While ManTech’s ongoing strategy appears to align with the Trump administration’s interests, the company will need to increasingly leverage its partner network to close the capabilities gap between it and Tier 1 peers like Leidos and Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH).
The new federal fiscal year began with a continuing resolution (CR) that extended government funding until Dec. 20, when a subsequent CR was enacted to fund federal operations until March 14, 2025. Further CR extensions in federal fiscal year 2025 (FFY2025) would cause budget delays that could impede the ability of federal IT contractors to convert backlog into revenue, but most vendors expect revenue growth to remain on a solidly upward growth trajectory in FFY25.
Since coming into office, the Biden administration has fueled an unprecedented federal IT bull market. While the White House’s proposed federal civilian technology budget of $75.1 billion for federal fiscal year 2025 (FFY25) is the smallest increase in several years (up less than 1% compared to $74.5 billion in FFY24), it is still an increase of more than 14% from $65.8 billion in FFY23, and up 25% from $60.1 billion in FFY21, the last year of the prior administration. FFY25 has started with a continuing resolution (CR), as have most of the last several fiscal year. The impact of the latest CR on the largest federal systems integrators may be limited to shorter-cycle programs in their order books, but some disruptions to larger, longer-term engagements are not out of the question.
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TBR anticipates that Peraton will continue to more efficiently convert its backlog (last reported at $24.4 billion in the middle of 2022) into revenue while the company also keeps capitalizing on federal budget priorities favoring civilian, defense and healthcare agencies. A government shutdown in 4Q24 could still disrupt Peraton’s expansion, but TBR believes Peraton will still reach between $8.0 billion and $8.1 billion in annual revenue during 2024, representing growth of between 2.6% to 5.2% over 2023.
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Peraton has the necessary portfolio depth and scale to regularly vie with industry leaders for enterprise IT contracts in the $500 million to $2 billion range in the federal civilian and health spaces while also capitalizing on Department of Defense Intelligence Community needs.
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