Revisiting TBR’s 2025 Predictions: What We Got Right (and Wrong) About IT Infrastructure and Digital Transformation

How accurate were TBR’s 2025 predictions for the IT infrastructure market and digital transformation efforts? In this episode of “TBR Talks,” TBR IT Infrastructure Principal Analyst Angela Lambert and TBR Digital Transformation Principal Analyst Boz Hristov share how they and their teams look at the future of their respective IT market segments.

A mix of retrospective and forward-looking thoughts about 2026 and beyond, this episode offers insights into what the team got right in their predictions for 2025 and what they anticipate will come next. AI servers, unified data, AI services, strategy consulting and how AI is impacting the services business model are all topics on the table.

Prediction checks:

• Did infrastructure vendors’ focus shift from cloud to AI?

• Did digital transformation come roaring back?

• Did infrastructure vendors gain relevance in the AI partner ecosystem?

• Did the companies that made the right bets on ecosystems outpace the competition?

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Edited by Haley Demers

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Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy

Revisiting TBR’s 2025 Predictions: What We Got Right (and Wrong) About IT Infrastructure and Digital Transformation

TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors. 

I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be revisiting 2025 Infrastructure, Ecosystems, and Digital Transformation predictions with Angela Lambert, Principal Analyst for TBR’s IT Infrastructure and Devices practice, and Boz Hristov, Principal Analyst for TBR’s Digital Transformation practice. 

Prediction check: did infrastructure vendors’ focus shift from cloud to AI?

Angela and Boz, thank you very much for coming back to TBR Talks. This is our- do you want to say that, you know, you’re happy to be here?

Angela Lambert, TBR Principal Analyst: I’m thrilled to be here.

Bozhidar Hristov, TBR Principal Analyst: Always excited.

Patrick: Excellent. Oh my God, the sarcasm in everybody’s voice this afternoon as we record. 

All: *laughs* 

Patrick: Lovely. So, well, welcome back. We’re doing something a little different this year. We’re going to talk about predictions early, and by that, I mean the predictions we made at this time last year as we prepare for predictions going into this year. We’re going to talk about what you said. We’re also going to talk about the process. How, as analysts that have decades plus under your belts, how your process of making predictions every year has changed, and then what you anticipate is going to change this year as you look at predictions. But what we’re going to do, we’re going to go through a couple of predictions that each of you made and talk about whether or not they panned out in 2025 and how we anticipate that’s going to change maybe for next year as well. 

So, let’s start with this one. Angela, you made the prediction that infrastructure vendors focus will shift from serving cloud companies to making a massive push in enterprise AI. Did that actually happen? Did we see the shift? And were any companies significantly leading now or any left behind?

Angela: I would say yes and no on the degree to which this happened. So obviously, no one’s leaving behind the CSPs and the GPU-as-a-Service farms here in terms of wanting to serve those client bases. I do think we saw a lot of movement on preparing the enterprise for more AI adoption. I think the degree to which the enterprises themselves moved on, it was maybe slower than we would have expected. However, you know, we saw motions like storage vendors, like Pure Storage and NetApp, you know, getting much more focused on data platforms that can help enable AI. We’ve seen a lot of storage systems fine-tune for AI, and we’ve seen a lot more just general, I think, focus and participation on how enterprises can prepare their data. So, the year before was all about, you know, just flashing kind of these impressive servers around, and it got a little bit more tactical in terms of how are we actually going to help enterprises achieve these goals.

Patrick: And when the infrastructure providers talk about data with enterprises, are they talking about the cleanliness, the orchestration, the storage of that data, or are they more just talking about sort of volume and the need to provide the capacity to handle data?

Angela: I think for them right now they’re still focused on a little bit on speeds and feeds, right? Like we can get this blazing fast and get it, you know, maximize your investment in your really expensive AI servers by having storage power that can match that. But there is also this idea of unifying data that is not unified today. So that’s certainly another theme there.

Patrick: And you mentioned Pure Storage and NetApp. Were there any other infrastructure providers that sort of stood out over the course of 2025?

Angela: You know, I think HP has had a very clear enterprise focus on their AI strategy. So, I would say certainly them and interested to see how that continues to change as they’ve acquired Juniper and have kind of a unique network forward approach compared to some of the others.

Patrick: It sounds like you’re preparing for your predictions for 2026 with that.

Angela: Maybe I am. 

Patrick: Maybe you are. 

Prediction check: did digital transformation come roaring back?

All right, Boz. One of your predictions was that transformation comes roaring back. You said that after declaring digital transformation dead a few years ago and witnessing the past 18 months of GenAI hype centered on cost takeout and efficiency enhancing use cases, that we anticipate enterprise IT buyers and their C-suite bosses will pivot in 2025 to large-scale digital transformations and business model reinventions supported by spending on strategy consulting. Did that happen? Did we see an uptick in strategy consulting, but more importantly, did we see that pivot away from, or less concentration on cost takeout and more concentration on business model reinvention and digital transformation?

Boz: I think all the flavors happened over 2025 and continue to happen. Now, strategy consulting in its pure form continues to face headwinds. And I think all the management consultancies that have as a core capability, aside from McKinsey and BCG and Bain and the Big Four, they have realized that some of them are further along in terms of diversifying and expanding their portfolio offerings and capabilities. So, they are rarely trying to sell strategy consulting for strategy consulting’s sake. They are trying to permeate the technology element in their discussions much sooner, much faster, either as an enabling tool, now with using agents or otherwise, or they’re trying to steer the conversation that will provide them as an entry point for maybe driving systems integration services or managed services for that matter. Maybe not McKinsey, but some of the Big Four are a little bit leaning that direction. 

So, while the strategy consultants- consulting revenue continue to face the headwind that I mentioned, I think the business, the digital transformation roaring back is roaring back in terms of, you know, again, depending on the client. We saw some clients that were- I would consider laggards, take the insurance industry or some of the financial services, maybe some public sector, public services clients. They were a little bit behind in terms of adopting and thinking about moving along the way from on-prem to a cloud infrastructure. They are starting to come moving a little bit faster. So, you can argue that maybe the transformation was happening more for them, for the more digitally mature enterprises, there was a little bit more of that reinvention business model, kind of a transformation, sort of like a little bit kind of different flavors, new words being used by consultancies to do exactly the same thing. 

We know there’s still a large opportunity around SAP S/4 migration. So, that’s still happening, which I think a lot of the companies are capitalizing on. The other part of the roaring back for digital transformation made us starting at this point is opportunities within the mid-market. So, kind of going beyond the large enterprises. And that obviously requires a different engagement model for consultancies and the services providers than they- kind of like a delivery models. So, net-net, maybe not the full extent, but looking at the overall market performance, company performance, we saw an uptick in performance of the IT services companies compared to 2024. We are trading up into more in the low to mid-single digits as a market. Everyone is trying to move up further along, you know, more in the upper mid-single or even aspiration in double-digit growth. That double-digit growth, it will be a while before it happens, if ever. But that’s maybe for another prediction to talk about. But that’s just the way we see the market. So certainly an improvement with companies taking different approaches that are trying to capture some of the rebound in certain pockets of the market.

Patrick: So, the overall idea that digital transformation is no longer dead, the companies are trying to make this business model reinvention that they are trying to use all the tools that are available now to do revenue growth, not just cost cutting. That’s all true, yeah?

Boz: For the enterprises, again, I’ll split those in two camps, the leaders and laggards. The leaders are more looking at the revenue growth. The laggards are trying to catch up. And I think it’s the vendors are kind of victims of their own success, so to speak, because the focus, especially with blending and balancing the messaging around what GenAI can do for the companies, for the buyers, and what it does for them, and so much more focus on improving productivity has left some of them kind of hanging and not making a shift towards let’s do something more with our productivity. How are we capturing the productivity improvements from terms of dollars and budgets and how are we reinvesting back for growth? So, I think this is the biggest opportunity that I think if 2025 was a learning experience, I think I want to see more of that conversation happen in 2026. So, kind of like I’m shifting the timeline, I guess, from a growth perspective, but that’s just the nature because I think services companies are, and some buyers are tired of proof of concepts. I think that kind of just got grinded to the ground and nobody wants to talk about POCs anymore. I mean, they still are, but I think enough is enough. Everybody knows about all the use cases around, you know, customer experience and software automation and supply chain and procurement. We all heard them, right? Now it’s what do you do with that? How do you drive the business to grow?

Patrick: Right.

Boz: And I think that’s going to come on both sides. So opportunity for the vendors on the vendor side is like, can they use and can they convince the buyers that those savings that they generate as a result of using some tools, AI, GenAI, whatever flavor of AI you want to say, can they reinvest and reinvest in what’s important with them? That’s the big question. Or are they going to look at their partners? Are they going to look at their shareholders? Or they’re just going to cut back on their budgets? So, we’re going to- we shall find out.

Patrick: So, you’re previewing one of your predictions for 2026 right there.

Boz: A little bit of that, yes.

Patrick: Should have known I was walking into this trap. 

Boz: *laughs*

Prediction check: did infrastructure vendors gain relevance in the AI partner ecosystem?

Patrick: All right, Angela, back to you here. Back to talking about infrastructure for a bit. One of the predictions you made was infrastructure vendors will gain relevance in AI partner ecosystems. So, you said having learned their lessons from being slow to adapt to hybrid cloud in years past, infrastructure vendors are working much more rapidly to build out partner ecosystems that will enable a wide range of AI use cases, including those leveraging public cloud. I think one of the challenges that we always have as analysts is we think that companies and vendors have learned their lessons, but maybe they haven’t. Are the infrastructure vendors still moving too slowly, or did they learn their lessons?

Angela: I think there’s certainly been lessons learned and everyone can always move more quickly. But to me, it’s really at like the DNA level of a mindset in previous times that was very focused on keeping the customer entirely in your ecosystem. And that I do think has really shifted to more of an openness, more of an acknowledgement and embracing that particularly with AI workloads, that will be an edge to data center to cloud type of arrangement. And I do think that OEMs have at least embraced, on some of those elements, deepening their public cloud partnerships, establishing new data-related partnerships that didn’t exist before. Boz and Patrick, you could probably tell me how things have changed on the services side, maybe a little less so there. I think more on the technology partnerships, yes, I do think that there’s been a whole host of new partnerships established this year, but maybe you two would have seen different perspectives depending on the partnerships you’re looking at.

Patrick: Boz, you go first on that, and then I’ll weigh in.

Boz: Different partners, different ecosystems. I think it’s, there’s two parts of it, the way we’ve seen it. It’s one is the expansion and grow, well, I guess there’s different kind of phases. One is growing the, kind of the, within the ecosystem that you currently have, can you do more with your existing partners, and now it’s looking at expanding your ecosystem with, you know, if you are services providers, who else can help me? I mean, you mentioned the data side, you know, the Snowflakes, the Databricks of the world; those are obviously partners that are becoming ever more important, but then you look at the next phase. So now we look at OpenAI and Palantir and Anthropic and all these companies are kind of becoming mainstream names and kind of like household names when it comes to AI and agentic AI. I think we’re going to see more of that. And we’ve seen some of the vendors being a little bit more aggressive in their relationship and trying to kind of build a beachhead in those, and investing in developing resources and skill and certifications and really trying to go to market together, either specific industries or just a kind of like a horizontal functional area. 

The other thing from a partner ecosystem is the expansion of the ecosystem from a two-dimensional to three- and multi-dimensional relationship. That’s the other part of the equation where we keep seeing and hearing about how there’s more opportunity for services companies to be positioned more as an orchestrator and bringing together, you know, if it’s EY bringing Dell and NVIDIA and Microsoft and SAP together in one mix, right, for the customer. So, I think  there’s an opportunity for that kind of a relationship. We have been discussing probably for the better part of the last two years at least, if not more than that, for that multi-party alliance construct. It’s challenging when you’re talking about at the enterprise white level, but it certainly has a strong use cases application when it comes to specific line of business, fewer disruption, very specific, deep knowledge and function and industry specialization that can be applied. Usually that’s where the budgets are, then the line of business, that’s where it starts. So, you got to position it the right way that you are the preferred partner with XYZ sub-partners and you kind of go kind of that GC approach and it both back down now. It’s easier said for us then down for the partners because you got to think about the commercials, the accountability, the execution and all these other things that come along with it. But those are the couple of areas that we’ve seen the ecosystem evolving.

Patrick: I think too to this specific point, how well do services companies and consultancies, IT services companies, consultancies partner with infrastructure providers? I think part of it is that we’ve seen the IT services companies and consultancies expand their view of what their ecosystem is. I mean, five, six, seven years ago, it used to be your ecosystem was the cloud vendors, your ISVs, the SAPs of the world, and then you were really out there if you included like a university.

Boz: Right.

Patrick: Or if you thought about academics and NGOs in your ecosystem, well, you had an expansive view of the world. That is finally starting to change. And I think the IT services companies and the consultancies are recognizing that there is an opportunity to talk to someone different at their client by bringing in an infrastructure partner. The challenge still remains, Boz, exactly what you said around the commercials of it. And honestly, the how do you tell the difference between, I’m guessing you can’t tell the difference between the Big Four firms, Angela, and we cannot tell the difference between the infrastructure providers. 

Angela: *laughs*

Patrick: And that has to change at those companies themselves, not just here at TBR. 

Prediction check: did the companies that made the right bets on ecosystems outpace competition?

And Boz, that actually teed up perfectly the last prediction that we’ll talk about today. And that was, you said the most successful IT services companies and consultancies will be the ones that partner best. You said, further, those companies and firms needed to demonstrate differentiation to their enterprise clients and critically their technology ecosystem partners. Exactly what we were just saying. Some could, some couldn’t. In 2025, the IT services vendors and consultancies that make the right strategic bets on the best fit ecosystem partners will outpace peers. So, who did and who didn’t? And then maybe more importantly, other than just naming names, did the strategies that you thought would work best for those companies actually turn out to be the things that they needed to do?

Boz: I’d say companies should continue to test, they have some best practices, no doubt. I mean, we’ve seen, if you kinda- the three layer approach that we’ve seen the most consistent across the vendors is leadership alignment, kind of like seeing the vision and aligning with what the priorities are. The second one is around co-development in terms of portfolio investment and skills and just trying to really go as close as possible and make sure you have the right people, the right portfolio that supports that vision. And the kind of foundational layer, which without it, I think the first two are really not going to go much further, is around knowledge management. So that’s kind of the three-legged stool on the successful partner strategy. And that knowledge management is what’s separating some of the more successful vendors than others. But again, it’s really important, like how deep you go on the first two, because that will enable and force you to do a better knowledge management and how you educate your partners, how do you ensure you have the sales enablement to mean- and how they are equipped with and they can tell your story as good as you can tell yours. So, I think this is where rubber meets the road kind of thing and we’ve seen and we constantly get questions from our clients and a lot of them come from within the ecosystem about from technology side, from services vendors and vice versa. How can we go better together, right? What do we, what should we do about, you know, gaining so-and-so’s attention, right? So, how- that’s just the kind of a constant, how can we force, you know, how can we make sure that an SI sells more of our infrastructure and how can we maybe get on the infrastructure provider’s radar? So, if we are services provider maybe on the BPO side and try to go upstream and go into the IT side of it. So, it goes both ways. So, I think this is kind of like where we’ve seen some of the success. 

Probably some of the more successful ones that we’ve seen and we measure that are some of the top, the kind of the more larger SIs, I would say the, like I said, the Deloitte’s, the Accenture’s of the world, the Capgemini’s of the world. We’ve seen definitely a really strong progress from KPMG as well as one of the firms that has really done really good progress when it comes to how they manage the ecosystem. EY certainly has placed some strong bets on a select few vendors that is really investing deep along the way. Some changes for the better on the IBM side as well, because it’s trying to kind of pivot away from that big blue first kind of mentality. Still some work to do, but we’ve seen some good feedback. 

Overall, just to kind of fall back on our data and research for a moment, from our Voice of the Partner research when we survey partners, what they think of each other and kind of satisfaction, pretty much all the service providers have strong satisfaction scores from their cloud and software partners as well as the OEM partners. Some have more of a neutral view on each other, but overall positive sentiment. But we do see, like I said, some of those few names that have made some really good progress, both on the financial side, the performance side, as well as just the perception that it’s evolving, it’s actually making and compelling others to get attached to that two-dimensional ecosystem, right? So, I mentioned Deloitte, you know, really strong relationship with AWS, and now Snowflake is trying to go along that side as well. I mean, it’s just kind of going kind of three-way set up. EY I mentioned with Dell and NVIDIA, and then you know Microsoft, so there’s that. That’s what’s, these are kind of qualitative KPIs in a way that’s measuring success, but there’s a few examples that come to mind.

Patrick: Yeah, and I think just thinking about all the research that we’ve done over the last year around the ecosystem and not only the Voice of the Partner, but all the different ecosystem reports. And then I know our cloud team has a new report out now looking at the ecosystem very specifically from the hyperscaler angle. I think that’s where we’re able to now, because the prediction was the most successful IT services companies and consultancies will be the ones that partner best. And what the hell is best? 

Boz: Right.

Patrick: So, I think now we’ve actually got, to your point, a lot more quantitative analysis behind what exactly best means. 

Boz: Yep.

The predictions process and how AI changes and doesn’t change it

Patrick: So excellent. Let’s pivot here now to not giving predictions for 2026. We’ll do that later in another podcast, but instead looking at how you go about making predictions, the thought process, the research that you do before you sit down and say, okay, this is what I’m predicting for the coming year. And then importantly now to think about how artificial intelligence will or won’t change your process, influence your process, be incorporated into your process. With sort of the idea that artificial intelligence by its nature is, you know, GenAI is more backwards looking. It’s pulling from the past to make a prediction about the future. Whereas what, and you tell me in your process, you’re not just relying on the information that’s in a large language model in your head. You’re relying on more than that. And so, if you could maybe talk a little bit about how that process works and then how you anticipate a change, or maybe don’t anticipate a change this year. Who wants to go first?

Angela: I’ll give a crack at it. 

Patrick: Alright.

Angela: So, step one, you make a huge coffee. 

All: *laughs*

Angela: Well, I think to me, there’s a couple components to the time of year when, you know, it’s time for the TBR analysts to start making their predictions. First and foremost, you know of course, our teams, right? So, it’s getting together with the team, talking about where we’re at now with prevailing market trends like we would in any given quarter, but also looking at market signals. We look at the comparison of what we’ve learned throughout the year in attending vendor events, what they’ve been saying at all of their big customer events, reading between the lines on the quarterly transcripts, and financial performance. So, we’re looking at the messaging of vendors in the market, but we’re trying to compare that against what we see from customers and importantly, what we’ve seen from actual performance financially, where really the rubber meets the road. So, we love to discuss all those things as a team and bring out our most skeptical of opinions as we do that.

Patrick: And then do you think, do you anticipate incorporating any of our in-house AI tools into your effort this year? Or does it shape, or are you reluctant to, or how do you feel about that part of it?

Angela: I will really look forward to having tools now that can look back across everything we’ve written, published in the past year or longer and kind of query topics against that, you know. And what are the most common things that our team talked about this year? How did that compare to what we’ve seen? And going forward, what’s that going to look like? So, I think it’s going to help us a lot in terms of identifying maybe what trends have been talked about the most and what we should assess going forward. So, that’s definitely one way I’d do it. How about you, Boz?

Boz: 100%, I was just listening to you and thinking, yes, number one, internal knowledge management. You know, that’s the key. I kind of wrapped up the alliances part with it, but that’s the foundation for everything in the professional services, it’s not just professional service, but the process is a critical element. And so that’s the internal part. The external part is the signals, right? And the signals come from multiple sources that we go around and collect. Probably another external source could be just the geopolitical side of the house, understanding the macro trends as well. So, kind of including those into our perspectives and considering as we are thinking about, you know, what moves and what shakes the market, essentially, right? The skeptical view, I love it because you know me, I try to put my skeptical hat on as much as possible, as often as I can. You know, I may not be the most favorite opinion sometimes among some of the clients, but some do appreciate it. So just the way it goes. And that’s, I think, that’s what some clients do appreciate, coming that way. And it’s, because everyone can read the news these days. 

Patrick: Yeah.

Boz: And ChatGPT can read even faster than you can sometimes, and not sometimes, but all the time these days, right? It can kind of like scan it and give you the summary of what the news is. So, we really are trying to bring in- and really trying to elevate and fall back on our proprietary data models. I think that’s a key part that as we build the predictions, as we look into what we have in-house and thinking about all the qualitative, we want to make sure our quantitative database also supports those hypotheses. And kind of go back and forth, not just- you can start with a hypothesis and look at the data, or you can look at the data and then build an opinion on that. 

Patrick: Right.

Boz: So, you can go both ways, because you can- this is the beauty of the human brain, right? You can, you know, take multiple angles and interpretations versus to your point about the AI, I’m not sure- that may not do that, maybe a few years down the road, but that’s what you ask them to do, right? It’s a linear way of doing it versus the human brain can kind of react a little faster sometimes and take a different approach, a more creative- 

Patrick: Right.

Boz: Creativity is still a little bit stronger in my opinion.

Patrick: I think so too. And one thing I’ve done the last couple of years in preparing to do predictions and adding my two cents in is anytime I go to an event, and oftentimes when we get briefings, whether over the phone or live, I take notes by hand. And always at events, someone will say something and I’ll put a big star next to it, or they’ll say something that will make me think of a question, and I’ll mark that very clearly in my notebook. Honestly, 9 times out of 10, that doesn’t make it into print. It just, it doesn’t. 

Boz: Yeah.

Patrick: So, then I have to go back in the prediction time of the year and look, and it’s easy for me to flip through the notebook. And anytime I see that star, the big question, the big bold writing, that- all that stuff doesn’t exist anywhere else. There’s no way for it to be scraped. That’s where some of that creativity comes in.

Final thoughts

So, I want to wrap up with two predictions from each of you. I know this isn’t the predictions episode, but we’re going to do predictions anyway. The first one is easy and the second one is easy. The first one, and neither one of them do you need to give me a reason. Let me just say that. You need to give me one name for each one of them. And I don’t need a reason behind any of it. And I’m not going to give you a whole lot of time to answer. It’s got to be quick. So I’ll go, Angela, you’ll get the first one first, and then Boz, you’ll get it, and then Boz, and then Angela. So, in 2026, which company are you going to write the most special reports about? Angela.

Angela: Intel.

Patrick: Boz.

Boz: Palantir.

Patrick: Palantir. Wow, interesting choice. All right, in 2026, Boz, you go first, and then Angela. Who’s going to win the World Cup? Boz.

Boz: Spain.

Angela: My gosh, I have no idea what to say.

Patrick: Well throw a country out there. 

Angela: Ooh, Portugal?

Patrick: The US is hosting, and Mexico will be in it, Canada will be in it, Portugal will probably be in it.

Angela: Okay.

Patrick: You have colleagues in this building that love Greece, you know? Just saying.

Angela: All right. Seems like a great bet.

Patrick: So, who do you want to go with? Don’t say Greece, I don’t think they’re going to make it.

Angela: I’ll say US.

Patrick: All right, US, fantastic. Excellent. Thank you very much, both of you, for coming on. Really appreciate this, this is always a lot of fun. And we’ll do another one of these in a little while, we’ll talk probably early January, talk about your predictions for 2026. Thanks.

Angela: Thank you.

Boz: Thank you.

Patrick: Next week I’ll be speaking with Angela Lambert and Ben Carbonneau about Lenovo GIAC 2025. Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week. 

Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, principal analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.

T

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