming, not just in 26, but maybe looking even beyond that kind of a one year, but maybe into the three-year horizon as well, because I feel like we are starting to make some pivots into the next three-year, three to five year kind of a change in the marketplace. I think the biggest shift that’s going to start kind of paving the way for the next three years is the role of managed services and how the companies that have been investing in managed services position it. As historically we know the outsourcing, labor arbitrage has been enabled, a lot of the low-cost providers to drive a significant amount of business, but it’s been a support mechanism for the large enterprises, has enabled some businesses to come around and to make a name for themselves. And it has been, again, being kind of like, okay, a cost driver, cost optimization driver.
I think what we’re going to start seeing is how companies are looking at and considering managed services and the capabilities that they have been investing in both the skills and the tools in the last three years to use them as a business growth driver and be not just kind of essentially pivoting from the low-cost delivery model and factory model to more of a business growth model for those organizations. And looking in to understand how supporting the client’s environments will provide them with the insights that are needed for potentially new consulting opportunities, for better process improvement opportunities, and just trying to think about how they can service the clients better. I mean, one can argue and say, well, that’s essentially managed services what it has been, right? But I think the change here is that vendors will look into managed services as a door opener, not as a door closer, essentially. So, it’s in a way, they will lead with managed services to drive consulting. They will lead with the discussion around process optimization, which essentially, in a way, it’s almost like a Trojan horse for them, it allows them to increase that stickiness, to learn the client environments. I think some of the vendors like the India-based outsourcing companies have a very strong foothold and a starting point. We’ve seen some of the consultancies like Deloitte and Accenture trying to go in that direction and kind of change the paradigm. We know others like, you know, some of the other- the rest of the Big Four also have been investing in managed services. I don’t think they’re going to go that far that way to lead with managed services, but I think the investment profile suggests that they’ll try to definitely lean more heavily than they have in the past.
So, I think this is kind of the big change, is kind of changing the paradigm and lead with managed services to drive consulting, lead with managed services to drive integration services, modernization services, and so forth. That on itself is not going to be an overnight phenomenon. I think we are in a transition year that we’re going to start seeing that model evolve and be a version of it potentially in the next three years, five years.
We’re starting to hear vendors starting to think about investments into the whole notion of agent-managed services as well, because, you can say, why do you care about managed services when agent, agentic AI will likely be substituting a lot of the human-enabled delivery? I think there’ll be parts of that, but I think there’ll be still the last mile of the support where it will be needed from a human perspective, and that human-in-the-loop kind of involvement will remain critical. And that’s why I think some of those vendors will use that as they try to pivot their business models, they try to adjust their business model moving forward because this is where the trust comes into place. Where you are able to answer the CFO’s questions, the Chief System Information, the CISO questions and so forth. So, this is, I think that’s what we’re going to- we’re starting to hear about it right now. I think 2026, we’re going to hear more examples of it, but I think this is the model of the future, at least for the next three to five years.
Patrick: So, two quick questions and an observation. So, the two questions, quick questions. When you talk about managed services and growth, you’re seeing the managed services revenue growth continue up. And then what you’re talking about is sort of a sliver or a piece of it directly tied- a piece of consulting revenue directly tied to those managed services opportunities that’s going to grow alongside it and faster, yes?
Boz: Yes. It’s exactly- it’s both, actually. I think it’s, you know, managed services, yes, will continue to grow, but it’s exactly that. It will create opportunities for the management consultancies to drive up and to expand, you know, what has been a struggling market in the last couple of years for consultancies. And it’s a way of them to deliver value, to deliver outcomes, you know, and to be a little bit more tangible in their offerings because we know consulting and outcomes can be sometimes a little bit like up for interpretation. And when the consultants and the services providers talk about outcomes, in this case, I think we’ll require them to be a little bit more concrete as a way to demonstrate the value rather than just saying, you are going to be getting some kind of an outcome, but very kind of a wishy-washy.
Why hasn’t this model happened before?
Patrick: Right, so, then a quick question on that, and sort of maybe you’re answering it right there, but it makes so much sense for managed services to be an entree to consulting. Why hasn’t it happened? Or more importantly, what are the things that will prevent some companies from being able to- some IT services companies and consultancies from being able to execute on that model?
Boz: Yeah, I’ll probably start with a second here. I think what’s going to prevent is a lot of it is going to boil down to internal challenges, because especially consulting firms, they are known for, that’s their brand is to lead with consulting, right? So, it’s very hard for take BCG or anybody else like, you know, has been known to start with managed services, even some of the Big Four firms, as much as they’ve been investing in managed services, it’s going to be much harder for them to, say, we are now managed service providers first then consultants.
Patrick: So, BCG starts with consulting, so it’ll be hard for them to start with managed services.
Boz: To make that change. It’s a branding headwind. It is an internal kind of a stakeholder change, you know, change management headwind. And I think that has been probably one of the key reasons why it has not happened. I think the other part is that it will be hard for those companies, some of those companies, to convince buyers that they actually are good at managed services, or they have the right price point for managed services.
Patrick: Right.
Boz: I think that’s part of it as well. Just like it’s hard for those companies to convince buyers that they can develop and sell software, which we know it’s-
Patrick: We know that story really well.
Boz: We know that story well, and we know it’s coming around again now with GenAI, agentic AI. So, I think this is kind of like the, it’s- we’re kind of circling right back to what we’ve been saying for years. It’s staying within your own swim lane probably is your best strategy. And when you need to partner first rather than trying to build yourself. Not even, I’ll say partner, build, buy, try to maybe change that kind of the sequence of those things. But yeah, that’s how I see it.
Topics of interest for 2026 portfolio: The changing staffing pyramids and pricing models
Patrick: So, what you just said leads to an observation for me that I think is part of the next question, the big question I have for you. And what I think you’ve been saying is that the last couple of years have been just so disruptive with GenAI first and then agentic AI. And just we’ve had two or three years where the change is happening so fast. But now we’re about to go into a three to five year stretch where change is going to happen more slowly and some of the more strategic decisions and some of the more, the decisions like around how you change to a managed service led business model are going to play out in a longer horizon.
Boz: Yup.
Patrick: So if that’s the case and you said, right, so I’m going to take it as it is, what are, when you look out next year, 2026, but even three years, what are some of the issues that you’re looking forward to diving into deeper. Where do you want to go deeper with some of the research?
Boz: Yeah, I think if we start looking into that horizon of the managed services led, kind of a business services, business model, essentially, for most of the companies, there’s a couple of things that will certainly, for us, will be on the horizon from a research perspective and going deeper immediately. I would say understanding the changes of the staffing model of the companies. Understanding the mix of the staffing model between humans and digital FTEs, understanding how that’s going to impact the P&L of the companies that we track closely. I mean, we know those companies’ P&L fairly well. We understand the ins and outs of the P&L in terms of hiring, understand the cost of services structure, and whatnot. Now when you start adding the digital FTE, I think that’s going to be a big element of change because when it comes to managed services, you’re also trying to, at the same time, trying to introduce new technology as an enabling to those managed services, how do you account for that as part of your talent pyramid? How do you account for that as part of your pricing model? How do you account for that when it comes to your profitability levels and predictability levels? So, I think these are some of the questions we’ll be going after to better understand the implications and what are the variables that are shaping in a digital FTE build out. I mean, you know, we know what a human costs, you know, it looks like, right?
Patrick: Right.
Boz: Salary, benefits, insurance. But then we think about digital FTE, like what are some of the variables that need to be accounted for and how do you blend that with the humans? And then most importantly, how do you monetize that? How do you price it to the client so that client understands what they’re paying for? Because that’s another thing that clients are increasingly looking for, enterprises are increasingly looking for is transparency. So, I think for us, that will keep us definitely very busy understanding the changes of the staffing pyramid to account for the inclusion of digital FTE. That’s going to be a big factor. Changes in the commercial models of the organizations we track closely now will be another factor for us to, from a research perspective, understanding who’s really making a pivot in there. Because if we look at the times and materials being kind of the predominant commercial model today, probably it’s fair to say that in the next five to seven years, that times and materials, there’ll be probably a fraction. Maybe if we’re at 90% today, probably going to be less than 10% in the next five or seven years.
Patrick: Right.
Boz: And that’s understanding those incremental changes, that’s going to require to make those companies who certainly will keep us busy. And then last but not least is also, all these changes cannot occur in a vacuum. They occur in the ecosystem, right? So, understand the implications of your partners and communication and setting up the right strategy as you’re going to market. I mean, those digital FTEs, as I mentioned, they can be viewed as a piece of software, they are a piece of software, but your partners may see them as being a threat to their business model as well. So how do you then build that in a way that your partners understand the value proposition of a digital FT versus not being seen as a threat to their core business? Those agents, it’s a very fluid word, agents, right?
Patrick: Right.
Boz: So, I think you have to be very careful how you message your evolving value proposition within your partner ecosystem as well.
Patrick: That’s fantastic, and in a minimum guaranteed, we’re going to see sometime in the next year to three years where the benchmark, one of the benchmarks you work on, the Global Delivery Benchmark, will have to become the Global and Digital Delivery Benchmark, right?
Boz: Very likely. I mean, understanding the changes in the composition, it’s going to be a big part of it. Understanding those, like I said, digital FTEs are becoming an element. We are keeping an ear out, essentially, we have some anecdotal examples at this moment, but again, it’s more of a time horizon. It’s not an overnight change, but it’s beginning to kind of like everyone’s accounting for those changes.
Final thoughts
Patrick: Excellent. Thanks, Boz.
Boz: Thank you.
Patrick: Next week, I’ll be speaking with Ben Carbonneau and Angela Lambert about 2026 Devices and Infrastructure predictions.
Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.
Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us, and see you next week.
TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms
Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.
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TBR’s ecosystem intelligence experts break down 2026 predictions for alliances and partnerships across cloud, software, infrastructure and the rapidly evolving edge ecosystem. The team dives into the resurgence of enterprise edge, why AI is accelerating demand for edge deployments, and how systems integrators and OEMs are redefining orchestration, commercial models, and partner engagement as infrastructure and platforms become tightly integrated.
Episode highlights:
• Edge and enterprise edge growth
• Sovereign AI expectations Which vendors will be best suited for multiparty alliances
• Which vendors will be best suited for multiparty alliances
“The prediction that we have focuses on sovereign AI, which is getting a lot of focus. We look a lot at the government sector. So, solutions that work within the constraints of the regulatory environment but still provide the AI benefits that the commercial markets are able to access is a hot topic and one that really requires the most partnership activity,” said TBR Principal Analyst Allan Krans.
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy
2026 Predictions: Alliances & Partnerships
TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem, from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors.
I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about our 2026 Alliances Predictions with Allan Kranz, Principal Analyst for TBR’s Cloud and Software Practice, and Angela Lambert, Principal Analyst for TBR’s IT Infrastructure and Devices Practice.
Prediction: 2026 growth of edge and enterprise edge
Allan and Angela, welcome back to the podcast. We’re here today talking about our predictions for 2026, and because we each run a different practice at Technology Business Research, we’re looking at it from the ecosystem. So, what is happening among the different companies that we cover, and what are those things going to look like in 2026 with respect to investments, with respect to growth, and then of course, really importantly, with respect to partnerships, alliances? What are we going to see different in 2026? Angela, we’ll start with you. Throw out something there that we can bite into.
Angela Lambert, TBR Principal Analyst: All right. So, my prediction on partnership and ecosystem in 2026 is going to be specific to AI at the edge and enterprise edge. So TBR, we’re projecting about a 20% CAGR on enterprise edge growth. And that’s really predicated upon the idea that AI is bringing a faster innovation and proliferation of edge use cases. So, the edge use cases have obviously been something that’s been targeted for a long time, but we’re seeing more evolution there, and we think that changes in partnership activity are going to help drive that growth.
Patrick: And so, edge doesn’t get deployed by one partner within the ecosystem. Edge requires infrastructure, it requires devices, it requires connectivity, it requires I hope services and consulting in there as well. So, when you talk about that 20% CAGR, are you saying across edge as a whole or are you looking at just the infrastructure players and where they’re going to see some revenue growth?
Angela: Yeah, we’re looking at edge from a relatively holistic view. So, we take into account the infrastructure software as well as service providers as part of that.
Patrick: Okay. And are there certain companies you think, again, because we always look at things company by company first, are there certain companies you think are going to benefit more from, and I’ll call it a resurgence in edge, because I feel like we talked about edge 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 years ago. Now it’s coming back. We can probably dive into the why in another time, but which of the companies you think will benefit most from this resurgence?
Angela: I think, well, that’s probably a multipart answer, but starting out with services, I think that as much as ever, there’s the opportunity there to be an orchestrator between the technology. So, NVIDIA obviously is helping to renew activity within edge in areas like high-tech manufacturing, for example. And what we see there is that you have the NVIDIA platform, right? And as much as that is enabling and simplifying with blueprints and ways to deploy, probably still not as plug and play as it could be for enterprises who might not have the skill set. So, you need the systems integrator or services provider there to provide another layer of orchestration. Hopefully you agree with that as the services expert here.
Patrick: I do, but it leads to a question, but you can…
Angela: Okay, great. So, you have that layer. And then you’re going to see the infrastructure providers also providing a little bit of service. So, they’re helping in terms of the deployment, integration, and orchestration more closely tied to the box level or the infrastructure layer. But ultimately, I do think you’ll see a lot of opportunity for those groups to work together and also bring in a fourth group, which is the industry-specific ISVs who need to play a role as well.
Patrick: Right. So traditionally, and this is the question that comes to mind when you laid that out, traditionally, IT services companies and consultancies don’t want to sell boxes. And when you’re talking about edge, at the end of the day, you’re talking about a physical thing there. So, is there something about AI and something about where we’re going in 2026 that is going to change that calculation for the IT services companies and the consultancies? Is there something else that the infrastructure players and the device manufacturers are bringing to the table that makes it more appealing?
Angela: I would say perhaps the fact that NVIDIA and the OEMs are so well integrated at this point, because you don’t have one without the other in this case. The OEMs are using a lot of NVIDIA’s blueprints to create their own infrastructure that’s going to be more easy for enterprises to adopt.
Patrick: Right.
Angela: But then it requires things like NVIDIA Omniverse, for example. And that’s where the platform piece comes in. And it’s so tightly coupled with the infrastructure that maybe the systems integrators in this case are more inherently interested in the infrastructure as well, because they’re so closely tied together.
Patrick: Right. So, it’s almost like as the ecosystems have evolved in the last 5, 6, 7, 8 years, and the IT services companies and the consultancies have partnered increasingly with these companies, edge is just an accelerant of that. It’s not something new. They know how to go through the motions, I don’t mean that in a bad way, but they know how to generate revenue with those partnerships. Now you add edge onto it because of a greater AI adoption, right?
Angela: Right, absolutely.
Patrick: Good. I’m glad I’m right about that one.
Prediction: Sovereign AI will need more resources and time to scale
So, Allan, now you’re going to tell me I’m wrong about something else, but let’s pivot to cloud and software and what is it that you’re seeing in the ecosystem you think is going to be most important in 2026?
Allan Krans, TBR Principal Analyst: Yeah, I think the prediction that we have focuses on sovereign AI, which is getting a lot of focus. We look a lot at the government sector. So, solutions that work within the constraints of the regulatory environment, but still provide the AI benefits that the commercial markets are able to access is a hot topic and one that really requires the most partnership activity. And that extends not only with the technology providers, the service providers, but obviously with the agencies and the governments themselves in terms of the guidance and guardrails for how these types of solutions can be compliant at all different levels.
And with sovereign AI, it starts with the physical data centers, goes into data security, all the regulation there. You add on model training development, another area of complexity and one that there’s a whole new host of providers that need to come in to ensure the security and compliance at that level. And even on top of that, Agentic, so having something that not only provides intelligence but takes action on it, obviously introduces a whole new area of risk and it’s just so uncertain in terms of how that’s going to work and what the best practices are that going into 2026, I think there’s still a lot of training, development, waiting for regulation to become clearer and get some things in practice before we’ll really see the sovereign AI adoption at scale really kind of pick up and be something that moves the needle for the larger providers.
Patrick: And we saw- this is very- so there’s lots of echoes of sovereign cloud. So how many of those echoes are loud and how many of them are, it’s a completely different world when we move from sovereign cloud to sovereign AI.
Allan: Well, it’s a prerequisite. So, you need to have the sovereign cloud, and that’s a country by country endeavor for a lot of areas of the globe. So that in and of itself is still developing and maturing. But we’ve seen, there’s new opportunity for new providers there as well. We’ve seen, obviously, AWS was early in terms of the physical infrastructure, but Microsoft, even Google getting back in. And we expect more from Oracle as well as they have a big focus on government and AI. And when you combine those two things, we’re seeing them take advantage of an opportunity in the market where they can gain some ground. Obviously, with the broader commercial workloads and the market in general, they’re a distant 4th in terms of the size, but in terms of their booked backlog, a lot of which is AI-driven, they have an opportunity to really close some of that gap and be on par with some of the larger providers. At least in terms of AI and, you know, the government focus for them has always been strong. So again, 2026 may be a little bit early in terms of really seeing them take advantage, but over the next three to four years, there’s a big possibility for them to grow and at least close some of the market share gaps that already exist.
Patrick: Right. And Oracle may be small when you talk about the cloud practice and sovereign cloud specific to AWS and Google Cloud Platform and Azure, but they’re huge. Are there other players that are smaller that you think are going to be either disruptive or just have a really good year in 2026 or 2027 because of what’s happening with sovereign AI?
Allan: Yeah, I mean, I think Google’s the other provider that has a big opportunity. They’ve always had a focus and a concentration in capabilities around analytics. And so that plays very nicely into AI, GenAI, eventually the sovereign AI, as they start to rebuild some of their government presence, which is something that they’ve been doing over the last couple of years to really kind of get back into that market in a way that’s significant. And some of the big US deals that include Google provide some of that opening. But I think the focus on analytics and sovereign AI, again, is a big opportunity for them.
Patrick: And you mentioned earlier, when we’re talking about sovereign AI, we’re talking about country by country, maybe region, maybe EU as a region making- passing regulations. That’s an opening for the consultancies in particular, to be able to say, this is what’s changing in the regulation, this is how it’s going to affect the enterprise and their business, but also consulting to the Azures and the Oracles and all that. Do you anticipate that an Oracle or a Microsoft Azure or AWS will be going to market with a consultancy to say, these are the folks that know best about what’s happening with this regulation, where it’s going, how you can, as an enterprise, best set yourself up to be respectful or in compliance with sovereign AI rules.
Allan: Absolutely. I think they’re the key kind of translation point between the technology vendors and the end customers, and they’re tightly partnered on both sides of that relationship. So, the actors kind of change based on the region and the government. The US, we have a very clear view of the leaders there, and all of them are focused on AI, whether that’s just a marketing pitch, a glossy layer on top of existing solutions, that’s all being ferreted out. And then when you go overseas, same type of market, different actors, but those specialists that focus on working with government agencies as their main business will be at the forefront of mapping the technology within the confines of the regulatory environment and the mission of whatever government organization that they’re working with. So, all that complexity definitely means opportunity for the SIs because the government agencies are not going to be able to do it themselves in terms of these initiatives.
Patrick: Right, and that’s where when we look at the individual SIs and the consultancies, one thing that we’re looking at is what kinds of qualifications do they have in the different government agencies? What have they done in the federal sector or the state and local, and what have they done in the EU that would position them to benefit from this surge, an expected surge around sovereign AI, and maybe a continuation of sovereign cloud as well, because like you said, it’s a prerequisite getting that done.
We have seen, in looking at the IT services companies and the consultancies, a new preference for a leaning towards a multiparty engagement, where they’re not just going to market with an Azure, but they’re going to market with Azure and SAP, or put together any string of companies you want to. The challenge is always the commercial models, the sales models, the compensation, who’s actually getting which piece of the pie. But increasingly, what we’re hearing and seeing from IT services companies and consultancies is their message to the enterprise clients is, we’re bringing you the best commercial terms with these three companies that we’re partnering with, and we’re orchestrating that. And so, we want to go to market, we want to bring this to you. And it’s a way of no longer being agnostic, no longer saying, we’ll partner with everybody, but instead being very specific and saying, these are the companies that we’re partnering with. We have a special relationship. And that special relationship allows us to bring better commercial terms, better innovation, faster, better service, global service, and all that.
Who is best suited for multiparty alliances
So, if you think about it in that context, are there certain companies that you cover that are more both organizationally, culturally, in terms of their leadership, maybe in terms of the portfolio, better suited to a multiparty kind of environment? Or there’s some companies that are, and I’ll throw one name out there, and I’m not entirely sure this is true, but I’ll throw it out there anyway. We think about Workday as having a very specific set of parameters for how they like to partner, which has worked for them really well, but they don’t partner with everybody. They’re very selective about who they partner with and what they do with them. That’s great. It’s worked. It’s been tremendous for them. We think going forward, it’s going to be a lot harder to do that because the IT services companies and the consultancies are going to say, yes, but. Yes, but we want to be very specific with you, and we want to bring in this other partner into it as well. And so, when you think about the companies you cover, are there some that are really well positioned, again, culturally, organizationally, leadership, portfolio, to expand and be part of a super group within the ecosystem? Allan, you want to go first on that.
Allan: Sure. Yeah, I mean, I think Microsoft is best positioned to really play in a number of different ways with different partners. Even though they were early with OpenAI, you’ve seen them broaden and not only really some of the constraints around OpenAI, but bring in other models and have a diverse set of capabilities that they can offer to customers. A lot of different reasons for that, but I think they’re very good at that type of partnership, working with Oracle, around some of the opportunity around Oracle Database within Azure environments. So, I think they’re the most motivated to continue the AI-led growth and trade-off in terms of some of the financial aspects and the way that they monetize it. So, I think that’s something that they definitely stand out as being more partner forward in the AI sector than others.
Patrick: Right. Angela, how about you, the companies you cover?
Angela: Of the infrastructure OEMs, I think they still try to be a little more broad and have not mastered some of the tenants you’re describing on establishing partnerships that give you some of those benefits. I will say you see pockets of it, for example. I think Dell Technologies is a great example where they’ve invested heavily in certain companies like Red Hat or even Microsoft Azure, and they’ve developed together integrations that really speed up deployment and the ongoing management updating of infrastructure, so they’ve intertwined their management capabilities on a very deep level. So, we do see, we see some of that, but at the same time, they’re still trying to appeal very broadly to a lot of different companies.
Patrick: Right, and a lot of that is because that’s how they have operated in the past. And that’s- it’s really hard to tell somebody within the organization, hey, we’re no longer focused on that partner you’ve been working with for so long. We’re instead focused on this particular set of partners. And that kind of change is really hard to do. We have seen in the, again, in the IT services companies and the consultancies. There’s EY, which is all in on only Microsoft out of the cloud vendors, and also all in with Dell. And so that three-way, I think we will see in my- I guess my prediction in 2026 is we’re going to see a lot more of that, where it’s a three or four-way partnership led by one of the Big Four, led by one of the consultancies that is able to orchestrate that by saying, we’re all in with you and we’re only working with you. And of course, only doesn’t mean never working with everybody else. It means that’s where the strategic investments are made. That’s where the leadership is focused. That’s where the company is culturally aligned to.
Bets for the technology to be talked about the most in 2026
So, last question as we wrap this up, we have- a couple of years ago, nobody said GenAI, and then that’s all we talked about. In 2025, all we talked about was agentic AI. I can remember when the Metaverse was a thing. I can remember when blockchain was a thing. So, what is the- by the end of 2026, what’s the technology that we’re going to be surprised that we’ve been talking about all year long?
Angela: Well, for me, given that I picked an edge-related prediction, I think I am obligated to say physical AI is for my term right there. I have to. That’s going to be the one we start writing about and talking about a lot more.
Patrick: Right. And I fully appreciate that physical AI is bigger than robots, but having spent time at the NVIDIA event, all I can say is that’s what everybody uses instead of just saying robots. Just say robots, that’s what it is. But yeah, I understand it’s more than that. Physical AI. All right, Allan, you got something to beat that?
Allan: Maybe just the augmented general AI intelligence. I think it’s come up as a concern, a threat that there’s a tipping point once we get to certain levels of AI being embedded in most things that are being done in organizations, that there’s a whole host of risk factors that are introduced. And so, I think that- we’re still always off, but we’ll definitely come back on the radar screen later in the year.
Patrick: I think we’re going to see, this might be surprising, I think we’re going to see blockchain make a comeback by the end of 2026. And the reason is because we’re starting to see it creep into a lot of offerings, not as a headline technology, but as an underpinning to whatever the offering of the service is. It’s a layer that is increasingly becoming necessary. And that’s great right now, but eventually it’s going to be the realization that, oh, right, AI is all about data, and data at the end of the day is actually best done on blockchain. And so, I think we’re going to see an uptick, a significant uptick in blockchain as something that we hear about, talk about, realize is an important piece of the broader technology puzzle and the broader ecosystem. Any other last thoughts before we wrap up?
Angela: Wow. *laughs*
Allan: I mean, the other thing we may be talking about is small nuclear power, right?
Patrick: I hope so. I’d say knock on wood for that one. Yeah, I think that’ll be a huge benefit to solving what is a looming challenge around energy and water with respect to powering AI. And that’s going to be, that’s the 2026/2027 super challenge for these companies.
Angela: Absolutely. And that’s the reason I even, I picked edge as a prediction in growth areas because we see the roadblocks and barriers coming, right? There’s only so much energy, so much real estate, so much capacity for production. So, where’s AI going to take that turn and be smaller, more accessible? And I think that’s why we’re going to see vendors focus more on edge this year too, because it’s attainable.
Patrick: Yeah, that’s fact. That’s fantastic. It’s smaller, more accessible, well smaller, more accessible AI as opposed to this, you know, AI is everywhere and everything to everybody. So excellent.
Final thoughts
Allan, thank you. Angela, thank you. And we’ll do this again very soon.
Angela: Thanks, Patrick.
Allan: Thank you.
Patrick: Next week, I’ll be speaking with Boz Hristov about our 2026 managed services predictions.
Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.
Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.
TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms
Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.
“TBR Talks” is available on all major podcast platforms. Subscribe today!
Are we approaching the end of traditional SaaS as AI-native architectures and agentic platforms take center stage?
TBR Cloud & Software Senior Analyst Alex Demeule discusses which SaaS incumbents are best positioned to execute a true hard pivot toward AI, highlighting how workforce restructuring, sales realignment and platform modernization at vendors like Salesforce, SAP and Microsoft reveal early signs of strategic transformation. Additionally, this conversation explores the growing tension between general-purpose large language models and specialized small language models, digging into the economics, power constraints, and architectural trade-offs that will define enterprise-grade AI applications.
Episode highlights:
• Which vendors are positioned well for the pivot from traditional SaaS to AI strategies
• The partial displacement of large language models
• Key expectations for SAP, Microsoft and Salesforce
“We’re seeing these partnerships form where you’re bringing in domain expertise from the outside and then working on building niche models. And these niche models are going to be specialized. And they’re not going to be as capable from a general-purpose standpoint, but when you focus the training data and you focus how you’re building these models around the workflow, you’re able to get use-case-level capability that is on par with the largest models out there,” said Demeule.
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy
2026 Predictions: Cloud & Software
TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors.
I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about 2026 SaaS predictions with Alex Demeule, Senior Analyst for TBR’s Cloud and Software Practice.
Who is positioned well for a hard pivot from traditional SaaS to AI strategies
Alex, thanks very much for coming in today, and you have the predictions document out there. There’s a lot in it. Congratulations. You were able to do 3 full predictions. In the services side, we only came up with two.
Alex Demeule, TBR Senior Analyst: *laughs*
Patrick: So, you’re ahead of us on that to start. But I want to pull out a couple of things, and I had to write them down when I was reading it because it’s really, you get deep very quickly. The overall concept was, are we at the death of software as a service. That was the overall concept. But you don’t have to answer that question necessarily, but one thing you did write was about a hard pivot from traditional SaaS to AI strategies. And that would be the companies that are traditionally been in that space making that hard pivot. So, it immediately made me curious, like which of the companies that you cover are well positioned to do a hard pivot because hard pivots are by definition hard.
Alex: Yeah, absolutely. And you know, the topic that we went after with this report is such a fun one. And it’s one that we’ve been asked so many times this year because everyone’s trying to get a lay of the land on where are we today? What does this look like? You know, we can see these sort of threads kind of coming through that, these threads that are disrupting the SaaS model and making the whole idea of a UI and an application seem like, you know, how many years in the future does that still exist? Like if we are able to continue on this path of innovation where agents get better, how does that role diminish, and what does that timeline look like? And that’s one of those questions that I think everybody is scratching their head wondering, because we live in this gray world right now where we’re kind of at the precipice of the possibility, but we’re not there yet. And we’re kind of watching what these innovative model developers and the software leaders and the technology leaders, rather, that are leading this charge, watching what they’re doing. And obviously, they’re always going to be marketing with their best foot forward. And so, getting it to terms of what that timeline looks like, it’s a real challenge. And I don’t think there’s a person out there that can give you the perfect answer. And so, with this document, we really just tried to be practical and try to look at, where are we today? What are the challenges that the AI market is facing? And what are the sort of solutions that are on the horizon for those solutions? And that’ll probably ultimately give us an idea of sort of where this whole thing is going.
You asked about the hard pivot, and obviously the hard pivot, like you said, is something that not a lot of vendors can do. I think that when we look at the SaaS incumbents, it’s something that we’ve seen in a bunch of different places. We went through this whole workforce rationalization for a lot of the vendors that I cover, SAP, Salesforce, where we saw headcount declining, large 10% of workforce layoffs. And then on the tail end of that, we saw rehiring come in right away. And all that rehiring was going into AI sales, AI product.
Patrick: Right.
Alex: And so, we really have seen a pretty big workforce transformation for a lot of these software incumbents. Salesforce and SAP are the two that jump off the page for me, given just they’re software pure plays. Microsoft, obviously, you have that massive infrastructure, so we didn’t really see that sort of headcount recalibration.
Patrick: Right.
Alex: We still see some, but it wasn’t necessarily as pronounced as it was when you looked at the numbers for SAP and Salesforce. So, a lot of these big players are looking at their headcount and at their resources and saying, okay, this is what it looked like. We’re going towards AI and that has to be a strategic priority. What do we have to do within our resource base to be prepared to go after that? And that’s something that has been, you know, to different degrees, kind of ubiquitous.
Patrick: Okay.
Alex: SAP and Salesforce, they really went all in on it. And Salesforce just had their earnings call last night. One of the things that they did was they declined their sales headcount dramatically just two years ago, going through an operational efficiency program, but now it’s up 20% year to year. And so, we’ve seen their sales force go from being cut dramatically. And at that time, some people were talking about like, oh, they’re going to try to lean on their own AI capabilities to sort of augment that massive decline in sales headcount. But that just was not what played out. What we really saw was them getting rid of a lot of sales headcount that were trained and sort of focused on the more traditional software lines, but then hiring back dramatically in the AI sphere and to focus on AI.
Patrick: Right, so when you talk about a hard pivot coming, in some ways it’s the companies that have already begun that pivot that are best positioned to be able to do that. And I understand the struggle, or I understand where the question’s coming from about when will the software as a service model sort of fade away is partly because you don’t want to be caught still using that commercial model, still using that business model when the rest of the world has moved on to something else.
Alex: Mmhm
Patrick: And being able to predict that, of course, is, as you kind of noted, kind of impossible.
Partial displacement of large language models
So, one thing I also want to bring up another thing from what you wrote, that was about proprietary models will become critical differentiators for enterprise-grade AI applications. I read that, and I think you’re talking about displacing large language models. If proprietary models will become critical differentiators for enterprise-grade AI apps, is that displacement?
Alex: So, in my eyes, it is partially displacement. I don’t want to undersell the role of LLMs in the long-term AI opportunity. But one of the things that I think has gotten lost too often in this conversation is the role of diversified architectures when it comes to language models and AI models. You need to look, and we all need to look at some serious constraints that the AI market has. The two that jump off the page to me, cost and power need.
Patrick: Yeah.
Alex: And the cost and the power need is directly related to the number of parameter counts that a model has. And so, as we push general purpose large language models with hundreds and hundreds of billions of parameters, we’re setting ourselves up into a position where you have really a master of none that is extremely expensive to run.
Patrick: Right.
Alex: And so, the way around that, and something that, this isn’t- in SLM strategy, it’s not new. Like, we’re talking about stuff that’s been sort of in the works for Salesforce, Microsoft, for years now. And it’s been sort of quieter. We hear so much about their partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic because obviously those firms are sort of pushing the bleeding edge of general-purpose large language models. But Microsoft, they launched their Phi-3 family of SLMs over a year ago. And ever since that launch, they have been adding and adding new partners that they’re developing specific industry SLMs with on top of that.
Patrick: Right.
Alex: Salesforce, they released their xLAM, which they’re calling large action models, over a year ago. They’re working with Workday to be able to sort of build around that foundation for an HR type model. And so, we’re seeing these partnerships form where you’re bringing in domain expertise from the outside and then working on building niche models. And these niche models are going to be specialized. And they’re not going to be as capable from a general-purpose standpoint, but when you focus the training data, and you focus how you’re building these models around the workflow, you’re able to get use case level capability that is on par with the largest models out there. So, it’s about focusing on specific use cases. The flip side of that is that it’s a much more fragmented development. Like each- instead of focusing on building one model, it’s just something that has to happen across a multitude of engagements, each getting that SLM to a production quality AI model. So, there is a time disadvantage in some ways. In other ways, it requires a lot of partnership from Microsoft and Salesforce to bring in data that they might not necessarily have. When I think of Salesforce, they were great and have access to CRM data, but they’re really positioning themselves to be more than just a CRM agentic platform. They’re kind of trying to butt up against Microsoft specifically as being sort of an overarching agentic platform where it’s capable of dealing and working with HR and ERP and other software areas in addition to where their domain expertise is. But that’s all areas that they have to go out and partner with.
So, to me, in my eyes, the long term will incorporate large language models and small language models. And when I’ve talked to CTOs too, from software vendors, this is kind of the general architecture that they’re sort of looking for in the future, where an LLM is sort of sitting at the top of like the orchestration layer of an agentic platform, but that large language model is handing off specific tasks to SLM backed. So it’s the orchestration being handled by the powerful generalist model, but then the specific tasks, the work is being done at the SLM layer.
Patrick: Okay.
Alex: And so, the software vendors have been kind of the most forthcoming with that sort of SLM development, and it’s an area that I think that is going to create a lot of value, really be very important to lowering the cost of running these models, and a big part of them sort of cementing themselves within this AI opportunity.
Strong PaaS portfolios and credible SLM roadmaps: SAP, Microsoft and Salesforce
Patrick: And that’s a perfect segue to another question that I had, again, based on what you wrote. And this time I couldn’t even write it in my notebook, it’s too long. But I have to read it out loud because it’s super important. Platform services, data clouds, and integration layers have become the entry point for AI adoption. And this reorientation favors vendors with strong PaaS portfolios and credible SLM roadmaps, which you just touched on. So again, the first question that comes to my mind, because at TBR, we always come back to the specific companies, which are those vendors that have a strong PaaS portfolio and credible SLM roadmaps.
Alex: Well, I mentioned one already, Salesforce. You know, they’re a vendor that I would say that their past portfolio, it’s been improving over the years. I still think that they’re a little bit more immature relative to an SAP or a Microsoft, of course. Microsoft and what they’ve done with Fabric, I view as a pretty big move for them, and they’ve done a really great job of scaling that very quickly. Salesforce, we do see that traction early on. You’re foreseeing triple digit year-to-year increases for Data Cloud and Agentforce. And that’s great signs, but it’s kind of off of a small base. And so, Salesforce has done a lot of work in sort of improving that portfolio and that customer traction is starting. But I would still put them at a, sort of an immature positioning, but something that I think that they’ve shown early strength and that I think that they can get to that point.
SAP is a vendor that I think has been doing this well for a really long time, going all the way back to BTP and the attach rates that they saw with BTP on RISE migrations and S/4HANA cloud migrations, and being able to leverage that success into Signavio and LeanIX into sort of building these process automation integration workflows that are bringing their SaaS applications together and enabling sort of the groundwork for an agentic system that you can layer on top of that. I think SAP has done a great job at the PaaS layer. I would say that on the AI side of things, SAP has been a little bit weaker than Salesforce. You know, we’ve seen a lot of talk around Joule, but when we talk to customers around how valuable it is, that’s still an area where the jury is still out. When we talk to the, sort of the channel on Salesforce, I tend to hear a lot more bullish sentiment around what they’re doing with Agentforce relative to what SAP is doing with Joule and their other AI capabilities.
Partnership positioning: Microsoft, Salesforce and SAP
Patrick: Yeah. And then, because I’m always interested in the ecosystem play on this, are there certain companies that you cover that you think are probably better positioned to take advantage of all the changes that you’ve been talking about because of their strengths in partnering and their ability to partner better across the ecosystem.
Alex: Yeah, I mean, we cover- when I look at my coverage, it’s the biggest software vendors in the market. And by virtue of being the biggest, you’re also going to have- you’re going to present the most opportunity to partners, and that opportunity is going to drive partner engagement. Microsoft, I mentioned before, they have been tacking on new partners for their Phi family of industry models very consistently ever since they announced that initiative. And so the engagement has been great there. Salesforce has seen great engagement around partners building on Agentforce. SAP obviously has great partner engagement, especially when it comes to migrating to the cloud. As far as partner engagement on AI, again, this kind of comes back to sort of what we’ve heard on the ground level. It’s just less pronounced than what I’ve been seeing from Salesforce and Microsoft. But it’s still kind of a case where they’re preoccupied with getting to the cloud, where making this shift towards AI almost feels harder because they’re focused on that broader modernization story still. I think that they’re gonna- they’re kind of forced based on the market into sort of promoting their AI a lot and we continue to hear more and see them doing stuff. And so, they’re certainly working towards having a mature AI strategy, but that’s still something that I think that relative to Microsoft and Salesforce, I would put them at a little bit of a weakness. But again, we’re talking about the largest vendors, and there’s going to be partner engagement for a lot of these, or all these agentic platforms that are coming out.
Patrick: Right. And I think you touched on something there, maybe inadvertently, but the boom in marketing budgets, because everybody has to talk about how great they are at AI now. So, if you’re not marketing yourself around AI, you’re out of a job.
Looking at next year’s Cloud & Software portfolio
So last question, as we go into 2026, and you think about the companies that you cover, and you think about the portfolio, the Cloud and Software portfolio more broadly, are there certain issues you think you’re going to be tackling in the coming year, whether that’s new coverage or maybe more importantly, what are some of the- this is a question I want to really go sink my teeth into?
Alex: I mean, the big challenge for me right now is starting to quantify what’s happening within the finance- so right now we get loose estimates around revenue generation related to AI from all these vendors.
Patrick: Right.
Alex: But it’s never a clear view. And so, being able to dig into, okay, what is the monetization success? That’s something that is going to be on my mind in 2026. You know, Salesforce, they just had a good quarter in terms of their guidance going forward, and so they’re kind of at that point where they’re saying AI revenue is on the horizon now, and so does that come through? Is that real? And being able to put numbers to that, that’s going to be a big challenge in 2026.
Patrick: And that’ll be super important because we’ve heard now for a couple of years, just the massive numbers around, we’re investing a billion, 2 billion, 3 billion, 5 billion in AI. So now we need to see where’s the revenue that’s going to come out the other side.
Alex: Yeah. And that’s a massive question. I mean, it’s a whole other topic to go into sort of the investment cycle and especially on the hyperscaler side, which we’re talking about cloud software today so, outside the scope. But yeah, we got to see the money now. It’s very important.
Patrick: All right. We got to see the money now. That’s a great way to put it. And we will come back in season five and we’ll talk about exactly that question. Alex, thank you so much.
Alex: Appreciate it. Thank you.
Final thoughts
Patrick: Next week, I’ll be speaking with Allan Krans and Angela Lambert about our 2026 Alliances predictions.
Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.
Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us, and see you next week.
T
TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms
Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.
“TBR Talks” is available on all major podcast platforms. Subscribe today!
From the widening K-shaped economy to shifting customer affordability and changing price-for-value expectations, Principal Analyst Chris Antlitz outlines why telcos must rethink their pricing, bundling and financing models to stay competitive in 2026.
This conversation explores the big agenda items shaping the 2026 telecom landscape: the integration of 6G into market forecasts, edge computing’s renewed relevance, the energy problem slowing scale, and how previously hyped technologies like blockchain and the metaverse may be poised for resurgence.
Episode highlights:
•Which vendors are positioned well for the pivot from traditional SaaS to AI strategies
•The partial displacement of large language models
•Key expectations for SAP, Microsoft and Salesforce
“You have new competitive vectors coming into broadband, and you have over-investment on the fiber side because of [the] government bringing in a lot of capital to be paired with private capital. And it’s distorting the economics of, you know, how much it costs to deploy something, how many people are deciding to deploy. And that is going to have a shakeout,” said Antlitz.
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy
2026 Predictions: Telecom
TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors.
I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about 2026 telecom predictions with Chris Antlitz, Principal Analyst for TBR’s Telecom Practice.
Adjusting to a K-shaped economy: What it means for the telcos
Chris, let’s talk about telco predictions for 2026. What do you see as the most important both economic trends, but then also how that reflects for the telco companies themselves going into the new year?
Chris Antlitz, TBR Principal Analyst: Yeah, so I’d say one of the biggest themes we see in the economy is this whole notion of a K-shaped economy, this recovery coming out of COVID. And the bifurcation continues to widen, essentially. And we see that across a number of indicators across the economy. And really, the telcos, it’s about how do you adjust to that? Your customer base is- their needs and what they can afford is shifting. And they’re going to be- the telcos need to adjust to that new reality. So that’s one of the big predictions we have for 2026 is how do they adjust their plan pricing? What kind of new offerings do they come out with? How do they do bundling? How are they doing financing for devices? Those things, I think we’re going to see some changes there for 2026.
Patrick: Okay. And part of that, I think in your predictions talked about a price war around broadband. Can you maybe talk a little bit about what that’s going to look like or where you think that’s going to have an impact across, of course, it’ll have an impact on the companies themselves, but does that ripple into other parts of the ecosystem?
Chris: It does. So, I think when we think about the broadband market, there’s two things to think about. One is the economic considerations, and the other thing is the competitive dynamics. So, on the customer side, we just talked about the bifurcation of the customer base, and that’s not just for consumers and households, that’s also for businesses. We see that. So, it’s about reassessing what’s being purchased and price for value. So, like if someone’s maybe paying for a premium plan, maybe they trade down. Everybody needs internet. That’s an essential need.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: So, we’re not saying there’s going to be mass disconnects. We’re not saying anything like that. But what we are saying is that there’s going to be a reassessment of price for value. And you might see share shifting, you might see more bundling taking place for people to save some money. And they’re just going to reassess like what do they actually need and be assessing like what other options are there for getting high-speed internet access.
And then the second side of that is the competitive dynamic. So, we’ve had a lot of distortions in the broadband market with all the government largesse coming in to try and fund digital divide related programs, build more fiber, more fiber, more fiber. And then you also have other vectors of disruption. You have fixed wireless access coming in, which is high-speed internet. And you also have satellite internet. Like Starlink is legit.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: That is high-speed internet you can get. And you can actually go to big box stores now and buy a Starlink kit. You can go to Home Depot, Best Buy, they carry Starlink dishes now you can, or CPE devices you can buy and set up at your home. So, my point is that you have a lot of- you have new competitive vectors coming into broadband and you have overinvestment on the fiber side because of government bringing in a lot of capital to be paired with private capital. And it’s distorting the economics of, you know, how much it costs to deploy something, how many people are deciding to deploy. And that is going to have a shakeout, right? So, you’re going to have a situation where you have too many people chasing the same households and businesses. And the price points that people are expecting to pay for what they’re getting is also adjusting. So, you have those forces at play in the broadband market. And we’re going to see that really become more pronounced in 2026.
Patrick: So, too many companies chasing the same number of households, even as those households are changing their buying behavior, in particular on the down leg of that K economy.
Who is best positioned for 2026 and beyond, and who is in trouble
So, real quickly then, of the companies you cover, which are the ones that you think are best positioned for what you just described, for those conditions you just described?
Chris: So, we look at the, so there is bifurcation in terms of which broadband providers are relatively better positioned than others. So, I would say T-Mobile is really well positioned. AT&T in some of their markets is well positioned.
Patrick: Okay.
Chris: The companies that we’re more concerned about is the cable-cos. And we’re concerned about the incumbent satellite companies, the guys that are running MEO and GEO satellite constellations, not LEO.
Patrick: Okay.
Chris: So, Starlink is LEO. That’s the new disruptive vector because LEO, you get tremendous more capacity out of a LEO constellation compared to the others, and the latency is much lower. So, your QoS is way better with Starlink service versus an incumbent satellite company that’s running, you know, more legacy solutions. So those are some of the companies that we’re a little more concerned about in terms of share loss and having to engage in price cuts.
AI vs. telcos timetable clashing
Patrick: And you brought up, I mean, in my mind, you brought up something that I know you wrote about as well in a separate document about AI and the change cycle or the innovation cycle, the development cycle that AI is on relative to the telcos, which are more generational, AI is 18 months or even less. And one thing you talked about was sort of the uplink demand more than the downlink demand, how that is a real shift. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about how that changes where you think things are going to go in 2026?
Chris: So, the telecom industry moves really slow. And when I say telecom industry, I’m also talking about the standards bodies and all of the major ecosystem aspects of telecom move slow. So, they typically move in 10-year cycles for the wireless technology. The AI ecosystem, by contrast, is operating at an 18-month cycle of innovation. So those don’t- that doesn’t work.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: So, something’s going to have to give. You can’t have the AI ecosystem telling the telecom ecosystem, hey, we need you to do things differently or make upgrades like on a year and a half or so cycle if they’re not used to doing that and the numbers don’t work for them, right?
Patrick: Right.
Chris: So, something’s going to break in that equation. And what I think is going to happen is the hyperscalers, they’re not going to be held back. If the telecom industry doesn’t move faster and start to align with what the hyperscalers need, the hyperscalers are just going to go around them. And we see this today. This is not a radical assessment. Like, look, just this last few weeks, we’ve seen Google and Amazon come out with their own answers to NVIDIA GPUs, right?
Patrick: Yeah.
Chris: Running, doing AI workloads on their own custom silicon.
Patrick: It’s faster and faster. So yeah.
Chris: Exactly. Because NVIDIA is not aligning with their timetables. So- and the cost points, obviously, the performance and what they’re optimizing for. So why wouldn’t they do that in telecom, in networks? They absolutely would. I would say they are in some very specific areas. But the telcos, the telecom industry is lumbering along and the rest of the tech ecosystem is moving, is doing circles around them. So, something needs to break there. And I think 2026, we’re going to start to see some evolution pains.
Patrick: Okay.
Chris: Even if AI is in a bubble, which I think it is, the reality is AI is going to change everything at some point.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: So even if we go post-bubble, it’s still going to reconverge and come out of that. So, the investments that need to take place for the underlying infrastructure is still going to have to happen.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: And it’s going to be operating at tech cycles that are much faster than telecom, regardless of if it’s in a bubble or not, the AI.
Patrick: And I feel like we’ve been talking about, you and I have been talking about the slow change in telcos and the threat in the telecom space and the threat from the hyperscalers for a few years now. So, it’s really, it’s AI that sort of has changed, has accelerated how quick we’ll get to that breaking point.
Chris: Yeah, absolutely. Well, AI, and you said uplink before, right? You mentioned uplink.
Patrick: Yeah.
Chris: Like that’s just one example of how the network needs to change for an AI economy. Because if you look at the traffic, the type of the traffic composition and what resources are required for AI traffic versus more traditional network traffic, which is usually video downloads.
Patrick: Right, download, yeah.
Chris: It’s completely different.
Patrick: Yeah
Chris: So that requires a different architectural framework for the network.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: Well, now the telcos have to go figure that out and optimize for that. Like that requires CapEx. So, something’s going to break in that equation.
Patrick: Yeah. It reminds me of being with you at a Nokia event pre-pandemic and hearing them talking about download and upload and just to some degree at that point, not even caring about the upload part. That wasn’t even a part of the equation.
Chris: Yup.
Patrick: That wasn’t where the emphasis was. So, it’s crazy how much that’s changed.
What to look for in TBR’s 2026 Telecom portfolio
Speaking of change, so as we go into 2026, the telecom portfolio overall at TBR, what are the things that you’re, other than what you’ve already talked about, you know, AI and changes for the telcos, you know, broadband and all that, fixed wireless access. What are the other big topics, big issues that you’re going to dig your brain into in 2026?
Chris: So, next year, we’re going to start baking 6G into our forecasts.
Patrick: Okay.
Chris: So, we do five-year forecasts. So, five years out, 6G will be a thing.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: So we have to start planning and starting to loop that into the forecasts. So that’s a big change for next year. I would say that’s the biggest change for next year from a portfolio standpoint.
Patrick: And then what about issues that you think you, or have we already touched on everything you think you’re going to be focused on? Are there any other issues or anything that you sort of put off and said, well, that may or may not happen in 2026, but at least we’re going to keep an eye on it?
Chris: So, edge computing is something we’ve been covering. The market didn’t develop as the way that people were originally expecting.
Patrick: Yeah.
Chris: But edge computing is absolutely relevant still, especially in an AI economy. The power is such a problem. That has to get figured out. It is a stumbling block for the entire industry.
Patrick: 100%.
Chris: And if- that needs to get figured out and a few other things need to get figured out in order for edge computing to really scale. But the power is one of the biggest things. And that’s, you know, the hyperscalers are looking at this. Like they’re actually investing in energy solutions for this.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: And they’re spending many billions of dollars on that, just that one problem.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: So, we’ll see what happens in 2026. There’s a lot of hope in the nuclear renaissance, but the reality is you’re dealing with NIMBYism and you’re dealing with cost overruns and you’re dealing with delays, timetable delays.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: So, it takes, usually takes about a minimum of eight years to get a new nuclear plant up and running, minimum. Much more like 10 or a little bit more than that years on average for the states. So, those things need to be factored in. Like there’s no quick fix to the energy problem.
Patrick: Right. I think the earliest I’ve heard was 2027 and that just seems wildly ambitious, wildly ambitious.
Chris: Yeah.
Patrick: But I’m glad you brought up edge, because I feel like 2026 is going to be the year that a lot of previously hyped technologies come back, previously hyped emerging technologies come back. We’re looking at blockchain and how much blockchain is starting to percolate up again in the services space, and edge as well. So, it’ll be interesting. Chris, thanks very much.
Chris: Yeah, actually, before we end though, just on that last point of things coming back, the Metaverse [specifically AR/VR] is coming back.
Patrick: *laughs*
Chris: So, I want to make sure we fit this in.
Patrick: I hope you’re right.
Chris: So, I was at an event a few weeks ago, and- actually the 6G Summit in Brooklyn, and they had a Meta representative there, and he was the head of product for their glasses.
Patrick: Yeah.
Chris: And I knew that was getting a lot of traction, but the stuff that they have on the roadmap, and what they already have out in this newest generation of glasses. It’s become- it’s moving from novelty and early tech adopters. It’s going to start moving into the mainstream next year. That’s a big change.
Patrick: That will be massive. Yeah.
Chris: It’s a big change. So, and don’t count Apple out. They are still in that.
Patrick: It’s crazy to count them out. Yeah.
Final thoughts
Excellent, Chris. Thanks very much. We’ll do this again soon.
Chris: Cool.
Patrick: Awesome.
Next week, I’ll be speaking with Alex Demeule about his 2026 Cloud predictions.
Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.
Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.
TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms
Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.
“TBR Talks” is available on all major podcast platforms. Subscribe today!
As we close out 2025, “TBR Talks” host Patrick Heffernan and producer and TBR Marketing Coordinator & Account Executive Haley Demers sit down for a candid, end-of-year retrospective and a sneak peek at what listeners can expect in the new year. Additionally, the pair unpack the podcast’s growth, with nearly half of this season’s conversations featuring voices from outside TBR, and share a behind-the-scenes view of the show. They also discuss how those external perspectives have broadened the scope of the dialogue; how the show has evolved as listeners began to proactively reach out, asking to participate; and the unexpected value that emerged when technology-focused discussions turned personal.
Episode highlights:
• Memorable conversations about the intersection of humanity and technology
• Surprising conversations about career paths and entry points
• Bringing new ideas and ways of thinking to the table
• Bringing in more generational views and company-centric views in 2026
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy
‘TBR Talks’ Retrospective: What We Learned in 2025
Haley Demers, Marketing Coordinator and TBR Talks Producer: Hello, Patrick.
Patrick: Hello Haley.
Haley: It’s fun to be on this side of the computer, of the podcast today. We’re sitting here because as you know, we’re approaching the end of the year. It’s time for planning and reflecting and we’re not exempt from that here at TBR Talks.
Patrick: Absolutely, yeah. We’ve spent a lot of time doing predictions and stuff, and now it’s time to do a little retrospective, a little thinking back.
Haley: Yes, for sure. So, you know, cut to us being here today, looking back, reflecting on the past few years, specifically a really cool aspect of our most recent season. We’ve had a lot of guests over the four seasons we’ve been doing TBR Talks, and we’ve had the most guests in an individual season this season, season four. So thought it’d be fun to sit down and talk with you about what that’s really been like.
Patrick: I also think on the subject of the guests that we’ve had, my math is probably wrong because math is hard, but I think we’ve had at least as many, if not more, folks from outside of TBR on than we have from inside of TBR. And I’m not counting like Angela twice, you know, she counts as once, for example, or Boz, but I think we’ve had more people from outside the firm, which is kind of cool.
Haley: Yeah, so on that track, I’ve got some data for you.
Patrick: Great
Haley: Since we are an analyst firm. So, since the start of 2024, we’ve produced 56 full episodes so far, four4onus episodes. This is going to be our 57th episode. And we’ve had 30 different guests total on the podcast.
Patrick: Wow, alright.
Haley: Eleven of those have been from outside of TBR. And do you want to guess how many have been this season?
Patrick: At least six, I think.
Haley: Six, yeah, you’re right on the money there. Did you expect it to be that many?
Patrick: No, and I think we’ve been lucky because people have been listening to it and then coming to us and saying, hey, we’d love to be on the podcast. And that’s been a surprise for me. And it’s been fantastic because the conversations we had this season four have been certainly more far-reaching, broader, wider than we’ve had in the past three seasons, I think.
Haley: Yeah, it’s been extremely cool to see folks who we talk with in our everyday, day-to-day, as well as folks who are listeners who come in and say, hey, I’ve got something to say, I think we’d be a good fit. Can we have a conversation and see where it takes us? That’s been a- it’s been a really cool feature of this past season.
Patrick: It’s been really fun. *laughs*
Memorable conversations about humanity and technology intersections
Haley: *laughs* So, I guess to kind of bring the retrospective here, I’ve got some, kind of, superlative questions for you.
Patrick: Sure.
Haley: So, in your role as Principal Analyst here at TBR, you talk to a lot of people. I’d say talking and writing are the two main features of your role.
Patrick: *laughs* Yes.
Haley: And you’re excellent at both of them. And here on TBR Talks, you’re talking to a lot of folks as well. So, I want to start with asking you what conversation was the most memorable from this batch of conversations this season?
Patrick: Yeah, I think one that we did midway through, and it was memorable for a couple of reasons. It was two people. It was Batia and Chris from EY’s Mobility Practice. I met them in the spring in Barcelona and spent time with them there and really got to know what EY was doing around people advisory services even deeper than I did before I got to Barcelona and had such a connection with them that I said, come on the podcast, let’s have a chat.
What I didn’t sort of realize was how what they’re doing at EY, and it came out during the podcast, it’s so personal. Like we talk about technology so much, and even in services, which is a people business, we talk about technology nonstop. And sometimes we forget that it’s the people part of it that actually is the hardest part, but it’s also probably the most rewarding part. And so to me, I sort of went back, listened to that conversation again and realized like, okay, part of why I think they were such a great two people to have on and also why I connected with them when we met in person was just how much they bring the personal experience into what they’re doing. And it’s beyond just the technology, it’s actually the people that they’re focused on. And mobility in particular and sort of living overseas, being assigned overseas and immigration and all that, were issues that I, you know, go back 30 plus years for me professionally. So, to be talking about immigration issues and to be talking about being assigned overseas and stuff like that. I can’t even do the math from 1995, when I was first posted overseas, to come back to that in 2025, that math actually should be pretty easy. But anyway, it was really, really cool. It was memorable for that because it was a really personal kind of discussion and it went beyond just technology, which was great.
Haley: Yeah, that was a great conversation to listen through and it was really, really cool how they were able to articulate the humanity parts of their role and how the technology intersects with the humanity, and how the humanity intersects with the technology. And neither of those parts would exist without the other.
Patrick: Right. And I’m glad you said the word humanity, that’s a better way to put it than just people. But yeah, absolutely.
Surprising conversations about career paths and entry points
Haley: Yeah. Wonderful. So what conversation was the most surprising for you?
Patrick: One that jumps out and there’s a few that were surprising, definitely. There’s one in my mind that I definitely want to get to by the end, but really surprising was talking to Kelly See. from Ericsson. And what was surprising about it was how she came into her role where she is now as a librarian. And that was her actual background, which she studied library sciences. Sort of, I don’t want to say she found the job in the newspaper or something, but it almost sounded a bit like that. She just sort of came into Ericsson as a librarian and grew up inside of that, had her professional career develop inside of that company. And I don’t think about the companies that we cover needing library skills, and yet she’s done so much at being there.
And Elizabeth too, and so her colleague Elizabeth Roberts at Ericsson as well, we had a conversation with her. And what was surprising there was, here’s somebody I’ve known since I got to TBR in 2013. So, I’ve known her over a decade. And there were just things about her background and things about what she’s doing now and how much her role has changed that I didn’t anticipate when we- because I met with them in Texas, and we said, hey, come on the podcast, it’ll be fun. And I had no idea what Kelly’s background was. And I had no idea how much Elizabeth’s job had changed in the, just in the last couple of years, really. So that was surprising.
Haley: Yeah, it’s fascinating listening to all of the conversations that we have, both with folks inside TBR who come on the show and folks outside of TBR, hearing about their paths, hearing about the way that they got to the role that they’re at, hearing about the different roles they’ve had in their organizations and in the various organizations to bring them to the point in their careers where we get to talk with them here is fascinating. I’m a few years out of school and something that I was always ravenous for was how people progressed through their careers, what twists and turns people took. And so, whenever we would have the chance to have a guest speaker be able to really dig into somebody’s career path and how they got to where they are, that was something that I always really valued, having the chance to connect with folks on. So that’s been a really cool aspect of being here and being able to do this show.
Patrick: Yeah, and it’s great, because it’s sort of, in a way, it’s aspirational that you can say, okay, things- people can do things you don’t expect, and people can have careers you don’t expect. And for you, just a couple of years out of college, it’s a chance to say, okay, there’s a lot of opportunity there. You’re not locked into one thing. And for me, it’s just fascinating to hear the stories.
Haley: For sure. Especially when you know and you interact with somebody in a day-to-day way, in the ways that your two roles intersect, and you don’t really get to see a bird’s eye view of what the rest of their world looks like when they’re at work. That’s been really fascinating.
Patrick: It has been. It’s been a lot of fun.
Bringing new ideas and new ways of thinking to the table
Haley: My next question is, what conversation brought the most new ideas to the table for you?
Patrick: Yeah, I was going to sort of save this one for the end, but it’s perfect now. So, we spoke with David Martínez at BCG’s Henderson Institute. That episode alone was perhaps my favorite of the whole season. I’ll go ahead and say that. And for a lot of reasons, one, it was one of those things where they reached out to us and said, hey, we want to be on the podcast. So that was kind of cool. The second, we covered just an incredible range, a tour de horizon of everything happening in consulting and technology and AI. I mean, it was just, it was the broadest conversation imaginable, in part because the guy is literally a PhD in political philosophy. He’s a philosopher. Never had a conversation with a philosopher and talking about technology at the same time. But the thing that, because your question was, what was the sort of the most, not surprising, what was it?
Haley: The most new ideas to the table.
Patrick: The most new ideas. This is- so the challenge, one of the challenges in this job as an analyst is you do the research, you do the thinking. Once you present, once you bring forth whatever it is, whether it’s through the writing or speaking with somebody, an idea, if it resonates, it tends to stick. So, you tend to- you get- I fall into the same habit of sort of repeating or saying the same ideas again and again because it resonates. So, like, okay, this must be true because when I say it, people nod and say, oh yeah, that makes complete sense or I hadn’t thought about it before. So, for years now, we’ve had a saying within the firm, or at least within my practice, that the technology is never the problem, it’s always the people. So, technology always works. Technology just does whatever you tell it to do. The people are always the reasons why technology isn’t adopted, why change management is harder, why things go off the rails, why expectations are met. And so, in some ways, that’s just been a mantra for us. The technology isn’t the problem, the people are. And when I mentioned that to David, he just took the philosopher’s view of that and sort of turned it around on me to say, you know, the technology itself, you can’t really even look at that as the yes, no, the problem, not the problem. That’s looking at the wrong way. It’s the intent that people put into the technology. So, it’s not that people are inherently the problem. It’s the intent that they’re bringing to the technology that is or isn’t the problem. So, for years, I’ve been thinking about this as very binary and very sort of black and white. And he was basically saying, you’re missing the gray. You’re not even thinking about the right way to think about this problem. And the problem is real. The problem is, you know, people eventually have to use technology, and if they don’t use it right, then that’s what causes the problem, and he was saying it’s all about intent, and I hadn’t thought of it that way. It was just such a better, cleaner, smarter, deeper way to think about this framework that we use all the time, and so I think going forward, if I catch myself saying, we say around here that technology isn’t the problem. I’m going to stop myself and say, nope, I’ve been corrected by a philosopher. That is not the right way to think about it. So that was just, it was a fun conversation. It was an amazing conversation. He dropped some Latin phrases in, which has only happened once so far. So set the bar very high for 2026.
Haley: Yeah, some challenges for some other Latin phrases to get dropped on the pod there. Yeah, the intent is such an interesting way of looking at human interaction and technology because you have the intent in creating the technology, and you also have the intent in using the technology. So that kind of disseminates the gray area even further than we perhaps originally were kind of considering.
Patrick: Yeah. Absolutely.
Bringing in more generational views and company-centric views in 2026
Haley: My last question for you today, Patrick, is what kind of guests or what kind of conversations would you love to have on the podcast for a season five? What are you kind of hoping we get in the studio, we get coming through the door? What are you excited to potentially talk about next season?
Patrick: Yeah, two things. And I’ll reflect on the people we spoke to this season as a way of sort of framing it. One, we spoke with Eric Müller from Work & Co. And he’s a guy who’s about as old as I am, or I hate to say this, perhaps older. He had a generational view of technology, of change, of marketing, of creativity, that I think sometimes I forget to tap into. It’s really easy to talk to people who are at the very cutting edge, that are new in their profession, or they’re new into technology, and sort of forget that. Because we used to, you remember Ezra used to be here, and even Ramunas before him, and Geoff Woollacott, we had people at the firm. I think I’m actually the oldest person at the firm now, which is a little frightening, but it’s also a reminder, like, look, the generational stuff is kind of important. So, I think next year it would be good to go out and find some people that can give us the longitudinal view of some of the changes that have happened in technology because there’s so much hype, there’s so much that seems to be changing all the time. And in fact, maybe things aren’t changing quite the way we think they are. So that’s probably terrible marketing for TBR Talks because I’m saying I don’t want to talk about the hype and the new stuff, but I do, I just want to put it in the context of generational changes across technology.
Haley: Yeah, and I think we have the ability to kind of dive into some of the nuance in all of the hype and big scary headlines that may be coming out. We have the opportunity here to sit and kind of dissect it a little bit more.
Patrick: Right, and I think, I mean, I just think about the people that are in this firm with us, most of them have been here a minimum of five years, and in some cases, 10 years or more. And so, we do have people in the building that we can tap into to give that generational view of technology.
The other thing I’ll bring up is I was recently with some friends of ours and a guy who’s in technology, and he said, hey, I was looking on LinkedIn, I saw you have a podcast. And so, I listened to it, and he said he listened to the NVIDIA episode and the Lenovo episode, both of those with Ben and Angela. And here’s a guy who’s in tech himself, and wanted to just hear a little bit more about those two companies. And he’s like, absolutely loved it. It was the right length, like 20 minutes.
Haley: Yeah.
Patrick: Like not too long. But it was coming at those two companies in a way that isn’t constantly reported in the news. It was a perspective that he wasn’t getting from his other news and information feeds. And so I think that’s something I want to really try to do more of in 2026 and season five, is find a way to look at the companies we cover, look at the technology and the issues that we cover in a way that really is separate from what’s out there in the news. It’s not enough to just reflect on what are the earnings. It’s not enough to reflect on what are the sort of big trends that are happening, but really bring that truly different TBR perspective to the companies that we’re looking at. And it was really encouraging to have somebody who really hadn’t listened to any of the episodes before immediately say, hey, you know, especially the NVIDIA one, he’s like, learned so much more about that company, things I hadn’t been hearing in the news. I’m like, that’s perfect. That’s what we’re trying to do here.
Haley: Yeah.
Patrick: So, it was really cool. So hopefully more longitudinal view in 2026 and more perspectives on the companies and the issues that we cover that folks don’t get from just the daily rush of information.
Haley: Yeah, love to hear it. That’s a great goal for next season.
Final thoughts
And I know you love adding in a kind of bonus question.
Patrick: *laughs* I can’t help it.
Haley: To our guests
Patrick: And I knew this was coming. I just don’t know what the question is.
Haley: Well, so you’ve been asking most guests for season four a similar question, and I don’t think you answered it. So, I’m going to turn it back around on you. So, the question is, in the age of AI, there’s a lot of thought of AI potentially taking jobs away, taking tasks away and so if you had your 10,000 hours to get really good at something specific, what would it be? What would be the skill that you would love to master, kind of at the drop of a hat?
Patrick: Well, at the drop of a hat or over 10,000 hours.
Haley: *laughs* Take it or leave it, you know?
Patrick: From a very realistic, very personal perspective, I have a guitar from my father. I would love to actually learn how to play it.
Haley: Yeah.
Patrick: I played the bass guitar when I was in a band in high school. I played the drums through college. The whole rest of my family is very musical. I have that thing I need to learn how to play. I need to take the 10,000 hours and dedicate to that. But from a more work perspective, I do, the magical power I wish I could have is just to stop time long enough to think and to write down everything that I’m thinking. Because I find so many times, we say this in conversations and in calls with our clients, where we say, we can’t write down everything that we want to on paper. So, call us so we can talk. To some degree, what we’re saying there really is, if we had more time, we would have written this better, more concise, and more directly. And we would have been able to say what we’re really trying to say. And instead, we just, we put it out there and now we have to tell you what we really mean. I would love to just get better at saying what do we really mean.
Haley: Yeah.
Patrick: And saying it in a way so much different than this answer, which is concise and direct and people can understand right away and walk away with. So that would be my professional side. Personal side, 2026, I gotta learn how to play guitar. I got it. I gotta learn how to play it.
Haley: Love it. Can always add a little bit of music into your life.
Patrick: Yeah, well, I could record a- that should be the real goal is to record the intro and outro music for it.
Haley: That’d be really cool. Awesome. Thank you, Patrick.
Patrick: Thank you, Haley. This is a lot of fun. We’ll do it again at the end of season five.
Haley: This was great, see you then.
Patrick: Next week, I’ll be speaking with Chris Antlitz about his 2026 Telecom predictions.
Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.
Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.
TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms
Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.
“TBR Talks” is available on all major podcast platforms. Subscribe today!
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/tbr-talks-retrospective-what-we-learned-in-2025-cover-scaled.jpg25602560TBRhttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngTBR2025-12-20 09:52:002025-12-20 09:52:03‘TBR Talks’ Retrospective: What We Learned in 2025
TBR Digital Transformation Principal Analyst Boz Hristov joins host Patrick Heffernan in this episode to detail Infosys’ key points from Infosys Americas Confluence 2025. Boz shares his insights into Infosys’ strategy changes and why clients choose Infosys, and looks at whether Infosys has figured out the staffing model of the future.
Episode highlights:
• Strategy changes for a bolder Infosys
• Whether Infosys has figured out the staffing model of the futures
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy
From Labor Arbitrage to Tech-enabled Arbitrage: Infosys’ Enterprise AI Strategy
TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms, where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem, from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors.
I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about the Infosys Americas Confluence 2025 event with Boz Hristov, Principal Analyst for TBR’s Digital Transformation Practice.
Americas Confluence setup and structure
Boz Hristov, welcome back to TBR Talks. I feel like you’re the most frequent guest, because you’re one of the most prolific analysts here at TBR and one of the people that travels almost as much as I do. And that’s what we want to talk about today. You were at an Infosys event in California just a short time ago, and we haven’t had a chance to really sit down and talk about what you heard from them, what you learned from them, what your thinking is that’s different now about Infosys, and then maybe about how you can apply some of those new learnings to what we’re seeing across the whole IT services and consulting space. So, with that very broad set of sort of parameters, tell us some of what you learned at Infosys in California.
Bozhidar Hristov, TBR Principal Analyst: Well, thanks for having me. Always a pleasure to be here, sitting in the studio and chatting about what we learn in the market and sharing insights and perspectives. So yeah, I mean, the event that I attended was part of the Infosys Confluence series. So, they do host a series of those across the three major markets, Americas, Europe, and APAC. So, this one was here in the US, and it was hosted out in San Diego, specifically in the Coronado Island. So, it’s Confluence Americas, really, I would say it’s the biggest event for the US, largely by the fact that over 60% of their business comes from the US. So, you can imagine that a lot of their customers and partners that have a huge impact on their performance overall are present, a lot of prospects as well. So I mean, the venue aside, which was fantastic, the setup, the agenda was really well managed from having a partner day, having an analyst and advisor day, and having a lot of open plenary discussions, meaning a lot of just really thought provoking discussions across the three and a half days during the conference, and a lot of networking opportunities as well, both formal and informal.
Plus, a typical kind of a demo setup. So you think about the big technology events, a demo setup that flipped that back into more of the services side, and you have the partners, the likes of ServiceNow and HPE and AWS and many others that are on site and really talking about the capabilities that they work on, that they collaborate with Infosys, and obviously Infosys’ technology portfolio was on display as well, which was really, you know, intriguing just to think about, you know, you have on one side technology partners, and the other side you have Infosys’ offerings. You know, it’s you can say, well, maybe a coopetive setup, but I think it’s more of a complementary setup because of how each side sees each other, how each side communicates with each other, and it was very transparent and very clear that, you know, each of the partners, both technology and Infosys, knew their role well, speaking to across the demo sessions. Now, I mean, like I said, there’s a play of opportunities for collaboration and learning a lot of new things, and I think it was a great opportunity for Infosys’, both existing clients to share experiences, partners to share experiences, also executives to host those panels and really try to instill some good ideas and great aspirations, I would say, with prospective clients as well, because it was not just existing clients, but some prospective clients that were on site as well. So again, it’s an annual recurrence event that they host. They have one coming up in EMEA shortly, and they host one in APAC, as I said, in the beginning of the year. So that’s kind of like on the logistical part and a really high-level setup.
Strategy changes for a bolder Infosys
From an Infosys perspective, what’s different and how should you think about Infosys? I think, as you have heard me speaking about them before and I write about them extensively as part of our ongoing syndicated coverage and reports. They’re very humble from an organizational perspective, right, from a culture perspective. And I said that before, but their humbleness has allowed them to gain more trust within the ecosystem. But their humbleness this time around has not prevented them to show boldness at the same time. This time around was a little bit, I saw and I heard an Infosys which was bolder in terms of like innovation, challenging the clients and partners in a right, in a positive way, meaning that they can do more with them. And because historically, often services providers are viewed a little bit more like, we’ll do whatever the clients want. And they still do, they do a good job about that. But this time around, as they see the opportunity for them to pivot from being just a services provided to more of a solution broker, they’re trying to be a little bit more like challenging, innovative thinking. Obviously, AI was front and center of pretty much every discussion, but just the nuance of the temper and the focus of the discussions were really focused around we can do more and let us show you how we are different, meaning from a capabilities, skill perspective, client use stories. We are absorbing a lot of that on ourselves and bringing those stories to life.
Patrick: So what do you think changed that allowed them to become more bold and more willing to challenge their partners and their clients, more willing to say everything you just said about the sort of not just being the order takers, but actually being- and in the context for that question, for everybody else, not just the two of us, is one of the first conversations we had about Infosys 13 years ago was what would a successful Infosys strategy look like? So, we’re way beyond them changing their strategy from 13 years ago, but what happened in the last one to two years that allowed them to become bolder in the way you described?
Boz: Yeah. So, I think, as I mentioned, culture definitely has been really solid, I would say, and the internal trust that leadership has been able to gain with its employees, I mean, steady, I mean, everyone, just like everyone else in the service industries have experienced some ups and downs attrition, but they’ve been, kind of, able to maintain a steady attrition levels, lower attrition levels. And I think it’s also that has enabled them to deliver service quality. As I mentioned before, they- staying within their own swim lane and being that kind of like on the services supply side for many years have gained that trust and helped them do that. Investing really strategically in the right skill sets. We talked about how as companies pivot into not just selling services, but also thinking about the evolution of platform-enabled services and pivoting from labor arbitrage to tech-enabled labor arbitrage is, you know, it requires different skill sets, requires different career paths, and, you know, Infosys has certainly been very strategic on the forefront of developing the right careers for the traditional engineers that are still part of supporting the ongoing engagements, but also they’re kind of the power programmers and we just even heard this last earnings call, them talking about the forward deployed engineers as a way to kind of try to-
Patrick: Right.
Boz: You know, almost, I mean, we know that Palantir introduced that kind of a term, in the last 18 to 24 months, but it seems like Infosys is kind of pushing the envelope with using and then really developing the skills that actually can breach into that kind of a new era of professional services that they do it, really, so that’s kind of on the investment front.
The other side is also on the expense side, because they’ve been really managing a very well-run financially sound expense, you know, P&L, very tight expense management. And that has allowed them to place those bets and those investments and, you know, some of their sales strategies and how they’ve actually been bringing in and working with partners. And one thing that kind of came a little bit more even as they were going through the conference and having this conversation is the role of Infosys Consulting, which we know that everyone has tried historically to build a consulting brand and everyone’s just trying to use that. And Infosys Consulting is actually a sizable business for them. And, you know, while, maybe three, four years ago, Infosys was maybe leaning a little bit more on partnering with the likes of EY to be more in that kind of a consulting plus services delivery, it appears that Infosys Consulting has gained momentum already on its own to a degree where it’s actually being part of the kind of like the- leading for some of the opportunities that Infosys is doing. Now don’t get me wrong, Infosys is not doing strategy consulting the way McKinsey does, but consulting around the transformation, discussions around SAP S4 migration or anything that’s related to data analytics, you know, any industry-specific discussions as well. So you’re kind of having two-in-a-box, even three-in-a-box models sometimes between Infosys consultants, industry specialization, or maybe a horizontal lead, even now with that case now with forward-deployed engineers, it’s really bringing a lot more value to the clients that they’re trying to be well organized around.
Has Infosys figured out the staffing model of the future?
Patrick: So, I want to come back to a number of things you just said, but I want to go a little closer to 10,000 feet here since you do write our global delivery benchmark, you do look at some of the other scaled IT services companies. And when you talked about relatively low attrition, investing in people and forward deployed engineers, it makes me think, everything is changing within the staffing model for all of these companies. Is your sense Infosys is on the right path to figuring out what the new staffing model is going to look like? And sort of the part of the way that you’re measuring that or you’re evaluating that is that they do have relatively low attrition, that they are investing in the right people, that they have developed or they have adopted this forward deployed engineer model?
Boz: They do have the ingredients; I would say, obviously, it’s a marathon. It’s not a sprint, I would say. Just thinking about the pace of- although all the AI investments that may feel like it’s a very rapid, you know, 100-meter dash, you know, kind of like a Usain Bolt kind of a sprint. I think we’re looking at a little bit more of a marathon style evolution. And why I’m saying that is that if you look at the revenue per employee for the last two years, it has been really on an upward measure, right? So, as we look at services and evolving from that labor arbitrage to tech-enabled arbitrage, is revenue per employee a KPI that really shows that change and departing from a traditional linear to non-linear growth model and Infosys has achieved that. It went from about $49,000/$50,000 revenue per employee to over $60,000 revenue per employee, which is a substantial jump over the last two years. And you can argue that it’s a combination of Infosys’ successful strategy execution, slower growth in headcount, but, you know, so momentum in their revenue performance. So it’s a mix of did they really crack the code on the non-linear revenue growth model or did they just get, you know, did they time it the right way, meaning they slowed the hiring as the market was slowing from a revenue perspective, but they had enough momentum prior to that, and that helped them to expand that revenue per employee? So, I think it’s a combination of all the above. But what these two years have given Infosys is that experience and the knowledge how to manage it better at scale.
Now, obviously, as I said, it’s a marathon, and it’s just like Infosys and many of its peers, they would not say no to large transformation deals. They just signed a deal with NHS out of the UK, $1.6 billion. So, no matter how much AI and automation there is maybe deployed in this part of that deal, there’s still a need for people. And we saw them have an uptick in headcount growth in this past quarter, which it’s an indication to monitor, see if because of such large use, how they make that pivot, would they continue to keep the revenue per employer that $60,000 mark more or less, or it’s going to start trending down because it keeps start adding people again? I think they want the former, they don’t want the latter. And we also need to keep an eye on how much is their margin evolving, how is their margin evolving as well. So certainly markers that we kind of like, you know, are keeping an eye on for, but as I said, they have the right ingredients, they have the right experience. And I think, you know, we’d probably see in the next five years a more sustained performance when it comes to revenue per employee, more sustained non-linearity from the likes of Infosys and we know what others are trying, but I think Infosys probably has a little bit more of that edge at the moment, just given that their size is not as large as maybe their closest competitors from a people perspective, yet their pipeline is pretty robust overall, and the trust they have in the ecosystem is pretty strong.
Patrick: Yeah, I think for the next few years, one thing that- so I’ve always thought revenue per employee is one of the most important ways of looking at an IT services company or a consultancy.
Boz: Yeah.
Patrick: And I think for the next few years, we’re going to need to look at the consistency and the trajectory of those for all the companies we look at. And then we’re eventually going to have to start considering revenue per-
Boz: Digital worker.
Patrick: Digital worker, right. That’s going to complicate things, but I think it’ll be fascinating.
Boz: Yeah.
Why clients choose Infosys
Patrick: I want to put a pin in marathon as well and come back to that in a second. But I want to combine two things you’ve talked about. One was Infosys Consulting, and I fully understand they’re not doing, you know, McKinsey, BCG-like strategy consulting. Got it. Another thing is, you mentioned that there were clients at this event. So, one way that, because we’ve seen IT services companies try to get into consulting, it almost never works. But understand why they do it and the business logic behind it. And we also understand what all the hurdles are and why they can’t overcome them. But one way we would be able to measure how well a company, an IT services centric company, has been able to develop its consulting capabilities is when clients themselves say, we, in this case, it would be, we started with Infosys Consulting and they helped us and then we developed. So when clients talked about why Infosys, I’m guessing Infosys Consulting did not come up, or maybe it did, but when they did talk about why Infosys, what did clients say was the why behind choosing Infosys as the company they wanted to work with, other than the fact that they were in beautiful San Diego?
Boz: That definitely helps. But I think the motto is not just Infosys Consulting in a vacuum. Infosys Consulting is attached with the delivery. Infosys Consulting is attached with, kind of like the two in a box, three in a box model, as I mentioned. That helps them to be a little bit more looking through multiple angles and be a little bit more strategic about it.
Why Infosys? I think, as we all know, clients are price sensitive. So having the right mix of onshore and offshore effort and the right scale of that effort to be supported by enables Infosys to drive, you know, to have a good conversation starter. But I think it’s also, because you can argue the same thing with some of its direct competitors have a similar scale and whatnot, but I think it’s the fact that how they’re trying to make the discussion around the risk sharing part of it, and trying to be a little bit more like proactive around taking, absorbing some of the initial cost on their own and trying to be a little bit more proactive from that perspective. And service quality, client use cases, client references, this is huge. Partners, I mean, as I mentioned, there were a lot of partners on site, they had partner day as well as part of the conference. And partners still do see a lot of value of working with Infosys because that consistency I go back to, I think it’s consistent teams that when you have on a staff from a staffing perspective, I think helps a lot. And I guess that goes back to the culture, leadership, and soon and so forth. And again, Infosys has not been immune to not having leadership departing. I mean, don’t get me wrong, everyone is experiencing that. But I think it’s really about consistent execution, proactive risk sharing discussions and showing actually they do it, and at the same time, investing for innovation and trying to be a little bit more like, let us show you we can do more something together, and we can demonstrate that for you and be a little bit more from that.
Because I mean, to a degree, you know, this is kind of the model that professional services companies do. But I think for someone like Infosys is, again, that humbleness, again, falling back on that word over and over, but that helped them to pave a way, essentially, for continuation of the relationship and that stickiness. Because while Infosys was doing that, many of its peers were testing different methods and different strategies. And I think that kind of puts their opportunities a little bit more behind, and Infosys is not taking advantage of its position, essentially. It could be a double-edged sword, because if you push too much and you’re not in your own swim lane, clients can recognize that very quickly. And the good thing about Infosys is that they tried to do things that are not in their own swim lane 5+ years ago, and I think they have learned those lessons the hard way, and now they’re very careful how they manage that moving forward.
Patrick: Right, and if they can continue to balance that consistent execution, a willingness to be flexible around risk-taking, and then bringing actual innovation, I think that’s- if you can actually manage those three things and deliver all three of those things, I mean, that definitely will set them apart.
Stand out partnerships
Two more questions. First, maybe the easy one. Were there certain partners that stood out, certain technology partners they had there that sort of stood out in terms of your understanding of their relationship with Infosys and how that might be a little bit different?
Boz: Yeah, I think so. I think from kind of the entire spectrum, so HPE was definitely, you know, HPE is a partner that it’s a very strong relationship with Infosys. And it’s interesting to think about everyone, and they push so much with Infosys Cobalt in the cloud, but HPE presents an opportunity to bridge those on-prem and kind of like, hybrid cloud environment with GreenLake so, there’s a lot of discussions around that. AWS; very strong relationship as well. ServiceNow, SAP, I would say the SAP relationship has evolved over the last year. They are one of the few partners that they got the validated partner for RISE with SAP. And we’re in the middle of actually producing our SAP and Oracle and Workday Ecosystem Report, where we’re having that discussion as part of it. So, they are one of the few, and that kind of provides that testimonial of ongoing relationship and trust. Some good use cases were shared around the SAP relationship during the conference as well. And that’s just kind of like just a few that kind of come to mind, that were on-site and we heard of as well.
Patrick: It’s good. And one thing we should probably come back to is to have a chat about that SAP Oracle Workday Ecosystem Report.
Boz: Yeah.
Infosys’s sports alliances
Patrick: So, last question, which you know is not the last question, because I’ll always ask you one more, but you mentioned Marathon. So, it seems like every … IT services company and even every tech company now has some marquee sports related alliance relationship with a client. Lenovo with F1, PwC with F1. It seems like countless examples. So, what’s Infosys’s game in the sports world?
Boz: Tennis.
Patrick: Tennis?
Boz: Tennis, yes. Tennis is their big thing. They do have a very strong relationship with ATP. I mean, you can see they’re sponsoring a lot of the stats with Australian Open and the Roland Garros. They do have Iga Świątek, you know, the Polish, you know, national who is the number one for women. She’s one of the ambassadors. Rafa Nadal, he’s the ambassador for Infosys brand as well. They actually had Martina Navratilova speaking at the event in San Diego. So, tennis is their, I would say, top sport. I mean, they do have partnerships with MSG in New York as well, so the Knicks, the Rangers, all the sports that are playing in MSG so- but tennis is probably the number one.
Patrick: So next year, is it going to be the event will be at Roland Garros, will it be at Wimbledon, will it be at-
Boz: Well, I know they do host the APAC one in conjunction with the Australian Open.
Patrick: Oh, nice.
Boz: So, for the APAC Confluence, yeah.
Patrick: Okay. Alright, we’ll get your tennis knowledge up to speed.
Boz: I’m all for it. I’m all for tennis. I’m a big tennis fan, so yes.
Final thoughts
Patrick: Now the last question, and I know because I was on a trip at the same time you were with Infosys. I was in New York City having probably the best sushi I’ve ever had in my life. So, what was the best thing that you ate on your trip to California?
Boz: That’s a great question. Like I said in the beginning, the venue was fantastic. The organization was phenomenal. I mean, just the food choices were probably one of the better food choices I’ve had at those events. You know, just I felt like it was thought through every single possible dietary restriction and choice and whatnot. I got some goat curry.
Patrick: It was good.
Boz: I liked it.
Patrick: Okay.
Boz: Yes. I mean, I like Indian food, so yeah, it was definitely something different to try. Yeah. So, it was very tasty.
Patrick: Okay, wow.
Boz: And it wasn’t the only good food. That just comes to mind. That was something, you know, that you don’t get goat curry every single conference, you know?
Patrick: I had squirrel fish at a conference I went to.
Boz: There you go.
Patrick: So yeah, you don’t get the same thing every time, which is nice, which is really nice. Boz, thank you so much. We will do this again soon to talk about some of the ecosystem reports.
Boz: Thank you.
Patrick: Thanks.
Next week, I’ll be speaking with Angela Lambert and Ben Carbonneau about NVIDIA GTC. Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.
Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us, and see you next week.
TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms
Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.
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https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/from-labor-arbitrage-to-tech-enabled-arbitrage-infosys-ai-strategy-cover-needs-title-update-scaled.jpg25602560TBRhttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngTBR2025-12-12 10:04:342025-12-12 10:04:34From Labor Arbitrage to Tech-enabled Arbitrage: Infosys’ Enterprise AI Strategy
In this episode, Batia Stein, managing partner at EY Law and partner at EY People Advisory Services, and Chris Gordon, Canada region leader at EY People Advisory Services Tax, join “TBR Talks” host Patrick Heffernan for a discussion on EY’s AI strategy for its People Advisory Services practice. Stein and Gordon detail EY’s approach to automation in the tax and audit divisions within EY, and the trio also shares their thoughts on immigration, cybersecurity, data privacy and data sovereignty, as well as tax, HR and what the future may hold.
Episode highlights:
• The next trends in people advisory services
• Navigating uncertainty, AI developments and human behavior changes
• Data access challenges and changes
• How EY PAS and Tax are using AI and what gets applied to EY broadly
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy
EY’s AI Strategy for People Advisory Services: Managing Partners and Regional Leaders at EY Share AI Insights
TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors.
I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about people advisory services with Batia Stein, Managing Partner at EY Law and a Partner within EY’s People Advisory Services practice, and Chris Gordon, Canada Region Leader at EY People Advisory Services Tax.
Meet Batia and Chris from EY People Advisory Services
Chris and Batia, thank you so much for joining the podcast, really appreciate this. We’re in season four now, which is crazy to me. And we’ve had just such a wide range of guests this season in particular. So, it’s been an enormous amount of fun. But from what I can recall, this is the first time we’ve had anybody from People Advisory Services, from Tax on this program at all over four seasons. So, this is really, it’s exciting. This is something new, something different for us. And so, I would love if you could just introduce yourselves and give us a little bit of background and sort of explain where you’re coming from. I know we met in Barcelona, we had a great time there. Got to chat quite a bit. But if you could just let our folks know who you are and what you’re doing at EY, that’d be great.
Batia Stein, Managing Partner at EY Law and Partner at EY People Advisory Services: Great. I’ll jump right in. Well, first of all, thanks, Patrick, for having us. And it’s great to know that we are the first from PAS, from People Advisory Services Practice. So, my name is Batia Stein, and I lead EY Canada’s immigration practice. We provide Canadian, US, and global immigration services to our clients through EY’s global immigration network, which is in about 140 countries today. I am a Canadian lawyer. I’m a US attorney by profession, and I’ve been with EY for quarter of a century or so now, just over 25 years. And through that time, I’ve helped build our immigration practice very proudly. And that includes everything from service delivery model, how we work with clients, and the technology suite, which I know that you have some interest in, so we’ll talk a little bit about that in a minute. And primarily what I do is I work with my clients to provide strategic advice and thought leadership, creativity to help them navigate the uncertainty. And frankly, we find ourselves in one of the most uncertain times geopolitically. And so that’s really what I help clients with. Chris?
Patrick: Excellent.
Christopher Gordon, Canada Region Leader at EY People Advisory Services Tax: Yeah, so again, thanks, Patrick, for having us on. This is fantastic. The first nod for EY PAS. So really, really privileged to be on this podcast and sharing with you and your listeners. My name is, as you said, Chris Gordon. I am a partner here in Toronto, Canada. I’ve been with the firm, gosh, 22 years now. I’ve been in mobility for 25 years. In a prior life, I was with another firm. I think you and I, Patrick, share that firm in our history.
Patrick: *laughs* Not to be named, okay.
Chris: I started my career as a tax associate doing sort of US-UK cross-border tax for expats. Then I moved into broader assignment service, strategy, program design, development, helping clients manage their outsourced function for mobility. Then I moved about 17, 18 years ago into immigration, building, helping to build, working with Batia and others from London, starting from London, England, to build our global immigration business around the world. At the time, we were probably in about 30 countries. Now we’re in about 140+ countries around the world. So that was where I started my career. And then most recently, I’ve stepped into the role as the national and super region leader for Canada, for People Advisory Services. So, it’s kind of a full circle moment where I’ve gone in through all the areas of then human capital and what we call now people advisory service. And now I have the privilege of working with our team here in Canada and our leaders across the globe to set strategy for our business.
The next trends in people advisory services: Communication, connectivity and insight
Patrick: Excellent, excellent. And thank you guys for coming on. And Batia, I want to maybe ask a question because you’ve worked in immigration so long. You mentioned this is a tumultuous time in terms of what’s happening globally. But I’m curious to take maybe a bit of a giant step back. And when we think about the whole role of human resource management, people advisory services and all that, the last five years now have been tumultuous. You know, we had the pandemic, we had the quiet quitting, we had a lot of staff reductions across the technology space, which spilled into professional services. And I have to say one thing I was struck when we met in Barcelona was how closely knit a community the people were that were there. It seemed like they were all sort of relying on each other to get through. So, when you think about what some of those big trends have been over the last few years, are there things that are happening now that you think are sort of beyond just the geopolitics that are sort of building up the next few trends across immigration, across broader people advisory services?
Batia: Sure, absolutely. The one that sort of pops to mind, Patrick, immediately is really, I would call it generally speaking, communication and connectivity and insight. And all of that is really supported through technology. You know, our clients, our corporate clients really want to understand their employee populations, you know, firstly, so that they can keep up with the change. You know, if there’s a, you know, unfortunately, if there’s some kind of geopolitical incident or there’s some kind of legal change that requires them to know where their people are, what their status is, who’s impacted, they need that data and that information instantly. You know, that can happen on a weekend and they need to know it that day, right? We just had a weekend like that not too long ago. And we also want to enhance employee experience. There’s a real lens on making sure that- you know, immigration has become quite challenging for individuals. It creates a lot of uncertainty. It is something that can create anxiety. And so, employers really want to make sure that their employees have that high touch and level of insight into where they are in their process. When will their kids be able to start school? When will they be able to settle? All of those kinds of questions. And so that’s really driven by understanding the data, using technology to do that, and to create an elevated experience for both the employer and the employee. So, I think that’s the first trend and probably a primary trend that I would highlight.
Patrick: That’s fascinating. I think of the Big Four firms as having a cybersecurity team that has to react on the weekend when something goes really wrong, but it never occurred to me to think, oh, right, and the immigration folks, the people advisory folks as well.
Batia: Oh yeah. Just a few weekends ago. No jokes at all, but that happens to us quite often. Just a couple of weekends ago when the presidential proclamation was announced that around H-1Bs and the changes to the H-1B program, there was a lot of uncertainty on day one as to who that would impact and how it would impact people. Could people, for example, who were in H-1B status outside the country be allowed to come back in?
Patrick: Right.
Batia: And so, we spent the weekend analyzing the proclamation, advising our clients, re-advising when clarification came, and helping people to manage their employee populations of hundreds and sometimes thousands of people.
Patrick: Right, and that gets, I mean, there’s probably nothing more about the employee experience, especially in immigration, than your visa and what’s your visa status and what’s your residency status.
Batia: Absolutely.
Patrick: I’m curious too, because you mentioned employee experience. It’s one of those areas that at the beginning of the pandemic, and I know that goes back five years, but there was such an intense focus on, are our people safe? Are our people healthy? Are they happy? Do they have what they need? And then I feel like we went through a period where employee experience maybe got pushed aside. You know, we didn’t- we stopped thinking about employee experience broadly, but for you guys, it’s something that’s sort of every day. And so, I’m curious, how have you seen employee experience sort of rise up and down, if it does, at your clients in terms of, you know, is it a boardroom issue? Is it a C-suite issue? Is it something that’s just sort of pushed down lower in the organization? Or does it rise to the top again and again?
Chris: Yeah, I think if you- if we think about the pandemic, as you mentioned, as almost like a milestone, right? There’s been a change in expectation around what the employer and the obligation of the employer for the employee. And so, what we’ve seen with many companies is a heightened, especially within the HR organization. So, whether at the board room, they’re not necessarily talking about it in the same way, but certainly within the HR organization, employee experience is one of their top priorities. We are seeing definitely a shift in how organizations are functioning around that, whether that’s how they design their mobility program, how they design their HR program, the way that they communicate with their employees, the touch that they want to put on their employees in terms of both, as Batia mentioned, communication, but also this idea of surveying and making sure that everything that’s happening with the employee to their expectation.
If we think about the shift in expectation and the immediacy in data expectations, right? People want to be able to put their finger on a button and find out their status. And so that all is part of the employee experience. As soon as an employee goes into the HR system, there is an expectation that this firm now has me, not just from a delivering my comp and my salary perspective and delivering the right opportunities, but keeping me aware of everything and anything that may affect me, that may affect my employment, that may affect the organization and the company, and even into the social space, right?
Patrick: Right.
Chris: I want our company and our organization to support the things that I support, the causes that I support. So, it’s a much bigger issue that HR is grappling with and functioning and dealing with. A lot of organizations, like I said are restructuring how they deliver messaging. A lot of self-service tools are being implemented within organizations so that employees can actually have their finger on the pulse of what’s going on within the organization or within their mobility program or whatever it is that they’re interested in. So, there is definitely a shift that we’re seeing. Yeah, as I said, employee experience is something that we’re hearing a lot more around and certainly something that we’re helping clients address.
Patrick: You mentioned-
Batia: I’ll just add, Chris-
Patrick: Sorry, go ahead.
Batia: Sorry, Patrick. I was just going to add that, you know, immigration is a deeply personal experience. And so, it really does impact the C-suite. It does impact board members. You know, we are regularly helping C-suite cross borders and board members. And so, there’s nothing that grabs the attention more quickly than somebody quite senior, you know, having a challenging time at the border or being stopped. And so definitely it permeates the entire organization.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: Yeah. And when you think about mobility as a connected service, tax, you want to make sure your taxes are right. You’re filing the right taxes. You’re not paying more than you need to pay. Your immigration’s correct. Your payroll’s being delivered. All of those things now are converging and integrating, and the employee is looking at all of those as a single stream of support. They’re not thinking about whether you may have a different vendor for each or the same vendor for each. They want the same experience regardless.
Patrick: Right. And I mean, tax and immigration, those are so deeply personal. I mean, that’s a really, it’s an important point to think about, like how your employees are going to feel that more than they’re going to feel their technology.
Adopting new technology solutions at EY People Advisory Services
But let’s talk about technology for a second, because I know you guys are building some of those solutions you talked about, some of the platforms working with Microsoft and probably others. Have you seen, I guess the big question for me is the technology- in our world, the technology always works. It’s the people that mess things up. It’s the humans that screw up the technology, not the other way around. But when it comes to some of the tools that you’re developing for your clients and tools that you’re using internally within EY, are you seeing the adoption maybe happening a little faster now? Are you seeing people, and is that part of just a better designed tool, a better designed, I know one of the ones is built right into Teams. Or is it more a function of people have just gotten better and more adept at adopting technologies quicker? And just your broad experience in that regard. Chris, maybe if you want to go first on that?
Chris: Yeah, I think about our technology journey. Right, when I started, God 20 something years ago, it was an e-mail and no one expected a response to that e-mail for five days or a week or whatever, right? As expectation shifted and became more immediate, then the need for technology to really address that became critical. And if I think about then, sort of, you know, societally, there is this, everybody’s on an app, right? Like, apps have become the way forward, so the user experience, the expectation of easy, frictionless access to data, to information, is something that people are taking from their experience in life and bringing that to their experience in the work environment, in the services that their employer provides to them, and mobility being one of them. And so, as we’re seeing sort of technology really advancing super quickly, right? A system that we developed five years ago is now today an obsolete system. And so, we’re constantly evolving.
And so through our relationship and our alliance with Microsoft, we have developed an EYMP, which is EY Mobility Pathway, which is a dynamic system that tracks, reports, allows clients through dashboarding to have their finger on the pulse. Both clients at the administrative mobility function level and also the employee, to have their finger on the pulse of their tax services, their immigration services, you know, if they’re business travelers, there’s business travel elements to that. It really is this idea of data being democratized. People being able to have access to the data anytime they want 24/7 and being able to play back and forth with that data to provide information, to pull information in a very secure way. I think you mentioned, you mentioned risk, right? Threat, cybersecurity.
Patrick: Yeah.
Chris: So, ensuring that data is transited no more through e-mail, but through systems that are secure and immediate, real time. And it is a challenge as you said, you know, humans are still part of the process. However, with AI and generative AI, there is much more ability to reduce error, to mitigate that human error element to it, where now AI is implemented in systems. But again, there is still a tension there, right? Some organizations don’t want that implemented, there’s still a fear there. So, we have to tread carefully with that, move the industry along, whilst also respecting that there are also- that there’s expertise that still delivers support to our clients. But definitely, the technology journey is apace, and it is a race. Let’s be clear about that. It is a race to really- I don’t think there is an endpoint to this race. I think it’s going to constantly keep building as we move forward. I don’t know, Batia, if you have any other thoughts.
Batia: I was just going to say, I think that coming back to your question, Patrick, I think that data privacy, data integrity is what’s driving adoption and employee experience. Right. So, I think employees want the experience. They want to make sure that their information is secure as do our clients, our employers. And so, I think that is really something that’s driving adoption. And I’ll just say on a personal note that being part of EY, you know, you told us that you used to be part of a advisory practice as well, a consulting practice. We’re in a wonderful position. It really, it makes me- I get excited by the idea that we are an immigration practice embedded in this broader, much larger organization with advisory, with this alliance with Microsoft, with, quite frankly, with the ability to develop technology at a pace to really lead the race, using Chris’s words. That’s the piece that excites me, because this is really something that is going to sustain the future of our practice. And so being in a position where we are really surrounded, I think, with the right environment for the development is super exciting for me.
Patrick: Yeah, and I think the multidisciplinary model works so well for you and for the others in the Big Four, just because you bring so much to the table and every client might do one piece of their business really well, but they are- they do have needs across, you know, every enterprise client has needs across all of the things that EY brings to the table.
Data access challenges and changes
I want to aska very specific question that you may not want to answer, but I’ll have to ask it anyway. And it’s about data, because we hear about data all the time, and we hear about how that’s the piece that is preventing faster adoption of agentic AI or generative AI. It’s the piece that’s always most difficult. Everybody tells us that enterprise clients just don’t have their data in shape. They can’t accelerate. They can’t move from pilots to scale, blah, blah, blah. What we’ve heard recently that I think is fascinating is this idea that even with clients that you’ve been working with for a decade, getting sustained useful data from the clients is still a challenge. And I’m curious, we’re hearing different things about where, you know, EY fits on that spectrum of the ability to work very closely with their clients and access their data. And Chris, I know you’re laughing ’cause you’re like, you can’t believe I’m asking this question. But I’m just curious, in your more than two decades of experience, data has always been part of the equation for you. How has that changed maybe in recent years where that ability to get sustained access to the data that you need out of your clients has improved or has maybe been a roadblock.
Chris: Yeah, no, that’s a- you know how to ask those questions.
All: *laughs*
Batia: I’m glad it’s yours.
Chris: If you think about sort of the journey that we’ve been on over the last decade, let’s call it, There was this desire to protect data in a way that denied access. Right.
Patrick: Right.
Chris: So, there were lots of layers of access controls and systems in place to limit the amount of information that was available to a provider like EY or even to HR within the organization. They don’t have access to all the individual’s data and information. With the demand for more information now coming from the employee in the organization, those systems of how they constructed and architected their data security have to now shift as well. And so, we’ve got this tension between the demand for information and demand for immediacy of information that then can drive strategic decisions with an institution of data management and data control within the tech and security organization that now needs to be reconciled. And so that’s probably part of what you’re seeing, right?
The consistent access to data, some of those controls need to be reassessed and reviewed. There has to be trust in the system. And so, as we think about the best cases where we have that access to data and those two-way data flows with our clients, those are the clients where there is a trust system that’s set up. And that means the client organization reviews all of our systems, checks out and is comfortable that they can now have a secure flow back and forth. And so those barriers, let’s call them those controls, those gates, to a degree are then lessened or removed so that we do have that consistent access and flow of data. Now, that does require trust. It also requires a different way of contracting. I can tell you, for example, if we think about the construct of contracts that were made probably 5-10 years ago even, right? Let’s say 10 years ago. And even 5 years ago, those contracts were, “you cannot use our data for any other purpose other than,” right?
Patrick: Right.
Chris: And so, if you now want that data for insights and you as an organization want EY to now do benchmarking for you, for example, right? Your contract doesn’t allow us to do that. So again, there has to be a full reconciliation of the data systems and the data control that the organization has as their policy, and then a reconciliation of what their demand is in terms of data consumption. That’s kind of my answer to the question. I’m not sure it’s answered your question fully, but that’s where I do see the change.
Patrick: No, it’s super helpful. And I think the way you laid that out in particular to talk about trust is a perfect segue into the next thing we want to talk about, which is AI.
Batia’s law background and EY’s Law Firm
So, let’s talk about, well, I want to talk about AI, but actually before we get to that, Batia, you said something at the very beginning that you’re an attorney. And I just have to ask how many other attorneys are there within EY? Is it a firm full of lawyers that we didn’t know about? Like, is it the secret, you know, subculture of lawyers at EY?
Batia: *laughs* That’s a good question. So, within our EY Law firm, our practice in Canada provides those three areas of law, as I said. So, it’s Canadian, US, and global outbound. We have around 300 people onshore in Canada. We’re also supported by our Global Delivery Services Center in India, by another 300 or so. So, it’s a large practice. And then of those 300 or so in Canada, we have just over 100, 120-140 lawyers and attorneys, mostly US attorneys.
Patrick: Okay, yeah.
Batia: So, it is a- I don’t know how you would classify it. Is it a subculture? I’m not sure. But yes, we have a very strong law firm practice.
Patrick: Excellent. And then so I’m just really curious on this one particular point, like how did you end- you didn’t go to law school to work for EY, so how did you end up?
Batia: *laughs*
Patrick: Right?
Batia: I did not. So surprisingly, I’ll share my story, but surprisingly, it’s not that unusual. We have a few people with similar profiles. So I went- I actually did my undergraduate degree in cultural anthropology.
Patrick: Okay.
Batia: And decided that I needed to do something that was practical. So decided to go to law school in my third year of my anthropology degree. And went to law school so that I could work with refugees, so that I could help asylum seekers and refugees. And after graduation, I articled, interned at a boutique large immigration law firm in Canada, and then opened my own immigration practice for about two years where I did just that. I worked with refugees, worked with humanitarian cases. And at the time, EY was starting an immigration practice, piqued my interest. I saw that immigration in particular was- in Canada was following the path of U.S. immigration into the corporate world. And so, I approached the folks and joined the firm.
Patrick: That’s fascinating.
Batia: And now I do exclusively corporate law.
Patrick: It’s absolutely fascinating. And I have to say, earlier this season, we spoke with a guy who is with BCG who got his PhD in philosophy.
Batia: There you go.
Patrick: And I thought, okay, well, that’s the first time we’ve ever had a philosopher. You actually might be the first attorney that we’ve had on the podcast. So, we’re checking off a lot of boxes today. It’s great.
Batia: *laughs*
How EY PAS and Tax are using AI and what gets applied to EY broadly
Patrick: I do want to ask about AI, because it’s something that we talked about in Barcelona. It comes up relentlessly now. And it occurred to me when you were talking about immigration earlier, in my distant, distant past, I actually stamped visas at the embassy in Cairo, US Embassy in Cairo.
Batia: Oh wow.
Patrick: Yeah, I did immigration visas, I did visitor visas, all that kind of stuff. And I just think about the application-
Chris: Very cool.
Patrick: Well, yeah, it was, yeah, we could have a beer and talk about how cool that job was.
Batia and Chris: *laughs*
Patrick: But anyway, I think now about if somebody could have filled out that form using AI, you know, how different that would have been. And the same for your own services that you’re providing to enterprise clients when it comes to literally filling out applications or forms and stuff like that. How much is the firm starting to use AI to do some of that work? And do you ever see it sort of being a huge part of the work that you’re doing?
Batia: Yeah, yeah. It’s an excellent question, and I think we’re on the journey, right? So, we definitely are using AI in cool ways and are looking at using it in even more ways and better ways. And part of the driver really is that things have become so much more complex. The only thing that is certain in the world right now for us in immigration is uncertainty. And so, we need to make sure that our best minds, greatest thinkers are focused on that, focused on client service, focused on strategy, focused on understanding the changes. And as you said, the filling out of the forms and the analyzing of the data, of which we have a lot, right? I mean, there’s a lot of data that we hold. So, analyzing that data that we hold, analyzing the data that is publicly available to enhance our decision making and our clients’ decision making around strategy is what we need to be doing. And so, we are using some tools to do that already. So, we do have some technology, as you know, in play that we are able to automate some of that process for sure, and looking to automate even more of it using AI.
Patrick: And how much do you share what you’re doing within immigration and then more broadly within People Advisory Services with the rest of the firm? I mean, how much are you getting from the rest of the firm? How much are you sharing back? And by how much, I’m really thinking like more around the innovative side, like this is a way of thinking about the data that we have. And because your firm as a whole, of course, has a massive amount of data on all your clients. But how you manage that, how you orchestrate that, what you can and can’t use, all of those things, you’re going through it individually in your practice, how much does that get shared? How easily does that get shared across the firm?
Batia: Yeah, so that’s a great question. We are, at the end of the day, in Canada, at least a law firm. And we are an immigration practice. And so, we are very careful with how much we share from a privacy perspective, from a regulatory perspective, we wouldn’t share without clients explicit consent to do that. Having said that, I like the way you phrased the question because it’s not just about the data we hold, but it’s about the way we are developing and using technology. And so, from a technology perspective and how we use technology, that for sure is, you know, we are working in this much bigger and broader environment. We are learning from our, as I said earlier, from our consulting practice, from our technology folks, and they are learning from us in terms of how we are building and what we need to do. But from a data perspective, to be very clear, that is held privately and confidentially for sure for our clients.
Patrick: Right, and then Chris, on the Tax side and the People Advisory broadly, how are you guys using AI these days? And maybe also, what do you see coming next? Like what’s the next evolution? We’ve gone from AI to GenAI to agentic AI. What’s next?
Chris: Yeah, no, if I think about sort of a tax return, for example, providing a tax return used to be, you know, a client would have to fill in, you know, an employee would have to fill in all their information on what we call an organizer, right? Now we have information in systems. The client has information in their systems. There are systems that are on apps, maybe in an employee’s phone that when they travel, if they switch that app on, their calendar gets updated for where they are in the world. That then gets pulled into this form. So now when they have the organizer format that appears in front of them saying, fill out your organizer, actually, it’s playing back information that’s already in the system. Now they just need to verify. We’re using technology, AI, APIs, connecting systems in ways that are accelerating the process of preparing tax returns, also delivering, again, on that employee experience, right? I have this data, I’ve given you this data before, how come, you know, it’s in my calendar, why is it not in my form, right? And so, we’re able to now do that.
In terms of sort of the next level, the next stage of experience, it really is going to be around, and we’re looking and playing with and piloting certain agentic pieces of that, where actually systems are now going to be doing some of that conversational response based on data in the system. So, someone can call up in the system and say, what’s happening with my tax return? And rather than it just being, you know, a box with information, there’s actually a conversational piece to that. That’s what we’re exploring right now. How do we put agents into the system that can enhance the user and employee experience? And we’re beginning to pilot that.
The future is endless, right? And again, it really goes back to that trust piece. How much information do you want in the hands of an individual to have a conversation with? Or how much of that, because if you want to have a conversation with an individual, you’re going to have to book a meeting time and it’s got to go do the scheduling and all those other things, right? But if it’s in the hands of agentic AI, then that can be more immediate in terms of your information request and receipt. So again, it’s really building that trust with our clients, piloting with clients that want to push the boundaries of this and then using that as a use case to demonstrate to other clients the benefits of that, and also the opportunities for improvement. So that’s kind of where we are right now across People Advisory Services.
And if I think about Canada in that context, Canada is one of ten super regions. So earlier this year, EY, we restructured our organization into ten super regions. Canada is one of those ten super regions. And being a super region allows us to pilot some things, share that with the rest of the globe, the other nine super regions, lead in some of those innovations, and really sort of drive some of that prototyping. And we’ve seen some of that already. And it’s beginning to, as I said, it’s beginning to- it’s evolving in ways I think that, you know, the imaginations of our people are really helping us sort of push the boundaries of what’s possible. It’s really, really interesting. And as Batia said, it’s very exciting. It’s very exciting.
Patrick: Well, you just-
Batia: Yeah.
Patrick: Sorry, go ahead, Batia.
Batia: Oh, I was just going to add, Patrick, you know, where our clients and their employees are, allow us to- you know, one of the deep values of coming to a firm like EY is that we can use this information in- entry once and multiple use, right?
Patrick: Right.
Batia: So, we do that for our clients, for sure, both on the immigration and tax side. Employees don’t want to have to give their information more than once. And if they allow us to share it, we absolutely do and will.
Patrick: Well, and employees don’t want to give their information more than once, because we all have so much experience of having to log into that streaming service again. We’re like, wait a minute, you already have my credentials, why am I logging into the streaming service again another time?
Batia: Yeah.
Patrick: And you actually, Chris, you said something that I think combined with Batia earlier; you mentioned sort of immigration as such a personal thing. When we’ve been thinking about AI, we’ve been thinking about in terms of what firms like EY bring to their clients, it’s the opportunity to cut costs or increasingly to increase revenues. So, it’s cost cutting and it’s revenue growth. You two have added the employee experience to it as well. Like there is a true employee experience benefit to AI, which I think most of the time we think about AI in the broader sense of being, you know, taking away jobs, eliminating jobs, but actually you’re positioning it more, this is how AI can make not only folks at EY’s job better, but even the employees of your enterprise customers, they get the employee experience benefit of it too, right?
Chris: Yeah, as we went down this journey, probably about, I don’t know, seven or eight years ago, as we were thinking about what was going to happen within HR and the evolving landscape ahead of us. And this was pre-COVID. We came up with a tagline: humans at center. And so, everything that we do, whether that’s technology, whether it’s how we build our systems, whether that’s how we scope our services, we do that with a mind of keeping humans at the center. So whether that’s the employee of our clients, or, and when I say the employee, the traveling employee, or the administrative employee, the person that now governs the programs that we deliver, or our own people, our intent is to put humans at the center. We do believe strongly that human connection is what people crave. We are designed for connection. And so, to the extent that we can have systems do a lot of the hard, heavy work, then actually humans have more time. And as you mentioned, cost, scale, and experience, right? Humans connecting with humans definitely brings about the best outcome. And so you get the machines to do the heavy lifting piece, you get them to deal with the non-critical pieces of the process, and then you can have humans now better connected for the things that were more critical and more human-centric, dealing with a lot of that tension and the emotion that comes with, again, immigration, tax is very personal, very sensitive. So, it allows and frees up our people to now engage in a different way with our clients.
Patrick: And Batia, as the cultural anthropologist in this chat, I think you must agree with the idea that we all want to have that personal relationship and all that, right?
Batia: Absolutely, absolutely. *laughs* I will say that it’s also for our- I can talk from the perspective of our people who are working with our clients that, as I said, and I’ll say it again, the complexity around us. I mean, being an immigration lawyer when I started 20+ years ago is very different to being an immigration lawyer or an immigration service provider today. The complexity is extreme. And so really giving our people the space and the opportunity to really think about the complexity and connect with our clients around that and support them in that through the use of AI and through the use of technology is really what we need to be doing and what we are doing.
Naming the unknows: Navigating uncertainty, AI developments and human behavior changes
Patrick: Yeah, excellent, excellent. So, I have two questions left, both of them sort of big picture stuff. One is, what are the, in each of your respective spaces, what are sort of your biggest unknowns, the things that you wish you kind of had the answer to. And I’ll give you an example from our- from my perspective, one of our biggest unknowns right now is what’s going to happen to the labor pyramid within all the services companies that we follow. It’s traditionally a pyramid. You guys have an up and out model like everybody does. You have an apprenticeship model. How much is that going to change over the next few years? That for us is important to understand because it has such a huge impact on the way that you run your businesses and the success of them. But within your spaces, what is that sort of, that unknown that you wish you really had an answer to, or you think you’re going to be working to get an answer to over the next couple of years? Batia, you want to go first?
Batia: Tough questions, Patrick. I was sitting here thinking, the biggest unknown for me is the is the unknown, if that makes sense, the change that’s all around us. But in a way, that’s actually known. The one thing that is certain for us is that there’s going to be uncertainty going forward. I don’t think we’ve had a time period where there’s been as much uncertainty just around immigration requirements and geopolitics and all of that is unknown.
The unknown really for me, and this is the exciting piece, because it’s unknown just because we’re in development still is really how we’re going to use AI and technology to support our clients and operate differently and better, to be honest. We know we’re going to do it. We’ve started on the journey, but the degree to which we are going to be able to leverage AI and technology is an exciting unknown for me because it’s just something we haven’t fully discovered yet. So, I think those would be my two answers.
Patrick: Yeah. That AI one is so true, because so much has already changed just in the last couple of years, so it really is an unknown in terms of what’s coming. So, yeah, Chris, how about you?
Chris: Yeah, again, it’s a really good question. This caused me to go into sort of pensive, thoughtful mode. But if I sort of take a step back, the one thing that sort of, and it doesn’t keep me up at night, but certainly you’d like to have maybe a crystal ball so you can kind of see into the future is how is human behavior and human expectation going to change with time? Because as we adopt technology, right, we adopt the telephone and then we adopted e-mail, the expectation was that much more immediate. What’s the new expectation going to be once we embed AI in all these things? And then how do we as an organization start to plan for that, right? That’s kind of, and so there’s the exciting pieces Batia mentioned with AI and new technology, for me is then what does that mean for human behavior? What does that mean for the new skill sets and talents, adaptability, we talk about the ability to adapt, right? We got to get people with the ability to adapt. And what are we adapting to, right? That’s the unknown piece that Batia mentioned. And so how does that change our business? How does that change our business model? How does that change our people? How does that change the makeup of the people that we attract or we’re looking to attract? Like all of those things are what I sort of think about. And now you’ve really started that wheel going in my head, I’m going to have to start to write things down now. Patrick, thank you.
Patrick: So, now overlay a generational change on top of that as well.
Chris: Yes.
Patrick: So- because the way that I adapt to technology is very different than the way that my colleague Haley sitting next to me adapts to technology. So that’s, and then it depends on what industry. Yeah, it’s fascinating.
Final thoughts
All right, last question. I promise we’ll wrap this up. I’ve been asking everybody this question so far this season because it kind of, it ties to AI, the sort of, again, the common story, the conventional wisdom out there is that AI is going to replace a whole bunch of jobs. So, if your job had to go away, if you could say, all right, I’m going to spend 10,000 hours now and I’m just going to, I’m going to gain a skill. There are some things that AI won’t take away. Batia, you mentioned creativity and creative thinking earlier. But if there was something you could sit down now and just say, I’m going to spend 10,000 hours and I’m going to develop an irreplaceable and- a skill that could not be replaced by AI. And it could be speaking multiple languages, although that could be replaced by AI. It could be playing the guitar. It could be turning yourself invisible, I don’t know. Pick some sort of thing that you wish you could do, some sort of skill that if you could say, I’m going to spend 10,000 hours and just perfect it, what would that skill be? Chris, you have to go first this time.
Chris: Yeah. Oh, wow. Man, you really know how to put these questions out there. These are like deep, philosophical, life altering questions. No, if I were to sort of spend 10,000 hours on something now, it would probably be, and I kind of do some of it now, but it’d be mentorship, like strengthening my chops with mentorship. Yeah, sort of, yeah, mentorship, life coaching or something like that. Because again, as the world changes, the ability for people to adjust to that change can be quite burdensome and quite taxing. And so, helping people navigate the change, which is kind of what we do every day in our roles, help sort of vision a future and bring everybody along. But sort of helping people make the change would be something. If I had nothing else to do, then I’d probably go into life coaching or something like that.
Patrick: It’s fascinating. And that’s so dependent upon trust too, the whole trusted relationship.
Chris: Yes, sir.
Patrick: Yeah, excellent. Batia, how about you?
Batia: I’ll build on that a little bit because I love the answer. I’m going to say that focused specifically on mentoring people and building, continuing to build my own skill around interaction. Human interaction, client service, understanding, you know, empathy, understanding where people are coming from, where our clients, what’s driving our clients, because I think that’s the key to client service. I think it really is around understanding people’s positions and what’s important to them to really build that lasting relationship.
Patrick: Well, I got to say, you two are, you’re absolutely reinforcing the humans at the center message of the firm. So that’s fantastic. Excellent. Thank you both so much for coming on. This has been an enormous pleasure. I’ve really enjoyed this.
Batia: Thank you, Patrick. It’s been great.
Chris: Thank you, Patrick. It’s been a fantastic conversation.
Patrick: Tune in next week for another episode of TBR Talks. Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.
Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.
TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms
Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.
“TBR Talks” is available on all major podcast platforms. Subscribe today!
https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/EYS-AI1-scaled.jpg25602560TBRhttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngTBR2025-12-08 10:11:502025-12-08 10:11:54EY’s AI Strategy for People Advisory Services: Managing Partners and Regional Leaders at EY Share AI Insights
IT Infrastructure Principal Analyst Angela Lambert and Senior Analyst and NVIDIA research lead Ben Carbonneau join “TBR Talks” to share key takeaways and insights into NVIDIA’s strategies for 2026 and beyond. Recently, “TBR Talks” host Patrick Heffernan met with executives and others within the GPU ecosystem at NVIDIA GTC, and on this episode, all three analysts share their thoughts on partnerships, business strategy and growth for the leading GPU firm.
Episode highlights:
• NVIDIA’s partnership announcements and partnership strategy
• NVIDIA chip manufacturing in the U.S.
• The competitive landscape for NVIDIA
• Ambition, risks and partnerships: Where will NVIDIA be a year from now?
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy
NVIDIA: What’s Next, Beyond Market Maker?
TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem, from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors.
I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about NVIDIA GTC with Angela Lambert, Principal Analyst for TBR’s IT Infrastructure Practice, and Ben Carbonneau, Senior Analyst for TBR’s Infrastructure Practice.
NVIDIA’s partnership announcements and partnership strategy
Angela and Ben, welcome back to TBR Talks. Through the magic of recording, it feels like we’re doing these on back-to-back days, but you won’t get to listen to them on back-to-back days, but that’s the way it goes. So last week, actually last week, I was down in D.C.- kind of a back home for me, having lived there for almost a decade, a long time ago. It was nice to go back, but this was for NVIDIA’s huge annual global, I think it’s GPU technology conference is what it technically stands for, NVIDIA GTC. And so got to see the keynote, hear a bunch of presentations, meet with a lot of folks, spend a lot of time with NVIDIA the same week that they catapulted over $5 trillion in their evaluation. So, I’m not saying I was responsible for that, but, you know, it was nice to be there at the time when it happened. So, what I wanted to do is bounce some of the ideas that I heard last week from NVIDIA off of you two, because this is a company that you both follow very closely. So, what I heard, what you think about what I heard, then maybe where we think NVIDIA is going next. So, for both of you, and I guess I’ll start with Ben on this one, the partnerships that were announced last week included Nokia, Palantir, CrowdStrike, and a number of other ones. Did any of them surprise you? Are there any departures from what you’ve seen from NVIDIA before?
Ben Carbonneau, TBR Senior Analyst: I’d say at a high level, nothing really surprises me from NVIDIA on the partnering front. I’d almost think more of what large technology companies aren’t partnered with NVIDIA. So, I see NVIDIA really being kind of, you know, at the epicenter of AI, right? So not only does, I think, like every large technology company want to partner with NVIDIA, but NVIDIA’s go to market strategy and being kind of that partner led, wanting to be recognized as more of a platform provider than a solutions provider, I think through that lens, they’re really dependent on the partnerships for go-to-market. And whether that’s partners to gain some sort of technological solution or partners for go-to-market specifically, or even partners around integration, I think there’s a lot of different flavors of NVIDIA partnerships. And I guess nothing really surprises me there. Nokia, Palantir, CrowdStrike. I think Palantir was a good one, given the venue.
Patrick: Of course, right, with the U.S. government, absolutely, yeah. How about you, Angela?
Angela Lambert, TBR Principal Analyst: One- looking at the partnership announcements, I have to wonder in relation to that $5 trillion valuation you’re talking about is if we’re going to see more of an increasing trend in some of the heavy investments that NVIDIA is making alongside partnerships. So as part of that Nokia announcement, NVIDIA is investing a billion dollars in their company to help develop this technology. And only a handful of weeks ago were they doing the same thing with Intel, investing $5 billion in the form of, you know, joint partnership, but also getting some stake in these companies. So, I think that to me, it’s indicative of the fact that NVIDIA has the capital to invest. And so, beyond your standard tech partnership where two companies are working together, they’re going to also be willing to invest significant amounts of dollars to help move the market in the direction they want to see it going.
Patrick: And part of that is NVIDIA investing for those companies like a Nokia to turn around and purchase chips from NVIDIA, right?
Angela: Absolutely, yeah. So, it’s mutually beneficial in the sense that they’re getting joint investment in developing technologies, but then on the backside, NVIDIA is guaranteeing purchases down the road of their technology.
Patrick: Right. And Ben, to your point about the number of partners walking the floor of the conference, it was pretty amazing. CDW was there, which I did not expect. There were a number of- Booz Allen Hamilton, a number of the other federally focused companies, which I did expect. Only one out of the big four firms were there. And I’m not going to name names. They can figure it out for themselves, and I’ve already been in touch with all four of the firms to say, well, three of them to say, why weren’t you there? And one of them to follow up. So, it’s curious who did show up and who didn’t show up for this event.
Does NVIDIA run the risk of spreading themselves to thin with their partnerships?
But that sort of does lead to a bigger question. And in talking with some of the folks I met with from NVIDIA, they repeatedly talked about open system, providing developers tools, all about their partnering. Has that, and to me, it was just surprising because we talk about ecosystems all the time, but it’s an evolving thing. They talked about it as something they’ve been doing for a long time. Is it true? Is that consistent from them? And then is there a risk of them sort of spreading themselves too thin, diluting their value, making missteps if they partner with so many companies? Angela.
Angela: So, I think that this is a consistent theme from NVIDIA, and I can’t wait to hear if Ben feels the same. When I think about the potential risk of NVIDIA spreading themselves too thin on their partnerships, you know, we see them moving in so many directions, right? Beyond just the data center, you see huge investments in automotive, and telecom, and robotics. You know, the list goes on and on. I think to me, NVIDIA, rightly so, sees themselves as a market maker today. And frankly, not every endeavor and partnership is going to be a successful one. But given their current revenue flow and capital, they have an opportunity to be a market maker in terms of reaching out to so many types of partners and helping to develop markets and further entrench themselves as a part of that. So, they can help coordinate across different pieces of the ecosystem and start accelerating the development and movement in some of these areas. That being said, I think sometimes you hear a lot of talk about one topic and then the next GTC, maybe you never, you don’t hear a word about it.
Patrick: Right.
Angela: But yeah, there’s definitely a give and take on success on those.
Ben: I would definitely agree with everything you said. NVIDIA being the market maker and really kind of making the ecosystems, as in kind of connecting partners that it has in different competencies, I see as a really core function of NVIDIA. I think even on their website, when I’m writing their quarterly report, I’m always kind of looking into developments with NVIDIA’s partner network. And there you can see how NVIDIA kind of segments its different partners into different groups. And I think in that sense, you get a real feel for how broad their partnerships are across different, kind of, industry verticals, if you will. So, for instance, I think one thing I see is NVIDIA partnering a lot, at least from Angela and I’s perspective, we follow infrastructure OEMs. So, we hear a lot of, kind of, partnership talk with the infrastructure OEMs, but then they’re bringing in, you know, GSIs from your lens. And I think together there’s room for a GSI to work in conjunction with NVIDIA and an infrastructure OEM in bringing a client a kind of comprehensive solution.
Patrick: Yeah, 100%. And I think that- I hope we’ll see that kind of go to market put together between, you know, sort of the three-way, four-way alliances. But one thing that sort of strikes me in what you’re saying is, and I guess I hadn’t thought about this until you brought it up, they do serve as an orchestrator within their ecosystem, which is different than most chip manufacturers, different than most manufacturers, period. We think of the consultancies and even the GSIs as providing that orchestration across the different technologies, bringing in the cloud and software and all that kind of stuff. Here NVIDIA is actually playing that role, which is kind of, it’s certainly unique and it certainly is in its own way kind of disruptive. But if they’re doing it as a way of, Angela, to your point, making the market, that is sort of a way of bringing everybody along. And if you have this sort of open system, developer-focused system in your DNA, then it’s easier to bring everybody along, right?
Angela: Absolutely. I think of them very much in this moment akin to what Microsoft has done in so many areas of the market where the technology is there, but they bring so many partners together. They help them innovate on developing features and capabilities that take advantage of the technology. So yeah, it’s really beneficial for all of the partners in the market in that sense.
Patrick: If NVIDIA becomes as ubiquitous as Microsoft, they will be a $15 trillion, $20 trillion company, right? Yeah, it is- it’s fascinating. And the automotive thing, I have to admit, it really caught my attention because it’s just such a, it’s so straightforward. Like, let’s just build the chassis that every robotaxi can be built on. It just makes complete sense.
NVIDIA chip manufacturing in the U.S.
So, speaking of building things and manufacturing, Jensen said they’d be producing chips in the U.S. including the Blackwell within the next few months. And I say that because I can’t recall whether he said they’re going to start manufacturing now or start manufacturing in January or sometime later in the spring. But just to put it all in context, and we think back to where NVIDIA was just a couple of years ago when they were designing, but certainly not manufacturing. Is it a surprise that they’re going to manufacture themselves, that they’ve made that investment? And is it a surprise that they’re going to do it in the U.S.?
Ben: So personally, I don’t think it’s much of a surprise that they’re going to go to U.S. manufacturing. And I think it really revolves around what we’re seeing kind of through a political lens right now with the Trump administration. But even before that, with the groundwork laid with the CHIPS Act and the Biden administration, where it was really kind of a desire for the U.S. to reshore some of this manufacturing and control more of the chip supply chain. So, I know that TSMC has made really big investments being the most advanced chip manufacturer, expanding its fab capacity in Arizona. I want to say Samsung’s also increasing their fab capacities and with NVIDIA looking to continue manufacturing with these leading semiconductor fabs, it makes sense that they’re coming and kind of using that capacity that’s onshore in the United States. And I think without NVIDIA’s demand, and then also I think Apple’s a big player there, that it would have been hard to get TSMC and Samsung to make these investments and bring the manufacturing over to the United States.
Patrick: Right. And there was at one point, kind of, a very super geeky, in the details question about one little aspect of the manufacturing process and was NVIDIA going to do it or was TSMC going to do it? And there was this sort of back and forth of, you know, yes, TSMC is going to do it for a while, but we’re developing it. So, it sounds like it’s not just a one-off, let’s build a factory in Arizona. It’s going to be- it’s a big long investment by them and a strategy to actually build out that capacity, as you said, to sort of reshore that. So, Angela, any thoughts on that?
Angela: Well, as you describe that, it’s just, to me, I would call it, not to compare NVIDIA to all these different other giant companies, but to me, that’s very much the Apple play. Where, you know, in earlier iPhones, they relied on so many supply chain partners to build the devices, and over time, they have cut back more and more and, you know, figured out how to manufacture their own pieces there. So, I think strategically it helps you reduce costs likely. It helps you have more control over your supply chain, so eliminate risk. And if you’re in kind of that powerful position where you can develop those elements and make those investments, I think long-term, it could certainly be really beneficial.
Patrick: Yeah, and then by reducing your risks, certainly through supply chain, that frees up more of your capital to make those investments we were talking about before in your partners. So, yeah, it all makes sense.
The competitive landscape for NVIDIA
So, then the next question, of course, is then when you look at the competition. Now, Ben, you sent me a note while I was down there because of somebody I was about to meet and you described how he was the guy who created the moat that NVIDIA enjoys being behind. I used that term with him, and he sort of bristled and said, it’s not a moat. Like, okay, I didn’t throw you under the bus and let him know that it was you that actually told me to say that. But in any case, they do have competitors. So, what do you think about the competitive landscape for NVIDIA right now? Are they in such a good place that they don’t need to concern themselves too much? Or are there threats to their arguably pretty dominant position in the market?
Ben: Sure. So, there’s a couple of things I want to unpack there. So, for those-
Patrick: First, a thank you for not throwing you under the bus. *laughs*
Ben: *laughs* Yes, first a thank you.
Patrick: Okay, there we go.
Ben: The man in question would otherwise be known as the father of CUDA and is really, I think, behind- and he won’t call it a moat. I think NVIDIA tries to toe a line between being seen as an open ecosystem player, but really being advantaged by some of its proprietary- the proprietary integration of how tightly its software and hardware work together.
Patrick: No doubt. Yup.
Ben: So, I think that’s given them kind of this crazy profitability that I always have to, I always have to check twice when I’m looking at a SEC filing. Those margins are wild. But I think where NVIDIA is advantaged and where they won’t really be impacted too much by competition in the near term is that they have a lot of these proprietary pieces in their integrated software and hardware stack. And I think we’ve seen NVIDIA with, for instance, the introduction of NVLink Fusion which allows for the networking between a third-party custom CPU, so something maybe like something developed by Amazon, Google, or Microsoft, to work with an NVIDIA accelerator or opposite for NVIDIA’s Grace CPU at the moment to work with the hyperscaler’s AI accelerators. I think by making that that announcement and bringing forward NVLink Fusion is kind of a way that NVIDIA’s strategically dismantling parts of its closed ecosystem moat in a way that probably sacrifices a little bit of lock-in and a little bit of profit margin in a way to maintain that dominant share. And I think they have so much margin to play with, and so many proprietary pieces in the stack that they’ll be able to slowly kind of dismantle those pieces and maintain market share.
However, I will say when I think about who stands out as a challenger to NVIDIA, I see the biggest challenger today being AMD. While the hyperscalers do have their own custom AI accelerators, they’re not the same as an NVIDIA GPU or even what AMD’s offering with its line of Instinct AI accelerators in the sense that they’re not as programmable. So, they’re not as flexible to different workloads. And I think that’s where NVIDIA has been really advantaged is in the flexibility of their chips. Also, again, kind of going back to one of your questions earlier, you were talking about, you know, how NVIDIA is really the provider of all these developer tools. I think the developers are what drives NVIDIA’s advantage in the market. And the flexibility and tight integration of the software and the hardware is why NVIDIA will remain dominant, in my view, over some of these custom application-specific integrated circuits that are coming to market.
Patrick: Yeah, and they talked, Jensen in particular talked about the sort of virtuous cycle, and the developers were very much at the early part of that. And so just the virtuous AI cycle of generating the demand for their chips and then supplying the compute power and all that. So, and when you think about it in terms of AI is that there’s no one that stands out as like, this could be a- this could change things for NVIDIA if this particular company or solution or chip or whatever takes off specific to AI?
Ben: I see the biggest inhibitor for AMD is less related to the silicon because I think they’ve proved in some benchmarks that they’re roughly equivalent Instinct GPU to a Blackwell B200 could be more performant on certain workloads. The real differentiator is NVIDIA’s ecosystem of developers. And I think a way that that’s underscored is by kind of looking at what we see in enterprise AI. With NVIDIA AI Enterprise, their software stack for creating agentic AI solutions, the company charges I don’t know how many thousands of dollars per node on a subscription basis for access to that software. Where AMD is now trying to build a following of developers behind its ROCm platform, but AMD is giving away, AMD is taking the more open play, I guess you could say, but also kind of having to catch up and giving away their software for free.
Patrick: Right, which can work in the short term, but not in the long term, nothing can always be free.
Ambition, risks and partnerships: Where will NVIDIA be a year from now?
So just to wrap up then, Angela, thoughts on where we think NVIDIA is going to be a year from now? Like what are some of the things you would anticipate coming from them, whether it’s new partnerships, possible acquisitions, changes in the way that they’re operating, pricing? What do you think is going to change in the next year with NVIDIA?
Angela: So, I think looking out over the next year, we’re going to see NVIDIA continue to be super ambitious. We talked about how beyond the data center, there’s expansion in so many edge, telecom, automotive, robotic areas. That I think again, we will be tracking how those particular areas evolve and to your point, whether or not NVIDIA is spreading themselves too thin, or if there’s areas that end up starting to take some precedence over others. Like telco, I think, is going to be a really interesting opportunity given just the challenges financially in that market for telecom providers. You know, can AI solve problems for them, or is it going to just mean more spending on infrastructure with capital they don’t have? I think that’ll be super interesting to watch unfold. And I think I’m interested to see, to some of Ben’s comments, how much we see the moat dismantle, the non-existent moat. And I think that I certainly expect more interoperability announcements and different elements of data center networking or the CPUs, GPUs, because there is a risk that customers will say, you know what, this is too much NVIDIA for me. And then that’s really the potential risk I see as far as the partnering and just general dominance.
Patrick: Yeah. Ben, how about yourself?
Ben: Going off that, I’d say the two biggest risks I see for NVIDIA, I think they’ll still continue those really large investments, which is supported by their growing partner network, but also just the incredible, kind of, top line growth that we continue to see with their chips. I think that- we’ll continue to see that just because of the rate at which the performance of each generation of GPU that NVIDIA is releasing delivers. But I think the two biggest threats to NVIDIA is really kind of looking at that coopetition lens where if you think about AWS, Google, and Microsoft as some of the company’s most prominent partners and biggest partners, they’re also ceding a lot of profit dollars to NVIDIA. So kind of building off that, the second threat that I really see kind of impacting NVIDIA and I think driving the dismantling of the moat is when one company has so much control of the stack, they’re making so much margin that I think that’s what really drives competition into the market. So, we’ll see more companies working with, you know, like the Broadcom’s of the world on XPU development.
Patrick: Right.
Ben: And I think that by taking those margins and for lack of a better word, being a little greedy there. I think that’s what’s going to drive investments from their competition. So, it will be interesting to see how NVIDIA toes the line between that kind of open and closed partner-led vs. not partner-led, how much profit they want to take. I think those are really the things that we’ll be watching in the next couple of years or even the next couple quarters.
Patrick: Yeah, it’s going to be fascinating. From my perspective, I’ll be watching very closely to see who coming out of that conference and going forward are their most active, vocal out there in the market, screaming about their partnership with NVIDIA, who among the companies that I cover in the services and the consulting space are increasing their efforts to piggyback on NVIDIA’s success. So, we’ll have a lot to cover.
Final thoughts
Angela, Ben, thank you very much for coming in again. Appreciate this, and we will talk again soon.
Angela: Thanks, Patrick.
Ben: Thanks.
Patrick: Tune in next week for another episode of TBR Talks. Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.
Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.
TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms
Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.
“TBR Talks” is available on all major podcast platforms. Subscribe today!
Senior Analyst Ben Carbonneau and Principal Analyst Angela Lambert review Lenovo’s 2025 Global Industry Analyst Conference, where Lenovo provided updates on its overall strategy and ambitions to shift its perception from a PC vendor to a full-stack, end-to-end solution provider. The pair discusses the event’s AI strategy announcement, how this year’s GIAC differed from past years and where Lenovo is differentiating itself from peers
Episode highlights:
• Insights into Lenovo’s Services and Solutions Group and One Lenovo strategy
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy
Lenovo’s 2026 AI Strategy: GIAC 2025 Key Takeaways
TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms, where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors.
I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about Lenovo GIAC 2025, with Angela Lambert, Principal Analyst for TBR’s IT Infrastructure Practice, and Ben Carbonneau, Senior Analyst for TBR’s IT Infrastructure Practice.
How was this Lenovo event different from past years?
Angela and Ben, welcome back to the podcast. It’s nice to have you guys here.
Angela Lambert, TBR Principal Analyst: Happy to be here.
Ben Carbonneau, TBR Senior Analyst: Always great to be featured.
Patrick: And it was fun traveling with you down to North Carolina to spend three full days, it felt like, with Lenovo at their US headquarters. Super good fun, we could talk the whole time if we wanted to about food, but we should probably talk about Lenovo itself. So, let’s start with Angela, can you give us a sense of how was this event different than the ones you’ve been to in years past?
Angela: Hmm, how was it different? Well, I think what I would say, comparing Lenovo’s event this year to years past, is that what I actually see is a lot of consistency. There’s a lot of consistency in the messaging compared to last year. I think Lenovo has set their strategy in AI, and they are executing on that strategy and we didn’t see really significant departures from that. Which while as analysts, we can say, I’ve heard this before, I think from a strategic services/product standpoint, that’s actually a good thing that we saw so much consistency from last year.
Patrick: And I imagine the temptation for any company, and because we see this all the time, is to ensure that they’re presenting something new, that they’re highlighting something new, that they’re constantly telling you exactly that. You didn’t see this last year. But you’re saying there’s actually a lot of value in, hey, we know what our strategy is going to be and we’re going to execute on it.
Angela: Yeah, I think that we see that, and the value I see in that for Lenovo is the fact that their strategy is a little bit different, particularly from what I see with other infrastructure vendors. Many of them are going really hard at the big CSPs. And it would have been easy for Lenovo to have a knee-jerk reaction and shift their direction a little, but I really think that they’re staying true to focusing on their enterprise and mid-market customer base. And I think- I see a lot of long-term vision in terms of how they’re going to serve that customer base with their AI strategy.
Patrick: Right, that really came through. Ben, was there anything in particular that jumped out at you as being different or the same from years past?
Ben: Sure, yeah. So, I’ve only been to- last year was my first industry analyst conference with Lenovo, and we were fortunate enough to go to Seattle, and the event was held in conjunction with their Tech World event. I think possibly some of the reasons why we didn’t hear a lot of kind of new product launches and things along those lines is because they’re probably saving some of that for January, the Tech World in conjunction with Consumer Electronics Show. So, to be determined on that.
I think also maybe there was a reluctancy to talk too much about storage just because the company’s pending acquisition of Infinidat. But in contrast to maybe last year, I think maybe just from a nerdy technology perspective for me was I didn’t get to see as many of those kind of solutions on a showcase floor. But what was really cool, kind of a closed door sessions for analysts to tour Lenovo’s design space for their PCs, so a bunch of stuff we can’t talk about that we saw in there, but that was really, really cool for somebody who’s as into that kind of nerdy, geeky stuff as I am.
Patrick: And it was cool for me, and I’m not into the nerdy, geeky stuff, but some of the stuff in that design lab was pretty amazing.
Lenovo’s Services and Solutions Group and One Lenovo Strategy
So, I want to talk a little bit about, I know you’ve written up an event perspective on it, and one of the things that caught my eye was you talk about the three different pieces of Lenovo. So, there’s infrastructure, there’s devices, and there’s services and solutions. And you called services the interconnective tissue. What exactly do you mean by that?
Ben: So, I think it kind of ties back to the formation of Solutions and Services Group. So, Lenovo SSG, at one point, the company operated just two businesses. So, Intelligent Devices Group and Data Center Group, which has now turned to Infrastructure Solutions Group. The company, I want to say in 2020, and Angela can check me on that, formed SSG to kind of abstract their services business and really, I think it goes toward, kind of, their whole emphasis. And one thing that really resonated to me throughout the event was that their big goal with marketing is really changing perception from being a PC vendor to being a solutions provider. I think the formation of Services and Solutions Group helps them do that by kind of making that its own separate piece. However, going back to kind of what Angela was saying about recurring themes from the different events that Lenovo’s held, one thing that I know we’ve heard several times is kind of Lenovo’s One Lenovo strategy. And that’s really where I see kind of the business units working together and less in silos to create these solutions and kind of make this Solutions and Services led pivot. I think at the basis, we know Lenovo’s a hardware company, so, they have their client devices hardware, they have their infrastructure hardware. But that Services and Solutions piece over the top, I think, is really what kind of propels them onto that Services and Solutions led Pivot, as well as kind of bringing them up the value chain from just being a hardware manufacturer into being an actual solutions kind of provider.
Patrick: Ben, you said a lot of things in there. I want to pull out two ideas in particular. One, this idea that at its core, in its DNA, they are a hardware, they’re devices, they make stuff. And then also that there’s a perception that the market doesn’t fully understand everything else that they do. So, Angela, did that come through to you, how they’re trying to shift that perception? Was there anything that struck you as a way that they might actually be able to make some progress in making that change in the coming couple of years?
Angela: I think the Lenovo team did share a lot about how they’re changing perceptions, and a lot of that’s through sponsorships and partnerships. Some of those are very public ones, like with Formula One, for example, or FIFA. I was really, really impressed by hearing the story of their customer DreamWorks and how they’ve been able to go in to a place where maybe they were more so focused on selling high-powered PCs in the past to this client, but how they could really show them how they can transform their entire data center using their Neptune servers and actually seeing kind of the metrics on the insane amount of consolidation they did there and really the overall impact on that business. I thought that was a really impressive in a way to demonstrate how they can use their One Lenovo strategy, but also the kind of change in helping the market better understand that they’re not just devices focused. There’s a much broader solution set that they can bring to customers.
Patrick: Yeah, and that customer use case was really good from DreamWorks.
Lenovo’s differentiators
Were there other, either particular sessions or particular customer use cases that stood out for you that are most memorable from, again, three days. For example, and if it’s not a particular use case, like some way that Lenovo differentiates, because we hear a lot of stories, we hear a lot of use cases, we hear a lot of, you know, this client is so happy because this company did X for them. But what were the things that stood out when you took a step back after three days? And you say, okay, this is what actually does differentiate Lenovo. Is it liquid cooling to get all geeky? Is it Hybrid AI Advantage? Is it Device as a Service? What is it that, Angela, maybe you go first. What is it that really struck you as different about Lenovo this time? Not this time, different about Lenovo overall.
Angela: Yeah, I think some of those that you’ve called out tie into my initial comment at the outset of this discussion, which was that I see Lenovo really focusing on how they can innovate and differentiate for their enterprise and mid-market customers. And the sessions we did on liquid cooling, I’ll admit, you know, I may have gone in a little bit of a skeptic on the liquid cooling because everybody has it in some form or another. And I know there’s a lot of engineering that goes on behind that, but what really I better understood after the session was the implications of liquid cooling for an enterprise or for even a company like DreamWorks who is, you know, it’s not tens of thousands or 100,000 employees. Their IT teams are not massive. And when ultimately these companies need to make transitions to liquid cooling, Lenovo has a certain expertise around the services side in terms of assessing their current data centers, assessing what it’s going to take to retrofit this. So, it’s not the same skill set as a company that’s going in and saying, we can build a brand new data center from the ground up. They have a skill set specific to helping their customers who need to work with what they have, make it work better for them, and then also help maintain that in the long term. So that’s where I actually saw the most value out of a liquid cooling session was the real expertise in making it work for someone who’s not a gigantic CSP or GPU as a Service provider.
Patrick: And one of the- during one of the main presentations from the Services and Solutions Group, they mentioned change management, and they talked about how they have change management specialists within Lenovo, something I did not know prior to going to town in North Carolina. And that fits right in with that because you can’t provide all that kind of technology and services you just talked about without including the change management that that goes along with it. So, Ben, how about you? What sort of differentiates, what does differentiate Lenovo?
Ben: I think I’ll talk about Hybrid AI Advantage as the big differentiator that I pulled from the event and then Lenovo’s kind of consistent messaging that we’ve heard more over the last 12 months. But I guess one thing that I would say, just to kind of close the topic on liquid cooling, is that-
Patrick: Because we can’t talk about liquid cooling enough.
Ben: *laughs* Is that for me, I already mentioned One Lenovo. Another slogan that Lenovo loves to put into our ear is Hybrid AI for All. And I really think that Neptune liquid cooling really exemplifies their Hybrid AI for All strategy in the sense that, you know, while all companies, or most of the companies that Angela and I follow as far as infrastructure OEMs have liquid cooling technology, Lenovo’s different flavors of Neptune liquid cooling kind of address different customers at different stages of adoption of liquid cooling and at different stages of, you know, readiness of their environment to accept or be retrofitted for liquid cooling. So that’s one thing that really stood out to me. I think, Nvidia’s come out with RTX Server Edition GPUs, which are an air-cooled solution, you know, for AI compute workloads. But while I think that air-cooled, you know, will probably gain the most traction in on-premises enterprise data centers, well, whether it’s in the core data center or more at the far edge, I also think that there’s a place for kind of different steps of liquid cooling, whether it’s full liquid cooling, like Neptune, the full kind of flagship solution, or whether it’s Neptune Core, which targets just the hottest components, or even whether it’s Neptune Air, which I think is probably where the company is seeing the most traction in kind of converting customers to liquid cooling, where it’s really the smallest step toward liquid cooling. It doesn’t require any new plumbing into their existing environment. I see that as something that’s easier to adopt and definitely drives kind of that services opportunity that Angela alluded to with the retrofitting.
Patrick: And real quick on that, within a year, we should be able to see what the adoption rates are on that are, right? I mean, there should, if it’s going to gain traction, it’s going to gain traction now. So, we’ll know in a year from now, right?
Ben: Yes, I can’t pull them up off the top of my head. I know that Lenovo does state kind of it’s Neptune liquid cooling growth. A lot of times in it’s earnings call transcript, but it’s definitely something that’s been growing quickly. And for a company that doesn’t provide kind of those hard AI server backlog numbers, like some of its competitors, it’s something that I’ve used as a proxy in my modeling to kind of get at that AI server number.
Patrick: Right. And then you mentioned Hybrid AI Advantage. What is it about that that’s different?
Ben: I think the big differentiator for Hybrid AI Advantage is that while all the infrastructure OEMs that we follow, so including Dell and HPE, they all kind of have these joint solution portfolios built around NVIDIA AI Enterprise. What I see as a differentiator for Lenovo, and I know it’s something that they continue to invest in, they’re telling us about expanding their footprint of AI centers of excellence around the globe is their AI library. So that kind of fits into Hybrid AI Advantage where they’re not just trying to sell themselves to build a solution on top of NVIDIA’s software platform, but they’re also coming to customers with a lot more pre-built, almost ready to kind of plug and play AI solutions that were built from their ISV partners. So, I know that kind of stems from their AI Innovators program, and I can’t come up with the date that AI Innovators was founded, but I know that it was before the big rise of ChatGPT. So that’s definitely something where I see, kind of, Lenovo having an advantage over its peers, really, with that strong ecosystem of ISV partners, creating those more plug and play solutions. And then also not just kind of relying on GPU-enabled servers, but something that I see Lenovo doing also is really saying that for some AI workloads, the less intensive AI workloads, a CPU is perfectly fine and maybe the most practical kind of processor to be running these kind of workloads. So, by working with ISVs, creating solutions in conjunction with some of their CPU-oriented edge servers, I think that’s kind of an AI play that I don’t see from other infrastructure OEMs that I follow.
Patrick: Right, because it’s more lucrative to sell GPU solutions, not just say that you can get by with something cheaper and faster, or none of it’s faster, easier, right?
Ben: For sure, yeah. I think there’s a lot of glamour around the NVIDIA name, but an Intel Xeon CPU is still a strong computer processor.
Repeatable solutions
Patrick: So, I want to run something by you both, because you know Lenovo better than I do, and I was focused more on the Services and Solutions Group. And one thing I heard from them was this idea of concentrating their efforts, their go-to-market, their investments in services and solutions that are repeatable, that are replicable. So, it’s not just the single bespoke solution or the single offering aimed at a particular client, it’s something that they can bring to lots of other clients that they know they can actually scale within Lenovo within their suite of offerings. And what struck me about that is how I heard the exact same thing from Fujitsu earlier in the summer, and I heard the exact same thing from Hitachi earlier this year as well. And so it makes me think there’s a bit of a kind of a hardware, DNA, a mindset that says, in the same way that you build a device and you build it many, many, many times, you’re also building a service and you’re building it many, many, many, many times. So, is it accurate for me to think about that’s how Lenovo thinks about the world they play in and what they’re good at, and that’s why they’re looking to replicate? Or is there something more behind that I’m missing?
Angela: I do think that’s a trend you’ll see among hardware providers, and I think it’s existed in previous tech iterations, thinking back to IOT or edge computing. Whenever there’s a situation where you have a piece of hardware that has almost an infinite number of potential applications or use cases, what these vendors want to do is identify some of the maybe most applicable ones that can benefit the most customers the most quickly and roll those out. And over time, I think those will evolve. So, while it’s not, I don’t think it’s particularly unique to Lenovo, I did see that unsurprisingly, Lenovo’s focusing on some of the areas where they’re really strong. So, they’re focusing on AI in manufacturing solutions. They’re focusing on it in supply chain, in retail, in safety.
Patrick: So those are three areas where they’re sort of customer zero as well. They manufacture, they have a complex supply chain, they are in the retail space. So, right? I mean, that’s part of what they’re bringing to the table.
Angela: Absolutely, they’re very focused on, as I think it’s safe to say, Linda Yao would say, eating their own dog food. They are absolutely customer zero and doing many of those things internally and then bringing that to their customer base.
Patrick: Right. Eating their own squirrel fish, perhaps?
Angela: The squirrel fish was-
Patrick: We’ll get back to that in just a minute.
Key themes from GIAC
A couple last questions as we wrap up here. I want just some of the broad themes that came out. I know we’ve touched on a bunch of them so far, but just things that you sort of walked away with and maybe, if not necessarily a broad theme or a key theme from the event, just was there anything that changed your mind? Did you walk away, did you get on the plane leaving North Carolina and think, okay, I have a different view of Lenovo because of this? Either of those things.
Ben: I think even more powerful than maybe getting on the plane with a different view of Lenovo was actually a PC session that I was in that really had me getting on the plane thinking differently about the PC market. And it’s something that I’ve followed in really since the beginning of my time at TBR. And it’s always been a market that I saw as kind of almost as close as to being commoditized as really any market that we follow in tech. But what Lenovo demonstrated to me is that, you know, with going through their design lab, but even more with the software that the company’s building around their devices, is that they are going to be driving differentiation in the market. And I think there’s some things that will have to kind of wait to be publicly announced. But I do see the company, whether it’s with their kind of one AI multiple devices strategy and following Apple into that devices ecosystem play, I think Lenovo might be better equipped than, I guess, any other devices company that I’ve seen yet in executing on that. And I think, one quote that really stuck with me, I like this one, and I can’t remember which executive said it, but the quote was, you only date your hardware provider, but you marry your software provider. And I thought that quote was excellent. And I think that by building in that software layer, the kind of unified devices ecosystem, the whole one AI multiple devices play that Lenovo is doing, I think they do make their devices’ ecosystem a little bit stickier and do drive differentiation in a market that I’d otherwise seen as very commoditized.
Patrick: Yeah. I want to come back to all that in a minute. But Angela, I want to give you a chance to weigh in. What was your key theme or your sort of key takeaway or what changed for you?
Angela: I think, so like I said at the beginning, there was a lot of consistency in Lenovo’s messaging, particularly on AI strategy. What I think stood out to me was helping me remember that Lenovo is a very engineering and design-oriented company, and they’re doing just so much focus on that. And they’ve built much on that with the services group. But seeing that underpinning almost everything that we were shown throughout those three days was very powerful.
Patrick: Yeah, and you mentioned AI, and there was a really good section where they talked about in particular, agentic AI and the need to marry both intent and context and what that actually looks like in the agentic AI space, which for me was just a really great way of thinking about it. I hadn’t put it quite together like that. Ben, last year, I went to Seattle with you and we- and I learned that I actually am interested in liquid cooling. Now it’s possible I’m going to care about PCs, which is a little shocking. We’ll have to revisit this in a couple of months and see if I actually, if you can actually make me want to care about PCs. Maybe, who knows?
Ben: After Tech World and Consumer Electronics Show, you’ll be drooling over PCs.
All: *laughs*
Patrick: You knock yourself out and go to that. I’m not going to Vegas.
Final thoughts
So, let’s wrap up. Last thing, it was a culinary delight, let’s just say that. We had a phenomenal couple of meals there. So, what was your highlight when it comes to the food, because these trips, you know, I mean, you gotta go someplace and eat well. And we went someplace and ate well. So, what was your favorite part of either of the dinners?
Angela: Oh boy, squirrel fish far and away.
Patrick: Squirrel fish was really good.
Angela: Wow.
Patrick: Yeah.
Angela: Wow, that’s all I can say, blown away.
Ben: For me, lobster and grits cannot be beat anywhere, no matter how it’s made and it was excellent as it was prepared.
Angela: Not even the tomahawk steak. I’m a little bit shocked.
Ben: Tomahawk steak was great, but lobster and grits, it’s a different tier for me.
Patrick: The bourbon tasting of three bourbons and two ryes, that was fantastic. Although I have to say the lobster and grits was good. There was no cheese in it, which I really liked. I thought it was very good. Peking duck was great. The squirrel fish though, squirrel fish was just insane.
Angela: And it was gorgeous.
Patrick: And it was gorgeous. I feel like you can ask Haley if there’s a way to put a picture of the squirrel fish along with this episode. So, Ben, Angela, thank you so much. We will revisit this again probably next year, if not sooner. I don’t know what else Lenovo’s got in store for us this year, but as they roll out new stuff, we’ll chat again. Thank you.
TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms
Angela: Thanks.
Ben: Thank you.
Patrick: Tune in next week for another episode of TBR Talks. Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.
Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us, and see you next week.
Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.
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https://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/lenovos-2026-ai-strategy-giac-2025-key-takeaways-cover-scaled.jpg25602560TBRhttps://tbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/TBR-Insight-Center-Logo.pngTBR2025-11-15 15:02:492025-11-15 15:02:52Lenovo’s 2026 AI Strategy: GIAC 2025 Key Takeaways
How accurate were TBR’s 2025 predictions for the IT infrastructure market and digital transformation efforts? In this episode of “TBR Talks,” TBR IT Infrastructure Principal Analyst Angela Lambert and TBR Digital Transformation Principal Analyst Boz Hristov share how they and their teams look at the future of their respective IT market segments.
A mix of retrospective and forward-looking thoughts about 2026 and beyond, this episode offers insights into what the team got right in their predictions for 2025 and what they anticipate will come next. AI servers, unified data, AI services, strategy consulting and how AI is impacting the services business model are all topics on the table.
Prediction checks:
• Did infrastructure vendors’ focus shift from cloud to AI?
• Did digital transformation come roaring back?
• Did infrastructure vendors gain relevance in the AI partner ecosystem?
• Did the companies that made the right bets on ecosystems outpace the competition?
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy
Revisiting TBR’s 2025 Predictions: What We Got Right (and Wrong) About IT Infrastructure and Digital Transformation
TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors.
I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be revisiting 2025 Infrastructure, Ecosystems, and Digital Transformation predictions with Angela Lambert, Principal Analyst for TBR’s IT Infrastructure and Devices practice, and Boz Hristov, Principal Analyst for TBR’s Digital Transformation practice.
Prediction check: did infrastructure vendors’ focus shift from cloud to AI?
Angela and Boz, thank you very much for coming back to TBR Talks. This is our- do you want to say that, you know, you’re happy to be here?
Angela Lambert, TBR Principal Analyst: I’m thrilled to be here.
Bozhidar Hristov, TBR Principal Analyst: Always excited.
Patrick: Excellent. Oh my God, the sarcasm in everybody’s voice this afternoon as we record.
All: *laughs*
Patrick: Lovely. So, well, welcome back. We’re doing something a little different this year. We’re going to talk about predictions early, and by that, I mean the predictions we made at this time last year as we prepare for predictions going into this year. We’re going to talk about what you said. We’re also going to talk about the process. How, as analysts that have decades plus under your belts, how your process of making predictions every year has changed, and then what you anticipate is going to change this year as you look at predictions. But what we’re going to do, we’re going to go through a couple of predictions that each of you made and talk about whether or not they panned out in 2025 and how we anticipate that’s going to change maybe for next year as well.
So, let’s start with this one. Angela, you made the prediction that infrastructure vendors focus will shift from serving cloud companies to making a massive push in enterprise AI. Did that actually happen? Did we see the shift? And were any companies significantly leading now or any left behind?
Angela: I would say yes and no on the degree to which this happened. So obviously, no one’s leaving behind the CSPs and the GPU-as-a-Service farms here in terms of wanting to serve those client bases. I do think we saw a lot of movement on preparing the enterprise for more AI adoption. I think the degree to which the enterprises themselves moved on, it was maybe slower than we would have expected. However, you know, we saw motions like storage vendors, like Pure Storage and NetApp, you know, getting much more focused on data platforms that can help enable AI. We’ve seen a lot of storage systems fine-tune for AI, and we’ve seen a lot more just general, I think, focus and participation on how enterprises can prepare their data. So, the year before was all about, you know, just flashing kind of these impressive servers around, and it got a little bit more tactical in terms of how are we actually going to help enterprises achieve these goals.
Patrick: And when the infrastructure providers talk about data with enterprises, are they talking about the cleanliness, the orchestration, the storage of that data, or are they more just talking about sort of volume and the need to provide the capacity to handle data?
Angela: I think for them right now they’re still focused on a little bit on speeds and feeds, right? Like we can get this blazing fast and get it, you know, maximize your investment in your really expensive AI servers by having storage power that can match that. But there is also this idea of unifying data that is not unified today. So that’s certainly another theme there.
Patrick: And you mentioned Pure Storage and NetApp. Were there any other infrastructure providers that sort of stood out over the course of 2025?
Angela: You know, I think HP has had a very clear enterprise focus on their AI strategy. So, I would say certainly them and interested to see how that continues to change as they’ve acquired Juniper and have kind of a unique network forward approach compared to some of the others.
Patrick: It sounds like you’re preparing for your predictions for 2026 with that.
Angela: Maybe I am.
Patrick: Maybe you are.
Prediction check: did digital transformation come roaring back?
All right, Boz. One of your predictions was that transformation comes roaring back. You said that after declaring digital transformation dead a few years ago and witnessing the past 18 months of GenAI hype centered on cost takeout and efficiency enhancing use cases, that we anticipate enterprise IT buyers and their C-suite bosses will pivot in 2025 to large-scale digital transformations and business model reinventions supported by spending on strategy consulting. Did that happen? Did we see an uptick in strategy consulting, but more importantly, did we see that pivot away from, or less concentration on cost takeout and more concentration on business model reinvention and digital transformation?
Boz: I think all the flavors happened over 2025 and continue to happen. Now, strategy consulting in its pure form continues to face headwinds. And I think all the management consultancies that have as a core capability, aside from McKinsey and BCG and Bain and the Big Four, they have realized that some of them are further along in terms of diversifying and expanding their portfolio offerings and capabilities. So, they are rarely trying to sell strategy consulting for strategy consulting’s sake. They are trying to permeate the technology element in their discussions much sooner, much faster, either as an enabling tool, now with using agents or otherwise, or they’re trying to steer the conversation that will provide them as an entry point for maybe driving systems integration services or managed services for that matter. Maybe not McKinsey, but some of the Big Four are a little bit leaning that direction.
So, while the strategy consultants- consulting revenue continue to face the headwind that I mentioned, I think the business, the digital transformation roaring back is roaring back in terms of, you know, again, depending on the client. We saw some clients that were- I would consider laggards, take the insurance industry or some of the financial services, maybe some public sector, public services clients. They were a little bit behind in terms of adopting and thinking about moving along the way from on-prem to a cloud infrastructure. They are starting to come moving a little bit faster. So, you can argue that maybe the transformation was happening more for them, for the more digitally mature enterprises, there was a little bit more of that reinvention business model, kind of a transformation, sort of like a little bit kind of different flavors, new words being used by consultancies to do exactly the same thing.
We know there’s still a large opportunity around SAP S/4 migration. So, that’s still happening, which I think a lot of the companies are capitalizing on. The other part of the roaring back for digital transformation made us starting at this point is opportunities within the mid-market. So, kind of going beyond the large enterprises. And that obviously requires a different engagement model for consultancies and the services providers than they- kind of like a delivery models. So, net-net, maybe not the full extent, but looking at the overall market performance, company performance, we saw an uptick in performance of the IT services companies compared to 2024. We are trading up into more in the low to mid-single digits as a market. Everyone is trying to move up further along, you know, more in the upper mid-single or even aspiration in double-digit growth. That double-digit growth, it will be a while before it happens, if ever. But that’s maybe for another prediction to talk about. But that’s just the way we see the market. So certainly an improvement with companies taking different approaches that are trying to capture some of the rebound in certain pockets of the market.
Patrick: So, the overall idea that digital transformation is no longer dead, the companies are trying to make this business model reinvention that they are trying to use all the tools that are available now to do revenue growth, not just cost cutting. That’s all true, yeah?
Boz: For the enterprises, again, I’ll split those in two camps, the leaders and laggards. The leaders are more looking at the revenue growth. The laggards are trying to catch up. And I think it’s the vendors are kind of victims of their own success, so to speak, because the focus, especially with blending and balancing the messaging around what GenAI can do for the companies, for the buyers, and what it does for them, and so much more focus on improving productivity has left some of them kind of hanging and not making a shift towards let’s do something more with our productivity. How are we capturing the productivity improvements from terms of dollars and budgets and how are we reinvesting back for growth? So, I think this is the biggest opportunity that I think if 2025 was a learning experience, I think I want to see more of that conversation happen in 2026. So, kind of like I’m shifting the timeline, I guess, from a growth perspective, but that’s just the nature because I think services companies are, and some buyers are tired of proof of concepts. I think that kind of just got grinded to the ground and nobody wants to talk about POCs anymore. I mean, they still are, but I think enough is enough. Everybody knows about all the use cases around, you know, customer experience and software automation and supply chain and procurement. We all heard them, right? Now it’s what do you do with that? How do you drive the business to grow?
Patrick: Right.
Boz: And I think that’s going to come on both sides. So opportunity for the vendors on the vendor side is like, can they use and can they convince the buyers that those savings that they generate as a result of using some tools, AI, GenAI, whatever flavor of AI you want to say, can they reinvest and reinvest in what’s important with them? That’s the big question. Or are they going to look at their partners? Are they going to look at their shareholders? Or they’re just going to cut back on their budgets? So, we’re going to- we shall find out.
Patrick: So, you’re previewing one of your predictions for 2026 right there.
Boz: A little bit of that, yes.
Patrick: Should have known I was walking into this trap.
Boz: *laughs*
Prediction check: did infrastructure vendors gain relevance in the AI partner ecosystem?
Patrick: All right, Angela, back to you here. Back to talking about infrastructure for a bit. One of the predictions you made was infrastructure vendors will gain relevance in AI partner ecosystems. So, you said having learned their lessons from being slow to adapt to hybrid cloud in years past, infrastructure vendors are working much more rapidly to build out partner ecosystems that will enable a wide range of AI use cases, including those leveraging public cloud. I think one of the challenges that we always have as analysts is we think that companies and vendors have learned their lessons, but maybe they haven’t. Are the infrastructure vendors still moving too slowly, or did they learn their lessons?
Angela: I think there’s certainly been lessons learned and everyone can always move more quickly. But to me, it’s really at like the DNA level of a mindset in previous times that was very focused on keeping the customer entirely in your ecosystem. And that I do think has really shifted to more of an openness, more of an acknowledgement and embracing that particularly with AI workloads, that will be an edge to data center to cloud type of arrangement. And I do think that OEMs have at least embraced, on some of those elements, deepening their public cloud partnerships, establishing new data-related partnerships that didn’t exist before. Boz and Patrick, you could probably tell me how things have changed on the services side, maybe a little less so there. I think more on the technology partnerships, yes, I do think that there’s been a whole host of new partnerships established this year, but maybe you two would have seen different perspectives depending on the partnerships you’re looking at.
Patrick: Boz, you go first on that, and then I’ll weigh in.
Boz: Different partners, different ecosystems. I think it’s, there’s two parts of it, the way we’ve seen it. It’s one is the expansion and grow, well, I guess there’s different kind of phases. One is growing the, kind of the, within the ecosystem that you currently have, can you do more with your existing partners, and now it’s looking at expanding your ecosystem with, you know, if you are services providers, who else can help me? I mean, you mentioned the data side, you know, the Snowflakes, the Databricks of the world; those are obviously partners that are becoming ever more important, but then you look at the next phase. So now we look at OpenAI and Palantir and Anthropic and all these companies are kind of becoming mainstream names and kind of like household names when it comes to AI and agentic AI. I think we’re going to see more of that. And we’ve seen some of the vendors being a little bit more aggressive in their relationship and trying to kind of build a beachhead in those, and investing in developing resources and skill and certifications and really trying to go to market together, either specific industries or just a kind of like a horizontal functional area.
The other thing from a partner ecosystem is the expansion of the ecosystem from a two-dimensional to three- and multi-dimensional relationship. That’s the other part of the equation where we keep seeing and hearing about how there’s more opportunity for services companies to be positioned more as an orchestrator and bringing together, you know, if it’s EY bringing Dell and NVIDIA and Microsoft and SAP together in one mix, right, for the customer. So, I think there’s an opportunity for that kind of a relationship. We have been discussing probably for the better part of the last two years at least, if not more than that, for that multi-party alliance construct. It’s challenging when you’re talking about at the enterprise white level, but it certainly has a strong use cases application when it comes to specific line of business, fewer disruption, very specific, deep knowledge and function and industry specialization that can be applied. Usually that’s where the budgets are, then the line of business, that’s where it starts. So, you got to position it the right way that you are the preferred partner with XYZ sub-partners and you kind of go kind of that GC approach and it both back down now. It’s easier said for us then down for the partners because you got to think about the commercials, the accountability, the execution and all these other things that come along with it. But those are the couple of areas that we’ve seen the ecosystem evolving.
Patrick: I think too to this specific point, how well do services companies and consultancies, IT services companies, consultancies partner with infrastructure providers? I think part of it is that we’ve seen the IT services companies and consultancies expand their view of what their ecosystem is. I mean, five, six, seven years ago, it used to be your ecosystem was the cloud vendors, your ISVs, the SAPs of the world, and then you were really out there if you included like a university.
Boz: Right.
Patrick: Or if you thought about academics and NGOs in your ecosystem, well, you had an expansive view of the world. That is finally starting to change. And I think the IT services companies and the consultancies are recognizing that there is an opportunity to talk to someone different at their client by bringing in an infrastructure partner. The challenge still remains, Boz, exactly what you said around the commercials of it. And honestly, the how do you tell the difference between, I’m guessing you can’t tell the difference between the Big Four firms, Angela, and we cannot tell the difference between the infrastructure providers.
Angela: *laughs*
Patrick: And that has to change at those companies themselves, not just here at TBR.
Prediction check: did the companies that made the right bets on ecosystems outpace competition?
And Boz, that actually teed up perfectly the last prediction that we’ll talk about today. And that was, you said the most successful IT services companies and consultancies will be the ones that partner best. You said, further, those companies and firms needed to demonstrate differentiation to their enterprise clients and critically their technology ecosystem partners. Exactly what we were just saying. Some could, some couldn’t. In 2025, the IT services vendors and consultancies that make the right strategic bets on the best fit ecosystem partners will outpace peers. So, who did and who didn’t? And then maybe more importantly, other than just naming names, did the strategies that you thought would work best for those companies actually turn out to be the things that they needed to do?
Boz: I’d say companies should continue to test, they have some best practices, no doubt. I mean, we’ve seen, if you kinda- the three layer approach that we’ve seen the most consistent across the vendors is leadership alignment, kind of like seeing the vision and aligning with what the priorities are. The second one is around co-development in terms of portfolio investment and skills and just trying to really go as close as possible and make sure you have the right people, the right portfolio that supports that vision. And the kind of foundational layer, which without it, I think the first two are really not going to go much further, is around knowledge management. So that’s kind of the three-legged stool on the successful partner strategy. And that knowledge management is what’s separating some of the more successful vendors than others. But again, it’s really important, like how deep you go on the first two, because that will enable and force you to do a better knowledge management and how you educate your partners, how do you ensure you have the sales enablement to mean- and how they are equipped with and they can tell your story as good as you can tell yours. So, I think this is where rubber meets the road kind of thing and we’ve seen and we constantly get questions from our clients and a lot of them come from within the ecosystem about from technology side, from services vendors and vice versa. How can we go better together, right? What do we, what should we do about, you know, gaining so-and-so’s attention, right? So, how- that’s just the kind of a constant, how can we force, you know, how can we make sure that an SI sells more of our infrastructure and how can we maybe get on the infrastructure provider’s radar? So, if we are services provider maybe on the BPO side and try to go upstream and go into the IT side of it. So, it goes both ways. So, I think this is kind of like where we’ve seen some of the success.
Probably some of the more successful ones that we’ve seen and we measure that are some of the top, the kind of the more larger SIs, I would say the, like I said, the Deloitte’s, the Accenture’s of the world, the Capgemini’s of the world. We’ve seen definitely a really strong progress from KPMG as well as one of the firms that has really done really good progress when it comes to how they manage the ecosystem. EY certainly has placed some strong bets on a select few vendors that is really investing deep along the way. Some changes for the better on the IBM side as well, because it’s trying to kind of pivot away from that big blue first kind of mentality. Still some work to do, but we’ve seen some good feedback.
Overall, just to kind of fall back on our data and research for a moment, from our Voice of the Partner research when we survey partners, what they think of each other and kind of satisfaction, pretty much all the service providers have strong satisfaction scores from their cloud and software partners as well as the OEM partners. Some have more of a neutral view on each other, but overall positive sentiment. But we do see, like I said, some of those few names that have made some really good progress, both on the financial side, the performance side, as well as just the perception that it’s evolving, it’s actually making and compelling others to get attached to that two-dimensional ecosystem, right? So, I mentioned Deloitte, you know, really strong relationship with AWS, and now Snowflake is trying to go along that side as well. I mean, it’s just kind of going kind of three-way set up. EY I mentioned with Dell and NVIDIA, and then you know Microsoft, so there’s that. That’s what’s, these are kind of qualitative KPIs in a way that’s measuring success, but there’s a few examples that come to mind.
Patrick: Yeah, and I think just thinking about all the research that we’ve done over the last year around the ecosystem and not only the Voice of the Partner, but all the different ecosystem reports. And then I know our cloud team has a new report out now looking at the ecosystem very specifically from the hyperscaler angle. I think that’s where we’re able to now, because the prediction was the most successful IT services companies and consultancies will be the ones that partner best. And what the hell is best?
Boz: Right.
Patrick: So, I think now we’ve actually got, to your point, a lot more quantitative analysis behind what exactly best means.
Boz: Yep.
The predictions process and how AI changes and doesn’t change it
Patrick: So excellent. Let’s pivot here now to not giving predictions for 2026. We’ll do that later in another podcast, but instead looking at how you go about making predictions, the thought process, the research that you do before you sit down and say, okay, this is what I’m predicting for the coming year. And then importantly now to think about how artificial intelligence will or won’t change your process, influence your process, be incorporated into your process. With sort of the idea that artificial intelligence by its nature is, you know, GenAI is more backwards looking. It’s pulling from the past to make a prediction about the future. Whereas what, and you tell me in your process, you’re not just relying on the information that’s in a large language model in your head. You’re relying on more than that. And so, if you could maybe talk a little bit about how that process works and then how you anticipate a change, or maybe don’t anticipate a change this year. Who wants to go first?
Angela: I’ll give a crack at it.
Patrick: Alright.
Angela: So, step one, you make a huge coffee.
All: *laughs*
Angela: Well, I think to me, there’s a couple components to the time of year when, you know, it’s time for the TBR analysts to start making their predictions. First and foremost, you know of course, our teams, right? So, it’s getting together with the team, talking about where we’re at now with prevailing market trends like we would in any given quarter, but also looking at market signals. We look at the comparison of what we’ve learned throughout the year in attending vendor events, what they’ve been saying at all of their big customer events, reading between the lines on the quarterly transcripts, and financial performance. So, we’re looking at the messaging of vendors in the market, but we’re trying to compare that against what we see from customers and importantly, what we’ve seen from actual performance financially, where really the rubber meets the road. So, we love to discuss all those things as a team and bring out our most skeptical of opinions as we do that.
Patrick: And then do you think, do you anticipate incorporating any of our in-house AI tools into your effort this year? Or does it shape, or are you reluctant to, or how do you feel about that part of it?
Angela: I will really look forward to having tools now that can look back across everything we’ve written, published in the past year or longer and kind of query topics against that, you know. And what are the most common things that our team talked about this year? How did that compare to what we’ve seen? And going forward, what’s that going to look like? So, I think it’s going to help us a lot in terms of identifying maybe what trends have been talked about the most and what we should assess going forward. So, that’s definitely one way I’d do it. How about you, Boz?
Boz: 100%, I was just listening to you and thinking, yes, number one, internal knowledge management. You know, that’s the key. I kind of wrapped up the alliances part with it, but that’s the foundation for everything in the professional services, it’s not just professional service, but the process is a critical element. And so that’s the internal part. The external part is the signals, right? And the signals come from multiple sources that we go around and collect. Probably another external source could be just the geopolitical side of the house, understanding the macro trends as well. So, kind of including those into our perspectives and considering as we are thinking about, you know, what moves and what shakes the market, essentially, right? The skeptical view, I love it because you know me, I try to put my skeptical hat on as much as possible, as often as I can. You know, I may not be the most favorite opinion sometimes among some of the clients, but some do appreciate it. So just the way it goes. And that’s, I think, that’s what some clients do appreciate, coming that way. And it’s, because everyone can read the news these days.
Patrick: Yeah.
Boz: And ChatGPT can read even faster than you can sometimes, and not sometimes, but all the time these days, right? It can kind of like scan it and give you the summary of what the news is. So, we really are trying to bring in- and really trying to elevate and fall back on our proprietary data models. I think that’s a key part that as we build the predictions, as we look into what we have in-house and thinking about all the qualitative, we want to make sure our quantitative database also supports those hypotheses. And kind of go back and forth, not just- you can start with a hypothesis and look at the data, or you can look at the data and then build an opinion on that.
Patrick: Right.
Boz: So, you can go both ways, because you can- this is the beauty of the human brain, right? You can, you know, take multiple angles and interpretations versus to your point about the AI, I’m not sure- that may not do that, maybe a few years down the road, but that’s what you ask them to do, right? It’s a linear way of doing it versus the human brain can kind of react a little faster sometimes and take a different approach, a more creative-
Patrick: Right.
Boz: Creativity is still a little bit stronger in my opinion.
Patrick: I think so too. And one thing I’ve done the last couple of years in preparing to do predictions and adding my two cents in is anytime I go to an event, and oftentimes when we get briefings, whether over the phone or live, I take notes by hand. And always at events, someone will say something and I’ll put a big star next to it, or they’ll say something that will make me think of a question, and I’ll mark that very clearly in my notebook. Honestly, 9 times out of 10, that doesn’t make it into print. It just, it doesn’t.
Boz: Yeah.
Patrick: So, then I have to go back in the prediction time of the year and look, and it’s easy for me to flip through the notebook. And anytime I see that star, the big question, the big bold writing, that- all that stuff doesn’t exist anywhere else. There’s no way for it to be scraped. That’s where some of that creativity comes in.
Final thoughts
So, I want to wrap up with two predictions from each of you. I know this isn’t the predictions episode, but we’re going to do predictions anyway. The first one is easy and the second one is easy. The first one, and neither one of them do you need to give me a reason. Let me just say that. You need to give me one name for each one of them. And I don’t need a reason behind any of it. And I’m not going to give you a whole lot of time to answer. It’s got to be quick. So I’ll go, Angela, you’ll get the first one first, and then Boz, you’ll get it, and then Boz, and then Angela. So, in 2026, which company are you going to write the most special reports about? Angela.
Angela: Intel.
Patrick: Boz.
Boz: Palantir.
Patrick: Palantir. Wow, interesting choice. All right, in 2026, Boz, you go first, and then Angela. Who’s going to win the World Cup? Boz.
Boz: Spain.
Angela: My gosh, I have no idea what to say.
Patrick: Well throw a country out there.
Angela: Ooh, Portugal?
Patrick: The US is hosting, and Mexico will be in it, Canada will be in it, Portugal will probably be in it.
Angela: Okay.
Patrick: You have colleagues in this building that love Greece, you know? Just saying.
Angela: All right. Seems like a great bet.
Patrick: So, who do you want to go with? Don’t say Greece, I don’t think they’re going to make it.
Angela: I’ll say US.
Patrick: All right, US, fantastic. Excellent. Thank you very much, both of you, for coming on. Really appreciate this, this is always a lot of fun. And we’ll do another one of these in a little while, we’ll talk probably early January, talk about your predictions for 2026. Thanks.
Angela: Thank you.
Boz: Thank you.
Patrick: Next week I’ll be speaking with Angela Lambert and Ben Carbonneau about Lenovo GIAC 2025. Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.
Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, principal analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.
T
TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms
Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.
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