TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe's Top Tech Firms

Memory Supply Worries Amid PC Market Refresh Initiatives

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In this episode of “TBR Talks,” Principal Analyst Angela Lambert and Senior Analyst Ben Carbonneau discuss how supply chain dynamics are shaping the emerging AI PC market. They explore the reasons behind slower-than-expected AI PC adoption and the shift in memory production capacity.

Additionally, the pair looks at how specific companies, including Dell Technologies, HP Inc. and Lenovo, are adjusting to current market conditions and delves into the biggest supply chain unknowns for 2026. 
 
Episode highlights:

• The two major factors converging in the PC hardware space
• Memory capacity and supply chain disruption
• The ways specific companies are adjusting to current market conditions

 
“I think the big question is, what will happen next in that supply chain that the AI servers are consuming too much of, I guess. Will it be storage, for example, or other, just other components that, you know, a computer’s just a tiny server or vice versa, right? So, it’s a lot of the same suppliers and manufacturers. I think that while we’re grappling with memory now, I wouldn’t say that we’re going to go back to normal immediately after that. We’ll probably just be on the lookout for what’s the next domino to fall here is probably the most likely scenario,” said Lambert.

 
Listen and learn with TBR Talks!
 

Submit your Key Intelligence Questions for Patrick and his guests
 
Connect with Patrick on LinkedIn

 
Learn more about TBR at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://tbri.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠

 
TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.
Edited by Haley Demers
Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay
Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy

‘TBR Talks’ on Demand — Memory Supply Worries Amid PC Market Refresh Initiatives

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TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors. 

I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about supply chain threatening the rise of AI PC with Angela Lambert, Principal Analyst for TBR’s IT Infrastructure Practice, and Ben Carbonneau, Senior Analyst for TBR’s IT Infrastructure Practice. 

Two major factors converging in the PC hardware space

Angela and Ben, welcome back to TBR Talks. And today we wanted to go into, dive deeper into a special report that you both co-authored recently, just published, about the supply chain, but really the state of the AI PC market. Angela, you want to sort of set it up? What was the special report all about?

Angela Lambert, TBR Principal Analyst: Sure, I’d love to. So, the special report we published is, it’s really, as you said, a combination of two major factors converging in the PC hardware space. And I think maybe it’ll help if I take us back in time about a year. So, over the past year, there was a lot of expectation and anticipation of large growth in the PC market. Microsoft is ending support for Windows 10. That’s supposed to urge a lot of commercial customers to refresh all of their PC fleets, drive a lot of growth. At the same time, there’s the concept of AI PC that entered the market. They have arguably more capability, more efficiency, and kind of new hardware that has yet to be fully understood and adopted. 

What we saw last year was that the PC market did grow fairly well for a very mature market, you know, in the lower mid-single digits. But it definitely was not up to the expectation of what the PC vendors and what other vendors like Microsoft, Intel, and AMD really probably wanted to see because they’ve really been investing significantly in the AI PC. But unfortunately, I think what we saw in engaging with the market is that the value proposition fell flat in concert with tariffs happening, which increased the prices people were paying. And the AI PC, it’s more sophisticated. There’s a more sophisticated hardware, the CPU, NPU in there, it costs more money. And vendors were really relying on the concept of future proofing. Not necessarily that people are ready to use AI today, but you should buy these devices because once they are ready, they’re going to need them. So that message did not really take off at the same time that all of these other kind of cost implications were coming into play. 

So that kind of leads us into 2026, where vendors have made significant investments in the next generation of AI PC. These investments have been going on over the last few years, really leading up to this, but they’ve been really working hard to make this a success. And I think in many ways, AI PC needs to be a success for them. But at the same time now, we saw tariffs last year. We’re seeing a really significant upheaval in the hardware market at large because of huge shifts in memory availability and pricing.

Patrick: Before we get to that supply chain part of it, the things that you described that prevented the surge that was expected in the PC market were things that are more of a delaying factor than a diminishing factor. So, the high price, the slower adoption of AI PC. Is your sense that while 2025 may not have been the banner year that was expected in PC sales, that maybe 2026 will be? Or are you about to tell me that all the supply chain problems mean that we’re looking to ’27, ’28, ’29 before we see that surge in growth around PC sales?

Angela: Yeah, I think for a few reasons, the surge in growth will be delayed. And there’s- yeah, part of it is the delay because of cost, but COVID changed so many behaviors and patterns in so many ways. And I think buying PCs is another thing that has changed. It really hasn’t come back to normal. Before COVID, it was so predictable, every 3 years, a company was going to refresh their hardware. They’re on a three-year four-year cadence. That’s kind of changed. People are not necessarily committed to that. Maybe they had huge inventories they were digesting, but it’s still just really not clear to the market at large when or if the kind of normal cycle that used to exist will ever come back.

Memory capacity and supply chain disruption

Patrick: Right, and so speaking of COVID, supply chains were also massively disrupted through the pandemic. And is that sort of now playing out again, Ben? And as we look at the chips side of this equation.

Ben Carbonneau, TBR Senior Analyst: I think so. I think during the pandemic, there was a significant tailwind, which was an increase in the total addressable market for PC. And I don’t see that falling. I think what happened there was that there just wound up being a lot more PCs per household because there’s so many people working and learning from home. So, I don’t think that number decreases. But to what Angela was saying, I think the rate at which those PCs refresh is the big thing that’s changed. And I think that’s due some to the cycle and delay of purchases, but also due to the hardware just becoming such that it doesn’t need to be replaced on that same three-year cycle that it needed to be before. 

So, with memory now, what I think I’m seeing or what we’re seeing in the market, I know Lenovo just reported earnings and they were saying that memory costs in the last quarter of 2025 increased 50% year-over-year. And I think that’s- those kind of huge increases are still occurring on a quarterly basis. And what’s happening there is really not a decrease in the manufacturing capacity for the memory that’s going into PCs. It’s more of a reallocation of new capacity. So if you’re a memory manufacturer, which the big three would be Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, instead of allocating more production capacity to PC memory, like they would in the past when there would be a PC cycle like this, they’re actually allocating that new production capacity to high bandwidth memory. And that’s going to support more of the AI infrastructure workloads. So that’s a really big, I think it’s a big thing to understand- I think, is that the supply of PC memory isn’t going down from where it was last year. It’s just not growing at the same rate that demand for PCs would be. And as a result, PC prices will go up. And we think that refreshes will be even further delayed.

Will AI PCs take over the market?

Patrick: And do you think sort of the AI PC is something that’s just going to simply take over the entire market that you’re not going to see a refresh of a, I mean, the equivalent of a dumb PC at this point, I mean?

Ben: I think- so I think at some point, the AI PC will take over the market. I think our forecast for the Windows AI PC market by 2030 looks something like a little over 80% of that Windows PCs sold in that period will be AI PCs. I think there’ll be certain markets that are slower to adopt AI PCs. I think we call a dumb PC a traditional PC, but more traditional PCs certainly in emerging markets.

Patrick: When you say markets, do you mean specific kinds of clients, enterprise versus small/ medium? Or do you mean geos or do you mean industries? What do you mean by markets?

Ben: So, I think it’s a little bit of both. I think we see that certain industries, I think it comes down to price sensitivity. So certain industries are more price sensitive than others. For example, retail is always going to be more price sensitive. They’ve always had a longer refresh cycle than a mature enterprise in, say, North America. And then in emerging markets, so Latin America, I think we see, and then outside of China and APAC, there is more price sensitivity. So, in those markets, I would see slower adoption of the AI PC. However, something that Angela was saying, we know that these silicon vendors are working on a third generation, at least for the x86 guys, so Intel and AMD, are working on their third generation AI PC chips. So, as the older generations of AI PC chips become older, they also become cheaper to manufacture, all else equal. And that makes those AI PCs based on those chips more accessible.

Patrick: That’s crazy that we can already be talking about the traditional, older, dumber versions of AI PCs. We haven’t even gotten to AI PCs in everybody’s hands. That’s nuts.

Ben: It is, yeah. I think adoption has really been- it hasn’t been what the OEMs wanted it to be, but it has been, I mean, fairly strong. I know Lenovo was talking about 30% of their unit sales being AI PCs in most of the quarters throughout 2025. So, we do see AI PCs being adopted. But I think, again, what Angela was saying, it’s less on the capabilities and the need for those features today and more about future-proofing your device fleet for what is to come.

How specific companies are adjusting in the current market

Patrick: Right, yeah, that makes a ton of sense. And so, you mentioned Lenovo a couple times. Angela, are there other companies, again, TBR, we look at the companies. So, are there other companies in the special report or more broadly in the space that you’re keeping an eye on for the changes that they may have to go through in order to adjust to what we’ve been talking about?

Angela: Absolutely. So, we, of course, look- the report does show a little bit of our data on the big three, right? So, Dell, HP Inc., and Lenovo. We also look at the chip vendors as well. So, Ben hinted at this when he said the X86 guys, but what he’s really saying there is, there’s more change even within the chip space here than there’s been in probably the whole time I’ve been covering the devices market. So, Qualcomm is a relatively new entrant in this space. They are long time servers of the smartphone chip market, but they’ve partnered with Microsoft to try to bring some new things into this space on an ARM architecture. So, there is, besides just the PC vendors trying to aggressively, you know, win and maintain share as they always do amongst each other. There’s also some changes in terms of the competition of what the longtime leader Intel has seen in this space, not just from AMD, who’s been their primary competition, but kind of a new category as well. And this is, it’s definitely a big time for Intel. They are taking on a new strategy of bringing their PC chip manufacturing to the US. And it’s really important for them for that new production to be successful. So, there’s a lot of dynamics at play behind the scenes here.

Patrick: So, a couple of years ago, Intel was definitely struggling. And were sort of the company that everyone will point to for how to go wrong in the chip space and the manufacturing space and just the tech space all the way around. Has it changed for them? I mean, are we looking, is Intel well positioned for the changes that you’re expecting across the market?

Ben: I think their strategy is well positioned. And I think the stock price kind of tells the story there and what we’ve seen in the change over the last year in the price. Where really Intel, I think, when they came out with their foundry business, which was essentially making chips for external customers, I think that didn’t accelerate in the way that they wanted it to. And it was really misses on certain process nodes and being delayed. But I think right now, we’ve kind of pivoted more back to, I wouldn’t say completely back to the old Intel ways, but more to kind of favoring the production of chips to be put in their own devices as a proof point to external customers. And I think that was a really strong move to what Angela was saying earlier. Their 18A process is what the compute node in their third generation AI PC processor will be based on. So, all that manufacturing coming to the US I think is really big. And I think that will draw in external customers. And I think that’s why you’ve seen kind of, they’ve iterated, they’ve called it IDM 1.0, IDM 2.0. They’ve talked about these strategies in their earnings calls. But I think this strategy is probably the strongest, kind of going back to Intel’s roots. being able to actually execute on the 18A process, which I think they’ve proved that they have. And I think this third generation of AI PC chip will further demonstrate that. So, I think it looks good for Intel.

The biggest supply chain unknowns

Patrick: That’s good. Well, that’s encouraging. And earlier you said that when talking about the supply side of things, it’s not like the physical supply is in trouble. It’s more the demand is shifting in terms of where it’s going. And then Angela, you mentioned tariffs as one of the complications in the supply chain discussion. Going forward in 2026, are there- is tariffs the biggest unknown when it comes to what can happen in the supply chain? Or are there other things that we should be anticipating? Whether it’s manufacturing in the US not standing up fast enough, whether it’s demand falling off a cliff, like what are the other things that might disrupt the supply chain? Or is tariffs sort of the biggest unknown at the moment?

Angela: I’d say tariffs, I think that buyers and companies have wrapped their heads around the tariffs to the extent that they can at this point. And it was a lot of uncertainty at this time last year within the PC space. Now, with the just skyrocketing price of memory, I think that’s the biggest thing we’ll be seeing over the next few months through this entire year. Maybe not better next year either. But I think what, to me, the question would be is, how will the AI server market continue to impact PC? Because really, this is all being driven by that insane demand for AI servers. So, memory is kind of the first major domino to fall here, where now, as Ben was saying, if the component pricing goes up 50% for Lenovo, that’s an expensive piece of the build. That makes very material increases to the end customer. I think the big question is, what will happen next in that supply chain that the AI servers are consuming too much of, I guess. Will it be like storage, for example, or other, just other components that, you know, a computer’s just a tiny server or vice versa, right?

Patrick: Right.

Angela: So, it’s a lot of the same suppliers and manufacturers. So, I think that while we’re grappling with memory now, I wouldn’t say that we’re going to go back to normal immediately after that. We’ll probably just be on the lookout for what’s the next domino to fall here is probably the most likely scenario.

The case for AI PC may come from security benefits

Patrick: Right. That’s not- and so as encouraging as what you said about Intel was, that’s the opposite of encouraging if we’re thinking about the dominoes that are going to fall. Just to wrap it up with something personal. So, are either of you using an AI-enabled PC right now? Have you tested some, played around with some? When do you think you are going to get your hands on one full-time?

Angela: Oh, boy. We have been lucky enough to see some really cool devices in our travels. We haven’t been lucky enough to receive them here at the office, but it has been very cool to see some of those devices. And yeah, I certainly look forward to it and getting that to myself.

Patrick: Is AI slowing down your current PC? Is that part of the way that you’ll get a faster refresh? Because in order to use all the AI tools that are out there, you actually need a PC that can handle it. I’m saying that’s a very loaded question because I know my own laptop is slowing down.

Angela: Right, we’re all we’re all hungry for the new laptop.

Patrick: Yes.

Angela: You know, it depends on your use case. Admittedly, a lot of what I do with AI today is cloud driven. I think that’s true for most people. But what the devices can also provide and what I think Ben and I feel is going to be the super strong AI PC use case is going to be security. It’s not necessarily going to be, you know, you could be a data scientist who has some models on your computer, you’re running your private AI-driven analysis that’s compute intensive. For most of us office workers, we’re going to see it in kind of behind the scenes performance enhancements, but security is such a big threat, just the unwitting incidents that happen with end users. That’s a huge threat to every company. I think we’re going to see over the next couple of years some really impressive use cases come out of that, where that, I think, might be the thing that turns the tides on selling companies. It’s not maybe going to be a crazy change in productivity. It’s going to be a really great advancement in protecting the company’s data.

Patrick: And so does sovereign AI and sovereign data come into this as well, where, because one of the things we’re seeing increasingly is this idea that data needs to stay in country, that data needs to stay particularly as to go back to tariffs, but almost all the companies we’ve been talking about are US companies. There’s a sense in Europe and even in Asia that they need to keep the data there and keep AI there. So, do AI PCs play into that as well, where that’s part of the equation, especially from the security standpoint?

Ben: I think AI PCs play into that a little bit. I think, though, what we’ve seen, at least with sovereign AI, or what I’ve seen, is that there’s been some impressive private cloud solutions that have been built for companies, and just by leveraging your private cloud server cluster, you’re gonna get a lot more compute out of that than you would from any NPU for on-device AI, so I think I guess the wrap would be that the AI PC, I see the NPU on the AI PC SoC really driving improvements kind of behind the scenes to what Angela was saying. Maybe some security integrations from Microsoft along the way that get pushed into operating system updates. But really more of a, right now, I think a battery life savings situation. And for sovereign AI and data privacy, I really see that mostly being driven by the architecture of private cloud solutions.

Final thoughts

Patrick: Excellent. So, let’s end with a prediction. How soon until the three of us are sitting here doing an episode of TBR Talks that you guys are looking at your AI PCs in your laps as we’re sitting here? How soon is that coming?

Angela: I’m going to optimistically say, let’s say six months from now.

Patrick: All right, mid 2026. Okay, Ben?

Ben: Mid 2026 would be nice. I don’t know. I guess it depends on the-

Angela: We’ll see how those prices go up.

Ben: Yeah, we’ll see the prices. We’ll see what our IT administrator does. I would love to be working on an AI PC right now.

Patrick: All right. Well, I’ll make sure he listens to the podcast. Excellent. Thank you, Angela. Thank you, Ben. It’s a lot of fun. Thanks. 

Angela: Thanks, Patrick. 

Ben: Thank you. 

Patrick: Tune in next week for another episode of TBR Talks. Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week. 

Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.

TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms

Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.

“TBR Talks” is available on all major podcast platforms. Subscribe today!

TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe's Top Tech Firms

2026 Predictions: Federal IT Services

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Senior Analyst John Caucis and Analyst James Wichert explore how a turbulent 2025 — marked by budget uncertainty, a prolonged government shutdown and shifting federal priorities — is setting the stage for a more stable, but structurally different, federal IT market.

Learn why 2026 is likely to bring stabilization rather than a full rebound, with defense, intelligence and national security-related spending remaining resilient while civilian agencies take longer to normalize procurement cycles.

Additionally, the pair will look at what will matter most in 2026: accelerating partnership activity, deeper engagement with commercial technology providers, and AI-led modernization as a core differentiator for federal systems integrators

Episode highlights:

• The new normal, post-government shutdown

• Prioritizing defense over civilian or health opportunities

• TBR’s federal IT services portfolio focuses for 2026

“Well, it’s been a heck of a ride in 2025 to be sure. So, I think one of the easiest predictions is that things are going to stabilize finally. However, what we’re keeping an eye on is the timeline of that stabilization, especially now that we factor in the 43-day government shutdown that kicked off federal fiscal ‘26 in October. What we’re hearing, what we’re observing, the vendors that we track, what they’re saying is that some agencies may not get back to normal in terms of procurement, in terms of funding cycles, in terms of the cadence of funding until late March or even the second calendar quarter of next year. I think it’s going to be concentrated more in the civilian sector than the defense and intel,” said Caucis.

Listen and learn with TBR Talks!

Submit your Key Intelligence Questions for Patrick and his guests

Connect with Patrick on LinkedIn

Learn more about TBR at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://tbri.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠

TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.

Edited by Haley Demers

Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay

Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy

2026 Predictions: Federal IT Services

TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors. 

I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about our 2026 federal IT services predictions with John Caucis, Senior Analyst for TBR’s Federal IT Services Practice, and James Wichert, Analyst for TBR’s Federal IT Services Practice. 

Predictions: The new normal, post-government shutdown

I’m here with John and James to talk about the Federal IT Systems Integrators, the group of companies that they cover as part of their research here at TBR. So, what we want to talk about today, John and James, is what your prediction is for 2026. What do you see coming? We’ll cover that first, and then I’d really love to hear what you want to dive deep into. What are the trends? What particular company? What are you seeing in the market that you know in 2026 is going to take up a lot of your time? So, John, why don’t you go first? Give us a prediction for 2026.

John Caucis, TBR Senior Analyst: Well, it’s been a heck of a ride in 2025 to be sure. So, I think one of the easiest predictions is that things are going to stabilize finally. However, what we’re keeping an eye on is the timeline of that stabilization, especially now that we factor in the 43-day government shutdown that kicked off federal fiscal ’26 in October. What we’re hearing, what we’re observing, the vendors that we track, what they’re saying is that some agencies may not get back to normal in terms of procurement, in terms of funding cycles, in terms of the cadence of funding until late March or even the second calendar quarter of next year. I think it’s going to be concentrated more in the civilian sector than the defense and intel. 

And that kind of leads me to my next prediction, which is that defense, intel, and in the civil market, the overlap, the national security overlap in the civil market, border security, law enforcement, those sectors are going to remain robust. We’re seeing that as we tabulate the current data for the third calendar quarter benchmark, which will be out in a couple of weeks. I expect to see that happening in the fourth quarter as well as we then move into federal fiscal ’26. So, we’re keeping our eye on how long is it going to take before things return to normal and what’s that new normal going to look like.

Patrick: Right, but a new normal, but you’re anticipating it’s going to be a more stable kind of year for 2026 with respect to federal IT services spend and the rest?

John: Well, I don’t think it can be disrupted any more than it has been. So, things, what goes down, you know, must come up at some point.

Patrick: Yup.

John: However, what’s important to keep in mind is that the underlying demand for digital modernization remains intact. It has endured throughout this process. And the drivers of the disruption in the market in 2025 are actually pushing the market to accelerate AI-led digital transformation. And that’s what we expect to see. That’s going to be an area that we’re also keeping an eye on in 2026.

Prediction: Prioritizing defense over civilian or health opportunities

Patrick: All right, absolutely. And so, James, what do you think is going to happen next year?

James Wichert, TBR Analyst: So, I mean, looking back to 2025, there was a lot of disruption around the federal civilian market. And a lot of that entailed, you know, more programmatic work, more consulting-oriented engagements. And the Trump administration’s skinny budget proposal for federal fiscal year 2026 calls for non-defense spending to be slashed by, it’s like north of 20%. Simultaneously, defense spending, like John mentioned, it’s going to increase. It could be north of $1 trillion this year. And what I would say is we’re seeing- what we saw during 2025, and we’re going to keep seeing it happen in 2026, is more vendors expanding their portfolio into the defense base to capture those additional opportunities. So, for example, take Maximus. Maximus is a company that just historically has been more in the federal civilian space, working in federal health, but they’ve been appointing more leaders with defense backgrounds. And they’ve been finding ways to align their portfolio of cybersecurity and IT solutions with defense agencies’ needs rather than just purely civilian agencies. 

Patrick: Right.

James: And it’s been fairly successful thus far. They’ve gone from zero meaningful defense wins in like the last few years to all of a sudden just two in the last few months with the US Air Force that are genuinely interesting and could evolve into something more. Now in the same breath, you know, civilian spending is not going to go away. I just see vendors being more strategic, you know, jockeying for certain opportunities. So, you know, the Department of Government Efficiency may be gone as like a standalone entity in that wave of contract terminations. But elements of its mission still remain within the federal document, streamlining operations, combating fraud, waste, and abuse. So you wind up with vendors like GDIT or CGI developing solutions that can streamline those operations, increase productivity, leverage all these emerging technologies that are in demand, like AI, but you have to fully do that, there’s still a ton of work to be done.

Patrick: Right.

James: And yeah, they have a lot of outdated infrastructure that needs to be modernized. And with their headcounts being rapidly reduced during the next year or so, they need to invest in IT. So, there’s still plenty of opportunities for IT vendors.

Patrick: Right, and it’s fascinating that they would be- it’s not fascinating that the companies would be moving to where the money is. That totally makes sense. It seems to me though that if they already have two wins, just talking about Maximus. So, they’re introducing Maximus and others then a new competitiveness to the market that wasn’t maybe there yesterday or last year or the year before. So that’s a good thing, I would think, overall.

John: Yeah, I think to your point, there’s still going to be plenty of headroom for growth in the defense sector and national security, border security, and the intelligence space. And vendors like Maximus that we haven’t traditionally seen go after that market are looking at their portfolios. They’re seeing the differentiation there. And they’re looking for ways to repurpose. And this is kind of the opposite of what we’ve seen over the last few years, where the growth in the civil market prompted several of these integrators that we track to take a second look at their defense IT capabilities and find ways to repurpose them for civilian applications. We’re now seeing that have been flipped on its head. And competitors like Maximus and others, you know, what can we do? How can we take some of the technologies, the capabilities, the platforms that we built for the civilian space and reimagine them for use in the defense sector?

Federal IT services portfolio focuses for 2026

Patrick: All right, excellent. And let’s, and maybe that’s one of the trends, but let’s pivot now to what are you going to individually, personally, professionally dive deeper into in 2026? What’s one of the companies or the issues or the trends or the technology or whatever it might be that you’re looking forward to sinking your teeth into this coming year? James, we’ll go to you first.

James: Thanks. So, I would say during 2025, there was this significant ramp up in partnership activity. And that was something I was following with General Dynamics Information Technology. It was a company, a business segment that really didn’t announce that many partnerships. And then all of a sudden there was just this wave of them. They just kept coming one after another. And then eventually their leadership team disclosed this past summer that, this is all intentional, this is all part of their strategy to enhance the digital accelerators they’re working on and to align their portfolio with the Trump administration’s needs. 

Patrick: Right.

James: I think they’re kind of the perfect example in the market of what we’ve been seeing for all these vendors, where the most successful ones are ramping up their partnership activity. They’re increasingly leaning on commercial technology companies. We’ve even seen the federal government itself lean on commercial technology companies lately with Detachment 201 and the Genesis mission. So I think you’re going to keep seeing vendors that want to compete, that want to really make a difference and capture on all these like shifting priorities that the government’s looking to spend on, they’re going to ramp up their partnership activity and that’s going to continue into 2026.

Patrick: That’s perfect because that’s, I mean, as you know, our ecosystem intelligence reports have become the hottest selling thing we have. But really, truly, it has opened up a lot of opportunities for our clients to see their world in a slightly different way. And then that was being pushed by what was happening in the commercial sector. But hearing that it’s happening and going to be happening even more in the fed space is fantastic. John, what about you?

John: Well, I kind of have to dovetail on James’ point about partnerships, but then kind of drill down one level. The kinds of partnerships, the kinds of companies that we’ve observed the bulk of partnership activity over the last year, and that’s in the AI space, which is not surprising. I think AI-led modernization is really going to be the mantra in federal IT in the current fiscal year, which is fiscal ’26, as well as in fiscal ’27. We have seen a significant uptick in the amount of partnership activity, expanding existing collaborations with people like Palantir, Shield AI, and the like, as well as forging new collaborations with these companies. They’re out in front. While we don’t track the Palantirs of the world explicitly, we are kind of tracking them, softly tracking them based on their activity with companies like Booz Allen Hamilton, who vastly, they might have been the most active company during 2025 in terms of tying up, shoring up their collaboration with Palantir. But in the AI space, especially, and that’s something overall that we’re going to be keeping an eye on, and we’re going to be trying to inject more AI-focused research, TBR insights, TBR opinions around the AI topic as relates to the federal systems integrators in 2026.

Bets for most discussed company in 2026 

Patrick: Excellent. So, let’s wrap this up with, we’re going to be sitting here in a year. So, in December of 2026, give me the name of one company and maybe two reasons why you’ve talked about that company more than any other company over the course of 2026. So, I’m not saying who’s going to grow the most. I’m not saying who’s going to fall apart. I’m just saying what’s the company that in December of 2026, you need to look back and say, we couldn’t stop talking about, John.

John: Booz Alan Hamilton. The company that got hit hardest within the sphere that we track, the slice of the market that we’re following. Their civil business is expected to be down over 20% when their fiscal year wraps up on March 31st of ’26. We’re going to find out just how smart they are, whether they’re going to parlay all of that expertise. They’ve been in the market for over a century. As I just mentioned, they’ve gotten out in front of the AI wave by shoring up partnerships with Palantir and the like. They also have a very- they just tripled the funding that they’re allocating to Booz Allen Ventures, their internal joint venture C Capital Group. So, a year from now, they may not have recaptured those double-digit growth rates. They just came off of a three-year stretch of double-digit top-line growth. I was fully expecting to see their revenue hit at $11 or $12 billion. That’s not going to happen, unfortunately. But how quickly are they going to get back on track? I think underpinning that is going to be certainly how quickly can they affect a rebound in their civil business? Because their defense business is still strong and they do have the largest, as I understand it, over a billion or billion and a half in AI specific revenue coming from the defense sector. So, they’re one of the leaders there. That’s going to be a growth engine for them. But how are they going to rebound? And not just them specifically, but we’ve observed this, James can certainly talk about the impact of the civil slowdown on his companies, but how are companies going to recapture, get their mojo back in the civil space?

Patrick: Yeah, fantastic. And that’s such a- it’s always been a fascinating company and to hear where they are right now and to say this is a pivotal year for them. I love the way he framed it that, you know, we’re going to find out how smart they really are. So, all right, James, what do you got?

James: I kind of wanted to say Maximus, but I’ve already, like, talked about what they’ve been doing in the defense base. So, I’m just going to cave and give it to Peraton. I think Peraton’s just an interesting story. Recently, they secured the FAA’s north of $10 billion contract to be their main integrator. And Peraton had a strange year. It was a lot of difficulties. I thought they would go public initially, but then with all the leadership changes they were doing with Stu Shea out the door, I figured that was in the cards. And then, you know, that didn’t happen with the waves of just all of a sudden changes, the Department of Government efficiency, all that. It just didn’t happen. There was some disruptions to their business this year, but that went with the FAA. It’s very, very promising for them. And I’m curious to see where they go through 2026.

Patrick: So, do you think this will be the year they go public? Or do you think it will be December 2026, we’ll be saying so they didn’t do it again.

James: That’s a great question. 

Patrick: We’ll come back in December 2026. 

James: Yeah *laughs* I was so much more confident last year that they would go public and then everything else happened, just made it chaotic.

Final thoughts

Patrick: Excellent. All right. Thank you, gentlemen. Appreciate it. 

John: Thank you. 

James: Thank you.

Patrick: We’ll be taking a break over the winter, and we’ll be back with season 5 later in 2026. 

Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week. 

Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.

TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms

Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.

“TBR Talks” is available on all major podcast platforms. Subscribe today!

TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe's Top Tech Firms

2026 Predictions: Managed Services

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Digital Transformation Principal Analyst Bozhidar Hristov unpacks TBR’s predictions for the next three to five years of change in the IT services market. The conversation explores a fundamental shift underway in managed services: from a cost-optimization and labor-arbitrage model to a growth-oriented, insight-driven entry point for consulting, integration and modernization services. Boz explains why managed services are increasingly becoming a “door opener” rather than a back-end support function and examines why this pivot has been difficult for many consultancies to execute.

Boz concludes with a peek at TBR’s forward-looking research agenda for 2026 and beyond, covering changes to commercial models, the decline of time-and-materials pricing, evolving ecosystem dynamics, and how service providers must rethink partner strategies as digital labor becomes a core part of managed services delivery.

Episode highlights:

• Leading with managed services to drive other business

• Changing staffing pyramids

• Changing pricing models

“We’re starting to hear vendors starting to think about investments into the whole notion of agent-managed services as well, because, you can say, why do you care about managed services when agent, agentic AI will likely be substituting a lot of the human-enabled delivery? I think there’ll be parts of that, but I think there’ll be still the last mile of the support where it will be needed from a human perspective, and that human-in-the-loop kind of involvement will remain critical. And that’s why I think some of those vendors will use that as they try to pivot their business models; they try to adjust their business model moving forward because this is where the trust comes into place. Where you are able to answer the CFO’s questions, the chief system information [officer’s], the CISO questions and so forth. … I think 2026, we’re going to hear more examples of it, but I think this is the model of the future, at least for the next three to five years,” said Hristov.

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TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.

Edited by Haley Demers

Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay

Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy

2026 Predictions: Telecom

TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors. 

I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about our 2026 Managed Services Predictions with Boz Hristov, Principal Analyst for TBR’s Digital Transformation Practice. 

Leading with managed services to drive other business

I’m here with Boz Hristov, whose portfolio covers digital transformation, ecosystems, and professional services. So, we want to talk about 2026 in two different ways. First predictions and then what you are excited to be researching next year. So, let’s start with predictions first. Out of all the predictions that you were involved with coming up with this year, as we end 2025, what is the one that you’re most excited about, you’re most confident about? Maybe the one you’re afraid might actually come true in 2026.

Bozhidar Hristov, TBR Principal Analyst: *laughs* Yeah, predictions are a tricky one. Thanks for having me. So I think looking at the way the market has evolved in the last three years, and maybe what’s coming, not just in 26, but maybe looking even beyond that kind of a one year, but maybe into the three-year horizon as well, because I feel like we are starting to make some pivots into the next three-year, three to five year kind of a change in the marketplace. I think the biggest shift that’s going to start kind of paving the way for the next three years is the role of managed services and how the companies that have been investing in managed services position it. As historically we know the outsourcing, labor arbitrage has been enabled, a lot of the low-cost providers to drive a significant amount of business, but it’s been a support mechanism for the large enterprises, has enabled some businesses to come around and to make a name for themselves. And it has been, again, being kind of like, okay, a cost driver, cost optimization driver. 

I think what we’re going to start seeing is how companies are looking at and considering managed services and the capabilities that they have been investing in both the skills and the tools in the last three years to use them as a business growth driver and be not just kind of essentially pivoting from the low-cost delivery model and factory model to more of a business growth model for those organizations. And looking in to understand how supporting the client’s environments will provide them with the insights that are needed for potentially new consulting opportunities, for better process improvement opportunities, and just trying to think about how they can service the clients better. I mean, one can argue and say, well, that’s essentially managed services what it has been, right? But I think the change here is that vendors will look into managed services as a door opener, not as a door closer, essentially. So, it’s in a way, they will lead with managed services to drive consulting. They will lead with the discussion around process optimization, which essentially, in a way, it’s almost like a Trojan horse for them, it allows them to increase that stickiness, to learn the client environments. I think some of the vendors like the India-based outsourcing companies have a very strong foothold and a starting point. We’ve seen some of the consultancies like Deloitte and Accenture trying to go in that direction and kind of change the paradigm. We know others like, you know, some of the other- the rest of the Big Four also have been investing in managed services. I don’t think they’re going to go that far that way to lead with managed services, but I think the investment profile suggests that they’ll try to definitely lean more heavily than they have in the past. 

So, I think this is kind of the big change, is kind of changing the paradigm and lead with managed services to drive consulting, lead with managed services to drive integration services, modernization services, and so forth. That on itself is not going to be an overnight phenomenon. I think we are in a transition year that we’re going to start seeing that model evolve and be a version of it potentially in the next three years, five years. 

We’re starting to hear vendors starting to think about investments into the whole notion of agent-managed services as well, because, you can say, why do you care about managed services when agent, agentic AI will likely be substituting a lot of the human-enabled delivery? I think there’ll be parts of that, but I think there’ll be still the last mile of the support where it will be needed from a human perspective, and that human-in-the-loop kind of involvement will remain critical. And that’s why I think some of those vendors will use that as they try to pivot their business models, they try to adjust their business model moving forward because this is where the trust comes into place. Where you are able to answer the CFO’s questions, the Chief System Information, the CISO questions and so forth. So, this is, I think that’s what we’re going to- we’re starting to hear about it right now. I think 2026, we’re going to hear more examples of it, but I think this is the model of the future, at least for the next three to five years.

Patrick: So, two quick questions and an observation. So, the two questions, quick questions. When you talk about managed services and growth, you’re seeing the managed services revenue growth continue up. And then what you’re talking about is sort of a sliver or a piece of it directly tied- a piece of consulting revenue directly tied to those managed services opportunities that’s going to grow alongside it and faster, yes?

Boz: Yes. It’s exactly- it’s both, actually. I think it’s, you know, managed services, yes, will continue to grow, but it’s exactly that. It will create opportunities for the management consultancies to drive up and to expand, you know, what has been a struggling market in the last couple of years for consultancies. And it’s a way of them to deliver value, to deliver outcomes, you know, and to be a little bit more tangible in their offerings because we know consulting and outcomes can be sometimes a little bit like up for interpretation. And when the consultants and the services providers talk about outcomes, in this case, I think we’ll require them to be a little bit more concrete as a way to demonstrate the value rather than just saying, you are going to be getting some kind of an outcome, but very kind of a wishy-washy.

Why hasn’t this model happened before?

Patrick: Right, so, then a quick question on that, and sort of maybe you’re answering it right there, but it makes so much sense for managed services to be an entree to consulting. Why hasn’t it happened? Or more importantly, what are the things that will prevent some companies from being able to- some IT services companies and consultancies from being able to execute on that model?

Boz: Yeah, I’ll probably start with a second here. I think what’s going to prevent is a lot of it is going to boil down to internal challenges, because especially consulting firms, they are known for, that’s their brand is to lead with consulting, right? So, it’s very hard for take BCG or anybody else like, you know, has been known to start with managed services, even some of the Big Four firms, as much as they’ve been investing in managed services, it’s going to be much harder for them to, say, we are now managed service providers first then consultants.

Patrick: So, BCG starts with consulting, so it’ll be hard for them to start with managed services.

Boz: To make that change. It’s a branding headwind. It is an internal kind of a stakeholder change, you know, change management headwind. And I think that has been probably one of the key reasons why it has not happened. I think the other part is that it will be hard for those companies, some of those companies, to convince buyers that they actually are good at managed services, or they have the right price point for managed services.

Patrick: Right.

Boz: I think that’s part of it as well. Just like it’s hard for those companies to convince buyers that they can develop and sell software, which we know it’s-

Patrick: We know that story really well.

Boz: We know that story well, and we know it’s coming around again now with GenAI, agentic AI. So, I think this is kind of like the, it’s- we’re kind of circling right back to what we’ve been saying for years. It’s staying within your own swim lane probably is your best strategy. And when you need to partner first rather than trying to build yourself. Not even, I’ll say partner, build, buy, try to maybe change that kind of the sequence of those things. But yeah, that’s how I see it.

Topics of interest for 2026 portfolio: The changing staffing pyramids and pricing models

Patrick: So, what you just said leads to an observation for me that I think is part of the next question, the big question I have for you. And what I think you’ve been saying is that the last couple of years have been just so disruptive with GenAI first and then agentic AI. And just we’ve had two or three years where the change is happening so fast. But now we’re about to go into a three to five year stretch where change is going to happen more slowly and some of the more strategic decisions and some of the more, the decisions like around how you change to a managed service led business model are going to play out in a longer horizon. 

Boz: Yup.

Patrick: So if that’s the case and you said, right, so I’m going to take it as it is, what are, when you look out next year, 2026, but even three years, what are some of the issues that you’re looking forward to diving into deeper. Where do you want to go deeper with some of the research?

Boz: Yeah, I think if we start looking into that horizon of the managed services led, kind of a business services, business model, essentially, for most of the companies, there’s a couple of things that will certainly, for us, will be on the horizon from a research perspective and going deeper immediately. I would say understanding the changes of the staffing model of the companies. Understanding the mix of the staffing model between humans and digital FTEs, understanding how that’s going to impact the P&L of the companies that we track closely. I mean, we know those companies’ P&L fairly well. We understand the ins and outs of the P&L in terms of hiring, understand the cost of services structure, and whatnot. Now when you start adding the digital FTE, I think that’s going to be a big element of change because when it comes to managed services, you’re also trying to, at the same time, trying to introduce new technology as an enabling to those managed services, how do you account for that as part of your talent pyramid? How do you account for that as part of your pricing model? How do you account for that when it comes to your profitability levels and predictability levels? So, I think these are some of the questions we’ll be going after to better understand the implications and what are the variables that are shaping in a digital FTE build out. I mean, you know, we know what a human costs, you know, it looks like, right? 

Patrick: Right.

Boz: Salary, benefits, insurance. But then we think about digital FTE, like what are some of the variables that need to be accounted for and how do you blend that with the humans? And then most importantly, how do you monetize that? How do you price it to the client so that client understands what they’re paying for? Because that’s another thing that clients are increasingly looking for, enterprises are increasingly looking for is transparency. So, I think for us, that will keep us definitely very busy understanding the changes of the staffing pyramid to account for the inclusion of digital FTE. That’s going to be a big factor. Changes in the commercial models of the organizations we track closely now will be another factor for us to, from a research perspective, understanding who’s really making a pivot in there. Because if we look at the times and materials being kind of the predominant commercial model today, probably it’s fair to say that in the next five to seven years, that times and materials, there’ll be probably a fraction. Maybe if we’re at 90% today, probably going to be less than 10% in the next five or seven years. 

Patrick: Right.

Boz: And that’s understanding those incremental changes, that’s going to require to make those companies who certainly will keep us busy. And then last but not least is also, all these changes cannot occur in a vacuum. They occur in the ecosystem, right? So, understand the implications of your partners and communication and setting up the right strategy as you’re going to market. I mean, those digital FTEs, as I mentioned, they can be viewed as a piece of software, they are a piece of software, but your partners may see them as being a threat to their business model as well. So how do you then build that in a way that your partners understand the value proposition of a digital FT versus not being seen as a threat to their core business? Those agents, it’s a very fluid word, agents, right? 

Patrick: Right.

Boz: So, I think you have to be very careful how you message your evolving value proposition within your partner ecosystem as well.

Patrick: That’s fantastic, and in a minimum guaranteed, we’re going to see sometime in the next year to three years where the benchmark, one of the benchmarks you work on, the Global Delivery Benchmark, will have to become the Global and Digital Delivery Benchmark, right?

Boz: Very likely. I mean, understanding the changes in the composition, it’s going to be a big part of it. Understanding those, like I said, digital FTEs are becoming an element. We are keeping an ear out, essentially, we have some anecdotal examples at this moment, but again, it’s more of a time horizon. It’s not an overnight change, but it’s beginning to kind of like everyone’s accounting for those changes.

Final thoughts

Patrick: Excellent. Thanks, Boz.

Boz: Thank you.

Patrick: Next week, I’ll be speaking with Ben Carbonneau and Angela Lambert about 2026 Devices and Infrastructure predictions. 

Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week. 

Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us, and see you next week.

TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms

Join TBR Principal Analyst Patrick Heffernan weekly for conversations on disruptions in the broader technology ecosystem and answers to key intelligence questions TBR analysts hear from executives and business unit leaders among top IT professional services firms, IT vendors, and telecom vendors and operators.

“TBR Talks” is available on all major podcast platforms. Subscribe today!

TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe's Top Tech Firms

2026 Predictions: Cloud & Software

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Are we approaching the end of traditional SaaS as AI-native architectures and agentic platforms take center stage?

TBR Cloud & Software Senior Analyst Alex Demeule discusses which SaaS incumbents are best positioned to execute a true hard pivot toward AI, highlighting how workforce restructuring, sales realignment and platform modernization at vendors like Salesforce, SAP and Microsoft reveal early signs of strategic transformation. Additionally, this conversation explores the growing tension between general-purpose large language models and specialized small language models, digging into the economics, power constraints, and architectural trade-offs that will define enterprise-grade AI applications.

Episode highlights:

• Which vendors are positioned well for the pivot from traditional SaaS to AI strategies

• The partial displacement of large language models

• Key expectations for SAP, Microsoft and Salesforce

“We’re seeing these partnerships form where you’re bringing in domain expertise from the outside and then working on building niche models. And these niche models are going to be specialized. And they’re not going to be as capable from a general-purpose standpoint, but when you focus the training data and you focus how you’re building these models around the workflow, you’re able to get use-case-level capability that is on par with the largest models out there,” said Demeule.

Listen and learn with TBR Talks!

Submit your Key Intelligence Questions for Patrick and his guests

Connect with Patrick on LinkedIn

Learn more about TBR at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://tbri.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠

TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.

Edited by Haley Demers

Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay

Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy

2026 Predictions: Cloud & Software

TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors. 

I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about 2026 SaaS predictions with Alex Demeule, Senior Analyst for TBR’s Cloud and Software Practice. 

Who is positioned well for a hard pivot from traditional SaaS to AI strategies

Alex, thanks very much for coming in today, and you have the predictions document out there. There’s a lot in it. Congratulations. You were able to do 3 full predictions. In the services side, we only came up with two. 

Alex Demeule, TBR Senior Analyst: *laughs*

Patrick: So, you’re ahead of us on that to start. But I want to pull out a couple of things, and I had to write them down when I was reading it because it’s really, you get deep very quickly. The overall concept was, are we at the death of software as a service. That was the overall concept. But you don’t have to answer that question necessarily, but one thing you did write was about a hard pivot from traditional SaaS to AI strategies. And that would be the companies that are traditionally been in that space making that hard pivot. So, it immediately made me curious, like which of the companies that you cover are well positioned to do a hard pivot because hard pivots are by definition hard.

Alex: Yeah, absolutely. And you know, the topic that we went after with this report is such a fun one. And it’s one that we’ve been asked so many times this year because everyone’s trying to get a lay of the land on where are we today? What does this look like? You know, we can see these sort of threads kind of coming through that, these threads that are disrupting the SaaS model and making the whole idea of a UI and an application seem like, you know, how many years in the future does that still exist? Like if we are able to continue on this path of innovation where agents get better, how does that role diminish, and what does that timeline look like? And that’s one of those questions that I think everybody is scratching their head wondering, because we live in this gray world right now where we’re kind of at the precipice of the possibility, but we’re not there yet. And we’re kind of watching what these innovative model developers and the software leaders and the technology leaders, rather, that are leading this charge, watching what they’re doing. And obviously, they’re always going to be marketing with their best foot forward. And so, getting it to terms of what that timeline looks like, it’s a real challenge. And I don’t think there’s a person out there that can give you the perfect answer. And so, with this document, we really just tried to be practical and try to look at, where are we today? What are the challenges that the AI market is facing? And what are the sort of solutions that are on the horizon for those solutions? And that’ll probably ultimately give us an idea of sort of where this whole thing is going. 

You asked about the hard pivot, and obviously the hard pivot, like you said, is something that not a lot of vendors can do. I think that when we look at the SaaS incumbents, it’s something that we’ve seen in a bunch of different places. We went through this whole workforce rationalization for a lot of the vendors that I cover, SAP, Salesforce, where we saw headcount declining, large 10% of workforce layoffs. And then on the tail end of that, we saw rehiring come in right away. And all that rehiring was going into AI sales, AI product. 

Patrick: Right.

Alex: And so, we really have seen a pretty big workforce transformation for a lot of these software incumbents. Salesforce and SAP are the two that jump off the page for me, given just they’re software pure plays. Microsoft, obviously, you have that massive infrastructure, so we didn’t really see that sort of headcount recalibration. 

Patrick: Right.

Alex: We still see some, but it wasn’t necessarily as pronounced as it was when you looked at the numbers for SAP and Salesforce. So, a lot of these big players are looking at their headcount and at their resources and saying, okay, this is what it looked like. We’re going towards AI and that has to be a strategic priority. What do we have to do within our resource base to be prepared to go after that? And that’s something that has been, you know, to different degrees, kind of ubiquitous. 

Patrick: Okay.

Alex: SAP and Salesforce, they really went all in on it. And Salesforce just had their earnings call last night. One of the things that they did was they declined their sales headcount dramatically just two years ago, going through an operational efficiency program, but now it’s up 20% year to year. And so, we’ve seen their sales force go from being cut dramatically. And at that time, some people were talking about like, oh, they’re going to try to lean on their own AI capabilities to sort of augment that massive decline in sales headcount. But that just was not what played out. What we really saw was them getting rid of a lot of sales headcount that were trained and sort of focused on the more traditional software lines, but then hiring back dramatically in the AI sphere and to focus on AI.

Patrick: Right, so when you talk about a hard pivot coming, in some ways it’s the companies that have already begun that pivot that are best positioned to be able to do that. And I understand the struggle, or I understand where the question’s coming from about when will the software as a service model sort of fade away is partly because you don’t want to be caught still using that commercial model, still using that business model when the rest of the world has moved on to something else. 

Alex: Mmhm

Patrick: And being able to predict that, of course, is, as you kind of noted, kind of impossible. 

Partial displacement of large language models

So, one thing I also want to bring up another thing from what you wrote, that was about proprietary models will become critical differentiators for enterprise-grade AI applications. I read that, and I think you’re talking about displacing large language models. If proprietary models will become critical differentiators for enterprise-grade AI apps, is that displacement?

Alex: So, in my eyes, it is partially displacement. I don’t want to undersell the role of LLMs in the long-term AI opportunity. But one of the things that I think has gotten lost too often in this conversation is the role of diversified architectures when it comes to language models and AI models. You need to look, and we all need to look at some serious constraints that the AI market has. The two that jump off the page to me, cost and power need. 

Patrick: Yeah.

Alex: And the cost and the power need is directly related to the number of parameter counts that a model has. And so, as we push general purpose large language models with hundreds and hundreds of billions of parameters, we’re setting ourselves up into a position where you have really a master of none that is extremely expensive to run. 

Patrick: Right.

Alex: And so, the way around that, and something that, this isn’t- in SLM strategy, it’s not new. Like, we’re talking about stuff that’s been sort of in the works for Salesforce, Microsoft, for years now. And it’s been sort of quieter. We hear so much about their partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic because obviously those firms are sort of pushing the bleeding edge of general-purpose large language models. But Microsoft, they launched their Phi-3 family of SLMs over a year ago. And ever since that launch, they have been adding and adding new partners that they’re developing specific industry SLMs with on top of that. 

Patrick: Right.

Alex: Salesforce, they released their xLAM, which they’re calling large action models, over a year ago. They’re working with Workday to be able to sort of build around that foundation for an HR type model. And so, we’re seeing these partnerships form where you’re bringing in domain expertise from the outside and then working on building niche models. And these niche models are going to be specialized. And they’re not going to be as capable from a general-purpose standpoint, but when you focus the training data, and you focus how you’re building these models around the workflow, you’re able to get use case level capability that is on par with the largest models out there. So, it’s about focusing on specific use cases. The flip side of that is that it’s a much more fragmented development. Like each- instead of focusing on building one model, it’s just something that has to happen across a multitude of engagements, each getting that SLM to a production quality AI model. So, there is a time disadvantage in some ways. In other ways, it requires a lot of partnership from Microsoft and Salesforce to bring in data that they might not necessarily have. When I think of Salesforce, they were great and have access to CRM data, but they’re really positioning themselves to be more than just a CRM agentic platform. They’re kind of trying to butt up against Microsoft specifically as being sort of an overarching agentic platform where it’s capable of dealing and working with HR and ERP and other software areas in addition to where their domain expertise is. But that’s all areas that they have to go out and partner with. 

So, to me, in my eyes, the long term will incorporate large language models and small language models. And when I’ve talked to CTOs too, from software vendors, this is kind of the general architecture that they’re sort of looking for in the future, where an LLM is sort of sitting at the top of like the orchestration layer of an agentic platform, but that large language model is handing off specific tasks to SLM backed. So it’s the orchestration being handled by the powerful generalist model, but then the specific tasks, the work is being done at the SLM layer.

Patrick: Okay.

Alex: And so, the software vendors have been kind of the most forthcoming with that sort of SLM development, and it’s an area that I think that is going to create a lot of value, really be very important to lowering the cost of running these models, and a big part of them sort of cementing themselves within this AI opportunity.

Strong PaaS portfolios and credible SLM roadmaps: SAP, Microsoft and Salesforce

Patrick: And that’s a perfect segue to another question that I had, again, based on what you wrote. And this time I couldn’t even write it in my notebook, it’s too long. But I have to read it out loud because it’s super important. Platform services, data clouds, and integration layers have become the entry point for AI adoption. And this reorientation favors vendors with strong PaaS portfolios and credible SLM roadmaps, which you just touched on. So again, the first question that comes to my mind, because at TBR, we always come back to the specific companies, which are those vendors that have a strong PaaS portfolio and credible SLM roadmaps.

Alex: Well, I mentioned one already, Salesforce. You know, they’re a vendor that I would say that their past portfolio, it’s been improving over the years. I still think that they’re a little bit more immature relative to an SAP or a Microsoft, of course. Microsoft and what they’ve done with Fabric, I view as a pretty big move for them, and they’ve done a really great job of scaling that very quickly. Salesforce, we do see that traction early on. You’re foreseeing triple digit year-to-year increases for Data Cloud and Agentforce. And that’s great signs, but it’s kind of off of a small base. And so, Salesforce has done a lot of work in sort of improving that portfolio and that customer traction is starting. But I would still put them at a, sort of an immature positioning, but something that I think that they’ve shown early strength and that I think that they can get to that point. 

SAP is a vendor that I think has been doing this well for a really long time, going all the way back to BTP and the attach rates that they saw with BTP on RISE migrations and S/4HANA cloud migrations, and being able to leverage that success into Signavio and LeanIX into sort of building these process automation integration workflows that are bringing their SaaS applications together and enabling sort of the groundwork for an agentic system that you can layer on top of that. I think SAP has done a great job at the PaaS layer. I would say that on the AI side of things, SAP has been a little bit weaker than Salesforce. You know, we’ve seen a lot of talk around Joule, but when we talk to customers around how valuable it is, that’s still an area where the jury is still out. When we talk to the, sort of the channel on Salesforce, I tend to hear a lot more bullish sentiment around what they’re doing with Agentforce relative to what SAP is doing with Joule and their other AI capabilities.

Partnership positioning: Microsoft, Salesforce and SAP

Patrick: Yeah. And then, because I’m always interested in the ecosystem play on this, are there certain companies that you cover that you think are probably better positioned to take advantage of all the changes that you’ve been talking about because of their strengths in partnering and their ability to partner better across the ecosystem.

Alex: Yeah, I mean, we cover- when I look at my coverage, it’s the biggest software vendors in the market. And by virtue of being the biggest, you’re also going to have- you’re going to present the most opportunity to partners, and that opportunity is going to drive partner engagement. Microsoft, I mentioned before, they have been tacking on new partners for their Phi family of industry models very consistently ever since they announced that initiative. And so the engagement has been great there. Salesforce has seen great engagement around partners building on Agentforce. SAP obviously has great partner engagement, especially when it comes to migrating to the cloud. As far as partner engagement on AI, again, this kind of comes back to sort of what we’ve heard on the ground level. It’s just less pronounced than what I’ve been seeing from Salesforce and Microsoft. But it’s still kind of a case where they’re preoccupied with getting to the cloud, where making this shift towards AI almost feels harder because they’re focused on that broader modernization story still. I think that they’re gonna- they’re kind of forced based on the market into sort of promoting their AI a lot and we continue to hear more and see them doing stuff. And so, they’re certainly working towards having a mature AI strategy, but that’s still something that I think that relative to Microsoft and Salesforce, I would put them at a little bit of a weakness. But again, we’re talking about the largest vendors, and there’s going to be partner engagement for a lot of these, or all these agentic platforms that are coming out.

Patrick: Right. And I think you touched on something there, maybe inadvertently, but the boom in marketing budgets, because everybody has to talk about how great they are at AI now. So, if you’re not marketing yourself around AI, you’re out of a job. 

Looking at next year’s Cloud & Software portfolio

So last question, as we go into 2026, and you think about the companies that you cover, and you think about the portfolio, the Cloud and Software portfolio more broadly, are there certain issues you think you’re going to be tackling in the coming year, whether that’s new coverage or maybe more importantly, what are some of the- this is a question I want to really go sink my teeth into?

Alex: I mean, the big challenge for me right now is starting to quantify what’s happening within the finance- so right now we get loose estimates around revenue generation related to AI from all these vendors. 

Patrick: Right.

Alex: But it’s never a clear view. And so, being able to dig into, okay, what is the monetization success? That’s something that is going to be on my mind in 2026. You know, Salesforce, they just had a good quarter in terms of their guidance going forward, and so they’re kind of at that point where they’re saying AI revenue is on the horizon now, and so does that come through? Is that real? And being able to put numbers to that, that’s going to be a big challenge in 2026.

Patrick: And that’ll be super important because we’ve heard now for a couple of years, just the massive numbers around, we’re investing a billion, 2 billion, 3 billion, 5 billion in AI. So now we need to see where’s the revenue that’s going to come out the other side.

Alex: Yeah. And that’s a massive question. I mean, it’s a whole other topic to go into sort of the investment cycle and especially on the hyperscaler side, which we’re talking about cloud software today so, outside the scope. But yeah, we got to see the money now. It’s very important.

Patrick: All right. We got to see the money now. That’s a great way to put it. And we will come back in season five and we’ll talk about exactly that question. Alex, thank you so much.

Alex: Appreciate it. Thank you.

Final thoughts 

Patrick: Next week, I’ll be speaking with Allan Krans and Angela Lambert about our 2026 Alliances predictions. 

Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week. 

Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us, and see you next week.

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TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe's Top Tech Firms

‘TBR Talks’ Retrospective: What We Learned in 2025

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As we close out 2025, “TBR Talks” host Patrick Heffernan and producer and TBR Marketing Coordinator & Account Executive Haley Demers sit down for a candid, end-of-year retrospective and a sneak peek at what listeners can expect in the new year. Additionally, the pair unpack the podcast’s growth, with nearly half of this season’s conversations featuring voices from outside TBR, and share a behind-the-scenes view of the show. They also discuss how those external perspectives have broadened the scope of the dialogue; how the show has evolved as listeners began to proactively reach out, asking to participate; and the unexpected value that emerged when technology-focused discussions turned personal.

Episode highlights:

• Memorable conversations about the intersection of humanity and technology

• Surprising conversations about career paths and entry points

• Bringing new ideas and ways of thinking to the table

• Bringing in more generational views and company-centric views in 2026

Listen and learn with TBR Talks!

Submit your Key Intelligence Questions for Patrick and his guests

Connect with Patrick on LinkedIn

Learn more about TBR at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://tbri.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠

TBR Talks is produced by Technology Business Research, Inc.

Edited by Haley Demers

Music by Burty Sounds via Pixabay

Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy

‘TBR Talks’ Retrospective: What We Learned in 2025

Haley Demers, Marketing Coordinator and TBR Talks Producer: Hello, Patrick.

Patrick: Hello Haley.

Haley: It’s fun to be on this side of the computer, of the podcast today. We’re sitting here because as you know, we’re approaching the end of the year. It’s time for planning and reflecting and we’re not exempt from that here at TBR Talks.

Patrick: Absolutely, yeah. We’ve spent a lot of time doing predictions and stuff, and now it’s time to do a little retrospective, a little thinking back.

Haley: Yes, for sure. So, you know, cut to us being here today, looking back, reflecting on the past few years, specifically a really cool aspect of our most recent season. We’ve had a lot of guests over the four seasons we’ve been doing TBR Talks, and we’ve had the most guests in an individual season this season, season four. So thought it’d be fun to sit down and talk with you about what that’s really been like.

Patrick: I also think on the subject of the guests that we’ve had, my math is probably wrong because math is hard, but I think we’ve had at least as many, if not more, folks from outside of TBR on than we have from inside of TBR. And I’m not counting like Angela twice, you know, she counts as once, for example, or Boz, but I think we’ve had more people from outside the firm, which is kind of cool.

Haley: Yeah, so on that track, I’ve got some data for you.

Patrick: Great

Haley: Since we are an analyst firm. So, since the start of 2024, we’ve produced 56 full episodes so far, four4onus episodes. This is going to be our 57th episode. And we’ve had 30 different guests total on the podcast.

Patrick: Wow, alright.

Haley: Eleven of those have been from outside of TBR. And do you want to guess how many have been this season?

Patrick: At least six, I think.

Haley: Six, yeah, you’re right on the money there. Did you expect it to be that many?

Patrick: No, and I think we’ve been lucky because people have been listening to it and then coming to us and saying, hey, we’d love to be on the podcast. And that’s been a surprise for me. And it’s been fantastic because the conversations we had this season four have been certainly more far-reaching, broader, wider than we’ve had in the past three seasons, I think.

Haley: Yeah, it’s been extremely cool to see folks who we talk with in our everyday, day-to-day, as well as folks who are listeners who come in and say, hey, I’ve got something to say, I think we’d be a good fit. Can we have a conversation and see where it takes us? That’s been a- it’s been a really cool feature of this past season.

Patrick: It’s been really fun. *laughs*

Memorable conversations about humanity and technology intersections

Haley: *laughs* So, I guess to kind of bring the retrospective here, I’ve got some, kind of, superlative questions for you.

Patrick: Sure.

Haley: So, in your role as Principal Analyst here at TBR, you talk to a lot of people. I’d say talking and writing are the two main features of your role.

Patrick: *laughs* Yes.

Haley: And you’re excellent at both of them. And here on TBR Talks, you’re talking to a lot of folks as well. So, I want to start with asking you what conversation was the most memorable from this batch of conversations this season?

Patrick: Yeah, I think one that we did midway through, and it was memorable for a couple of reasons. It was two people. It was Batia and Chris from EY’s Mobility Practice. I met them in the spring in Barcelona and spent time with them there and really got to know what EY was doing around people advisory services even deeper than I did before I got to Barcelona and had such a connection with them that I said, come on the podcast, let’s have a chat.

What I didn’t sort of realize was how what they’re doing at EY, and it came out during the podcast, it’s so personal. Like we talk about technology so much, and even in services, which is a people business, we talk about technology nonstop. And sometimes we forget that it’s the people part of it that actually is the hardest part, but it’s also probably the most rewarding part. And so to me, I sort of went back, listened to that conversation again and realized like, okay, part of why I think they were such a great two people to have on and also why I connected with them when we met in person was just how much they bring the personal experience into what they’re doing. And it’s beyond just the technology, it’s actually the people that they’re focused on. And mobility in particular and sort of living overseas, being assigned overseas and immigration and all that, were issues that I, you know, go back 30 plus years for me professionally. So, to be talking about immigration issues and to be talking about being assigned overseas and stuff like that. I can’t even do the math from 1995, when I was first posted overseas, to come back to that in 2025, that math actually should be pretty easy. But anyway, it was really, really cool. It was memorable for that because it was a really personal kind of discussion and it went beyond just technology, which was great.

Haley: Yeah, that was a great conversation to listen through and it was really, really cool how they were able to articulate the humanity parts of their role and how the technology intersects with the humanity, and how the humanity intersects with the technology. And neither of those parts would exist without the other.

Patrick: Right. And I’m glad you said the word humanity, that’s a better way to put it than just people. But yeah, absolutely.

Surprising conversations about career paths and entry points

Haley: Yeah. Wonderful. So what conversation was the most surprising for you?

Patrick: One that jumps out and there’s a few that were surprising, definitely. There’s one in my mind that I definitely want to get to by the end, but really surprising was talking to Kelly See. from Ericsson. And what was surprising about it was how she came into her role where she is now as a librarian. And that was her actual background, which she studied library sciences. Sort of, I don’t want to say she found the job in the newspaper or something, but it almost sounded a bit like that. She just sort of came into Ericsson as a librarian and grew up inside of that, had her professional career develop inside of that company. And I don’t think about the companies that we cover needing library skills, and yet she’s done so much at being there.

And Elizabeth too, and so her colleague Elizabeth Roberts at Ericsson as well, we had a conversation with her. And what was surprising there was, here’s somebody I’ve known since I got to TBR in 2013. So, I’ve known her over a decade. And there were just things about her background and things about what she’s doing now and how much her role has changed that I didn’t anticipate when we- because I met with them in Texas, and we said, hey, come on the podcast, it’ll be fun. And I had no idea what Kelly’s background was. And I had no idea how much Elizabeth’s job had changed in the, just in the last couple of years, really. So that was surprising.

Haley: Yeah, it’s fascinating listening to all of the conversations that we have, both with folks inside TBR who come on the show and folks outside of TBR, hearing about their paths, hearing about the way that they got to the role that they’re at, hearing about the different roles they’ve had in their organizations and in the various organizations to bring them to the point in their careers where we get to talk with them here is fascinating. I’m a few years out of school and something that I was always ravenous for was how people progressed through their careers, what twists and turns people took. And so, whenever we would have the chance to have a guest speaker be able to really dig into somebody’s career path and how they got to where they are, that was something that I always really valued, having the chance to connect with folks on. So that’s been a really cool aspect of being here and being able to do this show.

Patrick: Yeah, and it’s great, because it’s sort of, in a way, it’s aspirational that you can say, okay, things- people can do things you don’t expect, and people can have careers you don’t expect. And for you, just a couple of years out of college, it’s a chance to say, okay, there’s a lot of opportunity there. You’re not locked into one thing. And for me, it’s just fascinating to hear the stories.

Haley: For sure. Especially when you know and you interact with somebody in a day-to-day way, in the ways that your two roles intersect, and you don’t really get to see a bird’s eye view of what the rest of their world looks like when they’re at work. That’s been really fascinating.

Patrick: It has been. It’s been a lot of fun.

Bringing new ideas and new ways of thinking to the table

Haley: My next question is, what conversation brought the most new ideas to the table for you?

Patrick: Yeah, I was going to sort of save this one for the end, but it’s perfect now. So, we spoke with David Martínez at BCG’s Henderson Institute. That episode alone was perhaps my favorite of the whole season. I’ll go ahead and say that. And for a lot of reasons, one, it was one of those things where they reached out to us and said, hey, we want to be on the podcast. So that was kind of cool. The second, we covered just an incredible range, a tour de horizon of everything happening in consulting and technology and AI. I mean, it was just, it was the broadest conversation imaginable, in part because the guy is literally a PhD in political philosophy. He’s a philosopher. Never had a conversation with a philosopher and talking about technology at the same time. But the thing that, because your question was, what was the sort of the most, not surprising, what was it?

Haley: The most new ideas to the table.

Patrick: The most new ideas. This is- so the challenge, one of the challenges in this job as an analyst is you do the research, you do the thinking. Once you present, once you bring forth whatever it is, whether it’s through the writing or speaking with somebody, an idea, if it resonates, it tends to stick. So, you tend to- you get- I fall into the same habit of sort of repeating or saying the same ideas again and again because it resonates. So, like, okay, this must be true because when I say it, people nod and say, oh yeah, that makes complete sense or I hadn’t thought about it before. So, for years now, we’ve had a saying within the firm, or at least within my practice, that the technology is never the problem, it’s always the people. So, technology always works. Technology just does whatever you tell it to do. The people are always the reasons why technology isn’t adopted, why change management is harder, why things go off the rails, why expectations are met. And so, in some ways, that’s just been a mantra for us. The technology isn’t the problem, the people are. And when I mentioned that to David, he just took the philosopher’s view of that and sort of turned it around on me to say, you know, the technology itself, you can’t really even look at that as the yes, no, the problem, not the problem. That’s looking at the wrong way. It’s the intent that people put into the technology. So, it’s not that people are inherently the problem. It’s the intent that they’re bringing to the technology that is or isn’t the problem. So, for years, I’ve been thinking about this as very binary and very sort of black and white. And he was basically saying, you’re missing the gray. You’re not even thinking about the right way to think about this problem. And the problem is real. The problem is, you know, people eventually have to use technology, and if they don’t use it right, then that’s what causes the problem, and he was saying it’s all about intent, and I hadn’t thought of it that way. It was just such a better, cleaner, smarter, deeper way to think about this framework that we use all the time, and so I think going forward, if I catch myself saying, we say around here that technology isn’t the problem. I’m going to stop myself and say, nope, I’ve been corrected by a philosopher. That is not the right way to think about it. So that was just, it was a fun conversation. It was an amazing conversation. He dropped some Latin phrases in, which has only happened once so far. So set the bar very high for 2026.

Haley: Yeah, some challenges for some other Latin phrases to get dropped on the pod there. Yeah, the intent is such an interesting way of looking at human interaction and technology because you have the intent in creating the technology, and you also have the intent in using the technology. So that kind of disseminates the gray area even further than we perhaps originally were kind of considering.

Patrick: Yeah. Absolutely.

Bringing in more generational views and company-centric views in 2026

Haley: My last question for you today, Patrick, is what kind of guests or what kind of conversations would you love to have on the podcast for a season five? What are you kind of hoping we get in the studio, we get coming through the door? What are you excited to potentially talk about next season?

Patrick: Yeah, two things. And I’ll reflect on the people we spoke to this season as a way of sort of framing it. One, we spoke with Eric Müller from Work & Co. And he’s a guy who’s about as old as I am, or I hate to say this, perhaps older. He had a generational view of technology, of change, of marketing, of creativity, that I think sometimes I forget to tap into. It’s really easy to talk to people who are at the very cutting edge, that are new in their profession, or they’re new into technology, and sort of forget that. Because we used to, you remember Ezra used to be here, and even Ramunas before him, and Geoff Woollacott, we had people at the firm. I think I’m actually the oldest person at the firm now, which is a little frightening, but it’s also a reminder, like, look, the generational stuff is kind of important. So, I think next year it would be good to go out and find some people that can give us the longitudinal view of some of the changes that have happened in technology because there’s so much hype, there’s so much that seems to be changing all the time. And in fact, maybe things aren’t changing quite the way we think they are. So that’s probably terrible marketing for TBR Talks because I’m saying I don’t want to talk about the hype and the new stuff, but I do, I just want to put it in the context of generational changes across technology.

Haley: Yeah, and I think we have the ability to kind of dive into some of the nuance in all of the hype and big scary headlines that may be coming out. We have the opportunity here to sit and kind of dissect it a little bit more.

Patrick: Right, and I think, I mean, I just think about the people that are in this firm with us, most of them have been here a minimum of five years, and in some cases, 10 years or more. And so, we do have people in the building that we can tap into to give that generational view of technology.

The other thing I’ll bring up is I was recently with some friends of ours and a guy who’s in technology, and he said, hey, I was looking on LinkedIn, I saw you have a podcast. And so, I listened to it, and he said he listened to the NVIDIA episode and the Lenovo episode, both of those with Ben and Angela. And here’s a guy who’s in tech himself, and wanted to just hear a little bit more about those two companies. And he’s like, absolutely loved it. It was the right length, like 20 minutes.

Haley: Yeah.

Patrick: Like not too long. But it was coming at those two companies in a way that isn’t constantly reported in the news. It was a perspective that he wasn’t getting from his other news and information feeds. And so I think that’s something I want to really try to do more of in 2026 and season five, is find a way to look at the companies we cover, look at the technology and the issues that we cover in a way that really is separate from what’s out there in the news. It’s not enough to just reflect on what are the earnings. It’s not enough to reflect on what are the sort of big trends that are happening, but really bring that truly different TBR perspective to the companies that we’re looking at. And it was really encouraging to have somebody who really hadn’t listened to any of the episodes before immediately say, hey, you know, especially the NVIDIA one, he’s like, learned so much more about that company, things I hadn’t been hearing in the news. I’m like, that’s perfect. That’s what we’re trying to do here.

Haley: Yeah.

Patrick: So, it was really cool. So hopefully more longitudinal view in 2026 and more perspectives on the companies and the issues that we cover that folks don’t get from just the daily rush of information.

Haley: Yeah, love to hear it. That’s a great goal for next season.

Final thoughts

And I know you love adding in a kind of bonus question.

Patrick: *laughs* I can’t help it.

Haley: To our guests

Patrick: And I knew this was coming. I just don’t know what the question is.

Haley: Well, so you’ve been asking most guests for season four a similar question, and I don’t think you answered it. So, I’m going to turn it back around on you. So, the question is, in the age of AI, there’s a lot of thought of AI potentially taking jobs away, taking tasks away and so if you had your 10,000 hours to get really good at something specific, what would it be? What would be the skill that you would love to master, kind of at the drop of a hat?

Patrick: Well, at the drop of a hat or over 10,000 hours. 

Haley: *laughs* Take it or leave it, you know?

Patrick: From a very realistic, very personal perspective, I have a guitar from my father. I would love to actually learn how to play it.

Haley: Yeah.

Patrick: I played the bass guitar when I was in a band in high school. I played the drums through college. The whole rest of my family is very musical. I have that thing I need to learn how to play. I need to take the 10,000 hours and dedicate to that. But from a more work perspective, I do, the magical power I wish I could have is just to stop time long enough to think and to write down everything that I’m thinking. Because I find so many times, we say this in conversations and in calls with our clients, where we say, we can’t write down everything that we want to on paper. So, call us so we can talk. To some degree, what we’re saying there really is, if we had more time, we would have written this better, more concise, and more directly. And we would have been able to say what we’re really trying to say. And instead, we just, we put it out there and now we have to tell you what we really mean. I would love to just get better at saying what do we really mean.

Haley: Yeah.

Patrick: And saying it in a way so much different than this answer, which is concise and direct and people can understand right away and walk away with. So that would be my professional side. Personal side, 2026, I gotta learn how to play guitar. I got it. I gotta learn how to play it.

Haley: Love it. Can always add a little bit of music into your life.

Patrick: Yeah, well, I could record a- that should be the real goal is to record the intro and outro music for it.

Haley: That’d be really cool. Awesome. Thank you, Patrick.

Patrick: Thank you, Haley. This is a lot of fun. We’ll do it again at the end of season five.

Haley: This was great, see you then.

Patrick: Next week, I’ll be speaking with Chris Antlitz about his 2026 Telecom predictions.

Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week.

Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.

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