2026 Predictions: Alliances & Partnerships

TBR’s ecosystem intelligence experts break down 2026 predictions for alliances and partnerships across cloud, software, infrastructure and the rapidly evolving edge ecosystem. The team dives into the resurgence of enterprise edge, why AI is accelerating demand for edge deployments, and how systems integrators and OEMs are redefining orchestration, commercial models, and partner engagement as infrastructure and platforms become tightly integrated.

Episode highlights:

• Edge and enterprise edge growth

• Sovereign AI expectations Which vendors will be best suited for multiparty alliances

• Which vendors will be best suited for multiparty alliances

“The prediction that we have focuses on sovereign AI, which is getting a lot of focus. We look a lot at the government sector. So, solutions that work within the constraints of the regulatory environment but still provide the AI benefits that the commercial markets are able to access is a hot topic and one that really requires the most partnership activity,” said TBR Principal Analyst Allan Krans.

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Edited by Haley Demers

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Art by Amanda Hamilton Sy

2026 Predictions: Alliances & Partnerships

TBR Talks Host Patrick Heffernan: Welcome to TBR Talks: Decoding Strategies and Ecosystems of the Globe’s Top Tech Firms. Where we talk business model disruption in the broad technology ecosystem, from management consultancies to systems integrators, hyperscalers to independent software vendors, telecom operators to network and infrastructure vendors, and chip manufacturers to value-added resellers. We’ll be answering some of the key intelligence questions we’ve heard from executives and business unit leaders among the leading professional IT services and telecom vendors. 

I’m Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst, and today we’ll be talking about our 2026 Alliances Predictions with Allan Kranz, Principal Analyst for TBR’s Cloud and Software Practice, and Angela Lambert, Principal Analyst for TBR’s IT Infrastructure and Devices Practice. 

Prediction: 2026 growth of edge and enterprise edge

Allan and Angela, welcome back to the podcast. We’re here today talking about our predictions for 2026, and because we each run a different practice at Technology Business Research, we’re looking at it from the ecosystem. So, what is happening among the different companies that we cover, and what are those things going to look like in 2026 with respect to investments, with respect to growth, and then of course, really importantly, with respect to partnerships, alliances? What are we going to see different in 2026? Angela, we’ll start with you. Throw out something there that we can bite into.

Angela Lambert, TBR Principal Analyst: All right. So, my prediction on partnership and ecosystem in 2026 is going to be specific to AI at the edge and enterprise edge. So TBR, we’re projecting about a 20% CAGR on enterprise edge growth. And that’s really predicated upon the idea that AI is bringing a faster innovation and proliferation of edge use cases. So, the edge use cases have obviously been something that’s been targeted for a long time, but we’re seeing more evolution there, and we think that changes in partnership activity are going to help drive that growth.

Patrick: And so, edge doesn’t get deployed by one partner within the ecosystem. Edge requires infrastructure, it requires devices, it requires connectivity, it requires I hope services and consulting in there as well. So, when you talk about that 20% CAGR, are you saying across edge as a whole or are you looking at just the infrastructure players and where they’re going to see some revenue growth?

Angela: Yeah, we’re looking at edge from a relatively holistic view. So, we take into account the infrastructure software as well as service providers as part of that.

Patrick: Okay. And are there certain companies you think, again, because we always look at things company by company first, are there certain companies you think are going to benefit more from, and I’ll call it a resurgence in edge, because I feel like we talked about edge 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 years ago. Now it’s coming back. We can probably dive into the why in another time, but which of the companies you think will benefit most from this resurgence?

Angela: I think, well, that’s probably a multipart answer, but starting out with services, I think that as much as ever, there’s the opportunity there to be an orchestrator between the technology. So, NVIDIA obviously is helping to renew activity within edge in areas like high-tech manufacturing, for example. And what we see there is that you have the NVIDIA platform, right? And as much as that is enabling and simplifying with blueprints and ways to deploy, probably still not as plug and play as it could be for enterprises who might not have the skill set. So, you need the systems integrator or services provider there to provide another layer of orchestration. Hopefully you agree with that as the services expert here.

Patrick: I do, but it leads to a question, but you can…

Angela: Okay, great. So, you have that layer. And then you’re going to see the infrastructure providers also providing a little bit of service. So, they’re helping in terms of the deployment, integration, and orchestration more closely tied to the box level or the infrastructure layer. But ultimately, I do think you’ll see a lot of opportunity for those groups to work together and also bring in a fourth group, which is the industry-specific ISVs who need to play a role as well.

Patrick: Right. So traditionally, and this is the question that comes to mind when you laid that out, traditionally, IT services companies and consultancies don’t want to sell boxes. And when you’re talking about edge, at the end of the day, you’re talking about a physical thing there. So, is there something about AI and something about where we’re going in 2026 that is going to change that calculation for the IT services companies and the consultancies? Is there something else that the infrastructure players and the device manufacturers are bringing to the table that makes it more appealing?

Angela: I would say perhaps the fact that NVIDIA and the OEMs are so well integrated at this point, because you don’t have one without the other in this case. The OEMs are using a lot of NVIDIA’s blueprints to create their own infrastructure that’s going to be more easy for enterprises to adopt. 

Patrick: Right.

Angela: But then it requires things like NVIDIA Omniverse, for example. And that’s where the platform piece comes in. And it’s so tightly coupled with the infrastructure that maybe the systems integrators in this case are more inherently interested in the infrastructure as well, because they’re so closely tied together.

Patrick: Right. So, it’s almost like as the ecosystems have evolved in the last 5, 6, 7, 8 years, and the IT services companies and the consultancies have partnered increasingly with these companies, edge is just an accelerant of that. It’s not something new. They know how to go through the motions, I don’t mean that in a bad way, but they know how to generate revenue with those partnerships. Now you add edge onto it because of a greater AI adoption, right? 

Angela: Right, absolutely.

Patrick: Good. I’m glad I’m right about that one. 

Prediction: Sovereign AI will need more resources and time to scale

So, Allan, now you’re going to tell me I’m wrong about something else, but let’s pivot to cloud and software and what is it that you’re seeing in the ecosystem you think is going to be most important in 2026?

Allan Krans, TBR Principal Analyst: Yeah, I think the prediction that we have focuses on sovereign AI, which is getting a lot of focus. We look a lot at the government sector. So, solutions that work within the constraints of the regulatory environment, but still provide the AI benefits that the commercial markets are able to access is a hot topic and one that really requires the most partnership activity. And that extends not only with the technology providers, the service providers, but obviously with the agencies and the governments themselves in terms of the guidance and guardrails for how these types of solutions can be compliant at all different levels. 

And with sovereign AI, it starts with the physical data centers, goes into data security, all the regulation there. You add on model training development, another area of complexity and one that there’s a whole new host of providers that need to come in to ensure the security and compliance at that level. And even on top of that, Agentic, so having something that not only provides intelligence but takes action on it, obviously introduces a whole new area of risk and it’s just so uncertain in terms of how that’s going to work and what the best practices are that going into 2026, I think there’s still a lot of training, development, waiting for regulation to become clearer and get some things in practice before we’ll really see the sovereign AI adoption at scale really kind of pick up and be something that moves the needle for the larger providers.

Patrick: And we saw- this is very- so there’s lots of echoes of sovereign cloud. So how many of those echoes are loud and how many of them are, it’s a completely different world when we move from sovereign cloud to sovereign AI.

Allan: Well, it’s a prerequisite. So, you need to have the sovereign cloud, and that’s a country by country endeavor for a lot of areas of the globe. So that in and of itself is still developing and maturing. But we’ve seen, there’s new opportunity for new providers there as well. We’ve seen, obviously, AWS was early in terms of the physical infrastructure, but Microsoft, even Google getting back in. And we expect more from Oracle as well as they have a big focus on government and AI. And when you combine those two things, we’re seeing them take advantage of an opportunity in the market where they can gain some ground. Obviously, with the broader commercial workloads and the market in general, they’re a distant 4th in terms of the size, but in terms of their booked backlog, a lot of which is AI-driven, they have an opportunity to really close some of that gap and be on par with some of the larger providers. At least in terms of AI and, you know, the government focus for them has always been strong. So again, 2026 may be a little bit early in terms of really seeing them take advantage, but over the next three to four years, there’s a big possibility for them to grow and at least close some of the market share gaps that already exist.

Patrick: Right. And Oracle may be small when you talk about the cloud practice and sovereign cloud specific to AWS and Google Cloud Platform and Azure, but they’re huge. Are there other players that are smaller that you think are going to be either disruptive or just have a really good year in 2026 or 2027 because of what’s happening with sovereign AI?

Allan: Yeah, I mean, I think Google’s the other provider that has a big opportunity. They’ve always had a focus and a concentration in capabilities around analytics. And so that plays very nicely into AI, GenAI, eventually the sovereign AI, as they start to rebuild some of their government presence, which is something that they’ve been doing over the last couple of years to really kind of get back into that market in a way that’s significant. And some of the big US deals that include Google provide some of that opening. But I think the focus on analytics and sovereign AI, again, is a big opportunity for them.

Patrick: And you mentioned earlier, when we’re talking about sovereign AI, we’re talking about country by country, maybe region, maybe EU as a region making- passing regulations. That’s an opening for the consultancies in particular, to be able to say, this is what’s changing in the regulation, this is how it’s going to affect the enterprise and their business, but also consulting to the Azures and the Oracles and all that. Do you anticipate that an Oracle or a Microsoft Azure or AWS will be going to market with a consultancy to say, these are the folks that know best about what’s happening with this regulation, where it’s going, how you can, as an enterprise, best set yourself up to be respectful or in compliance with sovereign AI rules.

Allan: Absolutely. I think they’re the key kind of translation point between the technology vendors and the end customers, and they’re tightly partnered on both sides of that relationship. So, the actors kind of change based on the region and the government. The US, we have a very clear view of the leaders there, and all of them are focused on AI, whether that’s just a marketing pitch, a glossy layer on top of existing solutions, that’s all being ferreted out. And then when you go overseas, same type of market, different actors, but those specialists that focus on working with government agencies as their main business will be at the forefront of mapping the technology within the confines of the regulatory environment and the mission of whatever government organization that they’re working with. So, all that complexity definitely means opportunity for the SIs because the government agencies are not going to be able to do it themselves in terms of these initiatives.

Patrick: Right, and that’s where when we look at the individual SIs and the consultancies, one thing that we’re looking at is what kinds of qualifications do they have in the different government agencies? What have they done in the federal sector or the state and local, and what have they done in the EU that would position them to benefit from this surge, an expected surge around sovereign AI, and maybe a continuation of sovereign cloud as well, because like you said, it’s a prerequisite getting that done. 

We have seen, in looking at the IT services companies and the consultancies, a new preference for a leaning towards a multiparty engagement, where they’re not just going to market with an Azure, but they’re going to market with Azure and SAP, or put together any string of companies you want to. The challenge is always the commercial models, the sales models, the compensation, who’s actually getting which piece of the pie. But increasingly, what we’re hearing and seeing from IT services companies and consultancies is their message to the enterprise clients is, we’re bringing you the best commercial terms with these three companies that we’re partnering with, and we’re orchestrating that. And so, we want to go to market, we want to bring this to you. And it’s a way of no longer being agnostic, no longer saying, we’ll partner with everybody, but instead being very specific and saying, these are the companies that we’re partnering with. We have a special relationship. And that special relationship allows us to bring better commercial terms, better innovation, faster, better service, global service, and all that. 

Who is best suited for multiparty alliances

So, if you think about it in that context, are there certain companies that you cover that are more both organizationally, culturally, in terms of their leadership, maybe in terms of the portfolio, better suited to a multiparty kind of environment? Or there’s some companies that are, and I’ll throw one name out there, and I’m not entirely sure this is true, but I’ll throw it out there anyway. We think about Workday as having a very specific set of parameters for how they like to partner, which has worked for them really well, but they don’t partner with everybody. They’re very selective about who they partner with and what they do with them. That’s great. It’s worked. It’s been tremendous for them. We think going forward, it’s going to be a lot harder to do that because the IT services companies and the consultancies are going to say, yes, but. Yes, but we want to be very specific with you, and we want to bring in this other partner into it as well. And so, when you think about the companies you cover, are there some that are really well positioned, again, culturally, organizationally, leadership, portfolio, to expand and be part of a super group within the ecosystem? Allan, you want to go first on that.

Allan: Sure. Yeah, I mean, I think Microsoft is best positioned to really play in a number of different ways with different partners. Even though they were early with OpenAI, you’ve seen them broaden and not only really some of the constraints around OpenAI, but bring in other models and have a diverse set of capabilities that they can offer to customers. A lot of different reasons for that, but I think they’re very good at that type of partnership, working with Oracle, around some of the opportunity around Oracle Database within Azure environments. So, I think they’re the most motivated to continue the AI-led growth and trade-off in terms of some of the financial aspects and the way that they monetize it. So, I think that’s something that they definitely stand out as being more partner forward in the AI sector than others.

Patrick: Right. Angela, how about you, the companies you cover?

Angela: Of the infrastructure OEMs, I think they still try to be a little more broad and have not mastered some of the tenants you’re describing on establishing partnerships that give you some of those benefits. I will say you see pockets of it, for example. I think Dell Technologies is a great example where they’ve invested heavily in certain companies like Red Hat or even Microsoft Azure, and they’ve developed together integrations that really speed up deployment and the ongoing management updating of infrastructure, so they’ve intertwined their management capabilities on a very deep level. So, we do see, we see some of that, but at the same time, they’re still trying to appeal very broadly to a lot of different companies.

Patrick: Right, and a lot of that is because that’s how they have operated in the past. And that’s- it’s really hard to tell somebody within the organization, hey, we’re no longer focused on that partner you’ve been working with for so long. We’re instead focused on this particular set of partners. And that kind of change is really hard to do. We have seen in the, again, in the IT services companies and the consultancies. There’s EY, which is all in on only Microsoft out of the cloud vendors, and also all in with Dell. And so that three-way, I think we will see in my- I guess my prediction in 2026 is we’re going to see a lot more of that, where it’s a three or four-way partnership led by one of the Big Four, led by one of the consultancies that is able to orchestrate that by saying, we’re all in with you and we’re only working with you. And of course, only doesn’t mean never working with everybody else. It means that’s where the strategic investments are made. That’s where the leadership is focused. That’s where the company is culturally aligned to. 

Bets for the technology to be talked about the most in 2026

So, last question as we wrap this up, we have- a couple of years ago, nobody said GenAI, and then that’s all we talked about. In 2025, all we talked about was agentic AI. I can remember when the Metaverse was a thing. I can remember when blockchain was a thing. So, what is the- by the end of 2026, what’s the technology that we’re going to be surprised that we’ve been talking about all year long?

Angela: Well, for me, given that I picked an edge-related prediction, I think I am obligated to say physical AI is for my term right there. I have to. That’s going to be the one we start writing about and talking about a lot more.

Patrick: Right. And I fully appreciate that physical AI is bigger than robots, but having spent time at the NVIDIA event, all I can say is that’s what everybody uses instead of just saying robots. Just say robots, that’s what it is. But yeah, I understand it’s more than that. Physical AI. All right, Allan, you got something to beat that?

Allan: Maybe just the augmented general AI intelligence. I think it’s come up as a concern, a threat that there’s a tipping point once we get to certain levels of AI being embedded in most things that are being done in organizations, that there’s a whole host of risk factors that are introduced. And so, I think that- we’re still always off, but we’ll definitely come back on the radar screen later in the year.

Patrick: I think we’re going to see, this might be surprising, I think we’re going to see blockchain make a comeback by the end of 2026. And the reason is because we’re starting to see it creep into a lot of offerings, not as a headline technology, but as an underpinning to whatever the offering of the service is. It’s a layer that is increasingly becoming necessary. And that’s great right now, but eventually it’s going to be the realization that, oh, right, AI is all about data, and data at the end of the day is actually best done on blockchain. And so, I think we’re going to see an uptick, a significant uptick in blockchain as something that we hear about, talk about, realize is an important piece of the broader technology puzzle and the broader ecosystem. Any other last thoughts before we wrap up? 

Angela: Wow. *laughs*

Allan: I mean, the other thing we may be talking about is small nuclear power, right?

Patrick: I hope so. I’d say knock on wood for that one. Yeah, I think that’ll be a huge benefit to solving what is a looming challenge around energy and water with respect to powering AI. And that’s going to be, that’s the 2026/2027 super challenge for these companies.

Angela: Absolutely. And that’s the reason I even, I picked edge as a prediction in growth areas because we see the roadblocks and barriers coming, right? There’s only so much energy, so much real estate, so much capacity for production. So, where’s AI going to take that turn and be smaller, more accessible? And I think that’s why we’re going to see vendors focus more on edge this year too, because it’s attainable.

Patrick: Yeah, that’s fact. That’s fantastic. It’s smaller, more accessible, well smaller, more accessible AI as opposed to this, you know, AI is everywhere and everything to everybody. So excellent. 

Final thoughts 

Allan, thank you. Angela, thank you. And we’ll do this again very soon.

Angela: Thanks, Patrick.

Allan: Thank you.

Patrick: Next week, I’ll be speaking with Boz Hristov about our 2026 managed services predictions. 

Don’t forget to send us your key intelligence questions on business strategy, ecosystems, and management consulting through the form in the show notes below. Visit tbri.com to learn how we help tech companies, large and small, answer these questions with the research, data, and analysis that my guests bring to this conversation every week. 

Once again, I’m your host, Patrick Heffernan, Principal Analyst at TBR. Thanks for joining us and see you next week.

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