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Allan Krans, Practice Manager and Principal Analyst
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Allan Krans, Practice Manager and Principal Analyst2026-02-20 11:00:092026-01-29 11:18:46Skills Shortage Will Challenge the Scaling of Sovereign AI in 2026You are here: Home1 / Competitive Insights – Analyst Perspectives – TBR2 / Competitive Insights and Analyses Blog
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Allan Krans, Practice Manager and Principal Analyst
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Allan Krans, Practice Manager and Principal Analyst2026-02-20 11:00:092026-01-29 11:18:46Skills Shortage Will Challenge the Scaling of Sovereign AI in 2026
PaaS Revenue Will Outpace SaaS Revenue for Cloud Software Vendors
Enterprise customers are prioritizing the modernization of their existing SaaS estates rather than adding new applications, driven by market saturation, accumulated technical debt, and a growing imperative to become AI-ready. As IT buyers shift their focus toward modern platforms, traditional SaaS leaders should expect their PaaS segments to continue significantly outperforming their core SaaS businesses in revenue growth.
Dee Angela, Canva ProAlliances Will Extend Beyond Core Offerings as AI-driven Sales and Marketing Reshape Ecosystems
IT services companies have their limits, and clients have preferred technology vendors, leading IT services companies to look to alliances to drive new growth. We have seen this pattern before, but in 2026 we will see IT services companies extend those alliances into devices, connectivity and even silicon, requiring a multiparty alliance approach that will strain commercial models, sales strategies and alliance leaders across the ecosystem.

Consulting Will Rebound in 2026
After a period of relative softness, consulting revenues are expected to rebound to high-single- or low-double-digit growth as pervasive uncertainty pushes enterprises to seek external guidance. Demand will be particularly strong around risk mitigation, strategic planning and AI adoption, positioning forward-deployed engineers, supply chain management and people advisory services as leading revenue drivers in 2026.

Bad Debt Expenses Will Rise for CSPs in 2026
In a K-shaped economy that increasingly separates financial winners from losers, the majority of households and businesses on the lower arm of the “K” are under mounting financial strain and are finding it more difficult to pay their bills. As these economic pressures persist, communications service providers (CSPs) should expect bad debt expenses to continue rising, with the potential to meet, or even exceed, levels experienced during the Great Recession.

How Will Advanced AI Impact Pricing, Labor Practices and Client Expectations?
Advanced AI may be front and center in IT services strategy, but execution challenges remain a familiar story. Despite ongoing hype around unlocking new efficiencies and nonlinear growth, IT services firms continue to grapple with the reality of needing labor arbitrage in the short term and meeting client expectations.
Gustavo Quiroga Gaitan, Canva ProAI Alliances Will Increasingly Target OT
New and expanding partnerships are increasingly targeting the convergence of IT and OT, as system integrators (SIs) align with OEMs, manufacturing ISVs and silicon providers. This momentum is driven by the strong growth potential in high-tech manufacturing, where solutions that improve accuracy, efficiency and safety can be deployed on-site without reliance on rack-scale compute systems in neoclouds or Tier 1 clouds. As a result, while AI has long operated at the edge, these partnerships will accelerate both the sophistication of AI-driven use cases and the pace of solution framework development.

Agentic AI Adoption Is Pressuring Security Architectures to Converge
The emerging pattern of multicloud security consolidation has direct implications for both Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft, as enterprises reassess detection pipelines, governance models and operating frameworks heading into 2026. Although AWS remains well positioned in analytics-heavy workloads, the company needs to reevaluate its long-established “building block” approach, especially as peers deliver more integrated platforms. For Microsoft, its strengths will continue to be with organizations where Microsoft 365 already anchors their identity and collaboration strategies.
Saitharn, Getty Images via Canva ProThe U.S. doesn’t have a Spectrum Shortage — It has a Utilization Problem
The mobile industry continues to beat the drum for more spectrum, but it should instead focus on fully utilizing the spectrum already allocated. TBR notes there are vast tranches of spectrum in the U.S. market that are broadly underutilized, either for technical or economic reasons. And challenges will only worsen as the industry aims to bring upper midband frequencies into the fray, which have greater propagation challenges and are less suited for macro coverage.
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DOGE Federal IT Vendor Impact Series: Maximus
/by John Caucis, Senior AnalystPartnerships will be integral as vendors across the federal IT market look to quickly demonstrate their value to the new administration. While Maximus has historically been quiet regarding its alliance activity, this could change as the vendor aims to avoid falling behind. For example, Maximus recently announced a partnership with Salesforce to augment its CX as a Service efforts. The Maximus Total Experience Management solution is being augmented with the Agentforce platform to provide clients with AI agents tailored to their needs that use data to adapt to citizens’ needs and simplify interactions.
DOGE Federal IT Vendor Impact Series: ICF International
/by John Caucis, Senior AnalystTBR anticipates ICF will also explore ways to make its IT modernization and digital transformation work more agile while increasingly booking these types of engagements as fixed-price, outcome-based contracts, given the Trump administration’s preference for this contracting method. At least 50% of ICF’s IT modernization and digital transformation engagements are already fixed-price, outcome-based contracts.
Atos Is Starting to Regain Client Trust and Develop Commercial Opportunities That Will Generate Revenue in 2025
/by Elitsa Bakalova, Senior AnalystAfter years of instability and declining performance, Atos enters 2025 with new leadership, improved liquidity and early signs of commercial momentum, positioning the company for gradual recovery and long-term stabilization.
Oracle Strategy: Large Backlog and New Government Contracts Boost Vendor’s Long-term Outlook
/by Catie Merrill, Senior AnalystOracle’s current business strategy centers on streamlining customer success efforts, enhancing partner collaboration, and expanding multicloud infrastructure. By consolidating its services under the Oracle Customer Success Services (CSS) umbrella, the company has improved life cycle support for clients, reduced overlap with systems integrators, and equipped partners with tools like the Cloud Success Navigator to enhance implementation and renewal outcomes.
DOGE Federal IT Vendor Impact Series: Booz Allen Hamilton
/by John Caucis, Senior AnalystThe disruption that has very suddenly overtaken BAH’s civil business has prompted the firm to craft what Rozanski called a “one-time reset” of its civilian operations, including a 7% reduction in global headcount (about 2,500 employees) in 2Q25 that will disproportionately impact BAH’s civilian operations. The decline in civilian award activity has been so abrupt that BAH has not been able to sufficiently redeploy civilian project staff to DOD, IC or commercial sector programs, despite the firm’s expectations that growth will continue in its DOD and IC units in FY26.
GenAI Reshapes IT Services Talent Strategy as Vendors Balance Innovation, Ecosystem Alignment and Economic Headwinds
/by Bozhidar Hristov, Principal AnalystIn the short-to-mid-term, TBR expects generative AI (GenAI)-specific training to become a standard part of an IT services or consulting professional’s basic tool kit, with specialized training around technology partners’ solutions or a company’s own IP and platforms reserved for those professionals dedicated to AI roles. While some may argue every role is an AI role, the near-term reality is that only a select few among the broader professional services talent base will need specialized training, and the associated budgets will decrease in the coming years.
DOGE Federal IT Vendor Impact Series: Leidos
/by John Caucis, Senior AnalystIn FY25 Leidos will tout its mission-critical solutions to enhance outcomes quickly, cost-effectively and at scale for federal agencies. Leidos will accelerate efforts to draw closer to its federal clients, emphasizing how they can more effectively utilize the company’s delivery scale and depth of mission expertise to comply with DOGE’s mandates, the overarching IT objectives of the Trump administration and the enduring need to modernize federal technology infrastructures.
DOGE Federal IT Vendor Impact Series: CGI Federal
/by John Caucis, Senior AnalystCGI Federal is confident it can adapt to outcome-focused contracting in federal IT but is uncertain how quickly the transition can be completed. CGI Federal has been a perennial margin leader in TBR’s Federal IT Services Benchmark due to its traction with its ever-expanding suite of homespun intellectual property (IP)-based offerings like Sunflower and Momentum, and demand for these offerings will at least endure, but likely increase, under DOGE.
DOGE Federal IT Vendor Impact Series: General Dynamics Technologies
/by John Caucis, Senior AnalystGDT is not going to give up on the federal health market or on consulting, but TBR anticipates the vendor will increasingly prioritize defense opportunities in the interim, such as a recently awarded contract worth up to $5.6 billion to manage the DOD’s Mission Partner Environment. The DOD has historically been GDT’s largest client and was responsible for more than 58% of its revenue in 1Q25. While the Trump administration is asking for a 23% reduction in nondefense discretionary funding in its FFY26 budget proposal, it wants to keep the DOD’s discretionary spending roughly on par with the $892.5 billion stopgap for FFY25. GDIT is well positioned to capitalize on the DOD becoming increasingly interested in emerging technologies, given its experience with fixed-price and outcome-based contracting.
DOGE Federal IT Vendor Impact Series: IBM Federal
/by John Caucis, Senior AnalystCACI believes demand will remain strong through the remainder of its FY25 and into its FY26 for technologies and capabilities at the core of the company’s portfolio. Uninterrupted sales growth and consistent margin performance indicate CACI’s offerings remain well aligned to the Trump administration’s IT investment priorities, particularly as the new administration prepares to expand investment in cybersecurity, national security and national defense, and advanced space-based communications systems for defense, intelligence and civil applications. CACI executives also noted that the federal budget environment is slowly becoming more constructive and more transparent, a positive harbinger for CACI and its fellow federal IT contractors.