TBR’s Business Insights

TBR anticipates that Peraton will continue to more efficiently convert its backlog (last reported at $24.4 billion in the middle of 2022) into revenue while the company also keeps capitalizing on federal budget priorities favoring civilian, defense and healthcare agencies. A government shutdown in 4Q24 could still disrupt Peraton’s expansion, but TBR believes Peraton will still reach between $8.0 billion and $8.1 billion in annual revenue during 2024, representing growth of between 2.6% to 5.2% over 2023.

As the efficiencies of automation, analytics and AI begin benefiting technology companies themselves, not just their enterprise clients, TBR sees the latter half of 2024 as fundamentally business model disruptive for pretty much every technology company we cover, from McKinsey & Co. to Infosys to Dell Technologies to Amazon Web Services to IBM to Ericsson to NVIDIA.

TBR’s latest telecom research indicates customer care, which includes contact centers, will be profoundly transformed by AI. Though traditional AI has been utilized in customer care for many years (e.g., chatbots and interactive voice response), GenAI will take customer care to an advanced state. TBR estimates that GenAI could reduce the costs of running contact centers by up to 80%, and this is an area telecom operators are keenly interested in as they remain focused on cutting expenses across their businesses.

TBR looks at the question: If India is on track to become the third largest economy, will it also be the third largest revenue source for the Big Four, Accenture, IBM and Capgemini, or only for the firms that act first and implement the optimal strategies?

TBR estimates public sector revenue from U.S.-based service providers grew 6.1% year-to-year in 4Q23 to $5.4 billion. Total public sector revenue growth was driven by wireless revenue, which increased 9% year-to-year to an estimated $2.8 billion. First responder initiatives such as AT&T FirstNet and Verizon Frontline are the main drivers of public sector wireless revenue growth as these units are attracting public safety agencies seeking enhanced reliability to support mission-critical workloads and use cases.