Competition will intensify in the U.S. telecom market heading into 2020 due to the launch of 5G services and the potential T-Mobile/Sprint merger

HAMPTON, N.H. (June 8, 2018) — Wireless revenue rose 3.1% year-to-year to $58.4 billion among U.S. carriers covered in Technology Business Research Inc.’s (TBR) 1Q18 U.S. & Canada Mobile Operator Benchmark as higher equipment revenue spurred by the adoption of premium devices offset continuing service revenue declines. Increased adoption of premium devices is benefiting equipment revenue as devices such as the iPhone X have pushed the acceptable average selling price for smartphones to over $1,000. Verizon, AT&T and Sprint expect service revenue declines will gradually moderate in 2018 as the bulk of customers are now on unsubsidized service plans. However, service revenue will be negatively impacted by the new ASC 606 industry accounting standard as well as lower overage revenue stemming from the growing adoption of unlimited data plans.

The report examines how the recently announced T-Mobile and Sprint merger would disrupt the wireless and cable industries should it gain regulatory approval. “The proposed T-Mobile merger would serve as a lifeboat for Sprint, alleviating the company’s long-term financial challenges, including its high debt load and struggles to generate positive net income,” said TBR Telecom Analyst Steve Vachon. “The scale gained from Sprint’s operations would also enable T-Mobile to compete more aggressively in the 5G era and strengthen its margins, which historically have trailed those of Verizon and AT&T.”

The proposed T-Mobile and Sprint merger would also disrupt the cable and pay-TV industries, as the combined company would have a base of over 125 million wireless subscribers to which it could cross-sell T-Mobile’s upcoming Layer3 TV video platform. The combined company’s 5G services may also serve as a replacement for traditional wireline broadband connectivity as the combination of T-Mobile’s and Sprint’s spectrum would yield estimated speeds of 450Mbps on a national average.

Combined wireless revenue among Tier 1 Canadian carriers rose 8.8% year-to-year to $6 billion due to continued postpaid additions spurred by shared data programs and higher data usage arising from the accelerated speeds offered by LTE-Advanced services. Despite steady increases in smartphone penetration in Canada, the postpaid market continues to flourish as Rogers and Bell Mobility reported their highest first quarter postpaid net additions in 1Q18 since 2009 and 2011, respectively. Subscriber growth will remain strong throughout 2018 as prepaid customers transition to postpaid plans with higher average revenue per user (ARPU) and as connected device adoption increases in Canada. Carriers will also have the opportunity to target first-time wireless customers in Canada, including youths and young adults as well as immigrants entering the country.

The U.S. & Canada Mobile Operator Benchmark details and compares the activities of the largest U.S. and Canadian operators, including financial performance, go-to-market initiatives and resource management strategies. Covered companies include AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile, U.S. Cellular, Rogers, Telus and Bell Mobility.

 

5G will support growth in the deployment and professional services markets, while slowing the decline of maintenance spend due to decommissioning and NFV/SDN

HAMPTON, N.H. (May 31, 2018) — According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) Telecom Infrastructure Services North America Market Forecast 2017-2022, the North America telecom infrastructure services (TIS) market will grow through the forecast period for three key reasons: Tax reform will stimulate capex investment; digital transformation initiatives will drive spend; and 5G investment will be pulled forward and accelerated by the big four operators in the U.S. to obtain or retain a competitive advantage. Spend pertaining to these overarching trends will be partly offset by cost savings from legacy infrastructure decommissioning, cloud, and NFV/SDN as well as synergies that are realized from M&A. TBR estimates the market will grow at a CAGR of 0.6% from 2017 to 2022.

“The big four operators in the U.S. intend to commercially deploy 5G as soon as late 2018, with deployments set to ramp up in 2019 and through the remainder of the forecast period,” said TBR Telecom Senior Analyst Michael Soper. “5G requires significant investments in fiber and upgrades in the network backbone and access layer, all of which will drive spend on TIS. 5G will slow the pace of decline in the maintenance market in the later years of the forecast period, but will not return the maintenance market to growth due to the aforementioned decommissioning and NFV/SDN.”

Vendors largely showed growth in North America in 2017. Although vendors with hardware exposure had flat or declining TIS revenue, suppliers grew sales if they had services and software portfolios aligned to operator transformation needs. Ericsson’s revenue declined predominantly due to the rescoped Sprint managed services contract. Cloud service provider spend remains robust in the U.S., helping Accenture and Nokia post growth in the region despite ongoing weak spend by telecom operators. Other vendors, particularly Juniper, are also obtaining a greater portion of TIS revenue from cloud service providers. Looking toward 2018 and beyond, IT services firms and software-centric companies, particularly Accenture, Amdocs, Tech Mahindra and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), are best positioned to help operators capitalize on the digital economy.

TBR’s Telecom Infrastructure Services North America Market Forecast provides annual analysis and forecasting of the deployment, maintenance, professional services and managed services markets for network and IT suppliers.

 

Technology Business Research, Inc. announces 3Q18 webinar schedule

HAMPTON, N.H. (May 22, 2018) — Technology Business Research, Inc. (TBR) announces the schedule for its 3Q18 webinar series.

July 11          Wallet vs. will: Transformation of government technology adoption

Aug. 8           Revenue growth drivers and opportunities in the IT services market

Aug. 15        IoT vendor roles

Sept. 12       Going inside customers’ minds to predict the future of cloud

Sept. 19       Webscale ICT market update

Sept. 26       The value imperative: Healthcare IT services vendors reorient around value-centric models of care delivery and payment

TBR webinars are held typically each Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET and include a 15-minute Q&A session following the main presentation. Previous webinars can be viewed anytime on TBR’s website.

Carriers are fostering deeper partnerships with webscales to support growing enterprise demand for hybrid and multi-cloud environments

HAMPTON, N.H. (April 20, 2018) — Combined Cloud as a Service revenue for telecom operators in Technology Business Research Inc.’s (TBR) 4Q17 Carrier Cloud Benchmark rose 15.7% year-to-year in 4Q17 due to strategic acquisitions and alliances, investments in new data centers, and portfolio expansion in growth segments such as SaaS and hybrid cloud. Cloud revenue growth is being limited, however, due to pricing pressures and growing demand for solutions from webscale cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS). Carriers are cognizant of these trends and are becoming more focused on supporting hybrid and multi-cloud environments by launching new orchestration platforms.

“All benchmarked companies sustained year-to-year Cloud as a Service revenue growth in 4Q17 as significant opportunity remains for carriers to target businesses seeking greater cost savings, scalability and efficiency by migrating traditional infrastructure and applications to the cloud,” said Steve Vachon, an analyst in TBR’s Telecom Practice. “Though cloud revenue growth is being limited by pricing pressures from webscale providers, carriers are relying on the value proposition and convenience offered by the bundling of their cloud solutions with other network offerings, such as SD-WAN, security and mobility services, to attract customers.”

Operators are revamping their go-to-market strategies to counter disruption from webscale providers such as AWS, Google and Microsoft. Competition will intensify over the next several years as webscales seek to play a larger role within the European and Asian cloud markets by investing in additional data centers in those regions. Amid demand for solutions from webscales in the cloud market, most carriers are offering access to these companies to complement their existing cloud portfolios and to support hybrid and multi-cloud environments. Carriers are also integrating webscale cloud platforms to enhance adjacent portfolio segments such as Internet of Things and unified communications.

TBR’s Telecom Practice provides semiannual analysis of Cloud as a Service revenue in key segment splits and regions for the top global carrier cloud operators in its Carrier Cloud Benchmark. Operators covered include Bharti Airtel, BT, CenturyLink, China Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, Korea Telecom, NTT, Orange, Singtel, Telefonica and Vodafone.

 

As the telecom industry drives open source for interoperability more operators benefit from NFV and SDN, but incumbent suppliers face significant disruption

HAMPTON, N.H. (April 12, 2018) — According to TBR’s 1Q18 NFV/SDN Telecom Market Landscape, open-source groups will spur NFV and SDN adoption by establishing industry standards that foster interoperability among a broader range of solution providers. Operators are also facilitating NFV and SDN adoption by targeting new hires with relevant skill sets, retraining existing employees and launching internal startups to quickly improve their resource pools. Cost savings is the primary driver for accelerated NFV and SDN adoption, but these benefits will be realized gradually.

“The ability to reduce capex will initially be the largest cost benefit realized by adopters of NFV and SDN as software-mediated technologies enable operators to significantly reduce spend on proprietary hardware,” said TBR Telecom Senior Analyst Michael Soper. “Reducing opex will be a longer process as most operators will maintain both legacy and virtualized environments until they are ready to migrate fully to virtualized infrastructure.”

As operators pursue cost reduction through NFV and SDN, incumbent vendors face numerus threats to their business models and disruption on multiple technology fronts. Industry trends are moving against the vendor community, with incumbent vendors, particularly hardware-centric vendors, poised to struggle the most. Operators globally are focused on significantly reducing the cost of network operations and capex, underscored by a desire to disaggregate the black box and commoditize the hardware layer. White-box-based universal customer premises equipment is the leading application of industry-standard hardware thus far, but operators are targeting additional domains, including the core and edge network.

The NFV/SDN Telecom Market Landscape includes key findings, market size, customer adoption, operator positioning and strategies, geographic adoption, vendor positioning and strategies, and acquisition and alliance strategies and opportunities.

 

Super 7 webscale ICT capex spend will reach over $63B by 2022, driven by investments in network capacity and data center builds and expansions

HAMPTON, N.H. (March 2, 2018) According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) 1Q18 Webscale ICT Market Landscape, Super 7 webscale ICT capex will grow at a 19.5% CAGR to over $63 billion in 2022 as these companies continue to invest in network capacity to support traffic growth, and data center builds and expansions to support their cloud businesses. Microsoft and Alphabet are leveraging strong ICT capex spend to help Azure and Google Cloud close the market share gap with Amazon Web Services (AWS).

Additionally, the Super 7 are developing machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) features that will become table stakes for cloud providers, though development is not capex-intensive. Cloud providers are investing in AI and ML to differentiate their core solutions, but the market for these technologies is nascent.

“AWS is the leading IaaS provider by revenue, but Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud are growing revenue faster than the incumbent due to years of data center investment across geographies. Microsoft is closing the gap quickly and will challenge AWS in the short term, while Google, which was later to the market, is more of a long-term threat,” said Michael Soper, a senior analyst at TBR. “Beyond data centers, webscale companies are making undersea cable investments to support cloud and video traffic growth. Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft will continue to build these networks to carry traffic across oceans and typically partner with each other as they do so.”

After significant ramp-up in network infrastructure and services spending among the Super 7 in 2017, incumbent vendors will likely experience volatility in the webscale market in 2018. Vendors are coping with a lower level of loyalty from webscale companies, when compared to their traditional customers, as they leverage contract manufacturers and/or their own design teams for new infrastructure. The success of ODMs such as Quanta, Arista, SuperMicro and Celestica, along with new efforts to capitalize on the webscale market from IT services providers, will further fragment the supplier landscape.

TBR’s Webscale ICT Market Landscape tracks the ICT-related initiatives of the seven largest webscale companies in the world, known as the Super 7, which includes Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Baidu, Facebook, Microsoft and Tencent. The report provides a market assessment, deep dives into company strategies and analyzes capex trends, particularly as they pertain to ICT. Vendors are also covered from the perspective of relative opportunities with webscale companies as customers.

 

Higher demand for cloud- and software-mediated network solutions drove stronger revenue among leading enterprise NIS suppliers

HAMPTON, N.H. (Jan. 11, 2018) — According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) 3Q17 Network Infrastructure Services Benchmark, migration to cloud- and software-mediated network infrastructure accelerated, spurring low-single-digit growth among benchmarked network infrastructure services (NIS) suppliers, including growth in all benchmarked services subsegments.

“The enterprise network is evolving as large enterprises, in particular, build cloud architectures to connect and control distributed branch locations more efficiently,” said TBR Analyst Patrick Filkins. “To align with this shift, NIS suppliers are driving engagements around professional services. Services-led suppliers, such as IBM and Accenture, are well positioned as vendor-agnostic NIS providers able to integrate and manage multi-vendor, multi-tenant architectures.”

Additionally, demand for professional services is spurring product-led suppliers, such as Cisco and Juniper Networks, to hire new talent for cloud- and SDN-related network rollouts and systems integration. This targeted investment in new headcount among product-centric suppliers will remain limited, though, as these companies will continue to rely on maintenance services to generate the bulk of NIS-related revenue.

TBR’s Network Infrastructure Services Benchmark provides quarterly analysis of network suppliers’ performance in the deployment, maintenance, professional services and managed services markets. Suppliers covered include Accenture, Avaya, Cisco, Dell EMC, Fujitsu, HPE, Huawei, IBM, Juniper Networks and Microsoft.

 

HITS vendors met a throng of sector-specific and external headwinds to round out 2017

HAMPTON, N.H. (Jan. 10, 2018) Healthcare IT services (HITS) trailing 12-month revenue continued to slow in 3Q17, falling to 3.8% in 3Q17 from 5.4% in 2Q17. The ongoing trend of decelerating sales growth owes largely to a dearth of strategic acquisitions by the HITS companies tracked by Technology Business Research, Inc. (TBR), turbulence in the U.S. payer market being drawn out by U.S. legislative inaction on proposed reforms to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and a series of natural disasters in North America during 3Q17 that impacted provider IT spending patterns.

“The ongoing absence of a legislative resolution to the ACA-reform process continues to generate significant downward pressure on sales in the health insurance sector,” said Senior Analyst John Caucis, TBR’s public sector and healthcare lead. “The M&A-generated tailwind on HITS revenue growth through 2016 has all but dissipated, save for Allscripts’ acquisition of McKesson Enterprise Information Solutions and a handful of smaller-scale acquisitions by Allscripts’ HITS counterparts. Compounding the impact of weak health payer IT spending on overall HITS growth were the natural disasters that occurred in 3Q17: hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, which impacted the Caribbean and the U.S., as well as a pair of earthquakes in Mexico.”

The final participant tally from the open-enrollment period that ran until Dec. 15, 2017 (8.8 million enrollees, down from 9.2 million in 2016), suggests the current lull in payer IT spending may persist, though a growing number of HITS vendors believe the IT investment trough among health insurers has been reached. Aside from the current solution focus on analytics, population health management and revenue cycle management, opportunities for HITS solutions, as well as advisory services, will emerge in 2018 in ambulatory and post-acute care, behavioral health, and employer services.

 

Equipment vendors continue to struggle with lower sales volume, while IT services and software-centric companies enjoy growth, thanks to digital

HAMPTON, N.H. (Jan. 5, 2018) — According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) 3Q17 Telecom Infrastructure Services Benchmark, leading vendors are making significant strategy changes and retrenching around their core competencies to weather subdued communication service provider (CSP) spend.

“Leading vendors are realizing they must transform themselves before they can effectively help their customers transform,” said TBR Telecom Senior Analyst Chris Antlitz. “New technologies and processes, particularly in the areas of cloud, artificial intelligence, cognitive analytics, automation and DevOps, promise significant agility, better outcomes and cost savings, and vendors must not only offer solutions that leverage these technologies to their customers but also adopt and employ these technologies internally to be credible, differentiate and remain competitive.”

Tier 1 network solution providers (NSPs) are going back to their product-led roots and doubling down on partnerships. Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia are all transitioning back to being product-led, which is an about-face from their prior strategy of being services-led. This strategy shift indicates that product-centric vendors have realized that the optimal go-to-market model is to stick to their core businesses and core competencies as much as possible and augment capabilities with partnerships.

TBR believes this strategy shift means NSPs will increase emphasis on product-attached services, which is their main telecom infrastructure services (TIS) profit pool, particularly maintenance services. This retrenchment by NSPs will also enable IT services companies to have a clearer path to capitalize on digital opportunities.

TBR’s Telecom Infrastructure Services Benchmark provides quarterly analysis of the deployment, maintenance, professional services and managed services markets for network and IT suppliers. Suppliers covered include Accenture, Amdocs, Atos, Capgemini, CGI, China Communications Services, Ciena, Cisco, CommScope, CSG International, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Huawei, IBM, Infosys, Juniper Networks, NEC, Nokia, Oracle, Samsung, SAP, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Wipro and ZTE.