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BearingPoint’s bold triple bet on cars

Can the Europe-centric consultancy lead the race to remake the automotive industry?

In recent years, as nearly every IT services vendor and consultancy has attached itself to an automotive sector client and touted their industry expertise, TBR has followed the routes those vendors have taken and which aspects of the car industry they have focused on. In broad strokes, consultancies and IT services vendors help their automotive clients in one or more of three areas: 1) AI and autonomous vehicles; 2) customization, customer mobility and brand; and/or 3) Manufacturing 4.0. For example, last fall, TBR spoke at length with Accenture about the company’s new efforts in Stuttgart, Germany, which mostly fell into the second category. Cutting across all three areas, trends in car ownership, transportation, ride sharing, car sharing, and privacy and data sharing have sustained opportunities for consulting, with anticipated large-scale implementations and managed services to follow.

In a recent discussion with BearingPoint, TBR learned the automotive sector would be a priority over the next few years, as the firm has recognized changes that affect the industry, such as climate change, air pollution, buyer needs and behaviors, mobility services, parking “as a Service,” and car rental “as a Service,” to name a few, were forcing changes in the business models for every supplier, maker, advertiser and buyer involved. With established relationships with all the major car manufacturers in Europe, as well as a legacy working with manufacturers across the continent, BearingPoint will do what almost no other consultancy or IT services vendor has done: organically build an automotive practice that tackles all three areas — AI and autonomous vehicles, customer experience and brand, and Manufacturing 4.0 — and place that business group among the firm’s highest priorities.

TBR will watch BearingPoint’s progress closely, in part as a component of our ongoing management consulting research, which includes a detailed profile on BearingPoint. Secondly, we want to see if a consultancy or IT services firm can balance serving the three elements of the automotive sector we have outlined. Many vendors have developed strengths in one or two areas, but no one vendor has applied consistent, sustained and leadership-supported investments in all three. It is a tough road. Let’s see if BearingPoint can navigate it.  

Revving the engine in Stuttgart: Accenture in the heart of the German auto zone

In July, Accenture announced a new Customer Experience Center in Stuttgart, Germany, focused on working with automobile manufacturers and their partners to accelerate the future of connected cars. With seemingly every IT services vendor and consultancy rolling out initiatives around automobiles, TBR spoke last week with Accenture’s Axel Schmidt, senior managing director and industry managing director, Mobility, about the new center to better understand why Accenture chose Stuttgart, how this center will differ from others, and what will be the core competencies and additional value the company brings to clients by having this new space.

According to Schmidt, customer behavior trends across the automotive industry, including increased specialization, expectations around connectivity, and even the number of times a buyer visits a dealership, have further emphasized the need for automakers to enhance their marketing and sales capabilities, a core consulting strength for Accenture. In combination with its manufacturing and supply chain expertise, the company can help carmakers understand what is possible with emerging technologies and what clients are increasingly demanding. In answer to the question, “Why Stuttgart?” Schmidt explained that an Accenture acquisition, Mackevision, was founded in the city and had strong ties to the automotive sector there. Schmidt anticipates Accenture will expand the center concept to other car hubs, and possibly other related industries such as travel and transportation, based on the company’s engagements with other manufacturers.

When pressed on how Accenture and its automotive clients have responded to the changing market for cars, including an increase in car sharing and the (hoped-for) emergence of self-driving cars, Schmidt noted that Accenture recognizes that “brand strength alone will not ensure future success in mobility.”  As Accenture has advised, clients that “want to gain relevant market shares in the market of mobility services need to act now and reposition their brand by using their sales reach.” In even broader terms, traditional manufacturers, according to Schmidt, “need to embrace new platform- and customer-centric technologies in order to remain successful. Furthermore, car manufacturers need to pivot their business model wisely from building and selling cars to offering mobility.” For some time now, Accenture has advanced the idea of “the new,” to include promising “the customer a seamless mobility experience by offering him in a comfy and affordable manner that kind of mobility he needs.”

Our discussion with Schmidt ended with a look to the future, when automobiles are essentially “software with hardware wrapped around it” and they become the “ultimate mobile device.” (TBR wonders if BMW will update its slogan.) Schmidt said the current 150 million lines of code per advanced automobile will be closer to 1 billion lines of code in an autonomous vehicle. Given everyday experiences with software in other elements of life — and the trend toward “low code” in some IT environments — I think a niche market will grow for no-code, unconnected, software-free cars. Keep that red Barchetta’s motor in working condition.    

Competition from MVNOs and smaller rivals limits subscriber growth for Tier 1 U.S. and Canadian operators

Wireless revenue rose 2.2% year-to-year to $64 billion among U.S. operators covered in Technology Business Research Inc.’s (TBR) 4Q18 U.S. & Canada Mobile Operator Benchmark, driven by continued subscriber growth and adoption of premium smartphones. All benchmarked U.S. operators except Sprint were able to gain postpaid phone net additions in 4Q18 as opportunity remains to target first-time wireless customers in the country. Postpaid subscriber growth is also fueled by prepaid migrations as many subscribers are moving to postpaid plans for benefits such as bundled streaming services and increased LTE data limits for mobile hot spots.

4Q18 Wireless Revenue, OIBDA Margin & Year-to-year Revenue Growth

Subscriber growth for U.S. Tier 1 operators is, however, threatened by the growing momentum of new mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) entering the market. Comcast’s Xfinity Mobile and Charter’s Spectrum Mobile are attracting wireless customers via low price points and the convenience of being able to enroll in multiple services through a single provider. Altice also plans on providing wireless services in 1H19, giving the company the opportunity to cross-sell mobility services to its current residential base of over 4.5 million customers. TBR also anticipates Google Fi, which was rebranded from Project Fi in November, will gain further traction in 2019 as the brand is launching new incentives to attract customers including bring-your-own-device options for most Android and iPhone smartphone models.

Combined wireless revenue among Tier 1 Canadian operators rose 6% year-to-year to $6.9 billion due to continued subscriber growth spurred by shared data programs and expanding LTE-Advanced coverage. However, subscriber growth for Tier 1 Canadian operators is limited by mounting competition from smaller competitors. Tier 2 Canadian operators, most notably Shaw Communications’ Freedom Mobile and Quebecor’s Videotron, which now have a total of about 1.5 million and 1.1 million customers, respectively, are accelerating subscriber growth via their pricing promotions and network investments. TBR anticipates Freedom Mobile will further disrupt the Canadian wireless market in 2019 as the company will expand LTE coverage to an additional 1.3 million Canadians throughout the year in markets in British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario.

For additional information about this research or to arrange a one-on-one analyst briefing, please contact Dan Demers at +1 603.929.1166 or [email protected].

Deeper convergence of mobility, broadband and video services creates revenue opportunities and disruption for CSPs

The digital era is bringing fundamental, disruptive changes to traditional business models for communication service providers (CSPs), including telecom operators and cable providers, as the mobility, broadband and video industries converge more deeply. These shifts are driven by the following trends, which will gain further traction over the next several years:

  • The rise of cable mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) — New entrants including Xfinity Mobile and Spectrum Mobile are attracting wireless customers via low price points and the convenience of being able to enroll in multiple services through a single provider.
  • Preference for over-the-top (OTT) video — The popularity of OTT services including Netflix, Hulu and HBO Now are contributing to video subscriber losses for cable providers and bundling opportunities for wireless operators.    
  • Wireless as a broadband replacement — Over the next several years, customers will gradually substitute traditional fixed broadband connectivity with wireless-based services due to enhanced 5G and LTE-Advanced coverage, fixed-wireless services, and increased data allotments for mobile hot spots.

These trends create both revenue opportunities and disruption for CSPs as cable providers have opportunity to take market share from telecom operators and vice-versa. Cross-selling multiple services enables CSPs to maximize revenue opportunities per customer while also helping to reduce churn. Conversely, the deeper convergence within the telecom and cable industries will create greater challenges for CSPs as broadband and video access will become more commoditized, which will make competitive pricing more crucial to attracting and retaining customers.

Graph showing 3Q18 postpaid phone net additions

Cable MVNOs are disrupting the mobility industry

Comcast’s Xfinity Mobile has emerged as a stronger player within the U.S. wireless market as the brand has garnered over 1 million customers since launching in mid-2017 and has been able to consistently outperform AT&T and Sprint in postpaid phone net additions the past several quarters. Contributing to Xfinity Mobile’s success is the low price of its unlimited data plans, which are currently undercutting prices from all Tier 1 U.S. operators, for the underserved market of single-line customers. Xfinity Mobile is also attracting customers by offering pay-as-you-go pricing for $12 per GB, which provides price-sensitive customers who consume minimal data an alternative amid the market’s emphasis on unlimited data plans.

Xfinity Mobile will become a stronger competitor in the U.S. market over the next several years as it expands its retail footprint and Comcast gains additional broadband customers to which it can cross-sell wireless services. Spectrum Mobile, which became available across Charter’s footprint in September, will also disrupt the U.S. wireless market by offering similar pricing incentives as Xfinity Mobile. Additionally, Altice USA plans to launch an MVNO offering in 1H19 that will focus on serving bring-your-own-device customers, giving the company the opportunity to cross-sell mobility services to its current residential base of over 4.5 million customers.

Chart showing single-line postpaid unlimited data plans

To counter disruption from cable MVNOs, operators can capitalize on the value proposition offered by their unlimited data plans, which bundle in popular OTT streaming services as well as other incentives including high-speed data tiers for mobile hot spots. Telecom operators are also relying on the discounts provided to multiline unlimited data accounts, which are not currently offered to Xfinity Mobile and Spectrum Mobile customers, to undercut cable MVNOs.

Chart showing video services bundled with unlimited data plans

Wireless begins to disrupt the traditional fixed broadband market

Significant enhancements in wireless technology over the past few years, such as the inception of 5G, which makes millimeter-wave spectrum viable for commercial use, as well as the inventions of carrier aggregation, 256 QAM and massive MIMO, have made it economically feasible for CSPs to offer mobile broadband as an alternative to traditional fixed broadband services.

Though Verizon was a major driver of this trend with its early use of 5G fixed wireless, TBR expects more CSPs will begin to leverage their wireless assets to provide similar services in 2019 and beyond. AT&T, with its Netgear Nighthawk 5G Mobile Hotspot, essentially provides a nomadic ultra-high-speed broadband connection leveraging 5G. T-Mobile is also looking to jump on the bandwagon, arguably in a much bigger and more market-impactful way, especially if its proposed merger with Sprint is approved. Regardless of whether the deal goes through, T-Mobile intends to leverage its mix of low-, mid- and high-band spectrum assets with the aforementioned wireless technologies to provide its own mobile broadband as an alternative to fixed broadband services.

A new phase of price competition for internet service could come to North America due to wireless. TBR also expects this trend to unfold in other developed and developing markets, especially where fixed access is not widely deployed. Offering wirelessly delivered, high-speed internet services could become a major new business for telecom operators that are in countries where internet penetration is relatively low.

Consumers will reap the greatest benefits from cable and telecom industry convergence

Though CSPs have the opportunity to create new revenue streams from the deeper convergence of mobility, broadband and video services within the cable and telecom industries, these benefits are largely outweighed by the competitive challenges spawned by industry convergence. Consumers will reap the greatest benefits from cable and telecom industry convergence as they gain more flexible service options as well as the ability to enroll in additional services from a single provider. The competition created from cable and telecom industry convergence will also spur CSPs to become more competitive in their wireless, broadband and video pricing to maintain market share.

Opportunities for wireless subscriber growth remain plentiful for U.S. operators

Cable providers are disrupting the U.S. wireless market

Subscriber growth for U.S. Tier 1 operators is being limited by the growing momentum of Comcast’s Xfinity Mobile brand, which outperformed AT&T and Sprint in postpaid phone net additions in 3Q18 and now has a base of over 1 million subscribers. Xfinity Mobile will become a stronger competitor in the U.S. market over the next several years as it expands its retail footprint and Comcast gains additional broadband customers to which it can cross-sell wireless service. Spectrum Mobile, which became available across Charter’s footprint in September, will also disrupt the U.S. wireless market by offering similar pricing incentives as Xfinity Mobile.

 

TBR’s U.S. & Canada Mobile Operator Benchmark details and compares the activities of the largest U.S. and Canadian operators, including financial performance, go-to-market initiatives and resource management strategies. Covered companies include AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Sprint (NYSE: S), T-Mobile (Nasdaq: TMUS), U.S. Cellular (NYSE: USM), Rogers, Telus and Bell Mobility.

U.S. operators will improve service revenue in 2H18 via continued subscriber growth and adoption of premium unlimited data plans

HAMPTON, N.H. (Sept. 11, 2018) — Wireless revenue rose 2.4% year-to-year to $59.1 billion among U.S. carriers covered in Technology Business Research Inc.’s (TBR) 2Q18 U.S. & Canada Mobile Operator Benchmark. The increase came as a result of higher equipment revenue spurred by the adoption of premium devices as well as improving service revenue trends. Verizon and AT&T (when excluding the impact of the ASC 606 revenue recognition standard) were able to return to year-to-year service revenue growth in 2Q18 as the bulk of customers have transitioned to nonsubsidized service plans. Service revenue is also benefiting from customers migrating from lower-priced tiered data plans to more expensive unlimited data plans and will be further aided by the recent launch of new premium unlimited data tiers, such as Verizon’s Above Unlimited and Sprint’s Unlimited Plus plans.

Graph depicting 2Q18 wireless revenue, OIBDA margin and year-to-year growth

Service revenue will also benefit from U.S. operators sustaining smartphone and connected device subscriber growth in 2H18. “Despite growing smartphone saturation, all Tier 1 U.S. operators were able to gain postpaid phone net additions in 2Q18 as opportunity remains to target first-time wireless customers, including young adults and immigrants entering the country,” said TBR Telecom Analyst Steve Vachon. “Postpaid phone subscriber growth is also coming at the expense of prepaid growth, which is slowing as more customers qualify for postpaid plans as the economy improves. Operators are also expanding their connected device portfolios in areas including wearables and connected car to bolster postpaid subscriber growth. The Apple Watch 3 has particularly bolstered postpaid connections as the device is the first Apple Watch model capable of receiving LTE connectivity.”

Combined wireless revenue among Tier 1 Canadian carriers rose 5.1% year-to-year to $6.2 billion due to continued postpaid additions spurred by shared data programs and expanding LTE-Advanced coverage. The postpaid market in Canada continues to flourish, with Bell Mobility and Rogers increasing postpaid net additions year-to-year in 2Q18, in part due to the country having a significantly lower wireless penetration rate, which is currently estimated at about 87%, compared to the U.S. Canadian operators are also bolstering postpaid subscriber growth by providing low-cost connectivity options to support connected devices, including tablets and wearables, as part of their shared-data family plans. Competitive pressures are challenging average revenue per user (ARPU), however, as Bell Mobility and Telus experienced year-to-year blended ARPU declines in 2Q18 as the companies priced more aggressively to maintain market share. ARPU declines were also driven by Tier 1 Canadian operators offering targeted promotions to combat aggressive pricing offers from regional companies such as Videotron and Shaw’s Freedom Mobile brand.

The U.S. & Canada Mobile Operator Benchmark details and compares the activities of the largest U.S. and Canadian operators, including financial performance, go-to-market initiatives and resource management strategies. Covered companies include AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile, U.S. Cellular, Rogers, Telus and Bell Mobility.

For additional information about this research or to arrange a one-on-one analyst briefing, please contact Dan Demers at +1 603.929.1166 or [email protected].

 

ABOUT TBR

Technology Business Research, Inc. is a leading independent technology market research and consulting firm specializing in the business and financial analyses of hardware, software, professional services, and telecom vendors and operators. Serving a global clientele, TBR provides timely and actionable market research and business intelligence in a format that is uniquely tailored to clients’ needs. Our analysts are available to address client-specific issues further or information needs on an inquiry or proprietary consulting basis.

TBR has been empowering corporate decision makers since 1996. For more information, please visit www.tbri.com.

 

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