Deployment Services in Telecom Face Post-5G Slowdown, Shifting Market Dynamics and Growth in Fiber Expansion

Current state of deployment services in the telecom industry

With deployment services growth tied to 5G rollouts in large markets — notably India, China and the U.S. — most vendors in TBR’s Telecom Infrastructure Services Benchmark saw segment revenue decline in 3Q24 as these markets are in post-peak 5G spend territory. The pace of India’s aggressive 5G build has decelerated since 4Q23. Ericsson outperformed its closest peers due to its Cloud RAN deployment for AT&T.
 
The deployment services market faces growing headwinds, including communication service provider (CSP) consolidation, open vRAN’s lower installation costs, and reduced demand for site location and construction (SL&C), offset somewhat by hyperscaler spend and 5G rollouts in select developing markets. Hyperscaler investments provide incremental volume to the market, and TBR notes these companies are increasing their investments in access technologies (e.g., Google Fiber).
 
Over the past few years, Ericsson, Nokia and Tech Mahindra have deemphasized deployment services to improve telecom infrastructure services (TIS) margins, and other vendors have similarly reduced their own exposure to labor-intensive deployment, especially as wage inflation accelerates. Ericsson outsourced field services in the U.S. to Authorized Service Providers effective Oct. 1, 2023. This could drive more field installation work to third-party construction firms, such as Dycom and MasTec.
 
5G RAN projects drive investment in optical transport for fronthaul, midhaul and backhaul, as well as the core network. Ciena, most notably, has capitalized on this trend. Part of the rationale for Nokia’s acquisition of Infinera is to gain greater exposure to this domain.
 
CSPs have deferred 5G core investment in general because they do not see a clear path to ROI and standards that would enable new features for the network, especially those that pertain to B2B, have been delayed. The ability to deploy 5G-Advanced services will spur only incremental growth in this area of the market.
 
TBR expects fiber deployment will increase in 2025 and 2026 as broadband services are extended to unserved and underserved areas globally, with government funds supporting CSP efforts in this area, especially in the U.S.
 

Preview TBR’s Telecom Infrastructure Services research, featuring insights into the Managed Services segment, North America revenue and Tier 2 TIS leaders


 

China-based leaders’ TIS revenue declined as domestic 5G RAN rollouts slowed; Nokia’s revenue decreased due to reduced activity in India and lower market share in the U.S.

Deployment services leaders

Revenue leader: China Communications Services (CCS)

CCS derives most of its deployment services revenue from the network infrastructure domain but is increasing its exposure to data center deployments to diversify. The supplier is taking market share from smaller competitors in China as well as Huawei and ZTE. CCS is aligned with and has benefited from the Chinese government’s Belt and Road Initiative, which supports international revenue.
 
Revenue declined year-to-year in 3Q24 as 5G deployment activity in China lessened, partially offset by CCS increasing its account share from its largest customer, China Telecom. TBR believes CCS’ installation work as part of 5G RAN builds is transitioning to maintenance. CCS is increasingly deploying gear in international markets such as MEA, particularly Saudi Arabia and CALA, though volumes in this region pale in comparison to the company’s presence in China.
 

Deployment services revenue

Figure 1: Ten Largest Telecom Infrastructure Suppliers: Deployment Services Revenue for 3Q24


 

Growth leader: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)

Deployment is a noncore area of HPE’s TIS business as the company is much more concerned with monetizing maintenance services. HPE largely leaves deployment to its partner base.
 
TBR believes HPE participates in some server installs for CSP clients adopting its hardware as part of open and/or virtualized RAN deployment, such as for Telus in Canada.

Telecom infrastructure services market overview

TIS revenue continued to shrink outside North America in 3Q24 while operating margins sustained recovery

Aggregate TIS revenue among benchmarked vendors declined 2.8% year-to-year in 3Q24, falling across all segments and regions, with the exception of North America, which grew 1.9% year-to-year. North America growth was largely due to favorable comparisons to 3Q23, when aggregate revenue declined 12.9% year-to-year, but also because of AT&T’s open RAN deployment and hyperscaler investments in optical projects.
 
Conversely, several vendors, including Nokia, Ericsson, Samsung and Ciena, are seeing sharply lower revenue in APAC as India’s CSPs reduced investment following 5G RAN rollouts by Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. Huawei and ZTE are also seeing revenue in APAC decline due to loss of share in India as their installed bases of LTE and optical equipment are replaced by equipment from trusted vendors, as well as lower spend on 5G RAN deployments in China, which peaked in 2022.
 
As CSPs wind down 5G coverage rollouts in China, the U.S. and India in favor of densification, TIS operating margins are growing. Declining deployment activity, which tends to carry the lowest margins among TIS segments, in these markets — especially India — is the main driver of improving TIS operating margins. In 3Q24 deployment services constituted 18.2% of aggregate revenue, down 120 basis points year-to-year. Meanwhile, maintenance services, which tend to carry the highest margins among the TIS segments, grew to 34.2% of aggregate revenue, up 80 basis points year-to-year.
 
Benchmarked vendors’ aggregate TIS operating margin increased year-to-year for the fourth consecutive quarter, following six consecutive quarters of declines. Aggregate operating margin grew from 11.1% in 3Q23 to 12.4% in 3Q24. TBR expects aggregate TIS operating margin gains to continue into 2025 despite an anticipated rebound in TIS revenue in India (where margins are typically low) as new RAN agreements that Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung have with Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel come online, due to the relatively smaller scale of these contracts compared with initial coverage rollouts by Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio. In addition, TBR believes the digital transformation market will recover as CSPs receive clarity on M&A, driving high-margin professional services revenue for several IT services vendors. Further, AT&T’s open RAN rollout will peak in 2025, though it will continue through at least 2026, and margins in the U.S. tend to be higher than in other countries.

TBR’s Telecom Infrastructure Services Benchmark

Telecom infrastructure services includes all external spend (capex and opex) on services by communication service providers (CSPs), including telcos, cablecos and hyperscalers, on or related to communications and IT infrastructure. For our Telecom Infrastructure Services Benchmark, TBR categorizes TIS revenue into four main segments: deployment services, professional services, maintenance services and managed services.
 
Vendor coverage for this research includes, but is not limited to, Amdocs, CGI, Ciena, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Infosys, Juniper, Nokia, Oracle, Samsung, Tech Mahindra and ZTE.
 
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TBR Case Study: Price Benchmarking

Bridge the pricing gap with data-driven insights from TBR

Introduction

In the absence of validated data, many professional and IT services firms rely on pricing strategies of the past and anecdotal, and often biased, inputs from field sales and partners within their ecosystem. To optimize both margin and market share, a data-centric, live “state of the market” pricing analysis can solve many of the unanswered questions services leadership and pricing directors face.

Client’s background

The client for this price benchmarking project was a global Top 3 hardware OEM. The company provides a diverse range of hardware and related services globally across industries such as healthcare, financial services, education and other key industries.

Client’s challenge

The client needed to better understand the competitive pricing environment for consulting and residency services in the U.S. market, including the price points and pricing strategies utilized by key competitors for comparable roles and services. The client sought data and insights on competitive pricing, as well as recommendations on how to translate the insights into executable strategic actions that could be deployed to optimize its near-term and long-term services competitiveness in the U.S. market.
 

Preview a TBR Tailored Services custom competitive pricing engagement, showcasing a rate card assessment and managed services pricing outputs

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How TBR helped

Ongoing company coverage and years of dedicated pricing research have allowed TBR to refine and perfect our methodologies to deliver precise, data-driven insights such as street price, list price, deal size-to-discount ratios, staffing levels and levels of automation. Our expertise enables TBR to identify market trends, optimize pricing strategies and drive competitive advantage.
 
TBR’s unique price benchmarking capabilities include:

  • Primary research that ensures existing research is rooted in direct, current market perspective from competitors and customers
  • Fully customized research plan that ensures data captured is aligned to TBR’s client taxonomies and is directly comparable to internal pricing
  • Outputs that yield quantitative pricing comparisons AND qualitative contextual insights on pricing models, pricing structures, discounting and other commercial tactics

To capture apples-to-apples results, TBR typically fields pricing research by devising a set of hypothetical deal parameters to frame market insiders’ pricing inputs. Upon project launch, TBR collaborates with the client to generate services and deal configuration descriptions to best mirror real-world market conditions and ensure outputs will be representative of the client’s services business.

  • Services scope: Services covered in the engagement and anticipated services deliverables; also includes considerations such as type of services engagement (e.g., residency versus project-based)
  • Technology scope: As applicable, any specifics on the types of technologies encompassed by the engagement per the services deliverables as outlined in the previous bullet
  • Commercial scope: Contract length/term and anticipated deal value in dollar terms as applicable

Client’s results

TBR strives to bring contextual understanding of the multitude of professional services, from management consulting to managed services, security services to attached services.
 
This client was able to capitalize on the investment in pricing research by:

  • Better understand the necessary resource mix to support its deal pursuits and respective pricing schemes (staffing levels and automation mix)
  • Optimally calibrate pricing and go-to-market strategies tied to end-customer outcomes
  • Reframe the value of the partner ecosystem through data-centric lens (reset commercial deal structures and long-term partnership models)
  • Understand implications of new technologies such as GenAI and multicloud on its pricing and profitability (reduce costs from the equation)
  • Invest in hiring and training geared toward what’s next to support elastic pricing and commercial models

Learn more

TBR leverages a proprietary analytical approach to uncover list price vs. street price, delivery models, rate card breakdowns and discount frameworks, developed over 20 years of analyzing professional and IT services vendors and their pricing habits, strategies and discount structures. Each engagement utilizes multiple research tools, including vendor, partner and customer interviews and surveys, with key focus areas spanning competitive intelligence and benchmarking, customer intelligence, financial modeling, go-to-market enablement, and opportunity analysis.
 
Click here to download a free preview of a TBR Tailored Services custom competitive pricing engagement, showcasing a rate card assessment and managed services pricing outputs.

Saudi Arabia’s Message to Global Firms: Deliver Real Value or Step Aside

Moratorium on PwC business tells cautionary tale

My previous and current careers collided last week when the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) announced a one-year moratorium on doing business with PwC (details continue to emerge even as I type this and the exact contours of the new Saudi PIF and PwC arrangement will likely shift, so I won’t try to evaluate a moving target). Having spent 13 years as a U.S. diplomat — including living in the Middle East for four years and taking at least a dozen trips to Saudi Arabia while working at the U.S. State Department, White House, and Department of the Treasury — I have some thoughts on how business and politics work in that region. I’ve also spent almost two decades trying to understand the Big Four firms, and I recently sat down in Washington, D.C., with some of PwC’s leadership to discuss the market, the firm’s ecosystem and what’s coming in 2025.
 
Bottom line upfront: Understand that this is a Saudi story, not a PwC story, although undoubtedly it doesn’t feel that way in PwC’s corridors right now. Saudi Arabia has an opportunity to send some critical messages to players in the country, in the region and globally, and the kingdom is taking advantage. If you’re among the many IT services companies and consultancies — and other multinational companies, although they’re less of a concern to me professionally right now — investing aggressively on growth in the Middle East and you’re misinterpreting this recent development as what PwC did wrong instead of listening to what the Saudis are trying to say, take a long pause and step forward only cautiously.
 

What are the Saudis saying?

First, the Saudis, through the PIF, have issued a warning — a shot across the bow — to management consultancies, IT services companies and others that have been enjoying a seemingly relentless flow of funds from the kingdom: Tighten up your accounts, sharpen your delivery, ensure your value proposition and the Saudis’ return on their investment in you will be abundantly clear. The McKinsey & Co., Boston Consulting Group and Deloitte partners may be enjoying some schadenfreude at the moment, but they understand the message coming from the Saudis: Bring tangible value, or don’t send us a bill.
 
Second, the Saudis have been feeling the positive heat of the world’s economic attention for a few years now, particularly as new leadership has pushed hard to invigorate the non-oil part of the kingdom’s economy. I wrote recently about what that has looked like in the United Arab Emirates — based on a webcast by PwC, coincidently — and for the Saudis, the initial success of those efforts and the increased global market and investor attention have been welcomed. What better time to send a message that Saudi Arabia has a transparent, high-functioning, rules-based economy, long since evolved from the souks of the old days and the opaqueness that characterized so much of the kingdom as late as the mid-2000s?
 
The Saudi Arabia and PwC story serves that purpose perfectly: We’re holding accountable a Big Four accounting and consulting firm and subjecting them to our high standards, just like every other advanced economy. The particulars of the kingdom’s regulatory environment and business culture can certainly be up for discussion, but the message, again, is clear: Everyone needs to play by the Saudis’ rules.
 
And maybe that’s the biggest takeaway as this story develops. Operating in the Middle East requires local knowledge, a regional presence, and an on-the-ground understanding that can only be sustained by being there. Yes, I am writing this 6,303 miles from Riyadh, but lessons learned hard are lessons long remembered, even over long distances. TBR has seen a surge in IT services companies’ and management consultancies’ investments in the Middle East and heard expectations around growth in the near term.
 
In my view, those investments and expectations are smart strategies and well founded. It’s the execution that matters, and a significant — perhaps the most significant — part of that execution comes from knowing the ground, reading the messages being sent, and understanding the story behind the story.

SaaS Vendors Bet on AI Agents to Unlock New Revenue Streams  

AI’s promise persists, but SaaS vendors await tangible revenue gains

While emerging technology AI and generative AI (GenAI) has been widely discussed, it has yet to translate into significant revenue growth for SaaS vendors. This is partly due to customers’ skepticism surrounding the technology and a persistent desire to limit IT spending. Despite this, vendors across all cloud segments have continued to invest heavily, through R&D and capital expenditures, showing a strong willingness to make substantial upfront investments for long-term gains. As a result, AI development strategies have progressed according to previously established road maps, a trend TBR expects to continue through 2025.
 
For SaaS vendors, the long-term opportunity lies in the ability to upsell GenAI solutions integrated directly into their existing workflows. While all major SaaS providers have made such solutions generally available, revenue from GenAI tools has not been enough to offset the slowing top-line growth many vendors are experiencing. Issues like cost, reliability, data governance and use-case validation remain obstacles to broader adoption, preventing the technology from becoming the growth driver vendors had hoped. Nevertheless, enterprise SaaS vendors continue to hold an optimistic long-term outlook, with many believing the technology will become a strategic necessary. This has prompted vendors to stay committed to their previously established AI road maps.
 

Learn how scale, innovation and even repatriation will moderate cloud market growth in 2025.
 
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SaaS vendors will shrug off growing GenAI disillusionment, focusing on the long term by prioritizing GenAI agents within their development strategies

In the latter half of 2024, cutting-edge GenAI tools evolved from copilots that could perform a single task based on natural language prompts to agents capable of handling multiple tasks, paving the way for greater automation. This was a logical progression and an important step in vendors’ efforts to automate workflows.
 

Click the image below to watch this recent TBR Insights Live session, Cloud Market 2025: How GenAI Will Shape the Future

 
Now that agents are available, expanding their capabilities has become the next priority, with vendors allocating more internal resources to develop prebuilt agents specialized in specific tasks. To complement internal development, codevelopment around GenAI agents will become a common initiative in SaaS leaders’ partnership strategies, as they look externally to fill domain expertise gaps.
 
Whether through internal development or ecosystem collaboration, TBR expects a proliferation of GenAI agents in the coming year. However, we remain skeptical about whether this will be enough to make GenAI a significant growth driver. Barriers to adoption, particularly the need for data modernization within enterprises, will likely persist as key challenges to broader GenAI adoption. Nevertheless, vendors will continue to push their development pipelines to stay ahead of competitors in the GenAI arms race.

Learn more

Download 2025 Predictions special report: Cloud Market Share in 2025: GenAI Spurs Growth but Does Not Promise Vendors Long-term Gains
 
Watch TBR Insights Live session on demand: Cloud Market 2025: How GenAI Will Shape the Future

 

Who Is the Market Leader in IT Services?

Updated Feb. 26, 2026

Revenue growth acceleration among the top 10 IT services revenue leaders reflects execution and demand mix advantages rather than market recovery

Eight of the top 10 IT services revenue leaders in TBR’s IT Services Vendor Benchmark reported accelerated positive trailing 12-month (TTM) revenue growth year-to-year in U.S. dollars (USD) during 3Q25, indicating vendors are capturing pockets of growth opportunities despite lingering growth challenges caused by macroeconomic uncertainty, tight discretionary spending, and constrained spending in the U.S. federal sector.
 
Skills rotation, amplified by the announced business optimization program in 3Q25, will enable Accenture to meet shareholders’ short- to mid-term expectations. The reaccelerated pace of acquisitions during 3Q25 aligns with Accenture’s proven playbook but also raises expectations for the company to drive upper-midsingle-digit organic growth in FY26 and beyond, post-integration.
 
IBM Consulting accelerated revenue growth year-to-year in 3Q25 due to its emphasis on client trust, flexible and open platforms, sustained innovation, deep domain expertise and an expanded partner ecosystem. IBM Consulting will sustain its expansion in AI due to IBM’s early advances in the segment and ability to showcase results from internal AI adoption as client zero. IBM Consulting’s GenAI bookings reached more than $1.5 billion in 3Q25, and the number of engagements more than doubled year-to-year. In comparison, Accenture reported GenAI bookings of $1.8 billion in 3Q25, up from $1.5 billion in 2Q25.
 
Fujitsu’s revenue grew as the company continued to benefit from modernization and digital transformation demand in Japan. Fujitsu continually invests in Japan-based, innovative partnerships, which drive growth opportunities but limit global visibility. Fujitsu, RIKEN and NVIDIA announced a collaboration on the AI-HPC supercomputer, FugakuNEXT, expected to be operational in Kobe, Japan, by 2030. TBR expects Infosys’ growth will remain in the midsingle digits in the next two years, largely fueled by converting large and mega outsourcing deals into cash.
 

TBR Graph: Top 10 IT Services Revenue Leaders

Top 10 IT Services Revenue Leaders: TTM Revenue (Source: TBR)

While stable revenue rankings underscore the difficulty of displacing IT services incumbents, acquisitions could cause movement among adjacent peers in the case of Capgemini and IBM in 4Q25

Accenture, NTT DATA and TCS retained their No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 revenue contribution positions, respectively, compared to 2Q25

We do not anticipate Accenture will lose its No. 1 position in revenue anytime soon, even in the highly unlikely scenario that NTT DATA and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) merge their operations. While Accenture is calibrating its operating model toward that of a software-like company to capture agentic AI-driven opportunities, a key strategy for TCS is increasing wallet share among lower-spending clients by building trust and offering competitive, in-demand technology solutions.

IBM and Capgemini retained their No. 4 and No. 5 revenue contribution positions, respectively

Strong relationships and collaborations with partners will strengthen IBM Consulting’s position as the link to IBM’s hybrid cloud and AI platforms. The completed acquisition of WNS will jump-start Capgemini’s intelligent operations model and provide an inorganic boost to Capgemini’s revenue, which will reach an estimated $6.9 billion in 4Q25 and surpass IBM’s revenue of $6.7 billion, according to TBR estimates.

Cognizant and Infosys retained their No. 6 and No. 7 positions, respectively, compared to 2Q25

Crossing $5 billion in quarterly revenue in 3Q25 for the first time in its history highlights Infosys’ ability to leverage the trust it has built within the ecosystem during a time when many of its peers are facing downward pressure.

IT services market outlook

Low single-digit growth persists as IT services activities shift toward efficiency, managed services and selective modernization

TBR estimates TTM revenue growth for the benchmarked IT services vendors will be 2% year-to-year in 2025, an increase over 2024 revenue growth of 0.9% year-to-year.
 
Enterprises remain cautious, prioritizing short-term ROI, phased programs and vendor accountability over large, multiyear commitments. Revenue growth acceleration is increasingly tied to AI-enabled scope expansion, core systems modernization and long-term managed services contracts rather than discretionary budgets. Enhancing managed services activities enables IT services providers to increase client stickiness, a necessary strategy to weather competitive threats.
 
Although consulting and systems integration demand have been pressured by tight discretionary spending, activity is stabilizing as clients selectively fund modernization initiatives tied to efficiency and risk mitigation. AI adoption and IT services delivery continue to support productivity and profitability improvements but will not materially accelerate top-line growth in the near term.
 
Uncertainty around measures taken by the Department of Government Efficiency negatively impacted vendors’ performance in the U.S. federal sector in 1H25. However, these measures will create growth opportunities for established IT services providers in the public sector around system efficiency improvement; technology modernization to enhance citizen services and reduce waste; and adoption of AI by government agencies. IT services providers are also experiencing revenue growth in the public sector in areas such as data and digital sovereignty and cybersecurity.

Explore deeper data and analysis

TBR’s IT Services Vendor Benchmark delivers unique insight and value through in-depth analysis in a concise, consumable format. This quarterly research program covers 30 leading vendors in the IT services segment and analyzes their go-to-market strategies; investments, alliances and acquisitions; and resource management and financial performance. An updated Excel data pivot table is also published with each edition of the benchmark.
 
With TBR Insight Center’s interactive data visualization tool, your team can quickly adapt thousands of IT services and consulting data points for tailored competitive analysis, go-to-market strategy and executive briefings. The tool enables you to curate relevant quantitative insights by company, business unit and/or market segment, creating a report specific to your needs and ensuring consistent frameworks across projects.
 
Click here to explore Insight Center’s data visualization tool, or start your free trial today to access this one-of-a-kind digital-first intelligence platform.
 

 

 

The Middle East’s Economic Transformation: A Real Decoupling or Persistent Uncertainty?

Recap: PwC Middle East’s ‘Transforming the Region’ presentation

PwC Middle East’s Feb. 18, 2025, webcast, “Transforming the Region: Future Insights – Economy and IPO Watch,” included a detailed presentation from Richard Boxshall, PwC Middle East’s chief economist, who highlighted the dichotomy between the region’s oil and non-oil economies, at least in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). How does that all relate to TBR’s coverage of technology companies, including the IT services companies and consultancies I keep a close eye on?
 
In short, energy is stagnant, in terms of both oil price and overall sector growth. In contrast, the non-oil economy is booming, particularly in financial services and transportation. According to Boxshall, around 5,000 projects valued at over $5 trillion are in play in Saudi Arabia alone, reflecting a transformative investment in the country’s economy.
 
But before you set sail for Riyadh, remember that around half of the Saudi and UAE economies are, as Boxshall put it, “driven by oil,” and those governments depend on oil receipts to fund much of their spending. Uncertainty around oil price puts pressure on the countries’ fiscal positions and budgets, as Boxshall noted. If those prices went higher, for all the benefit that would bring to the government coffers, the economies would also face inflation, rising rents and potentially a drag on the non-oil economy. All that interdependency considered, Boxshall still described the split between the oil and non-oil economies as a “real decoupling.”
 
So, good news, right? The long-sought-after growth of strong non-oil economies, the eventual weaning of these pivotal Middle East countries from subservience to the price of oil is happening now and happening quickly. And should a trade war break out between the U.S. and the European Union (EU) or the U.S. and China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — and the rest of the Middle East economies — will suffer. A production surge by the world’s largest oil producer — the U.S. — would further dampen oil prices, constraining Middle East governments’ budgets. Not everything is perfect, but certainly the big picture looks promising: Non-oil economies in oil-led countries have shown persistent, seemingly lasting growth.

Watch on Demand: $130+ Billion Emerging India Opportunity

Why TBR cares: A long history and a fast-changing present

Why does TBR care? Two reasons, one recent and one that goes back decades. First, the latest developments: Nearly every company we cover in the professional services, IT services, and digital transformation services spaces has increased its presence and investment in the Middle East in recent years. We’d like to take some credit for trumpeting the region’s IT possibilities back in 2020 (Egypt and IT and the center of the world), but no matter when or why the most recent surge into the Middle East started, it’s unquestionably become a hot spot (see Figure 1).
 
Sovereign wealth funds, newly arrived Western venture capital, and the payoffs from a couple decades of vastly improved schools and universities all converged in recent years with well-timed investments in technology and necessary changes to regulatory environments. The steady economic diversification efforts, coupled with new leadership in much of the region and all the factors above, have made the region exceptionally attractive to capital and talent. As one Big Four partner said to me recently, “If I was in my 20s right now, I’d move to Riyadh.”
 

CompanyCoverageInvestment/Growth
DeloitteEgyptInnovation Hub and investment of $30 million over five years
KPMGSaudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, UAE, Oman Merged member firms into one entity to improve operations
AccentureKuwait National Security Operations Center (cybersecurity services)
PwCSaudi Arabia Acquired Emkan Education (boutique education consultancy)

 

That leads to the decades-old reason why I’m interested in what’s happening in the Middle East and how those economies are changing. When I was in my 20s, I lived in the region, spending two years in Cairo followed by two in Dubai, UAE. Working for the U.S. government gave me access to regional economic conferences, multinational oil companies, local government ministries and even oil smugglers, all of which shaped my understandings of the energy industry and the region’s economies.
 
One would be foolish to doubt the Emiratis’ innovativeness, the Saudis’ limitless financial resources or the Egyptians’ belief in their centricity to the entire world. But 25 years ago, the obstacles to thriving non-oil economies, particularly in Saudi Arabia, seemed insurmountable. Looking at the region now through Boxshall’s eyes (and those of my friends still living and working there), it’s too easy to view the transformation as inevitable. Combine diligent reforms, steady investment, smart leadership and a growing population base, underpinned by all that relentless oil money, and, of course, these are thriving economies attracting top talent.
 
I can’t argue against that. Nor do I have a cautionary note to sound about previous financial crashes in Dubai or charming Saudi leaders or French emperors conquering Egypt. Very simply, when asked decades ago what success would look like, government and business leaders in the region described economic conditions very similar to what we’re seeing today.

New IT Services Vertical Revenue Data Shows TCS’ Public Sector Surge and Market Shifts

TBR has been tracking performance of IT services companies for decades. As go-to-market strategies increasingly focus on industry-centric solutions, TBR determined to build trailing 12-month revenue based on a standardized breakout of key industry verticals.
 
In 2018 we expanded our IT services coverage to include estimates for seven industry vertical splits (full list below), leading to the recent launch of the IT Services Industry Vertical Data Excel file. This extensive data file includes revenue estimates for 17 IT services companies, including Accenture, Capgemini, DXC Technology, IBM and Tech Mahindra (full list below). Quarterly estimates, year-to-year growth, and percentage of IT services totals date back to 1Q21.
 
This proprietary data stream, in conjunction with our qualitative analysis of these firms, including their partners and how they operate, offers unprecedented intelligence on which companies are growing or maintaining their revenue or experiencing declines within industry verticals and allows for partner adjustments and competitive maneuvering.

TBR’s vertical-specific IT services data reveals notable industry trends

In the most recently published data file, several key insights stand out, including highlights from TBR’s research on Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Capgemini and Wipro.

Most notable: TCS’ public sector success in India

Tata Consultancy Services’ (TCS) public sector revenues jumped 52.2% year-to-year in 3Q24, extending — and accelerating — five straight quarters of double-digit growth. Curiously, however, TBR’s data shows a deviation from the norm in geo data. Reported India revenues by TCS (as a percentage of revenue) have been growing at a mid-double-digit range for over a year. In fact, reported revenue has grown so rapidly that India generated more revenue for TCS than the rest of the Asia Pacific region combined for the first time in 3Q24, and that gap expanded in 4Q24.
 
While it is unquestionably an impressive growth story, public sector revenue accounts for less than 5% of TCS’ overall IT services revenue, making it strong growth from a relatively small base. Still, 52.2% is impressive relative to the market, and analysis in TBR’s quarterly reports on TCS can help us understand this success. In short: It’s India.

  • “India was again a bright spot for TCS, nearly doubling its revenue composition from the previous year, now accounting for 8.9% of total TCS revenue. We attribute the growth in India to strong brand reputation and favorable government policies to incentivize companies to digitize their IT operations.” — TBR’s 3Q24 Tata Consultancy Services report
  • “Although India has historically only accounted for 5% to 6% of TCS’ total revenue, we anticipate this share will rise over the next few years, reaching double-digit figures before peaking and stabilizing. IT spending in India continues to increase, indicating there is plenty of opportunity, particularly for locally based IT services firms such as TCS. For example, during 2Q24 TCS and Indian state-owned telco Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited announced plans to build four data centers across India to meet rising demand.” — TBR’s 2Q24 Tata Consultancy Services report

Tata Consultancy Services IT Services Vertical Revenue Data
 
According to TBR’s lead analyst on TCS, Senior Analyst Kevin Collupy, “They are killing it with local Indian enterprises and government organizations. And last year we reported on an uptick in consultancies and IT services companies investing in their India-for-India capabilities, offerings and scale. So, 52.2% growth in public sector, even as TCS itself only grew 6.4%, tracks with the overall India growth story while illustrating just how well TCS has been doing.” ​

Additional insights from 3Q24 data

Capgemini’s revenue declined 1% year-to-year in U.S. dollars (USD) in 3Q24, but the company’s public sector revenue increased by more than 4% in the same period. At 15.1% of the company’s total IT services revenue, public sector revenue significantly buoyed what would have been an even rougher quarter. Retail, CPG, Travel & Transportation declined 4% year-to-year in USD in 3Q24 and accounted for 15.1% of Capgemini’s IT services.
 
Wipro’s 19.1% drop in public sector revenue in 3Q24 looks terrible, particularly in the context of an overall IT services decline of just over 2%. The vertical did not pull down Wipro as a whole though, as it represents just 0.5% of total revenue. The real culprits were Financial Services (down 1.3%, while accounting for 33.9% of revenue) and High Tech, Communications & Media (down 8.1%, at 15.4% of revenue).

Access all IT services vertical-specific data

While a single quarter is only a snapshot of the market narrative, the numbers in TBR’s vertical-specific IT services data starts to paint the picture while company reports fill out the story. An updated IT Services Industry Vertical Data Excel file will be released quarterly in TBR’s digital platform, Insight Center™.
 
If you are a current TBR user with access to the IT Services Vendor Benchmark, you can download the IT Services Industry Vertical Data Excel file today.  If you’re interested in gaining access to the data, as well as TBR’s entire IT services research stream, start your free trial to Insight Center™.
 
Vendors covered in TBR’s IT Services Vendor Benchmark Data:

  • Accenture
  • Atos
  • Capgemini
  • CGI
  • Cisco Customer Experience
  • Cognizant
  • DXC Technology
  • Fujitsu
  • HCLTech
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise Services
  • IBM
  • Infosys
  • Kyndryl
  • Tata Consultancy Services
  • Tech Mahindra
  • T-Systems
  • Wipro IT Services

Industry coverage in TBR’s IT Services Vendor Benchmark Data:

  • Financial Services
  • Healthcare & Life Sciences
  • High Tech, Communications & Media
  • Industrial Solutions, Manufacturing, Automotive, Energy, Utilities & Chemicals
  • Other Industry
  • Public Sector
  • Retail, Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG), Travel & Transportation

Fujitsu Expands Kozuchi AI Platform and Strengthens Partnerships to Drive Digital Transformation

Fujitsu Kozuchi’s wider understanding of business operations provides Fujitsu with an advantage around AI

Fujitsu launched Fujitsu Kozuchi, its AI platform that provides cloud-based AI services including generative AI (GenAI), predictive analytics, text, AI trust, experience AI, vision and automated machine learning (ML). These seven areas enable Fujitsu to address a wide range of business process needs. Since the launch of Fujitsu Kozuchi in August 2023, Fujitsu has continued to invest in the platform to add new services. For example, during 3Q24 Fujitsu expanded Fujitsu Kozuchi AI to include an AI agent that supports high-level tasks. As a result, Fujitsu is better equipped to provide advice and support related to users’ profitability challenges. In December Fujitsu added multi-AI agent security technology to protect digital and AI environments.
 
According to TBR’s November 2024 Digital Transformation: Voice of the Customer Research, “Buyers have become more tech savvy in recent years due in part to cloud adoption, and there is widespread understanding that they need GenAI. It is up to the vendors to make sure the technology lives up to the hype. Vendors have some time to iron out how to best demonstrate ROI, as only one-quarter of respondents quantitatively measure the effectiveness of the technology and 60% still apply only soft KPIs.”
 
Fujitsu’s investments in Fujitsu Kozuchi have equipped the company well to appeal to clients’ needs around the technology, providing opportunities to supply analytics with associated text, vision and trust in support of business operations. While AI technology evolves rapidly to include new capabilities, Fujitsu’s approach to developing the platform and leveraging partners and internal capabilities gives it an advantage in offering a wider set of services. Fujitsu’s industry expertise drives additional value for clients, helping them address key pain points and extract insights from their business operations. Despite the company’s geographical challenges, the development of Fujitsu Kozuchi and use of partners for portfolio development will enable Fujitsu to compete with peers and capture new clients in Europe and APAC.
 

Find out what’s in store for IT services vendors and consultancies in 2025 in terms of strategy consulting, generative AI (GenAI) and ecosystem intelligence.
 
Download TBR’s 2025 Digital Transformation Predictions special report today!


 

Partnerships enhance Fujitsu’s positioning around operational transformation projects

Revenue in Fujitsu’s services business fell an estimated 0.2% in local currency (down 3.2% in USD) to ¥713 billion ($4.7 billion). Continued demand for digital transformation projects and IT modernization services, particularly in Japan, was offset by offloading underperforming businesses. Fujitsu’s investments around Fujitsu Uvance, which is underpinning transformation projects, will help improve the company’s trajectory. Grounding its transformation projects in sustainable solutions that aim to address societal challenges aligns with clients’ needs and advanced technologies. The company’s enhanced delivery network improves operations outside of Japan, enabling Fujitsu to engage with new regional clients. Moving through 2025, Fujitsu will continue to accelerate Fujitsu Uvance, bringing in new capabilities to strengthen its value for clients and regional connections.
 
According to TBR’s 3Q24 IT Services Vendor Benchmark, “IT services vendors are working with partners to provide smoother, less disruptive adoption of new technology, enabling clients to improve their cost structures and benefit from operational efficiencies during ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Vendors and their partners are combining professional services, technology and industry expertise with new capabilities to meet client needs and create new revenue streams.”
 
Fujitsu continued to leverage its partner ecosystem, extending its existing relationships with key partners such as Microsoft, SAP and Amazon Web Services (AWS). Through the partnerships, Fujitsu enhances its position to deliver on vendor needs around cost structure and operational efficiencies. For example, with AWS, Fujitsu incorporated Fujitsu Uvance offerings with AWS’ cloud services and architecture to help integrate sustainability and address societal issues within digital transformation projects.
 
Under the partnership expansion, Fujitsu will train an additional 5,000 engineers to further accelerate digital transformation with new offerings and provide tailored services within cloud migrations. Fujitsu also renewed its partnership with SAP Fioneer following similar initiatives with an insurance industry focus. For instance, the two will collaborate on a cloud platform that supports core insurance services and business practices.
 
TBR will continue to report on Fujitsu’s increasing roles in the AI and consulting space. For access to upcoming data and analysis on Fujitsu’s strategy and performance, start your Insight Center™ free trial today.

New Solutions Drive New Revenue Streams for Atos’ Manufacturing Clients

Atos showcases strength in manufacturing industry specialization

Although it is an understatement to say Atos has struggled with its financial performance in recent years, the new year gives TBR analysts a chance to look for signs of change or markers indicating that Atos’ strategic decisions, investments and leadership adjustments have put the company on the path to sustained and profitable revenue growth in the coming years. We are paying close attention to Atos’ enhanced and deepened partnerships with technology companies, its major multiyear deal signings, and the use cases Atos’ two business lines — Eviden and Tech Foundations — tout as indications of what is working well and where they are gaining additional traction (and traction equals growth).
 
Along with the usual digital security solutions, cloud migrations, platforms and advanced computing implementations, one recent use case stood out, surprisingly not only for what Eviden did but also for what the organization positioned its client to do in the future. As part of a five-year engagement, Eviden helped Spanish train manufacturer Talgo develop what Eviden called a “state-of-the-art fleet monitoring system” that can ingest and process massive volumes of data, bring information and insights to train maintenance engineers, and “achieve architectural flexibility and scalability to incorporate modern train series without additional development efforts.” While the first few elements should be considered core capabilities of any modern, AI-enabled, and purpose-built system, the last one addresses a customer sentiment we have been hearing relentlessly for the last 18 months: Make my current technology work better without additional investment in even more new technology.
 
But that is not what jumped out at TBR as something special and a marker of potentially good things to come.

Reselling the TSMART solution creates new revenue streams for Talgo

Eviden’s work with Talgo produced the fleet monitoring system Talgo SMART Maintenance (TSMART). In recent years TSMART has been improved with capabilities such as predictive maintenance and visualizations. So far, so good, and so much like most others.
 
There is a significant difference, though, as Eviden noted in the press release: “Long an aspiration of smart manufacturing, the ability to create value-adding services from products is now Talgo’s reality. TSMART can be enhanced with product packaging/branding to be offered as a service to third parties. Talgo can easily extend the TSMART system to new train series or offer it to customers as a service. Its customizable interfaces include options for company branding and user personalization as well as new train configurations.”
 
Eviden helped create more than just an asset for Talgo to use internally and benefit from increased productivity, operational safety and fleet reliability. Now Talgo can expand its offerings with its own clients, develop a new business model, create new revenue streams, and, likely, greatly enhance its stickiness and position across its ecosystem. Not every IT services engagement leads to a client creating a new business opportunity, but this one did.

Now, can Eviden recreate the success of TSMART with other clients? Can this become a calling card for Eviden, an example of what can separate the organization from peers?

Certainly not with every client and every engagement — routine designing and building of systems are just that, routine — but if Eviden brings the mindset behind TSMART into opportunities, particularly with long-standing clients in the manufacturing and energy industries, TBR anticipates a quicker return to revenue growth for Eviden, which will support Atos’ overall financial performance.
 
Atos has established expertise around delivering predictive maintenance solutions and is applying its skills across industries. The company is working with multiple clients in the theme park and attractions industry, utilizing data and AI as well as edge server technologies to reduce the downtime of rides and improve customer satisfaction. For example, in 2020 Atos won a deal with the Triple Five Group’s American Dream entertainment complex to provide predictive maintenance utilizing data analytics and AI solutions as well as BullSequana Edge servers to collect and store data from ride sensors and detect issues through real-time analytics at the edge.
 
In covering Atos and its two business lines, Eviden and Tech Foundations, TBR publishes a quarterly Atos report and a semiannual Atos Cloud report. TBR also includes the company in our quarterly IT Services Vendor Benchmark, AI and GenAI Market Landscape, and various ecosystem intelligence and digital transformation reports, as warranted by Atos’ investments and activities in those areas. Access all of this research and more with your Insight Center™ free trial. Sign up today!

Federal IT Spending Poised for Another Strong Year in Fiscal 2025

Federal IT spending remained robust throughout FFY24, and the market appears poised for another strong year in FFY25, even as CY25 begins with yet another continuing resolution

TBR projects weighted average year-to-year federal IT services revenue growth for the 11 companies featured in our Federal IT Services Benchmark will decelerate to between 8% and 8.5% in 4Q24, down from 9.3% in 3Q24. Additionally, we anticipate weighted average year-to-year revenue growth in the defense sector will fall to between 6.8% and 7.3% in 4Q24, while civilian revenue growth will remain between 10% and 10.5% in 4Q24.
 
Four leading federal systems integrators — Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), CACI, Leidos and SAIC — as well as smaller federal IT peer KBRWyle elevated their respective revenue growth forecasts for their current fiscal year when tendering 3Q24 fiscal results; these results indicate the federal IT macro environment will remain mostly growth-friendly through FFY25.
 
The new federal fiscal year began with a continuing resolution (CR) that extended government funding until Dec. 20, when a subsequent CR was enacted to fund federal operations until March 14, 2025. Further CR extensions in federal fiscal year 2025 (FFY2025) would cause budget delays that could impede the ability of federal IT contractors to convert backlog into revenue, but most vendors expect revenue growth to remain on a solidly upward growth trajectory in FFY25.
 
The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (FRA) remains in effect, and the Biden administration’s FFY25 budget request aligns with the FRA’s spending caps. Federal IT spending priorities will remain largely unchanged in FFY25, with IT investment focused on enhancing national security (especially in the APAC region and to deter future Russian aggression in Ukraine), promoting the adoption of AI and generative AI (GenAI) technologies, modernizing and enhancing the security of federal technology infrastructures, and IT-enabling public health systems.
 
The Department of Defense (DOD) will be integrating six new naval vessels into its global IT networks while spending nearly $34 billion to enhance space-based capabilities and another $10 billion to enhance the security and interoperability of IT and weapons systems operating in the Indo-Pacific theater. The Pentagon will spend another $14.5 billion for overall cybersecurity activities in FFY25 while expanding outlays on analytics and AI and increasing investment in the ongoing Replicator initiative to deploy thousands of autonomous systems across multiple domains by FFY26 to counter the ever-growing threat from China.
 
Civilian agencies will continue increasing their cybersecurity spending in FFY25, with an additional $13 billion requested in FFY25 to fund new zero-trust and access management programs as well as initiatives to secure critical infrastructure and federal civilian supply chains. The budget of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) charged with leading cybersecurity efforts across the federal market, will expand by over $100 million from FFY24 to FFY25 to reach $3 billion. Civilian agencies are also increasing AI-related investments to fund the development, testing, purchase and deployment of new AI and GenAI technologies, as well as to expand their AI workforces.
 

Federal agencies must master AI from both a technological and a responsible use standpoint, prior to the inevitable adoption of GenAI. The most basic, fundamental distinction between AI and GenAI is that AI is good at analyzing existing content while GenAI generates new content. Much foundational modernization work is still needed across the federal IT environment to accommodate digital technologies like cloud, AI and GenAI, ensuring continued (albeit slower) federal IT growth in FFY25 and beyond.


 

Expansion accelerated in the federal IT market in 3Q24 as renewed M&A activity by several federal IT vendors augmented strong, stable demand for digitally based IT modernization

Statutory year-to-year revenue growth for the 11 TBR-benchmarked vendors in the U.S. federal market on a weighted average basis rose 100 basis points sequentially, increasing from 8.3% in 2Q24 to 9.3% in 3Q24. Acquisitions by Accenture Federal Services (Cognosante), BAH (PAR Government Systems Corporation [PGSC]), CACI (Quadrint in 1Q24 and Azure Summit Technologies [AST] in 3Q24), CGI Federal (Aeyon), General Dynamics Technologies (Iron EagleX) and KBRWyle (LinQuest) generated an inorganic tailwind to overall market growth of roughly 180 basis points in 3Q24.
 
Federal IT executives (e.g., CACI CEO John Mengucci) have indicated that the M&A market became more buyer-friendly during 2024, prompting several benchmarked vendors to leverage acquisitions to address portfolio gaps in multiple areas, including digital transformation (DT) and emerging technologies for classified defense and intelligence operations.
 
Vendors have been acquiring, and will continue to hunt for, smaller peers with scalable cloud and digital modernization capabilities as well as deep existing (and likely cloud-related) relationships with federal agencies. Underpinning inorganic market growth is enduring robust demand for digitally transformative technologies in AI, cloud, analytics and data science, as well as the continued need to upgrade baseline IT infrastructures across the federal sector to accommodate digital modernization.

Graph: 3Q24 Federal Revenue, Profitability and Year-to-year Revenue Growth

KBRWyle’s federal revenue rose 10.2% year-to-year in 3Q24 as LinQuest was acquired and demand mounted for all the offerings within Government Solutions business units. KBR’s leadership team increased its guidance for the company’s revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) during the 3Q24 earnings call due in part to Government Solutions’ strong performance and the purchase of LinQuest creating more opportunities with DOD agencies.
 
Inorganic growth is again boosting CACI’s top-line growth after the company made three acquisitions between 2Q24 and early 4Q24. CACI’s acquisition of AST in 3Q24 contributed between 70 and 80 basis points of inorganic growth during the quarter and is expected to add between $440 million and $450 million to the company’s sales in its FY25.
 
BAH’s revenue rose 18% year-to-year in 3Q24, driving the firm’s total sales past $3 billion for the first time. BAH’s June acquisition of PGSC began to contribute inorganic revenue in 3Q24, and we estimate BAH’s organic year-to-year growth was 17.7% in 3Q24, with PGSC contributing between 20 and 30 basis points of inorganic growth.

Civil and defense agencies drive double-digit IT growth through cybersecurity, health IT and AI investments

Civil agencies continue to aggressively invest in cybersecurity, health IT and Agile-based software systems, leading to sustained double-digit civil sector IT spending growth

Weighted average growth in the civilian sector accelerated 80 basis points sequentially, rising from 9.6% in 2Q24 to 10.4% in 3Q24. Vendors including BAH and Leidos have posted multiple quarters of double-digit growth in their respective civil units as of 3Q24, with robust rates of growth expected to persist well into 2025. Sector growth was sustained at or near 10% throughout FFY24 as demand among civil agencies remains robust for comprehensive zero-trust and cyber incident support solutions, particularly by DHS, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the IRS and NASA.
 
Attracting and retaining cybersecurity talent also remain top priorities for nearly all civilian agencies, which are tapping vendors like Accenture Federal Services (AFS), BAH and Deloitte Federal for human resource advisory services. NASA launched an eight-year, $2 billion program, NASA Consolidated Applications and Platform Services (NCAPS), during 3Q24 to develop and deploy Agile-based software for over 200 IT systems, with vendors including CACI among the primary awardees. Health IT is generating new revenue and profit streams for the benchmarked vendors, and agencies including the HHS (and its subagencies, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Institutes of Health) are seeking agencywide AI and analytics adoption services. The top five benchmarked vendors in year-to-year civilian sector revenue growth in 3Q24 were AFS (25%), BAH (16.1%), SAIC (10.8%), Maximus (9.3%) and CACI (7.9%).

Defense and intelligence agencies expanded spending on IT modernization, global integration of defense networks, and AI-enabling intelligence collection and analysis solutions in 3Q24

Weighted average expansion in the defense sector rose 110 basis points sequentially, from 7.5% in 2Q24 to 8.6% in 3Q24. BAH and CACI maintained double-digit expansion in their respective defense sales in 3Q24, while Leidos and GDT posted midsingle-digit top-line defense growth in the quarter. The DOD awarded billions of dollars in net-new programs while several benchmarked competitors also secured key recompetes with defense agencies. The DOD’s European Command has aggressively expanded its activities (particularly with BAH) as the war in Ukraine grinds on, while globally, the Pentagon continues prioritizing the adoption of AI, analytics, big data and cloud technologies to facilitate and accelerate real-time decision making for military commands.
 
The DOD is also expanding activities in APAC, investing in advanced intelligence and combat-related technologies to deter Chinese aggression. The U.S. Air Force is accelerating spend on the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program while the DOD’s Combined Joint All Domain Command and Control (CJADC2) initiative to achieve IT infrastructure interoperability across all military branches and with defense agencies of U.S. allies continues to spool up. Project volumes also expanded on several marquee defense IT programs, including Sentinel (modernizing C5ISR [Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance] systems across the DOD) and the $11 billion Defense Enclave Services program.
 
IT investment patterns in the intelligence community continue slowly stabilizing as intelligence agencies invest in intelligence analysis services and solutions and AI-based technologies to collate and ingest intelligence data. The top five benchmarked vendors in year-to-year defense sector revenue growth in 3Q24 were BAH (19.1%), CACI (13.5%), KBRWyle (12.4%), Leidos (4.4%) and AFS (3.9%).

 

Follow federal IT services performance throughout 2025 with data and analysis in TBR Insight Center. Start your free trial today.