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Two Back, Three Forward: All about consecutive quarters

In our new weekly blog series Two Back, Three Forward, we look at two numbers in TBR reports from the prior week as well as three numbers from our upcoming reports, highlighting the analysis TBR provides and the vast amount of data — the numbers — we’re working with every day. It’s all about the data and what that data means to you.

Two Back

$1.47B, Cognizant’s 4Q19 earnings from financial services clients: As noted in our full report, Cognizant’s Financial Services (FS) revenue increased last quarter, but at a slower pace than the company overall, partly due to softness from European banking clients, according to Cognizant. We’ve heard this complaint from other India-centric vendors and will be publishing a special report this month on what those companies have been doing to offset those pressures. To keep some context, FS remains Cognizant’s largest vertical, at 34.3%, but this trend bears watching.

3, consecutive quarters IBM’s healthcare IT services revenue has declined: 2019 was unquestionably an off year for IBM’s healthcare IT services (HITS), but our most recent analysis indicates the company will rebound in 2020 through new leadership, partnerships and technologies. Considering IBM’s long history of excelling in all three of those areas, we’re predicting a modest 2.2% expansion this year. See the full IBM HITS report for all the analysis.

Three Forward

71.2%, contribution of DXC Technology’s Cloud Professional Services segment to overall cloud revenue, per TBR estimates: Nothing surprising about cloud professional services earning the greatest share of revenue, but what stands out is the 9.6% growth rate of that service line within DXC’s overall cloud practice. Ahead of the other service lines and far better than the company as a whole (-3% over the same period). As we note in the upcoming full report, “DXC’s established relationships with major public cloud providers such as Microsoft and AWS [Amazon Web Services] enable the company to build out integrated solutions and maintain healthy growth in 2020 providing cloud management and migration services.” Further, the company continues investing in cloud-savvy professionals even as it bolsters its traditional IT services talent. DXC’s long-term strategy, including around cloud, appears solid.

More than 50%, Capgemini’s digital and cloud revenues as a percentage of total revenue: Like most IT services peers, Capgemini has strategically shifted resources and investments toward new opportunities in cloud and digital, in part through expanding capabilities alongside partners, developing solutions with partners like AWS, and acquiring talent and IP. Even if revenue growth slows from 5.3% year-to-year in constant currency in 2019 to something closer to 4% in 2020, as Capgemini expects, we don’t expect digital and cloud revenues will ever again dip below the 50% line, even if Capgemini joins market leaders in moving beyond the term digital.

3, consecutive quarters in which Perspecta elevated its FY20 guidance: Due to accelerated demand and strong bookings of net-new work, Perspecta is now guiding for annual revenue growth of between $4.45 billion and $4.5 billion, or 4.1% and 5.3%, over FY19. Even with healthy revenue growth, TBR projects the company’s full-year gross margin will erode 2020 (declining from 24.9% in 2019 to 23.6% in 2020) due to  accumulating costs from its acquisition of Knight Point Systems, the launch of new delivery facilities, and investment in Perspecta Labs. Perspecta’s 2020 operating margin should increase 10 points over 2019, from 6.2% to 6.3%, as unprofitable contracts are completed and Perspecta converts strong bookings of more lucrative and net-new contracts featuring the company’s expanding store of homegrown IP. In all, TBR sees steady growth as more important than financial guidance adjustments, given our concern for strategy and performance, not stock price.

AI, Accenture and Amazon: HITS acquisitions update 2020

Accenture’s steady appetite, Amazon’s potential new offering and Google’s uncertain moves

Accenture’s acquisition of Clarity Insights follows the company’s INTIENT purchase and rounds out a typically active acquisition year for one of the leaders in TBR’s HITS benchmark. Clarity Insights brings Accenture AI and machine learning capabilities, 350 healthcare data scientists, and healthcare industry clients. As noted in our most recent full report on Accenture’s HITS business, “Accenture targeted the AI opportunity in life sciences in mid-2019, launching its INTIENT platform for collecting, storing, monitoring and analyzing data from life sciences clients’ business environments. The platform leverages Accenture Applied Intelligence to provide AI and analytics services, improving efficiency and data management.” Beyond extending Accenture’s capabilities, the Clarity Insights acquisition reinforces Accenture’s strategy around AI and life sciences that the INTIENT purchase supported. The report adds, “TBR believes Accenture must foster industry-specific partnerships to extend the capabilities of INTIENT and drive traction for the platform in the industry.” TBR will closely track how Accenture’s partnerships evolve and how the company drives new revenue based on these acquisitions.

Echoing Accenture’s focus on AI, Amazon acquired Health Navigator, a platform designed to foster more expeditious collaboration between healthcare providers and patients, in part through natural language processing and enhanced analytics. Amazon reportedly purchased the company amid efforts to build out Amazon Care, its in-house healthcare services, which it launched in September 2019. On the surface, Amazon’s healthcare-related acquisitions and moves denote neither an immediate threat to traditional HITS vendors nor a clear signal Amazon intends to become a different kind of player in the HITS space. Analyzing Amazon only on the surface would be foolishly shortsighted. Once the company irons out the challenges within Amazon Care, including fully integrating Health Navigator, TBR expects the company will craft a new offering for Amazon clients, potentially starting first with healthcare joint venture partners JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A; NYSE: BRK.B). At 1.2 million employees for those three companies combined, Amazon would have a sizable test bed for enhancing current capabilities and developing new offerings. If Amazon can demonstrate an ability to provide top-notch healthcare services for its own employees and a few select partners, every household will wonder if the first step in getting healthcare should start with, “Alexa …”     

In acquiring Fitbit, Alphabet (Google) alarmed some data privacy and industry analysts concerned that the search engine and advertising giant bought the wearables company to gain access to massive amounts of personal, and specifically healthcare-related, data. Both companies’ executives declared data protections would be unchanged and the underlying reasons for the acquisition centered on Fitbit’s expertise and intellectual property around wearable devices and health-tracking applications, platforms and user experience. In TBR’s view, acquiring Fitbit conforms with Google’s overall expansion strategy and specifically boosts the company’s potential role in the overall HITS space. Enhancing Fitbit’s platform with Google’s AI capabilities could further minimize perennial HITS challenges, such as around data privacy and population health, but only if Google can manage the delicate tasks of leveraging user data without violating privacy, crafting and enhancing algorithms that improve the user experience, and maintaining the streamlined seamless flexibility of Fitbit even as the data flows into the highly regulated healthcare ecosystem.  

TBR Weekly Preview: March 18-22

In addition to this week’s vendor analysis, TBR Senior Analyst John Caucis will host a webinar Wednesday, March 20, sharing his insights on the state of the healthcare IT services market and the 2019 HIMSS mega-event. 

Furthermore, TBR analysts will be attending several events this week, so be on the lookout for special reports on Accenture, SAP and Oracle as early as next week.

Monday

  • Despite its top-tier innovation and optimistic messaging, Oracle struggles to find incremental growth outside its cloud ERP portfolio. While traction around autonomous database builds, these ERP inroads present an opportunity for Oracle to more effectively craft a story across its integrated cloud applications and platform capabilities. TBR’s initial findings can be accessed today, but read more on the subject in our 1Q19 Oracle Cloud full report publishing in April. (Meaghan McGrath leads TBR’s analysis of Oracle.)

Wednesday

  • HP Inc. delivered corporate growth of 1.3% year-to-year, a significant slowdown after five quarters of double-digit growth. During the company’s 4Q18 earnings call, executives discussed challenges within HP Inc.’s profitable print supplies business, but slowed growth in its commercial printing and overall PC businesses indicates the problem is broader. Slowing consolidation opportunities and rising opposition from its peers in the PC market will increasingly challenge HP Inc., whose PC business composes most of its top line. In addition, the CPU shortage has been more impactful to HP Inc.’s wider portfolio. Read our full report to find how HP Inc. will navigate these challenges throughout 2019, including growing its Device as a Service portfolio and supporting its sales channels to build a bulwark for upcoming PC share wars. (See Dan Callahan for more analysis.)

Thursday

  • According to TBR estimates, Dell Technologies achieved $23.8 billion in revenue, up 8.6% year-to-year in 4Q18. Gross profit increased 20.7% year-to-year, highlighting Dell Technologies’ successful improvement in overall profitability. In TBR’s 4Q18 full report on the company, we will dive into the performance of key business units. Within Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), TBR believes aggressive market share expansion in both servers and storage will be a key focus for at least the first half of 2019, which will result in investments in direct sales, ISG’s channel partner program and portfolio enhancements. In Client Solutions Group, Dell Technologies will continue to benefit from shrinking memory prices as well as the CPU shortages, which will drive profitability up during 2019. From a corporate perspective, 2019 will see tightened integration between the vendor’s strategically aligned companies. (See Stephanie Long for more analysis.)
  • In this quarter’s analysis of Dell EMC Services, TBR will highlight how Dell Technologies integrating preconfigured services solutions around core infrastructure technology competencies enables Dell EMC Services to attach profitable and recurring services revenue streams. (Kevin Collupy leads TBR’s analysis of Dell EMC Services.)
  • In 4Q18 Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) reported corporate revenue of $7.6 billion, down 1.6% year-to-year. TBR estimates total cloud revenue reached $1.9 billion, up 3.1% year-to-year, as HPE continued to invest in its cloud portfolio and capitalize on customer demand for hybrid IT solutions. HPE’s leaner business and ongoing restructuring efforts through HPE Next allow HPE Cloud to focus on and invest further in its core areas of strength, namely hybrid infrastructure and edge computing for IoT and telecommunications use cases. (Cassandra Mooshian leads TBR’s coverage of HPE Cloud.)
  • VMware’s top-line growth continues to outpace that of its software peers in TBR’s Infrastructure Management Software Vendor Benchmark. In 4Q18 VMware experienced its strongest quarter since 3Q14, with revenue growth of 16.4% year-to-year to $2.6. Revenue growth was buoyed by strong adoption across VMware’s emerging product lines, with vSAN revenue growing 60% year-to-year and Hybrid Cloud and SaaS revenue growing 35% in the same time period. Further, the company is successfully packaging solutions around hybrid management to increase deal sizes and reported a company-record 23 deals in excess of $10 million during the quarter. (Cassandra Mooshian leads TBR’s coverage of VMware.)
  • Huawei is taking a prominent role in setting standards for 5G and launching solutions to help operators implement 5G services, which has led to key early commercial 5G-related contracts in EMEA and APAC. While security concerns around 5G will persist, Huawei will continue to grow revenue in 2019 largely due to its Consumer and Enterprise business units, which are taking share from incumbents.(Michael Soper leads TBR’s coverage of Huawei.)

Friday

  • According to TBR’s 1Q19 Telecom IoT Market Landscape, TBR estimates global communication service provider (CSP) IoT revenue rose 25.6% year-to-year to $22.3 billion in 2018. Despite sustaining strong revenue growth, TBR estimates global CSP IoT revenue accounted for only 1% of consolidated global CSP revenue in 2018, which is insufficient for most service providers to offset erosion within challenged segments such as legacy network services. To maximize IoT revenue opportunities long term, CSPs are focusing on attracting customers by implementing more cost-efficient network technologies such as NB-IoT and LTE-M, targeting high-value contracts in areas such as smart cities and healthcare, and by positioning to support next-generation IoT solutions integrating technologies such as 5G and edge computing. (Steve Vachon is TBR’s lead analyst covering the Telecom IoT space.)

TBR Weekly Preview: March 4-8

As we start winding down beginning-of-the-year earnings calls, here’s what you can expect from the TBR team this week:

Tuesday:

  • In 3Q18 TBR noted Salesforce built on its industry-specific strategies by releasing Financial Services Cloud for retail banking and by expanding its target audience for Education Cloud. Salesforce’s ongoing innovation to address vertical use cases and ability to understand customers’ business needs enabled the vendor to execute multiproduct deals in 4Q18. TBR expects Salesforce will close 4Q18 with $12.2 billion in annual revenue, keeping the vendor on track to attain its $21 billion to $23 billion annual revenue goal in 2021. (See Jack McElwee for more analysis.)
  • Google Cloud’s hiring of Thomas Kurian as CEO (replacing Diane Greene) is meant to attract enterprise customers and facilitate stronger competition at scale with Amazon Web Services and Microsoft; Kurian, former Oracle president of Product Development, brings deep understanding and detailed messaging on the technical and business impacts of cloud. TBR’s 4Q18 report will detail Google Cloud’s continued innovation among its core AI and ML portfolios while partnering and leveraging Kurian’s clout to gain enterprise mindshare, which will be increasingly critical to long-term success. (For everything Google and cloud, see Cassandra Mooshian.)

Thursday:

  • Cisco continues to grow revenue as it transforms itself through acquisitions, divestments and new product releases that enable the company to reduce its reliance on hardware — a commoditizing market — and embrace software. TBR’s 4Q18 Cisco report will include deep dives on Cisco’s most recent acquisitions, including Luxtera, which will help Cisco attract more webscale spend and improve the performance of its proprietary-based solutions, as well as Ensoft and Singularity Networks, which will broaden Cisco’s software capabilities in the service provider space. (Mike Soper leads TBR’s analysis on Cisco.)
  • TBR will also report on Cisco Services and the company’s expansion around software and next-generation solutions, which has created advisory and implementation opportunities that enabled Cisco Services to accelerate growth in 2018. An increase in software-related services as well as adoption of next-generation secure and intelligent platforms and products that support clients’ digital business will create attached services opportunities for Cisco Services, driving revenue expansion throughout 2019. (For more on Cisco Services, see Kelly Lesiczka.)
  • TBR’s latest report on Perspecta will provide an update on how the fledgling company is managing the task of integrating three legacy organizations into a unified whole. In past reports, we have talked about how the company’s innovation incubator, Perspecta Labs, underpins its long-term position in the federal services landscape. Our 4Q18 Perspecta report will dive more deeply into how the company introduces Perspecta Labs to its biggest client, the U.S. Navy, in advance of the recompete of Perspecta’s largest contract, which entails managing the Navy Next Generation Enterprise Network. (Joey Cresta heads up TBR’s Public Sector practice.)
  • As reported in our initial response, NetApp earned $1.6 billion in revenue in 4Q18, representing a 1.6% year-to-year increase. Strong 1H18 revenue momentum enabled the vendor to achieve solid year-to-year revenue growth for 2018, demonstrating the success of some of NetApp’s strategic moves during the year. Our full report will dive into the 2018 establishment of a cloud infrastructure business unit that will enable NetApp to pivot its portfolio further in 2019, as the company, one of the few major pure play storage vendors left in the market, transforms itself to establish its brand as one that enables customers’ digital transformations. (See Stephanie Long for more analysis.)

Friday:

  • Utilizing its technology expertise and ability to address clients’ business challenges, Capgemini reached its 2018 revenue growth and profitability goals and is confidently moving into 2019. Capgemini’s bookings reached their highest level since 1Q17 in 4Q18. In the latest full report, TBR will note how the increase in bookings, combined with Capgemini’s unified go-to-market approach; enhanced offerings around digital, cloud and industry-specific solutions; and reinforced expertise via training and reskilling, will enable the company to sustain revenue growth. (Elitsa Bakalova covers Capgemini for TBR.)

Be on the lookout for additional analysis from TBR, including assessments of Accenture Technology and TELUS International. TBR’s next webinar will be held March 20 and feature Senior Analyst John Caucis talking about healthcare IT services.

Enabling stakeholders across the healthcare ecosystem to navigate the path to value-based care

An exclusive review of TBR’s Healthcare IT Services Benchmark

Growth in the global healthcare IT services (HITS) market is accelerating as health IT investment converges around value, patient-centrism and innovative, next-generation healthcare technologies. The environment strongly favoring HITS vendors with the most ubiquitous and comprehensively integrated suites of legacy and emerging health IT solutions.

Join John Caucis March 20 as he discusses how HITS vendors are evolving their solutions and go-to-market approaches to effectively navigate the changing healthcare market. Additionally, John will review the results of TBR’s most recent Healthcare IT Services Benchmark and highlight the trends shaping the HITS market in 2019.

Don’t miss:

  • Revenue growth and profit drivers for HITS vendors
  • HITS providers that are emerging as market leaders, and why
  • Factors driving solution introductions, alliance formation and acquisitions by HITS vendors

 

TBR webinars are held typically on Wednesdays at 1 p.m. ET and include a 15-minute Q&A session following the main presentation. Previous webinars can be viewed at anytime on TBR’s Webinar Portal.

For additional information or to arrange a briefing with our analysts, please contact TBR at [email protected].

Cognizant, DXC, HCLT prepared to implement SCM systems for healthcare providers

In the current healthcare provider landscape, maintaining operational efficiency has proved to be costly and challenging. A patient’s information about products prescribed, drugs administered and services provided will flow through the hands of multiple stakeholders. Pharmaceutical manufacturers, insurance companies, hospitals, healthcare staff and the patient must somehow communicate information with each other to maintain accurate records and deliver appropriate care. Healthcare providers must seek new technologies to not only cut costs but also change the way they deliver their services.

Technology Business Research, Inc. announces 3Q18 webinar schedule

HAMPTON, N.H. (May 22, 2018) — Technology Business Research, Inc. (TBR) announces the schedule for its 3Q18 webinar series.

July 11          Wallet vs. will: Transformation of government technology adoption

Aug. 8           Revenue growth drivers and opportunities in the IT services market

Aug. 15        IoT vendor roles

Sept. 12       Going inside customers’ minds to predict the future of cloud

Sept. 19       Webscale ICT market update

Sept. 26       The value imperative: Healthcare IT services vendors reorient around value-centric models of care delivery and payment

TBR webinars are held typically each Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET and include a 15-minute Q&A session following the main presentation. Previous webinars can be viewed anytime on TBR’s website.

For additional information or to arrange a briefing with our analysts, please contact TBR at [email protected].

 

ABOUT TBR

Technology Business Research, Inc. is a leading independent technology market research and consulting firm specializing in the business and financial analyses of hardware, software, professional services, and telecom vendors and operators. Serving a global clientele, TBR provides timely and actionable market research and business intelligence in a format that is uniquely tailored to clients’ needs. Our analysts are available to address client-specific issues further or information needs on an inquiry or proprietary consulting basis.

TBR has been empowering corporate decision makers since 1996. For more information please visit www.tbri.com.

 

 

HITS vendors met a throng of sector-specific and external headwinds to round out 2017

HAMPTON, N.H. (Jan. 10, 2018) Healthcare IT services (HITS) trailing 12-month revenue continued to slow in 3Q17, falling to 3.8% in 3Q17 from 5.4% in 2Q17. The ongoing trend of decelerating sales growth owes largely to a dearth of strategic acquisitions by the HITS companies tracked by Technology Business Research, Inc. (TBR), turbulence in the U.S. payer market being drawn out by U.S. legislative inaction on proposed reforms to the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and a series of natural disasters in North America during 3Q17 that impacted provider IT spending patterns.

“The ongoing absence of a legislative resolution to the ACA-reform process continues to generate significant downward pressure on sales in the health insurance sector,” said Senior Analyst John Caucis, TBR’s public sector and healthcare lead. “The M&A-generated tailwind on HITS revenue growth through 2016 has all but dissipated, save for Allscripts’ acquisition of McKesson Enterprise Information Solutions and a handful of smaller-scale acquisitions by Allscripts’ HITS counterparts. Compounding the impact of weak health payer IT spending on overall HITS growth were the natural disasters that occurred in 3Q17: hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, which impacted the Caribbean and the U.S., as well as a pair of earthquakes in Mexico.”

The final participant tally from the open-enrollment period that ran until Dec. 15, 2017 (8.8 million enrollees, down from 9.2 million in 2016), suggests the current lull in payer IT spending may persist, though a growing number of HITS vendors believe the IT investment trough among health insurers has been reached. Aside from the current solution focus on analytics, population health management and revenue cycle management, opportunities for HITS solutions, as well as advisory services, will emerge in 2018 in ambulatory and post-acute care, behavioral health, and employer services.

For additional information about this research or to arrange a one-on-one analyst briefing, please contact Dan Demers at +1 603.758.1803 or [email protected].

 

ABOUT TBR

Technology Business Research, Inc. is a leading independent technology market research and consulting firm specializing in the business and financial analyses of hardware, software, professional services, and telecom vendors and operators. Serving a global clientele, TBR provides timely and actionable market research and business intelligence in a format that is uniquely tailored to clients’ needs. Our analysts are available to address client-specific issues further or information needs on an inquiry or proprietary consulting basis.

TBR has been empowering corporate decision makers since 1996. For more information please visit www.tbri.com.