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Amid a consolidating market, vendors adopt creative initiatives to fight for mission-critical cloud workloads

Public cloud growth leaders

While Amazon Web Services (AWS) continues to dominate the public cloud IaaS market, its rivals continue to expand in the space and even collaborate to take market share. Microsoft and Oracle added a new data center interconnection in Amsterdam, deepening the ties between the vendors as they enable customers to run Oracle workloads on Azure and integrate workloads between the vendors’ clouds. TBR believes Microsoft and Oracle will continue to improve their competitive position against AWS as more data center interconnections are added. In addition, TBR expects Alibaba will become a growing threat to AWS and other U.S.-based vendors as it builds out data centers in APAC and EMEA.

1Q20 Public Cloud: Percentage of Revenue Growth vs. Absolute Dollar Growth

Public cloud remains the largest and fastest growing segment of the cloud market. Changes in customer acceptance, data integrations and innovation have combined to sustain the rapid growth of public cloud adoption. The Public Cloud Benchmark details how hybrid deployments, new use cases for enterprise apps, and trends in emerging technology will make public cloud even more relevant in the future.

IaaS and PaaS leaders maintain their current positions in the public cloud market but face mounting competition

Coopetition is growing among vendors to outcompete leaders in the public cloud market, and customers have responded positively by integrating multivendor environments. TBR expects this coopetition will enable multiline vendors to attain notable growth, but likely not until roughly 3Q20, after the COVID-19 pandemic abates, as enterprises manage remote workforces rather than undergo vast integrations.

Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft, Google and Alibaba will continue to lead the global public cloud market, with Google and Alibaba driving the most significant total public cloud revenue growth among large vendors due to their smaller revenue bases. While these rivals battle globally, TBR expects competition will be greatest in Europe.

Public cloud remains the largest and fastest growing segment of the cloud market. Changes in customer acceptance, data integrations and innovation have combined to sustain the rapid growth of public cloud adoption. TBR’s Public Cloud Benchmark details how hybrid deployments, new use cases for enterprise apps, and trends in emerging technology will make public cloud even more relevant in the future.

Webscale capex growth will decelerate, though dollar volume will continue to climb, as data center builds slow

According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) 1Q19 Webscale ICT Market Landscape, webscale ICT capex for the Super 7 will grow at an 8.1% CAGR to nearly $58 billion in 2023. Most U.S.- and China-based webscales began pulling forward significant investment in data center and network capacity in 2018, which will lead to moderating — or even declining — capex levels for some U.S.-based players beginning in 2020. China-based webscales will continue to ramp ICT capex through the forecast period, however, to catch up to Western rivals in key areas, particularly public cloud.

Webscale "Super 7" capex forecast

The entrance of Rakuten, a Japan-based e-commerce company, to the mobile industry could be a game changer and provides a glimpse into what a digital service provider will look like. Rakuten’s mobile network will blanket Japan with LTE coverage by year-end. Not only will Rakuten’s network be agile, flexible and dynamic to provide digital services, it will also enable a dramatic reduction in the cost of connectivity. Rakuten’s ultimate intention is to be more than just another mobile network operator in the highly competitive Japan market; it aims to provide a foundational connectivity platform from which to sell a host of digital services. Rakuten’s acknowledgment that it needs its own network could lead to other webscales trying to take a more active ownership and control stance toward having a connectivity platform from which they can leverage their digital businesses. Alphabet, Facebook and Amazon, among other webscales, have all experimented with how to address last-mile connectivity, not only to bridge the digital divide but also to serve as a conduit to give them more control over their destinies without relying on communication service providers (CSPs) to provide the connectivity layer.

The OEM landscape continues to see disruption due in part to the power webscales hold over their suppliers. The vast number of suppliers taking part in Rakuten’s network build demonstrates that webscales hold the power when soliciting vendors for connectivity initiatives. When engaging with webscales, which have few legacy encumbrances, incumbent OEMs are being relegated to commoditized hardware and services. Should the 5G era bring about this trend in the CSP customer segment, incumbents will see more widespread disruption. Vendors must be wary of the webscale procurement model taking hold with their traditional customers.

Customer preferences are forming around hybrid and shifting around open source as vendors focus on acquisitions

Prebuilt devices are a ray of clarity amid the fogginess of hybrid

Hybrid can be a difficult thing to define in cloud computing. The term “hybrid” is overused by vendors but underused by customers, causing general confusion over its definition as well as solid examples of hybrid solutions. An area of the market that cuts through those areas of confusion is hybrid cloud integrated systems. These are physical devices (appliances) that are designed to integrate with public cloud services and can be used in customers’ own data centers. The idea that customers can physically touch the box and also integrate with external cloud services makes integrated systems one of the easiest and most obvious hybrid scenarios.

Examples of integrated systems solutions include Azure Stack from Microsoft and its hardware partners and Cloud at Customer from Oracle. While adoption and usage of these hybrid cloud solutions remain limited, the trend is picking up momentum and is prompting vendors such as Amazon and Google to move closer to competing in the space, particularly as customer demand from heavily regulated industries favors local versions of vendor-hosted cloud infrastructure. For example, Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft are the two front-runners in the race to win the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI) contract. While AWS has largely been seen as the overall favorite, its Snowball Edge offering does not meet the same bidirectional synchronization requirement of the tactical edge device that Azure Stack does.

Kubernetes season is in full swing as OpenStack falters

For large enterprise customers, open-source technologies have garnered much interest as part of their cloud strategies. The ability to utilize solutions that provide the same backbone as large cloud providers while maintaining the control associated with open source has been an attractive value proposition for those with the resources to implement and manage them. However, predicting which technologies will be the most commonly adopted has been more challenging, creating uncertainty around frameworks such as OpenStack, which has yet to garner significant momentum in the market.

Compounding the hurdles for OpenStack to overcome continues to be the ongoing explosion in growth among public cloud IaaS front-runners AWS, Google, Microsoft and Alibaba. OpenStack founders and former OpenStack pure plays are making notable shifts toward Kubernetes. The difference, though, is that Canonical and Red Hat are still holding onto OpenStack, while others, such as Rackspace, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, IBM and Mirantis, de-emphasize it.

Customers increasingly understand the benefits of containers and container orchestration platforms and embrace the portability and interoperability they provide. According to a recent interview done as part of TBR’s Cloud Customer Research Program, a retail SVP, CIO and CTO said, “You need to make sure there are escape clauses in your contracts in case you need to get out. Once you’re in it, you’re pretty much married, and that divorce is really bad. That’s the reason we have a container. … Because if it starts to get too expensive, we want to pull it off quickly.”

This is just one example of the immediate enterprise benefits of container and container orchestration platforms, which can change the game for enterprises in terms of their cloud adoption road maps and long-term cloud plans.

Hybridization is becoming even more widespread than customers realize

While pre-integrated devices are the most obvious examples of hybrid usage, the vast majority of activity is occurring in more subtle situations. This activity is driven by the desire among vendors to sell broader solutions and the desire among customers to implement services that integrate with existing and other new technologies. The good news for both sides of the market is that there are more capabilities than ever to put those more cohesive, integrated solutions in place.

Salesforce, whose solutions are commonly integrated into hybrid environments, has taken a notable step into the hybrid enablement space by acquiring MuleSoft. The acquisition, which closed on May 1 at the start of Salesforce’s FY2Q19, brings MuleSoft’s well-known integration Platform as a Service (iPaaS) solution and services into Salesforce’s arsenal. The implications for Salesforce, its customers and the market are vast, as the company can create connections between its applications and the variety of other cloud and legacy systems residing in customers’ environments. Salesforce quickly leveraged the iPaaS technology, bringing Salesforce Integration Cloud to market within the first few months of having MuleSoft on board, enabling customers to augment their Salesforce applications and derive greater insights from their non-Salesforce data.

Super 7 webscale total capex spend will reach $123B in 2022

Infographic showing webscale "Super 7" capex forecast for 2017 through 2022

 

Data center builds and expansions as well as AI investment drive growth

According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) 3Q18 Webscale ICT Market Landscape, webscale ICT capex for the “Super 7” will grow at a 26.2% CAGR from 2017 to 2022 to more than $69 billion as these top webscales aim to future-proof business-critical infrastructure and map network capacity to data traffic growth, which is expected to increase exponentially through the forecast period.

Webscales are investing tens of billions of dollars in new data centers, either to support their core businesses or to increase the scale of their cloud services businesses. Capex spend is spiking in 2018 as many of the Super 7 build new facilities on land they acquired in 2017. Amazon’s 30.4% year-to-year ICT capex growth rate in 2018 is noticeably lower than that of its peers, which is largely due to its leading presence in the cloud services market. Challengers Microsoft, Alphabet and Alibaba will grow 2018 ICT capex 73.6%, 100.3%, and 101.6%, respectively, year-to-year in a bid to catch up to market leader Amazon Web Services.

The OEM landscape is being upended as webscales embrace ODMs and open-source technology. A growing number of ODMs aim to take share from incumbent hardware vendors such as Cisco and Dell EMC. Webscales often possess the talent necessary to design their own equipment, then outsource production to an ODM. In these instances, the software is disaggregated from the hardware and the code is written by webscale software engineers. This threat gives webscales negotiating power over incumbents. Some vendors, such as Cisco, mitigating the threat from ODMs with acquisitions, strong customer relationships and litigation.

For more information, contact Senior Analyst Michael Soper at [email protected].

Data center builds and expansions, along with AI investments, will drive webscale ‘Super 7’ ICT capex to $69B by 2022

HAMPTON, N.H. (Sept. 6, 2018) According to Technology Business Research, Inc.’s (TBR) 3Q18 Webscale ICT Market Landscape, webscale ICT capex for the “Super 7” will grow at a 26.2% CAGR to over $69 billion in 2022 as these top webscales aim to future-proof business-critical infrastructure and map network capacity to data traffic growth, which is expected to increase exponentially through the forecast period. Webscales are investing tens of billions of dollars in new data centers, either to support their core businesses or to increase the scale of their cloud services businesses.

“Capex spend is spiking in 2018 as the Super 7 build new facilities on land acquired in 2017. Amazon’s 30.4% ICT capex growth rate in 2018 is noticeably lower than its peers, which is largely due to its leading presence in the cloud services market,” said Michael Soper, a senior analyst at TBR. “Challengers Microsoft, Alphabet and Alibaba will grow 2018 ICT capex 73.6%, 100.3%, and 101.6%, respectively, year-to-year in a bid to catch up to market leader Amazon Web Services.”

The OEM landscape is being upended as webscales embrace ODMs and open-source technology. A growing number of ODMs aim to take share from incumbent hardware vendors such as Cisco and Dell EMC. Webscales often possess the talent necessary to design their own equipment, then outsource production to an ODM. In these instances, the software is disaggregated from the hardware and the code is written by webscale software engineers. This threat gives webscales negotiating power over incumbents. Cisco is mitigating the threat from ODMs with acquisitions, strong customer relationships and litigation.

TBR’s Webscale ICT Market Landscape tracks the ICT-related initiatives of the seven largest webscale companies in the world, known as the Super 7, which includes Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Baidu, Facebook, Microsoft and Tencent. The report provides a market assessment, deep dives into company strategies and analyzes capex trends, particularly as they pertain to ICT. Vendors are also covered from the perspective of relative opportunities with webscale companies as customers.

For additional information about this research or to arrange a one-on-one analyst briefing, please contact Dan Demers at +1 603.758.1803 or [email protected].

ABOUT TBR

Technology Business Research, Inc. is a leading independent technology market research and consulting firm specializing in the business and financial analyses of hardware, software, professional services, and telecom vendors and operators. Serving a global clientele, TBR provides timely and actionable market research and business intelligence in a format that is uniquely tailored to clients’ needs. Our analysts are available to address client-specific issues further or information needs on an inquiry or proprietary consulting basis.

TBR has been empowering corporate decision makers since 1996. For more information please visit www.tbri.com.

Earnings recap: Amazon, Microsoft and Google grow fast and keep hold on the market — for now

Although the market is consolidating around AWS, Microsoft Azure and GCP, the trailing vendors are unable to match AWS’ quarterly revenue gains

Consolidation is occurring across cloud segments, with the most notable convergence occurring around the five leading PaaS and IaaS players, blending the lines between PaaS and IaaS. Customers and applications vendors are flocking to the leading players Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform (GCP). This is evidenced by these three vendors collectively growing 58% year-to-year in 2Q18, while the total PaaS and IaaS market is expected to grow only 16% year-to-year in 2018. This consolidation is helping the largest players continually capture greater market share and, as a result, largely dictate the growth of the PaaS and IaaS markets.

With the leading vendors’ CY2Q18 earnings results now public, it is clear that AWS continues to rule the PaaS and IaaS spaces, sitting at almost three times the size of second-place Microsoft Azure and sustaining greater quarterly revenue additions. Google sits in third place in mindshare for many customers, but trails AWS and Microsoft Azure in revenue by a large margin. These three vendors face increasing competition from Alibaba, which continues to expand its global reach, and IBM, which has seen more success in private cloud and hybrid IT.

AWS maintains its public cloud lead through continuous innovation, but faces growing opposition as new and existing competition strengthens

AWS accelerated revenue growth for the third consecutive quarter in 2Q18, up 48.9% year-to-year to $6.1 billion, further extending its lead in PaaS and IaaS. AWS’ position as the far-and-away market leader causes the competition to fiercely innovate and expand to challenge the vendor. However, AWS’ mindshare has been secured, and paired with its portfolio breadth, innovation pace and global availability, inserts the vendor into the bulk of customer and partner evaluations. AWS’ determination to innovate with and ahead of customer needs continues to drive service and feature releases, aimed at winning new workloads without compromising profits. Halfway through 2018, AWS has released 800 new services and features, an accelerated pace of service innovation from 2017’s record level.

Microsoft Azure continues its fast-paced growth, but will remain behind AWS in revenue for the foreseeable future

Microsoft’s Commercial Cloud revenue, which includes public cloud and private cloud versions of Office 365 commercial, Dynamics 365 and Azure, approached $6.9 billion as Microsoft nearly doubled the number of Azure agreements worth $10 million or more over the last year. Azure revenue grew 89% year-to-year to $2.2 billion in 2Q18.

Microsoft’s combination of traditional software, public cloud and on-premises private cloud positions the company to be the backbone of customers’ hybrid environments — a label few competitors, especially AWS and Google, can claim. As such, Microsoft is uniquely positioned to help customers extract the value from their integrated data and has put itself at the forefront of innovation and commercialization of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT) to capitalize on this leading position.

Google will be unable to retain its third-place position as it fights to shift market perception and fend off strengthening competition

Relative to AWS and Microsoft Azure, GCP is far behind in the PaaS and IaaS space but is trying to prove to customers that it is as enterprise-ready as its main competitors. As Google solidifies its cloud portfolio and builds out key offerings, the company has also prioritized improving its large enterprise go-to-market efforts under its One Google strategy. Google Cloud, which consists of G Suite and GCP, increased revenue by an estimated 56% year-to-year, nearly reaching $1.42 billion. TBR expects Google Cloud revenue will increase to $1.6 billion in 3Q18 as the vendor continues to execute its One Google strategy.

While Google is investing in its go-to-market activities and shows progress through growth, its overall reputation in the market has been slow to adapt from consumer-grade to enterprise-ready. To combat that market perception, Google Cloud focuses its innovation on mastering four areas of expertise: machine learning and analytics, security, application developer tools, and connected business platforms. Recent investments in hybrid enablement and improved rendering capabilities demonstrate Google’s ongoing commitment to becoming a leading cloud vendor in differentiated areas of high-growth opportunity. While Google will succeed in these discrete areas, TBR expects Alibaba to emerge as the third-place general-purpose PaaS and IaaS provider.

Hybrid, multicloud, reunited partners featured in TBR’s upcoming cloud & software research

Going into the second half of 2018, TBR’s Cloud and Software Practice anticipates providing additional research around a few issues that have been top of mind among TBR’s clients and our analysts. The common theme across the three issues highlighted in this report is the growing focus on how cloud and software are jointly being used to deliver real solutions for customers. Highlights of the research center on how establishing hybrid capabilities is a primary challenge for enterprises and a growth driver for vendors, from the initial design and integration through to the ongoing management and optimization of the increasingly complex environments. Additionally, offering multicloud is the first priority for customers and creates opportunities for vendors other than category leaders such as Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Salesforce. Lastly, partnerships that were previously threatened by cloud are now realigning for new opportunities created by on-premises hybrid delivery and solution bundling. Look for more insight into these topics in our upcoming research.

Hybrid enablement is an increasingly critical predictor of vendor success
There is no question that cloud and software solutions are being increasingly deployed into hybrid environments and have been for some time now. The real customer pain point in regard to a truly hybrid environment — one or more cloud assets integrated with one or more on-premises assets for the seamless flow and sharing of data — is around enabling each of the solutions to fit into the environment and integrate with the others for optimal utilization.

Cloud and software vendors alike are investing to capitalize on this growing opportunity around empowering enterprise IT departments to integrate sprawling environments on their own, with the help of automated tools and platforms. Salesforce’s acquisition of MuleSoft is one of the more noteworthy examples as it has vast implications for both Salesforce and the market. This is because MuleSoft offers licenses alongside its subscription offerings despite Salesforce’s “No software” mantra, and because many organizations utilize one or more of Salesforce’s cloud offerings, which will soon feature and/or be integrated with Salesforce Integration Cloud, a solution that will be based on MuleSoft’s well-known Integration Platform as a Service (iPaaS).

Software vendors are making similar investments, such as Red Hat announcing its own iPaaS — Fuse Online — and VMware’s continued updates to the vRealize cloud management suite. Additionally, many continue to expand their partnerships with cloud vendors and systems integrators to improve their hybrid technology and hybrid enablement portfolios, increasingly going to market with a software-led services approach.
Cloud brokerage and hybrid integration pure plays continue to generate buzz as well, providing attractive solutions for enterprise IT departments struggling to keep pace with integrations, orchestration and skill sets. We expect some of these vendors to be acquired over the next couple of years as cloud and software vendors look to quickly build out their hybrid integration and enablement tool sets.

Consolidation around leading PaaS & IaaS vendors does not reduce competition
The public cloud IaaS market, substantially made up of businesses that complement scalable infrastructure with general purpose PaaS, has consolidated around the four leading U.S.-based cloud vendors — AWS, Microsoft, IBM and Google — and one international vendor, Alibaba, which has been successful in the highly exclusive Chinese market and is diligently focused on effectively competing with these U.S.-based vendors on an international stage.

Among the insights gleaned from TBR’s upcoming Cloud Infrastructure & Platforms Customer Research, it is becoming evident that even in discrete use cases and niche industries, the general-purpose nature of these vendors has enabled them to be considered across needs. Many customers agree that there is a delicate equilibrium yet to be found in first balancing on-premises and cloud deployments, and then balancing vendor lock-in concerns, usage volume discounts, vendor specializations and multivendor environment complexity. TBR will closely watch and assess how each vendor overcomes its perceived downfalls and positions itself to help customers best weigh the benefits and drawbacks of increasing cloud adoption.

In particular, customers almost universally recognize Google Cloud as the third option behind AWS and Microsoft Azure, citing TensorFlow as a key technology that will drive Google’s growth into a more prominent cloud vendor, but in the same breath identify that Google’s enterprise vision has not matured from “talk the talk,” particularly outside of the executive office of Google Cloud CEO Diane Greene. Meanwhile, Azure has become a viable alternative to AWS for many customers that note general ubiquity in each vendor’s ability to support various enterprise needs. TBR expects the closeness in AWS and Azure functionality, strained by the maturation of Google’s enterprise vision and Alibaba’s increasingly competitive entry into Western markets, will cause the converging market to grow quickly around this competition.

Partnerships are being both stressed and created as the cloud market evolves
The increased focus on cloud delivery methods has certainly stressed many long-held partnerships between traditional hardware, software and service vendors. The model of solution creation, distribution, installation and support was one that had multiple participants in the traditional model but became more focused on the cloud provider in the transition to cloud. Cloud is also an opportunity for new or nascent vendors to take share in markets such as business applications, where SAP and Oracle have been dominant. SaaS vendors fill portfolio gaps and augment vendor offerings for verticalized use cases, enabling legacy players such as Microsoft and SAP to adapt and compete with born-on-the-cloud providers. An example of this shift in vendor landscapes comes with the release of Dynamics 365 Business Central, which will help Microsoft gain footing over SAP in the SMB space for business applications and provide new opportunity for Microsoft’s SaaS partners. However, as each vendor expands its cloud portfolio, its respective ecosystem will be required to adapt. SAP’s acquisition of CallidusCloud will improve the vendor’s position in the cloud front-office space, but it also places SAP in direct competition with its ecosystem of Configure, Price, Quote (CPQ) providers. Now more than ever, the market will see vendor shares susceptible to ongoing changes as the market for core business applications remains relatively immature for cloud.

Hardware and services partners were previously hard hit in the transition to cloud but will have more opportunities with a growing mix of public and private cloud options becoming available. Microsoft will continue to leverage hardware and services partners to deliver and implement its hosted private cloud, Azure Stack, which has already doubled its geographical reach in recent months. This new opportunity for longstanding hardware partners such as Dell EMC and Hewlett Packard Enterprise to collaborate in delivering Microsoft’s Azure Stack offering does little to offset the erosion those vendors have seen as Microsoft built out its own Azure public cloud offerings, reducing customer demand for hardware.

Note: TBR provides extensive, sustained coverage of the strategies and select performance metrics of all the vendors mentioned above, as well as their competitors and key technology partners. Contact the authors for additional details.

By Allan Krans, Practice Manager and Principal Analyst; Cassandra Mooshian, Senior Analyst; Meaghan McGrath, Senior Analyst; and Jack McElwee, Research Analyst