NFV/SDN will account for over one-quarter of CSP capex and external opex spend in 2022

HAMPTON, N.H. — According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) latest NFV/SDN Telecom Market Forecast, covering 2017 to 2022, mainstream adoption of NFV/SDN is now set for the early 2020s due to operators encountering challenges with migration.

“Despite challenges, operators will push forward with NFV/SDN and will scale their investments in these technologies,” said TBR Telecom Senior Analyst Chris Antlitz. “Operators must transform to stay relevant and competitive in the digital era, and NFV/SDN is a critical component of that transformation.”

 

During the forecast period, 5G will also serve as an underlying catalyst for increased NFV/SDN spend. 5G will push operators to adopt a new network architecture, and virtualization will be a critical aspect of networks.

TBR’s annual NFV/SDN Telecom Market Forecast projects spend on NFV, SDN and related services across key segments globally and by region.

Additional research on the NFV and SDN markets can be found in TBR’s NFV/SDN Telecom Market Landscape and Telecom Software Mediated Networks (NFV/SDN) Customer Adoption Study, which cover the operator and vendor landscapes and operator purchasing decisions regarding NFV and SDN, respectively.

 

HCI vendors capitalize on digital transformation with private cloud adoption

HAMPTON, N.H. — In many ways, digital transformation equates to rising cloud adoption. Enterprises need the increased agility and flexibility that a cloud environment provides but also want the cost structure associated with cloud. However, new regulations on data sovereignty continue to emerge and security concerns are mounting as data becomes an increasingly valuable asset, creating challenges for enterprises seeking cloud environments. Hardware vendors that initially lost business to cloud providers revel in this shift, as clear markets for both public and private cloud enable infrastructure and services vendors to co-exist.

Despite the need for greater control and security of data, enterprises still demand the agility and flexibility afforded by cloud environments and are increasingly demanding opex-based consumption models. Insights from TBR’s recently published 1H18 Hyperconverged Platforms Customer Research report further detail these trends and the impact they will likely have on the data center infrastructure and cloud markets.

Many customers purchasing HCI are doing so for cloud environments

More than 90% of hyperconverged infrastructure (HCI) customers surveyed in TBR’s 1H18 Hyperconverged Platforms Customer Research are leveraging or will leverage HCI for cloud installments: 54% are leveraging HCI for hybrid cloud, 30% are leveraging HCI for private cloud, and 8% are not currently leveraging HCI for cloud but intend to do so in the future. HCI is well-suited for the cloud as it is highly software-enabled, making spinning it into a private cloud relatively seamless compared to traditional infrastructure environments. Further, HCI sales tend to be more supported with services than legacy infrastructure sales, enabling customers to experience a more collaborative sale. Findings from 1H18 Hyperconverged Platforms Customer Research indicate 59% of respondents purchased their HCI solution direct from the vendor, while 62% of respondents received or requested additional hardware services, such as firmware and break-fix, with their HCI purchase.

HCI is a lucrative opportunity for vendors as it combines hardware, software and services into a single sale, increasing margins for hardware vendors and enabling vendors to leverage strategic marketing to sell across their entire portfolio stack rather than one-off piecemeal hardware sales. Further, many HCI vendors successfully bundle additional non-HCI sales on top of HCI purchases, as a customer already strongly considering a given vendor’s HCI architecture is likely to consider other solutions in the portfolio. Respondents in the 1H18 Hyperconverged Platforms Customer Research indicated they frequently make additional hardware purchases with HCI sales. However, these additional hardware sales were not necessarily associated with the HCI appliance, with customers purchasing additional hardware for their data centers in many cases. This suggests a broad portfolio is paramount to enterprise success as IT shops look to reduce the number of suppliers they manage while seeking hardware components to maintain existing infrastructure requirements of legacy workloads and building out new environments for native cloud workloads. This will prove advantageous for multiline vendors in the space such as Lenovo, Dell EMC and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) but will challenge niche vendors such as NetApp and Pivot3.

 

The rise in consumption-based pricing makes HCI more desirable for cloud installments

Of 1H18 Hyperconverged Platforms Customer Research respondents, 81% are considering consumption-based pricing models for future HCI purchases. The reasons for considering consumption-based pricing vary, with less than one-third of respondents doing so for the shift to an opex model alone, indicating that purchasing decisions are more complex than simply to shift expense structures. However, customers are still intrigued by these new pricing options.

 

The more interest increases for consumption-based HCI purchases, the greater challenges public cloud vendors will face from infrastructure vendors. Dell EMC and HPE both have a strong presence in the consumption-based pricing space, and there are other infrastructure vendors playing in this space less vocally. Competing will be a challenge for public cloud providers as infrastructure vendors message increased security and control without cost increases to battle public cloud options.

There will always be a place for both public and private cloud in the data center market

Although competition will continue to heat up between public cloud and private cloud vendors as evolving market dynamics alter messaging, the need for both installments in the digitizing world will remain. However, as economics become more favorable on the private cloud side, partly due to HCI and consumption-based pricing, customers may consider private cloud options for workloads they previously would have considered a public cloud environment.

For additional information about this research or to arrange a one-on-one analyst briefing, please contact Dan Demers at +1 603.929.1166 or [email protected].

 

Leading operators are accelerating their 5G timetables, justifying the investment due to the competitive advantage 5G technology provides

HAMPTON, N.H. — The efficiency gains offered by 5G are spurring operators to accelerate their deployment timeframes, according to TBR’s 3Q18 5G Telecom Market Landscape.

“5G is up to 10 times more efficient on a cost-per-gigabyte basis compared to LTE,” said TBR Telecom Senior Analyst Chris Antlitz. “This is the driving force behind most operator commitments to deploy the technology thus far. With data traffic continuing to scale globally, operators will need to invest in new technologies, such as 5G, that can help them more cost-effectively support that traffic while providing an overall better quality of experience for their customers.”

 

TBR estimates over 85% of 5G capex spend through 2020 will be driven by operators in four countries: the U.S., China, Japan and South Korea. Most Tier 1 operators in these countries have aggressive 5G rollout timetables and intend to leverage the technology for fixed wireless broadband and/or to support their mobile broadband densification initiatives. The seamless software upgradability of new RAN platforms to 5G will facilitate deployment at incremental cost, keeping overall spend scaling quickly but at a relatively low level compared to prior RAN generation upgrades.

TBR’s 5G Telecom Market Landscape tracks the 5G-related initiatives of leading operators and vendors worldwide. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global 5G ecosystem and includes insights pertaining to market development, market sizing, use cases, adoption, regional trends, and operator and vendor positioning and strategies.

 

The exaggerated expectations created by IoT hype play a big role in how vendors approach IoT in 2018, for better or worse

HAMPTON, N.H. — Internet of Things (IoT) vendors are succeeding by focusing on business problems, not transformation, according to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) 3Q18 Commercial IoT Market Landscape. Shane O’Callaghan of TSM Control Systems, a PTC customer, explained it at LiveWorx2018 in the most straightforward manner: “IoT is not a technology project; it’s a business project.” TBR believes leading vendors are gaining market traction because they are molding their IoT go-to-market strategies around solving tactical business problems with solutions proved by case studies.

Vendors that focus on technical aspects are unlikely to gain breakthrough success and will be relegated to being component suppliers to vendors more engaged with customers at a business-problem-solving level. At LiveWorx 2018, PTC CEO Jim Heppelmann told analysts PTC may have been looking too far forward, focusing on cutting-edge technology, and had trouble explaining IoT to customers and how its platform, ThingWorx, would improve outcomes.

Like PTC, some vendors appear to be caught between trying to evolve from a component-positioned, technical-messaging vendor and a vendor trying to solve business problems. And many vendors are struggling to rise above the messaging of more successful peers or put a unique twist on their solutions to differentiate them amid an increasingly saturated and hypercompetitive market.

In its 3Q18 Commercial IoT Market Landscape, TBR deeply examined paths vendors are taking to evolve.

  • Emphasizing partnering is one approach most vendors use. Partners are critical because most IoT projects include components from several vendors, and very few of those vendors have a relationship with the customer.
  • Increasingly, IoT is embedded in both hardware and software products from independent hardware vendors (IHVs) and independent software vendors (ISVs), respectively. IT vendors are leveraging large- and small-scale ISVs and IHVs to bring their technologies to a broader market beyond providing custom solutions.
  • Some vendors are narrowing their focus and messaging to verticals in which their expertise matches the challenges experienced in the vertical.
  • Some vendors are beginning to sell off underperforming business units or looking for attractive acquisitions in their areas of focus. TBR expects 2018 to be a year of consolidation and acquisition activity.

The 3Q18 Commercial IoT Market Landscape looks at technologies and trends of the commercial IoT market. Additionally, TBR catalogs and analyzes by vertical more than 350 customer deals, uncovering use trends, identifying opportunities, examining maturity, and discussing drivers and inhibitors.

TIS margins declined in 2017 as vendors invested in service delivery evolution, including automation, tools and training

HAMPTON, N.H. — According to Technology Business Research Inc.’s (TBR) 2017 Telecom Infrastructure Services (TIS) Margin Benchmark, Tier 1 telecom vendor average TIS margins declined year-to-year in 2017 due mainly to restructuring at Ericsson, though growing investment in R&D, particularly for professional services, also had an impact.

“Vendors invested in service delivery evolution to stay ahead of adverse TIS market trends, such as legacy decommissioning and growing SI complexity,” said TBR Telecom Senior Analyst Michael Soper. “Professional services in particular is a focus area for vendors as they invest in tools and training to cope with increasing network complexity.”

Ericsson’s restructuring impacted all facets of its services business, driving margins down across the board. The company’s contract exit and rescoping activity hurt margins in 2017, but will enable Ericsson to emerge on better footing by the end of restructuring in 2019.

Except for Ericsson, vendors grew their maintenance margins, offsetting the impact of legacy infrastructure decommissioning with an influx of support revenue for recently deployed gear in China. Vendors are investing in automation in this space to sustain high margins where the full impact of legacy decommissioning and software-mediated networking are felt.

TBR’s 2017 Telecom Infrastructure Services Margin Benchmark provides annual analysis of deployment services, maintenance services, professional services and managed services margins for Tier 1 telecom suppliers. Suppliers covered include Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia and ZTE.

Carriers are focused on supporting hybrid and multicloud environments as more customers integrate solutions from multiple providers

HAMPTON, N.H. (July 18, 2018) — According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) Carrier Cloud Market Forecast 2017-2022, total Cloud as a Service revenue from the telecom market rose an estimated 13.5% year-to-year to $6.5 billion in 2017, driven by portfolio and geographic expansion. However, TBR projects revenue growth will decelerate to an 8.8% CAGR through 2022 as webscale providers become more dominant in the market. Though carriers have launched new native public cloud platforms over the past several years, such as Orange’s Flexible Engine and Deutsche Telekom’s Open Telekom Cloud, these offerings have not been able to slow customer demand for webscale solutions from providers such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft and Google that are becoming staple services for businesses.

“Carrier cloud providers will emphasize hybrid and multicloud solutions over the next five years as customers look for integrated suites and ties to existing network and IT assets,” said TBR Analyst Steve Vachon. “Carriers are focused on fostering deeper interoperability and accessibility to webscale solutions to support hybrid and multicloud environments and bolster revenue from value-added services as well as from network platforms such as SD-WAN and IP-VPN.”

TBR’s market forecast also examines how carriers are integrating emerging technologies to enhance their cloud portfolios. Total other cloud (which includes SaaS, PaaS and BPaaS) revenue from the telecom market increased an estimated 16.2% year-to-year to $2.2 billion in 2017, driven by the adoption of services including unified communications, CRM and office productivity solutions. These workloads will become more deeply integrated with artificial intelligence and analytics capabilities over the next several years, which will create new cross-selling opportunities for carriers. Carriers are also integrating NFV and SDN technologies to enhance their enterprise solutions, enabling operators to offer a more agile cloud portfolio that can be delivered with greater quality of service to customers on demand.

 

1Q18 device revenue results were boosted by market shifts and increasing ASPs in PCs and smartphones compared to a weaker 1Q17

HAMPTON, N.H. (July 13, 2018) — Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) 1Q18 Devices and Platforms Benchmark finds that there is ongoing revenue opportunity in both the PC and smartphone markets. Total benchmarked revenue increased 15.9% year-to-year to $112 billion despite indications of saturation in the high end of the PC market.

Total PC benchmarked revenue increased 12% year-to-year to $32 billion. Total PC benchmarked gross profit increased 10.4% year-to-year to $5 billion despite increasing component costs. “Despite speculation that the PC market is dead, major device OEMs have been able to successfully navigate the shifting market and generate healthy profits,” said TBR Analyst Dan Callahan. “Renewed appetite for premium PCs in enterprise — and PC OEMs shifting their go-to-market strategies to respond — has been the primary driver.”

Total benchmarked smartphone revenue increased 11% year-to-year to $72 billion. Total smartphone benchmarked gross profit increased 14.8% year-to-year to $23 billion. Smartphone OEMs are combating worldwide saturation by increasing average selling prices (ASPs). Apple’s gamble with a $1,000 smartphone paid off, as customers responded with demand, and Android peers are following suit.

Device as Service (DaaS), an expansion of the former PC as a Service market, is transforming into an offering aimed at supplanting traditional PC financing. The benchmark explores how HP Inc. was the first of the big three PC OEMs to capitalize on the emerging opportunity and has been the first with concrete outbound messaging to partners and customers. This has afforded the company a lead, but it is not cemented. Dell Technologies and Lenovo will use the path HP Inc. paved to introduce DaaS to the market and quickly solidify their own unique solutions. Lenovo and HP Inc. see opportunity beyond the PC in PC as a Service, thus the introduction of DaaS.

The DaaS opportunity remains mostly untapped. Customers and partners are still trying to understand how this service differs from traditional financing and are still kicking the tires on the analytics often attached by OEMs as the main selling point of DaaS.

TBR’s Devices and Platforms Benchmark provides insight on interrelated ecosystems, including device vendors, platform providers, supplier relations, and technology partners across the consumer and commercial spaces. TBR’s vendor-centric analysis speaks to industry trends, while market sizing illustrates opportunity. Our Devices and Platforms research includes PC, tablet and smartphone vendors; platform providers; and technology partners.

 

NFV and SDN begin to yield cost savings and prepare carriers to be competitive in the digital era

HAMPTON, N.H. (July 3, 2018) — Commercial deployments of NFV and SDN are aggressively moving forward, with nearly all leading Tier 1 operators having adopted or planning to adopt NFV and/or SDN by the end of this year, according to Technology Business Research Inc.’s (TBR) 1H18 Telecom Software Mediated Networks (NFV/SDN) Customer Adoption Study.

“The cost savings of network virtualization and automation is becoming more evident,” said TBR Telecom Senior Analyst Michael Soper. “Carriers are leveraging NFV and SDN capabilities, as well as integrating cognitive technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to evolve to a zero-touch network that can automate performance management and maintenance functions to prevent network faults and reduce expenses. The industry is in the very early stages of this trend.”

WAN virtualization is a top priority for service providers as they implement solutions including SD-WAN and WAN optimization into their portfolios. Service provider revenue growth from software-mediated network services, particularly SD-WAN, is accelerating, but the lion’s share of WAN revenue continues to stem from traditional services such as MPLS.

The supplier landscape shows incumbent vendors, particularly hardware suppliers, remain entrenched with service providers, but face disruption within certain use cases and with respect to commoditization. The study indicates incumbent hardware providers are best-positioned for providing NFV and SDN solutions across domains, with startups, open source players and cloud-centric vendors infrequently mentioned by respondents. Still, incumbents will face disruption with respect to certain VNFs, such as vEPC and vRAN, and the most significant threat remains hardware pricing, the area in which the overwhelming majority of respondents expect to see cost savings due to commoditization and the shift in spend to the software layer.

As the software-mediated market matures, software-centric vendors will be better-positioned than hardware-focused competitors. Additionally, vendors with highly automated service delivery and remote delivery capabilities can help service providers reduce opex tied to NFV and SDN.

TBR’s Telecom Software Mediated Networks (NFV/SDN) Customer Adoption Study provides an in-depth examination of how operators are planning, preparing and executing to succeed in the NFV and SDN market. TBR surveyed 25 of the leading Tier 1 telecom service providers worldwide to gain insight into their NFV and SDN adoption plans. The study includes insight into service provider strategy, as well as service providers’ perceptions of supplier positioning and key benefits and obstacles.

 

Telecom vendors anticipate revenue from 5G in select countries as early as 2H18, but lower China capex drove market decline in 1Q18

HAMPTON, N.H. (June 29, 2018) According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) 1Q18 Telecom Vendor Benchmark, the conclusion of LTE coverage projects in China hampered revenue for the largest vendors. A reduction in demand from telecom operators for routing and switching products also caused revenue to decline for Cisco, Juniper and Nokia. In this market downturn, vendors are employing various strategies to maintain margins and mitigate revenue declines while eyeing initial commercial 5G rollouts, which are set to begin in the U.S. in 2H18.
 
“Suppliers are trying to sell into the IT environments of operators, engaging with the webscale customer segment, and expanding software portfolios to partially offset falling telecom operator capex,” said TBR Telecom Senior Analyst Michael Soper. “The shift in the revenue mix toward software is also helping vendors maintain operating margins in spite of lower hardware volume. Vendors are also growing their use of automation and artificial intelligence in service delivery to improve profitability by reducing their reliance on human resources.”
 
Western-based vendors are preparing their portfolios to build out 5G for U.S.-based operators in 2H18. Several operators have aggressive 5G rollout timetables and intend to leverage the technology for fixed wireless broadband and/or to support their mobile broadband densification initiatives. Vendors that have high exposure to the U.S. and are well aligned with market trends such as 5G, media convergence and digital transformation will likely increase market share over the next two years as operators in the region are expected to aggressively invest in these areas starting in 2H18.
 
The Telecom Vendor Benchmark details and compares the initiatives and tracks the revenue and performance of the largest telecom vendors in segments including infrastructure, services and applications and in geographies including the Americas, EMEA and APAC. The report includes information on market leaders, vendor positioning, vendor market share, key deals, acquisitions, alliances, go-to-market strategies and personnel developments.
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For additional information about this research or to arrange a one-on-one analyst briefing, please contact Dan Demers at +1 603.929.1166 or [email protected].

 

ABOUT TBR

Technology Business Research, Inc. is a leading independent technology market research and consulting firm specializing in the business and financial analyses of hardware, software, professional services, and telecom vendors and operators. Serving a global clientele, TBR provides timely and actionable market research and business intelligence in a format that is uniquely tailored to clients’ needs. Our analysts are available to address client-specific issues further or information needs on an inquiry or proprietary consulting basis.

TBR has been empowering corporate decision makers since 1996. For more information please visit www.tbri.com.

Converging trends enable software and IT services firms to continue to grow despite lower operator capex

HAMPTON, N.H. (June 27, 2018) — According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) 1Q18 Telecom Infrastructure Services Benchmark, post-peak RAN spend drove down telecom infrastructure services (TIS) revenue in local currency terms at some of the largest vendors including Ericsson, Huawei and Nokia. Meanwhile, software- and services-centric firms grew revenue as they capitalized on digitalization trends and/or provided outsourcing and C&SI to operators and webscales alike.

“Operators’ push toward ICT convergence and digitalization sets IT services firms up for continued growth,” said TBR Telecom Senior Analyst Michael Soper. “IT services firms are able to help telecom and webscale customers migrate to new technologies and implement new business models, both of which are in high demand as these companies pursue digital transformation.”

Webscale spend remains robust, but TIS work is confined to certain segments of vendors. Webscales seek out cutting-edge technology and typically contract with the OEM for product-attached services. Companies benefitting from this process include Ciena, which is providing optical equipment to webscales, and Nokia, which has many opportunities to sell into webscales with its end-to-end optical portfolio, premium IP routing and switching products. IT services firms, particularly Accenture, are providing back-office outsourcing and software SI.

Vendors with high exposure to the U.S. market and those that are well-aligned with market trends such as 5G, media convergence and digital transformation will likely increase their share of the TIS market over the next two years, as TBR expects operators in the region to aggressively invest in these areas starting in 2H18.

TBR’s Telecom Infrastructure Services Benchmark provides quarterly analysis of the deployment, maintenance, professional services and managed services markets for network and IT suppliers. Suppliers covered include Accenture, Amdocs, Atos, Capgemini, CGI, China Communications Services, Ciena, Cisco, CommScope, CSG International, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Huawei, IBM, Infosys, Juniper Networks, NEC, Nokia, Oracle, Samsung, SAP, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Wipro and ZTE.