The Middle East’s Economic Transformation: A Real Decoupling or Persistent Uncertainty?
The long-sought-after growth of strong non-oil economies, the eventual weaning of these pivotal Middle East countries from subservience to the price of oil is happening now and happening quickly. And should a trade war break out between the U.S. and the European Union (EU) or the U.S. and China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — and the rest of the Middle East economies — will suffer. A production surge by the world’s largest oil producer — the U.S. — would further dampen oil prices, constraining Middle East governments’ budgets. Not everything is perfect, but certainly the big picture looks promising: Non-oil economies in oil-led countries have shown persistent, seemingly lasting growth.