TBR’s Business Insights

DOGE drives civil sector slowdown; defense contractors gear up as Trump’s budget shifts billions to military priorities

08.04.25

The Trump administration’s recent “skinny” budget proposal for FFY26 suggests that nondefense spending will fall from around $720 billion in FFY25 to approximately $557 billion in FFY26, representing a 23% decline. Contractors with any level of exposure to the civilian sector can expect agency reorganizations, layoffs, budget reductions and in-depth contract reviews within civil agencies for the remainder of FFY25 and likely into at least the first half of FFY26. The pace of new awards has already slowed significantly at some civilian agencies, as has the rate of new bookings on existing civilian engagements.

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Geopolitics with Purpose: EY-Parthenon Drives Strategy, Not Just Awareness

07.17.25

TBR has long maintained that the Big Four firms have an inherent advantage against all competitors when it comes to understanding and advising on geopolitical risk. Perhaps only the U.S. government has the same global spread of talent, with professionals in nearly every country, most intimately aware of local business, economic and even political trends. When EY-Parthenon showed off its Geopolitical Advisory team recently, TBR wanted to know: Is this something special?

Manufacturing Growth Slows, But EMEA IT Services Vendors Find Lifeline in Public Sector Wins

07.16.25

This quarter, we look at Accenture, Atos, Capgemini and IBM Consulting in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) market, and compare how their industry diversification, portfolios and localization strategies position them for revenue growth. Atos and Capgemini, the two IT services companies whose EMEA revenue makes up over half of total revenue, experienced a steady decline in trailing 12-month (TTM) year-to-year revenue growth in recent quarters. Yet, Accenture and IBM were better able to maintain growth as macroeconomic conditions deteriorated in recent quarters.

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Capgemini to Acquire WNS for $3.3B, Tripling BPO Revenue and Accelerating AI Ambitions

07.15.25

The acquisition undoubtedly serves as an important stepping stone to transform Capgemini’s BPO offerings, which are housed in its Operations & Engineering segment, yet Capgemini must be strategic with its approach, balancing new clients’ expectations with the introduction of incremental GenAI and agentic AI capabilities. Capgemini’s recent investments in partner-enabled portfolio offerings position the company well for a large change in the segment, such as its new agentic AI offerings announced with Google Cloud in April and its NVIDIA NIM-powered industry-specific agentic AI solutions and agentic gallery.

Technology Business Research, Inc.

DOGE Federal IT Vendor Impact Series: Maximus

06.11.25

Partnerships will be integral as vendors across the federal IT market look to quickly demonstrate their value to the new administration. While Maximus has historically been quiet regarding its alliance activity, this could change as the vendor aims to avoid falling behind. For example, Maximus recently announced a partnership with Salesforce to augment its CX as a Service efforts. The Maximus Total Experience Management solution is being augmented with the Agentforce platform to provide clients with AI agents tailored to their needs that use data to adapt to citizens’ needs and simplify interactions.

Technology Business Research, Inc.

DOGE Federal IT Vendor Impact Series: ICF International

06.11.25

TBR anticipates ICF will also explore ways to make its IT modernization and digital transformation work more agile while increasingly booking these types of engagements as fixed-price, outcome-based contracts, given the Trump administration’s preference for this contracting method. At least 50% of ICF’s IT modernization and digital transformation engagements are already fixed-price, outcome-based contracts.

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Atos Is Starting to Regain Client Trust and Develop Commercial Opportunities That Will Generate Revenue in 2025

06.06.25

After years of instability and declining performance, Atos enters 2025 with new leadership, improved liquidity and early signs of commercial momentum, positioning the company for gradual recovery and long-term stabilization.

Aera Bella

Oracle Strategy: Large Backlog and New Government Contracts Boost Vendor’s Long-term Outlook

06.05.25

Oracle’s current business strategy centers on streamlining customer success efforts, enhancing partner collaboration, and expanding multicloud infrastructure. By consolidating its services under the Oracle Customer Success Services (CSS) umbrella, the company has improved life cycle support for clients, reduced overlap with systems integrators, and equipped partners with tools like the Cloud Success Navigator to enhance implementation and renewal outcomes.

Technology Business Research, Inc.

DOGE Federal IT Vendor Impact Series: Booz Allen Hamilton

05.30.25

The disruption that has very suddenly overtaken BAH’s civil business has prompted the firm to craft what Rozanski called a “one-time reset” of its civilian operations, including a 7% reduction in global headcount (about 2,500 employees) in 2Q25 that will disproportionately impact BAH’s civilian operations. The decline in civilian award activity has been so abrupt that BAH has not been able to sufficiently redeploy civilian project staff to DOD, IC or commercial sector programs, despite the firm’s expectations that growth will continue in its DOD and IC units in FY26.

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Blog series: Gimme 3 Insight Interviews with TBR's Subject-matter Experts

Technology Business Research, Inc.

How to illuminate operational insights and increase value from your business model and estimates

11.07.22/by Patrick Heffernan, Practice Manager and Principal Analyst

Learn about TBR’s approach to modeling financial performance and other business metrics, including what value comes from modeling and advice on doing modeling correctly

Digital transformation cannot escape tech despite vendors’ evolving value propositions

10.21.22/by TBR

Complexities in developing and managing digital transformation (DT) have fueled tremendous opportunity for vendors across IT and services over the past five to seven years.

Technology Business Research, Inc.

Changing the norm: Consultancies reimagine portfolios and talent composition

10.20.22/by TBR

Consultancies must balance talent composition around technology and consulting to support the shift in business models to better retain clients and deliver on emerging needs brought out from digital adoption

Technology Business Research, Inc.

IT infrastructure vendors balance demand hurdles and portfolio strategy in 2022

10.19.22/by TBR

Despite demand hurdles, IT infrastructure vendors continue to invest in expanding their portfolios to capture greater wallet share from customers and create more diversified revenue streams

Technology Business Research, Inc.

How has economic uncertainty impacted the cloud applications market in 2022?

10.18.22/by TBR

Cloud applications vendors are pursing growth amid mounting economic uncertainty ranging from inflation challenges to geopolitical concerns — headwinds that are set to linger well into 2023

SAP and SoftwareONE: Persistent value through pragmatic transformation

10.17.22/by Patrick Heffernan, Practice Manager and Principal Analyst

Emphasizing pragmatic, incremental transformation over broad digital transformations helps SoftwareONE more easily define its value to clients

Technology Business Research, Inc.

Cloud partnerships prove even more important than expected in 2022

10.17.22/by TBR

The current macroeconomic uncertainty makes cloud partnerships an even more important factor in cloud growth heading into 2023

Technology Business Research, Inc.

Native PaaS services delivered via hybrid architectures shape the cloud market in 2022

10.14.22/by TBR

Throughout 2022 cloud service providers continue to recognize that PaaS services are only as effective as the architecture they run on

Technology Business Research, Inc.

Automation enables business continuity and offsets macroeconomic-pressured human-centered implications

10.13.22/by TBR

Macroeconomic pressures have compelled vendors to reconsider the true opportunity to scale the integration of automation in service delivery.

Technology Business Research, Inc.

5G and edge computing remain top focus areas for telecom industry in 2022

10.12.22/by TBR

Revenue growth from 5G and edge computing remains tepid thus far in 2022, but new use cases for these technologies are likely to emerge and scale as the digital ecosystem evolves

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